Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Georgia...

Facing mounting pressure from protesters, Georgia’s governing party said in a statement on Thursday that it had decided to withdraw proposed legislation on “foreign agents” that critics said mimicked a Russian law used by the Kremlin to thwart opposition news media outlets and civil society.

The decision came after a second straight night of large protests in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, with riot police officers using tear gas, water cannons and stun grenades to disperse a crowd after midnight. In a statement on Thursday, the police said they had detained 133 protesters on charges of petty hooliganism and disobedience during the two days of protests.

Members of the Georgian opposition said the law was modeled on a similar piece of legislation introduced in 2012 in Russia aimed at pressuring civil society and pro-Western news media outlets. Protesters on the streets chanted, “No to the Russian law,” during the two nights of protests.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/world/europe/georgia-protests-bill.html

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/mccarthy-refuses-zelenskyys-invitation-to-visit-ukraine-2023-3

"McCarthy refuses Zelenskyy's invitation to visit Kyiv, reiterating that he's against 'blank checks' for Ukraine"

[Woody]

81 missiles launched. Ukraine claims it shot down 34 of them.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1633777954466455553
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1633689705291055104
https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1633784045350912000
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1633640039161659394

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Bodbe6/status/1633624483419287552
https://twitter.com/sumnjam/status/1633598273394036737
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1633468295742382084
https://twitter.com/UKRWarSitRep/status/1633364058182152192

[jaichind]

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-733806/amp

"Russia has sufficient resources to wage war in Ukraine for two years - Lithuanian intelligence"

[CumbrianLefty]

New theory: It was a Russian false flag to frame Ukraine.

That theory is hardly "new".

Oh, and 20k posts

[jaichind]

New theory: It was a Russian false flag to frame Ukraine.

That theory is hardly "new".

Oh, and 20k posts

Previous incarnations of this theory tend to be Russian false flags to frame USA or Germany or Norway.  I could very well be wrong on this.

[Sir Mohamed]

New theory: It was a Russian false flag to frame Ukraine.

That theory is hardly "new".

Oh, and 20k posts

The thread is almost certainly going to break 1k pages.

[jaichind]

From Daily Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11827765/Are-sanctions-REALLY-wrecking-life-Russia-British-supermarkets-ration-eggs-vegetables.html

"Are sanctions REALLY wrecking life in Russia? As British supermarkets ration eggs and vegetables - thanks in part to Putin's war in Ukraine - shelves in a provincial Russian city are groaning under piles of fresh food, writes SUE REID"

[jaichind]

My understanding of why EU payments for Russian gas surged in 2022 is that historically EU countries refuse to sign long-term contracts with Russia for gas at a fixed price and instead insist on paying spot prices.  So when spot prices surged in 2022 even though the EU reduced the amount of gas they got from Russia they had to pay more.

[Woody]

Northwest of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/UnerkanntW/status/1633857502755553288
https://twitter.com/skadefron/status/1633855294097838083

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1633765056490897410

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/05/ukraine-pilots-f-16s-00085556

"2 Ukrainian pilots are in U.S. to determine fighter jet skills"

It seems the Ukrainian pilots training in USA are not for F-16 but to test out their ability to fly MIGs armed with USA made missiles.   That would make sense.  It would take years to train someone to use F-16 in combat conditions.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ReggieMeezer/status/1633675961953599494

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Behind-Ukraine-peace-proposal-China-foresees-end-to-war-in-summer

"Behind Ukraine peace proposal, China foresees end to war in summer"

PRC's AMS simulation of the war has it ending in the Summer of 2023 with Russia with upper hand but both sides exhausted

In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said

[Person Man]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Behind-Ukraine-peace-proposal-China-foresees-end-to-war-in-summer

"Behind Ukraine peace proposal, China foresees end to war in summer"

PRC's AMS simulation of the war has it ending in the Summer of 2023 with Russia with upper hand but both sides exhausted

In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said

Whatever happened to Russia economy being shored up?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1633936418199175171
https://twitter.com/troy_dalio/status/1633886699850743820
https://twitter.com/GoldenR_Fella/status/1633942396437254145
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1633808439846510594

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Behind-Ukraine-peace-proposal-China-foresees-end-to-war-in-summer

"Behind Ukraine peace proposal, China foresees end to war in summer"

PRC's AMS simulation of the war has it ending in the Summer of 2023 with Russia with upper hand but both sides exhausted

In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said

Whatever happened to Russia economy being shored up?

I have no idea. They might know something I do not know.  I generally disagree with this assessment.  I think that the staying power of both sides is very underestimated, assuming the military and economic aid from the collective West to Ukraine continues of course.  I do not see any physical constraints to this war going on for another couple of years.

[Woody]

If Ukraine realistically is going to remotely have a  "win" this war, it isn't going to be a couple dozen tanks. Those small brigades they are getting now are laughable and are going to burn out quick and have no effect on the war.

It needs full commitment from the West with establishing more air power, which takes a very long time - several modern western fighter jets, anti-air...

..and most importantly: Long range missiles - and I am talking about those that can go for several thousand kilometers, which is going to have to be used to strike bases, facilities and infrastructure deep into Western Russia (which NATO will never go along with, as that is reaching escalation territory).

All of the above is going to require full NATO/Western initiative burning through their arsenals along with other ground equipment, and complete carte blanche to use their weapons on wherever they please. Even through all this, it's not even sure they would return to pre-2022 borders.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-09-23/index.html

Russia launched a total of 84 missiles over the last 24 hours, and Ukraine's air defenses intercepted 34 of them, the Ukrainian military said in a Thursday evening update.

An additional eight missiles in the assault did not reach their targets, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"The enemy also carried out 12 air strikes, in particular, using 8 Shahed-136 UAVs," the General Staff said, referring to Iranian-made attack drones. "Half of them were shot down."

Ukraine's claims on how many Russian missiles it is shooting down have been dropping over the last few months.  Part of it seems to be Kinzhal hypersonic missiles which are not interceptable but beyond that the Ukraine claimed intercept rate has been falling over time.

[GeneralMacArthur]

70% of this 800-page thread is just the two pro-Russia posters talking to each other via Tweet embeds from pro-Russia accounts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New theory: It was a Russian false flag to frame Ukraine.

That theory is hardly "new".

Oh, and 20k posts

The thread is almost certainly going to break 1k pages.

It very, very likely will.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From Daily Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11827765/Are-sanctions-REALLY-wrecking-life-Russia-British-supermarkets-ration-eggs-vegetables.html

"Are sanctions REALLY wrecking life in Russia? As British supermarkets ration eggs and vegetables - thanks in part to Putin's war in Ukraine - shelves in a provincial Russian city are groaning under piles of fresh food, writes SUE REID"

Nice to see Russians aren't starving.

[Virginiá]

Ukraine's claims on how many Russian missiles it is shooting down have been dropping over the last few months.  Part of it seems to be Kinzhal hypersonic missiles which are not interceptable but beyond that the Ukraine claimed intercept rate has been falling over time.

This is the breakdown of missiles launched, not including a handful of drones:

    28 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-launched cruise missile launches;
    20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missile launches;
    6 Kh-22 air-launched cruise missile launches;
    6 Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched cruise missile launches;
    8 guided air missile launches: 2 – Kh-31P, 6 – Kh-59;
    13 S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile launches.

The S-300, Kh-22 and Kh-47 missiles move too fast to be intercepted by Ukraine's current air defenses, although the Kh-22 is a repurposed anti-ship missile with poor accuracy, and the S-300 was also never designed to hit ground targets and isn't particularly accurate itself. So that is more like 25 missiles that Ukraine doesn't have defenses against. The reported success ratio against the other missiles is about 60% - 70%, so yea that is lower, but a higher ratio than your post implies. The regions where Russia targets these also matters. They don't all have the same levels of AD protection due to a scarcity of capable systems - for now, anyway.

[RFK 2024]

If Ukraine realistically is going to remotely have a  "win" this war, it isn't going to be a couple dozen tanks. Those small brigades they are getting now are laughable and are going to burn out quick and have no effect on the war.

It needs full commitment from the West with establishing more air power, which takes a very long time - several modern western fighter jets, anti-air...

..and most importantly: Long range missiles - and I am talking about those that can go for several thousand kilometers, which is going to have to be used to strike bases, facilities and infrastructure deep into Western Russia (which NATO will never go along with, as that is reaching escalation territory).

All of the above is going to require full NATO/Western initiative burning through their arsenals along with other ground equipment, and complete carte blanche to use their weapons on wherever they please. Even through all this, it's not even sure they would return to pre-2022 borders.

I'm not an IR scholar, but I think there's reason to worry that the West is stuck between a rock and a bad place here.  Too much involvement and Russia will perceive our actions as a more critical threat if not justification to declare war.  Too little and we are ignoring the numerous atrocities occurring in regions occupied by Russia.  A brokered peace convention where both sides concede on some points is probably the quickest way to at least temporarily end the violence - let's say Russia gets to keep Crimea, a demilitarized zone is set up near the border, and Ukraine joins NATO.  But I feel a lot of people really want this war to continue.  This is not only costing billions but also taking 100,000+ lives.  What's the motivation for continuing to prop up this war?  Ukraine is not going to win on its own, like you said, and the last thing we need is a WW3-like conflict where boots are on the ground and Russia, already having gone rogue for the past year, declares war with the NATO alliance.