Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More extremely concerning footage coming in from Bakhmut.

Video shows UA dugout positions completely annihilated, at least 20+ KIA visible on the spot. Unknown POW & wounded.

It seems they came under very heavy fire & sought shelters in the trenches and a large dugout room before falling to artillery & maybe encirclement.

Video is uncensored & paired with very unfitting music, so I won't post it here.

It's getting harder and harder to see Ukraine still holding on Bakhmut at the end of the month.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's a reason they jokingly call the Geneva Conventions the "Geneva Suggestions".
If Russia wants Ukraine to respect POWs on their side well, they would be well advised to do the same.

To be fair, war has become somewhat more "humane", since for example, we haven't really seen widespread use of chemical weapons in the past decades.

Also, POW exchange lines seem open between RU & UA, and there is little to suggest either side is top-down ordering executions of POWs. This is obviously in stark contrast to Germany vs SSSR.

We have had a few UA (mostly the groups who like right hand stretching exercises, not regulars) kneecappings & executions & also a few similar videos from RU units, but so far, thankfully these have been exceptions & isolated cases.

Ah. That is good to hear. Not as bad as I imagined.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1632803371005476868?s=20

[All Along The Watchtower]

What has happened over the past year should permanently destroy the reputations and careers of a lot of people who insisted that “Putin would never do such a thing, and even if he did what about NATO expansion”, etc.

Alas, it won’t.

[Omega21]

There's a reason they jokingly call the Geneva Conventions the "Geneva Suggestions".
If Russia wants Ukraine to respect POWs on their side well, they would be well advised to do the same.

To be fair, war has become somewhat more "humane", since for example, we haven't really seen widespread use of chemical weapons in the past decades.

Also, POW exchange lines seem open between RU & UA, and there is little to suggest either side is top-down ordering executions of POWs. This is obviously in stark contrast to Germany vs SSSR.

We have had a few UA (mostly the groups who like right hand stretching exercises, not regulars) kneecappings & executions & also a few similar videos from RU units, but so far, thankfully these have been exceptions & isolated cases.

Ah. That is good to hear. Not as bad as I imagined.

Yeah, that's at least one of the tiny silver linings of this conflict.

We don't really have to rely on "Russians have a good heart, so they won't execute POWs", as there are other, purely self-serving motives at play.

The current Russian strategy reflects the fact they understand total victory, i.e. UA capitulation is out of the question, so the next best thing is grinding UA down and eking out a settlement that is a moderate "win".

POWs are very valuable "chips" in this case, so ordering your men not to take them makes very little sense.

[Woody]

The cameraman says at the start "I'm filming already", and the Ukrainian soldier answers without hesitation "Slava Ukraini" - Glory to Ukraine. Right before he gets executed the cameran answers "you're a bit-" and then gunshots before he gets to finish his sentence.

After executing him the other soldier says "What f..cking 'Slava Ukraini'? And the cameraman says "die, b*tch"

From the looks of it, I think (my speculation) the Russians were abusing that soldier and planning to make him say some degrading phrases in front of the camera (hence "I'm filming already" to let him know it's time to repeat what they wanted him to say) probably something along the lines of "Slava Rossiya" or 'Akhmat Sila'.

Then, being the power tripping psychotic cowards they are, shot him after getting their feelings hurt.

[Woody]

Either that or the Russians planned on murdering him from the get go (the "I'm filming already" is a go ahead to his friends that it's time to murder him), and that soldier managed to sneak in 'glory to Ukraine' as his last words, right before his execution.

[Torie]

I like the theory of what happened but still don’t have a clue how it hit the nets unless there was a anti Putin mole in the Russian food chain on this one. It’s really bad, bad PR for Putin’s cause.

[Omega21]

I like the theory of what happened but still don’t have a clue how it hit the nets unless there was a anti Putin mole in the Russian food chain on this one. It’s really bad, bad or for Putin’s cause.

Russian soldier records video > posts in private RU soldier groups (as is often the case) > UA searches phones of a captured or KIA RU soldier & finds video.

UA intelligence then saves the video for a "rainy day". (There are indications the video was released by the SBU or similar org)

Ukraine is currently in a difficult position now around Bakhmut, so releasing it now provides somewhat of a distraction, whilst helping boost the message abroad for continued support.

Does not seem very farfetched if we think about it like that.

[Storr]

A map giving a good overview of what the Russians are trying to do in the Marinka and Vuhledar areas. Green lines are railways. The north-south green line on the right part of the map is the railway from Mariupol to Donetsk. Because it is in range of Ukrainian artillery, and the route across the Crimean bridge via Melitopol is very circuitous (literally going the long way around the Sea of Azov), the Russians have been forced to use trucks (and to a lesser extent ships) to resupply troops in the Mariupol area since they destroyed and captured the city last year.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1632833096843403264?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

The good news at least is in the year 2023 it’s going to be hard for these bastards to hide and they’ll likely suffer the same fate as the Bucha butchers

[Virginiá]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1632870898997886978

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1632870898997886978

Again even if the total casualties are true which are believable, the current casualties under current supply lines and firing angles for the Russian soldiers are not 5:1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1632870898997886978

If those numbers are accurate, then Ukraine could very likely have a decent chance at being net tactical winners from Bakhmut when all is said and done.
Ukraine's biggest problem might well be replacing their losses. Things like this help keep them in the game.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1632870898997886978

Again even if the total casualties are true which are believable, the current casualties under current supply lines and firing angles for the Russian soldiers are not true.

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee visited Bakhmut in the last week and they agree with this position. Neil Hauer's analysis tends towards the pessimistic in my opinion, but he's not a bad reporter and claims the recent casualty ratio (as of a few days ago) had fallen to "almost" 1:1.

This is still technically favourable to Ukraine, so the propagandists aren't outright lying in this case - but it's much worse than what they usually seem to get and probably bad considering the difference in population sizes.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1632870898997886978

Again even if the total casualties are true which are believable, the current casualties under current supply lines and firing angles for the Russian soldiers are not true.

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee visited Bakhmut in the last week and they agree with this position. Neil Hauer's analysis tends towards the pessimistic in my opinion, but he's not a bad reporter and claims the recent casualty ratio (as of a few days ago) had fallen to "almost" 1:1.

This is still technically favourable to Ukraine, so the propagandists aren't outright lying in this case - but it's much worse than what they usually seem to get and probably bad considering the difference in population sizes.

But at the same time Ukraine’s high command sees something that is convincing them to stay and fight even with Russia advances

[Storr]

I saw an article a while back about Ukraine's already dire demographic problems being worsened by the war. At least it's the same for Russia:

"The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it had been in the months of Hitler’s occupation. And because so many men of fighting age are dead [treated by Putin like cannon fodder] or in exile, women outnumber men by at least 10 million."

https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1632831892125827073?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1632844497666166787?s=20

[Storr]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

Sorry, what video?

Censored version & thread below (pro Ru source)

His face is clearly on the video, so the victim will be identified soon. That being said, I am already 90% of the opinion this is a genuine war crime, and not a UA psyop.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1632736840607211521

As you'd expect, Ukrainians are rallying around the final words of the (at the moment) unidentified murdered POW:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632846424780988416?s=20

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632818452212641793?s=20

[Torie]

I do think Putin has a long view, and saw the window of opportunity to consummate his demonic vision closing and closing rapidly. Why? Due to his perceived Russian demographic implosion. You see, for quite a long time now Russia's stagnant population was sustained by net immigration, presumably from the former Soviet Republics. Now what? Net immigration is negative, and who in their right mind would want to move there to mitigate much less offset the outflow of "draft dodgers," the fertility  rate is 1.2,  and so, it appears that Putin's Hail Mary pass was intercepted, and the ball run back into his own end zone. Too bad that to complete the metaphor, those tackled are dead bodies surrounded by destruction.

https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm

[Middle-aged Europe]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

Sorry, what video?

Censored version & thread below (pro Ru source)

His face is clearly on the video, so the victim will be identified soon. That being said, I am already 90% of the opinion this is a genuine war crime, and not a UA psyop.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1632736840607211521

As you'd expect, Ukrainians are rallying around the final words of the (at the moment) unidentified murdered POW:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632846424780988416?s=20

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632818452212641793?s=20

This year's "Russian warship, go f**k yourself" moment, I presume.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

Sorry, what video?

Censored version & thread below (pro Ru source)

His face is clearly on the video, so the victim will be identified soon. That being said, I am already 90% of the opinion this is a genuine war crime, and not a UA psyop.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1632736840607211521

As you'd expect, Ukrainians are rallying around the final words of the (at the moment) unidentified murdered POW:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632846424780988416?s=20
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632818452212641793?s=20

This year's "Russian warship, go f**k yourself" moment, I presume.

Not a bad comparison.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

Sorry, what video?

Censored version & thread below (pro Ru source)

His face is clearly on the video, so the victim will be identified soon. That being said, I am already 90% of the opinion this is a genuine war crime, and not a UA psyop.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1632736840607211521

As you'd expect, Ukrainians are rallying around the final words of the (at the moment) unidentified murdered POW:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632846424780988416?s=20
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632818452212641793?s=20

This year's "Russian warship, go f**k yourself" moment, I presume.

Not a bad comparison.

Just like Bakhmut is this year's Mariupol, I presume.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

Sorry, what video?

Censored version & thread below (pro Ru source)

His face is clearly on the video, so the victim will be identified soon. That being said, I am already 90% of the opinion this is a genuine war crime, and not a UA psyop.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1632736840607211521

As you'd expect, Ukrainians are rallying around the final words of the (at the moment) unidentified murdered POW:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632846424780988416?s=20
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632818452212641793?s=20

This year's "Russian warship, go f**k yourself" moment, I presume.

Not a bad comparison.

Just like Bakhmut is this year's Mariupol, I presume.

Certainly seems that way.
We shall see what 2023 holds, of course. It's possible there will be bigger things that come along.

[Storr]

How did that video get into Ukrainian hands?

Sorry, what video?

Censored version & thread below (pro Ru source)

His face is clearly on the video, so the victim will be identified soon. That being said, I am already 90% of the opinion this is a genuine war crime, and not a UA psyop.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1632736840607211521

As you'd expect, Ukrainians are rallying around the final words of the (at the moment) unidentified murdered POW:

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632846424780988416?s=20
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632818452212641793?s=20

This year's "Russian warship, go f**k yourself" moment, I presume.

Not a bad comparison.

Just like Bakhmut is this year's Mariupol, I presume.

Bakhmut could definitely become this year's Mariupol if Ukrainian forces get surrounded. This is especially from a military perspective. I suppose it's a tiny silver lining that it has taken 8+ months for Russia to get close to surrounding Bakhmut, while Mariupol was surrounded in four days.

It feels callous to say, but from a civilian casualty perspective at least Bakhmut is a much smaller city than Mariupol. (Estimated 2021 populations 72,000 vs. 432,000.) In addition, Ukraine has had 8 months to evacuate civilians from Bakhmut, which was more than enough time to evacuate all civilians who were willing/able to leave. Meanwhile in Mariupol, there was basically no time to evacuate civilians.