Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

It really is a banger, tbh:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1631157540695203841?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1631379082234437650?s=20

[dead0man]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Nobody said that.

Anyways, I think it's okay to make predictions at this stage, as most of the roads leading to the city is under fire control or soon under Wagner control. Likely Bakhmut will fall around mid-February. Safe to say the AFU will withdraw next month to other lines.

now maybe mid March?  Remember, they started attacking the city in August.  What is the exact opposite of a blitzkrieg?  langsamerlrieg?  Or maybe Krieg, wie er von einem geistig Behinderten geführt wird ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

A good metaphorical opposite of "Blitzkrieg" in German could be "Schneckenkrieg" - "snail war". Hopefully, I will get royalties for coining this term, now. ;-)

[Storr]

Personally, I doubt he was a traitor. Ihor Kolykhaev was arrested by the FSB last June and was seen by multiple people in prison. He was last seen in October, still being held by the Russians, before Kherson was liberated in early November. I highly doubt the Russians would keep a high-profile collaborator in captivity, since doing so would only discourage other people from collaborating.

""Many city residents consider the 52-year-old former mayor a hero for staying put even as much of the political and security establishment fled in the opening days of the war."

...

“Everyone abandoned the city,” she said. “There was no one from the leadership left. He was the only one who stayed.”"

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1631520274569994241?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1631569356810272770?cxt=HHwWhIC2sfDrv6QtA...
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1631567054112190464

[Woody]

Prigozhin claims Bakhmut is now "practically under encirclement"

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1631412839880568834
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1631427694070988803
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1631428294192119809
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1631565497354387456

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1631582786350923778?s=20

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1631588229961990145?s=20

[Middle-aged Europe]

Figuring that they are useless in the neutral country these days, Germany plans to buy 96 "Leopard 2" tanks back from Switzerland. The are intended for countries who are giving tanks to Ukraine.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1631561110787588097

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1631588229961990145

Geoloc:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1631588294831087618?cxt=HHwWhIC90Zu6yKQtAAA...

So yeah. Those who are still in Bakhmut, have to pass through open fields towards Ivanivkse when (or if) withdrawal happens.

[dead0man]

any month now!  (just like for the last 6 months)

[Woody]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Nobody said that.

Anyways, I think it's okay to make predictions at this stage, as most of the roads leading to the city is under fire control or soon under Wagner control. Likely Bakhmut will fall around mid-February. Safe to say the AFU will withdraw next month to other lines.

now maybe mid March?  Remember, they started attacking the city in August.  What is the exact opposite of a blitzkrieg?  langsamerlrieg?  Or maybe Krieg, wie er von einem geistig Behinderten geführt wird ?

Uhm, is this supposed to be an own? You do realize that was based on Ukraine withdrawing (common sense) after their flanks were exposed to save their own guys lives? That I was wrong is actually bad for the Ukrainians stationed there.

The fact they didn't leave the city and they're are still in the city is not good, that's the point. There are guys there right now who are dying for no reason, when they could be retreated to much safer Chasiv Yar.

After Paraskoviivka fell the advantages of holding Bakhmut was gone.

[Woody]

any month now!  (just like for the last 6 months)

Please bring up a quote from before January from anybody that predicted Bakhmut was going to fall anytime soon.

[dead0man]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Nobody said that.

Anyways, I think it's okay to make predictions at this stage, as most of the roads leading to the city is under fire control or soon under Wagner control. Likely Bakhmut will fall around mid-February. Safe to say the AFU will withdraw next month to other lines.

now maybe mid March?  Remember, they started attacking the city in August.  What is the exact opposite of a blitzkrieg?  langsamerlrieg?  Or maybe Krieg, wie er von einem geistig Behinderten geführt wird ?

Uhm, is this supposed to be an own? You do realize that was based on Ukraine withdrawing (common sense) after their flanks were exposed to save their own guys lives? That I was wrong is actually bad for the Ukrainians stationed there.

The fact they didn't leave the city and they're are still in the city is not good, that's the point. There are guys there right now who are dying for no reason, when they could be retreated to much safer Chasiv Yar.

After Paraskoviivka fell the advantages of holding Bakhmut was gone.

maybe


and maybe the professionals military people in Ukraine (and the military professionals from the West advising them) have a different opinion.  Perhaps there are facts on the ground you (and I) are not aware of.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Nobody said that.

Anyways, I think it's okay to make predictions at this stage, as most of the roads leading to the city is under fire control or soon under Wagner control. Likely Bakhmut will fall around mid-February. Safe to say the AFU will withdraw next month to other lines.

now maybe mid March?  Remember, they started attacking the city in August.  What is the exact opposite of a blitzkrieg?  langsamerlrieg?  Or maybe Krieg, wie er von einem geistig Behinderten geführt wird ?

Uhm, is this supposed to be an own? You do realize that was based on Ukraine withdrawing (common sense) after their flanks were exposed to save their own guys lives? That I was wrong is actually bad for the Ukrainians stationed there.

The fact they didn't leave the city and they're are still in the city is not good, that's the point. There are guys there right now who are dying for no reason, when they could be retreated to much safer Chasiv Yar.

After Paraskoviivka fell the advantages of holding Bakhmut was gone.

maybe

and maybe the professionals military people in Ukraine (and the military professionals from the West advising them) have a different opinion.  Perhaps there are facts on the ground you (and I) are not aware of.

It isn't guaranteed this is true or that these two groups are in agreement.

Military leadership is (understandably!) subject to political interference and high-ranking generals in any army are arguably powerful politicians in their own right. They may not be making what they recognise to be the most tactically sound move for one reason or another.

Additionally, a lot of Ukrainian generals who were laid off or retired after the post-2014 reforms have likely returned to service as the army has expanded and casualties have been taken. These guys may be more likely to share the approaches of their Russian counterparts (many of whom studied in the same Soviet academies) than their Western allies.

The fog of war is thick and armchair generals are more often wrong than the people invested with the power to make difficult calls, but I would rather listen to the assessments of a select few trustworthy analysts than assume that what the generals are doing is right.

[jaichind]

My theories of the Ukraine strategy are

a) Ukraine is not confident of its defenses to the West of Bakhmut and is running into ammunition supply problems. Trying to hold on to Bakhmut at least means using less ammunition as their positions are fortified.  Doing so buys time to fortify positions West of Bakhmut and the collective West to rush in more ammunition.

b) A variation of the old Napoleonic manoeuvre sur les derrie`res where you place a force behind enemy lines that the enemy converges on.  This reduces uncertainty about enemy dispositions and makes it easier for a counterstrike on the enemy forces.    The Chinese name for this tactic is 中心開花 (flower blossoming within the enemy heart).  This is not easy to full off.  The famous 孟良崮戰役 (Battle of Menglianggu) in 1947 was an attempt by ROC armed forces to pull this off against the PLA and ended in disaster.  A genius like Napoleon has managed to pull this off on a few occasions. During the Gallic Wars Vercingetorix tried to pull off a variation of this against the Romans in the Battle of Alesia but unfortunately, he was unlucky enough to face Julius Caesar and it ended in disaster.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My theories of the Ukraine strategy are

a) Ukraine is not confident of its defenses to the West of Bakhmut and is running into ammunition supply problems. Trying to hold on to Bakhmut at least means using less ammunition as their positions are fortified.  Doing so buys time to fortify positions West of Bakhmut and the collective West to rush in more ammunition.

b) A variation of the old Napoleonic manoeuvre sur les derrie`res where you place a force behind enemy lines that the enemy converges on.  This reduces uncertainty about enemy dispositions and makes it easier for a counterstrike on the enemy forces.    The Chinese name for this tactic is 中心開花 (flower blossoming within the enemy heart).  This is not easy to full off.  The famous 孟良崮戰役 (Battle of Menglianggu) in 1947 was an attempt by ROC armed forces to pull this off against the PLA and ended in disaster.  A genius like Napoleon has managed to pull this off on a few occasions. During the Gallic Wars Vercingetorix tried to pull off a variation of this against the Romans in the Battle of Alesia but unfortunately, he was unlucky enough to face Julius Caesar and it ended in disaster.

I also wonder if they might be holding on to Bakhmut in order to boost morale.

[Woody]

Interesting place to watch after Bakhmut: Kupyansk front.

While in general we see the Russian attacking army adhering to Soviet doctrine, throwing men and losing heavy armor in places like Avdiivka and Vuhledar - whatever commander in charge of the forces in the Kupyansk seems to be going for more Western/Ukrainian style doctrine, actually not a dumbass compared to his other peers.

The forces up there have been patient, probing through the Oskil' river and checking for weakpoints, testing with recon, never going for mass-assaults and wasting dozens of vehicles, taking it slow and wearing down the AFU. Attacks there are usually heavy artillery it's soldiers are reliant on mortars than other fronts (with the exception of Bakhmut). They also know when to avoid weakpoints, despite the AFU leaving some settlements ('Hryanykivka').

Their goals will be Dvorichna and Kupyansk.

[jaichind]

I also wonder if they might be holding on to Bakhmut in order to boost morale.

That is very possible and potentially likely.  That would not be a wise move to base military strategy on domestic or foreign PR needs.  I am trying to give the Ukraine high command the benefit of the doubt.

[CumbrianLefty]

My point is not if Putin is winning or not because the definition of winning is in the eye of the beholder.  My point is that magazine that used to be edited by Boris Johnson now seems to move toward a line on the war that is very different from Boris Johnson.

I do not read the Spectator on principle, but at the end of the day this is *one* contributor amongst many. In itself it thus indicates very little, if anything, about any supposed "changing line".

[Woody]

East bank Bakhmut has collapsed to the Russians. It's almost completely taken over. Every bridge over the Bakhmutka river was blown up by the AFU from their withdrawal.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1631662851260645376
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1631642638985175040

[Stranger in a strange land]

Been away from this thread for a week.

It's interesting how a few weeks ago people were saying Bakhmut would fall any day now. Russia's made gains in that area but Bakhmut is still resisting now. How many more weeks will we have "Bakhmut will fall any day now" before we finally see it happen? Will we still be having this same conversation in March?

Nobody said that.

Anyways, I think it's okay to make predictions at this stage, as most of the roads leading to the city is under fire control or soon under Wagner control. Likely Bakhmut will fall around mid-February. Safe to say the AFU will withdraw next month to other lines.

now maybe mid March?  Remember, they started attacking the city in August.  What is the exact opposite of a blitzkrieg?  langsamerlrieg?  Or maybe Krieg, wie er von einem geistig Behinderten geführt wird ?

Uhm, is this supposed to be an own? You do realize that was based on Ukraine withdrawing (common sense) after their flanks were exposed to save their own guys lives? That I was wrong is actually bad for the Ukrainians stationed there.

The fact they didn't leave the city and they're are still in the city is not good, that's the point. There are guys there right now who are dying for no reason, when they could be retreated to much safer Chasiv Yar.

After Paraskoviivka fell the advantages of holding Bakhmut was gone.

maybe

and maybe the professionals military people in Ukraine (and the military professionals from the West advising them) have a different opinion.  Perhaps there are facts on the ground you (and I) are not aware of.

It isn't guaranteed this is true or that these two groups are in agreement.

Military leadership is (understandably!) subject to political interference and high-ranking generals in any army are arguably powerful politicians in their own right. They may not be making what they recognise to be the most tactically sound move for one reason or another.

Additionally, a lot of Ukrainian generals who were laid off or retired after the post-2014 reforms have likely returned to service as the army has expanded and casualties have been taken. These guys may be more likely to share the approaches of their Russian counterparts (many of whom studied in the same Soviet academies) than their Western allies.

The fog of war is thick and armchair generals are more often wrong than the people invested with the power to make difficult calls, but I would rather listen to the assessments of a select few trustworthy analysts than assume that what the generals are doing is right.

Do we have any confirmation that this is happening, or if so, that they've been given field command positions? These guys were laid off or forced into retirement precisely BECAUSE they shared the Soviet & Russian approach to War, or worse, because there were doubts about their loyalty to Ukraine and fears that they might secretly wish to see the Soviet Union restored. One striking thing that I've noticed in war coverage is how young Ukrainian officials and officers are, despite Ukraine being an old country. 

any month now! (just like for the last 6 months)

Please bring up a quote from before January from anybody that predicted Bakhmut was going to fall anytime soon.

I'll go look for quotes in a minute, but Russia has been "advancing" on Bakhmut for months, and for all the constant reports, you'd think they'd have crossed hundreds of kilometers by now. But no, most of the reported Russian advances consist only of a few meters, a small field, or often even a single building.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/mihirdjin/status/1631673042085502976
https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/1631663805229940740
https://twitter.com/guev20060045/status/1631685256976928769

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1631704475969650692
Man if Kadyrov kicks the bucket, there’s a military intervention in Transnistria, and Lukashenko gets himself overthrown by either trying to enter the war or he arms too much of the populace because he’s paranoid about the war then the Ukrainian-Russo war might see the resolution of 30 years of post-Soviet Union Eastern Europe politics

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

For perspective: the Putin simps are gloating about taking half of a city with a prewar population of about seventy thousand after seven months.