Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Dereich]

Russia has already won.

If its goal was destabilizing the post-WWII order with the US clearly at the very top, yes. But Russia has to do more than that to get a victory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia has already won.

If its goal was destabilizing the post-WWII order with the US clearly at the very top, yes. But Russia has to do more than that to get a victory.

Russia's clearly destabilizing the global order on some level. I was refuting the idea that was enough to bring about a victory for Russia. In the end, this war will be a net loss for quite a few nations. The US and China are probably fairing the best.

[Virginiá]

Is it though? I don't make a claim of being anything more than an armchair General who knows enough to think about logistics over tactics. However, since Russia has just been absolutely meat grinding it's soldiers, equipment, and ammunition to gain inch by inch foot by foot around  Bakhmut, and it seems the only thing stopping the ukrainians from wearing the Russians down at an immensely disproportionate rate of casualties is the lack of Manpower and logistical support there.

Thus it would seem diverting troops and equipment to be a k h m u t would be not only a way of avoiding a somewhat demoralizing loss which would somewhat encourage the Russian Homefront, but would continue grinding away at the Russian war machine at in the most casualty-centric manner possible by letting more troops get ground up throwing themselves into the Ukrainian defenses so long as said defenses don't fall.

Grinding down the Russian army is something Ukraine has been trying to do before launching an offensive to take back territory. It essentially baits Russia into exhausting themselves, like they did in  Severodonetsk, so Ukrainian forces can punch through weakened Russian lines afterwards and engage them on favorable terms. Personally I'm of the opinion that the only way Ukraine is going to win this war in any way that isn't a pyrrhic victory is through maneuver warfare. They can't just fight Russians toe to toe like Bakhmut. They need more breakthroughs and more quick, decisive moves to collapse Russian lines and ideally, isolate Russian units to remove them from the field without having to fight every Russian unit to the death every single time (or letting them retreat and be free to fight another day).

If Ukraine dedicates the troops they were holding in reserve to launch a counter-offensive to just try and wear down the Russian forces, then essentially both sides will be too exhausted to do anything else. That works in Russia's favor. Also I'd be remiss if I didn't say that to us, grinding down the Russians is a pretty ambiguous statement that just means Russia losing tons of men and heavy weapons, but the reality is, it's costing Ukraine a lot of lives to do this. It might not be as bad as Russia's losses, but it's still bad. It's not an ideal way to wage war. The physical and mental toll it takes on those soldiers is immense.

That being said, there isn't any good evidence yet Ukraine is redirecting reserve forces meant for future offensives to Bakhmut or launching ops prematurely because of that battle, so this is just some mild handwringing for now.

[NOVA Green]

Switzerland considering modifying law to allow export and reexport of weapons to conflict zones.

There is a lot more to the article, including how this could potentially unlock another (100) Leopard tanks for Ukraine, but am trying to keep my quoting content limited.

The ban is now affecting Western-provided weapons systems such as aerial defense batteries and tanks—and prompting a rethink in Switzerland’s parliament about a pillar of Swiss identity.

The prohibition is adding another bottleneck to already stressed weapons and, above all, ammunition supply chains, with Ukraine expending far more shells and rockets in a month than its Western partners can produce.

Spain and Denmark complained after Bern refused to allow the export of Aspide air-defense systems and Piranha III infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, both of which have Swiss-made parts.

Berlin has repeatedly lobbied Bern to shift policy after requests for permission to send Ukraine Swiss-made ammunition acquired by Germany decades ago were denied. These include rounds for the Gepard aerial flak system that Ukraine has successfully deployed against Iranian-made suicide drones, in particular. As a result, Ukrainian forces have been compelled to save ammunition, reducing the effectiveness of the vital system.

Swiss lawmakers have drafted a set of amendments to the law regulating arms trade that would unlock re-export permissions but it isn’t clear whether these can muster a majority in parliament. Even if the proposal is adopted soon—the process will take three to six months—the change would only come into force early next year at the earliest, according to several lawmakers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/switzerland-becomes-stumbling-block-for-western-military-aid-to-ukraine-6003880c?mod=hp_lead_pos11

[Red Velvet]

Russia has already won.

If its goal was destabilizing the post-WWII order with the US clearly at the very top, yes. But Russia has to do more than that to get a victory.

They’re referring to the global divide evidenced by this war. It’s something that started way back in the 00s though, maybe even in the 90s to lesser extent, with the emergence of the third world in general evidencing the rise of a new world order being inevitable/a matter of time.

The war just happens to be the first time it gets this display for everyone to see. The third world is way more politically assertive these days as a whole and benefited from significant economic growth in the past decades.

Places like India (mainly, but not just them at all, more like the entirety of global south) allows Russia to have a significant economic lifeline. Russia underwhelmed with the military showing based on expectations that people had but the West underperformed as well with their economic suffocation strategy based on the rhetoric they were using.

Russia annual inflation for example, is only slightly higher than the one in UK right now:

Argentina 98,8%
Turkey 57,68%
Ukraine 26,0%
Poland 17,2%
Russia 11,8%
UK 10,1%
Italy 10,0%
Germany 8,7%
Mexico 7,91%
South Africa 6,9%
India 6,52%
USA 6,4%
France 6,2%
Spain 6,1%
Canada 5,9%
Brazil 5,77%
Japan 4,3%
China 2,1%

The message to the world is that you can still reasonably survive economically after shutting ties with the West, as long as you have partners elsewhere keeping business with you and who do not politicize economic matters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia has already won.

If its goal was destabilizing the post-WWII order with the US clearly at the very top, yes. But Russia has to do more than that to get a victory.

They’re referring to the global divide evidenced by this war. It’s something that started way back in the 00s though, maybe even in the 90s to lesser extent, with the emergence of the third world in general evidencing the rise of a new world order being inevitable/a matter of time.

The war just happens to be the first time it gets this display for everyone to see. The third world is way more politically assertive these days as a whole and benefited from significant economic growth in the past decades.

Places like India (mainly, but not just them at all, more like the entirety of global south) allows Russia to have a significant economic lifeline. Russia underwhelmed with the military showing based on expectations that people had but the West underperformed as well with their economic suffocation strategy based on the rhetoric they were using.

Russia annual inflation for example, is only slightly higher than the one in UK right now:

Argentina 98,8%
Turkey 57,68%
Ukraine 26,0%
Poland 17,2%
Russia 11,8%
UK 10,1%
Italy 10,0%
Germany 8,7%
Mexico 7,91%
South Africa 6,9%
India 6,52%
USA 6,4%
France 6,2%
Spain 6,1%
Canada 5,9%
Brazil 5,77%
Japan 4,3%
China 2,1%

The message to the world is that you can still reasonably survive economically after shutting ties with the West, as long as you have partners elsewhere keeping business with you and who do not politicize economic matters.

You captured the gist of what was on my mind when I posted that, about the broader changes to the world order we're seeing.

I think the existing world order can continue surprisingly intact IF we give Third World nations a place to shape it. If it becomes "US uber alles" then its days are likely numbered.
Just look at the polls for what people in Third World countries think about this war. They don't have the "wave the blue-yellow, Slava Ukraina" energy that the West does. To them it is a sideshow.

Generally I have hawkish inclinations, but I'm quite cautious about putting them in practice because we can't treat the existing state of affairs as a given and if we create ironclad anti-international order strongholds, we increase the chance it will fail over time.

We can't assume, as a superpower, that everyone will have the same inclinations as us. Brazil (the second most important nation in the Hemisphere) even flat-out had a President of net-pro-Russian sympathies until last year. That's business interests talking.

That's also why I have some level of skepticism of sanctions as a tool. It's ineffectual on a broad scale unless it is able to be total enough. If people are able to live with them, you have basically no leverage on them unless you dish out military force...
I'm glad Western businesses didn't really leave Russia wholesale, despite their virtue-signalling claims earlier last year. Western businesses need to dominate the Russian market. What are you doing? Giving Chinese brands free market share? Western brands can evade sanctions for all I care, as long as our companies have the market share I'll happy.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So this guy has an interesting idea on Bakmut
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630776302868340737
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630777045910167552
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630777576741273606

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So this guy has an interesting idea on Bakmut
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630776302868340737
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630777045910167552
https://mobile.twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630777576741273606

Interesting.
I don't think I can discount this. The phrase "fog of war" exists for a reason.
Thanks for sharing.

[Woody]

UA Deepstate has also updated it's map. Wagner is less than a km away from the Khromove-Chasiv Yar road.

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630695952892690432
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630699071240380416
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630701950005125120

[Woody]

How a potential withdrawal becomes more and more complicated by the day:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630710331042418694?cxt=HHwWjMC-1f-ZuaEtAAA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630714384866594816
https://twitter.com/InsaleZ/status/1630783814258532352

[Woody]

[Logical]

Most heavy equipment like tanks and artillery had been withdrawn a week ago. If/when retreat is ordered it will be quick and mostly painless. If you remember, the Ukrainians withdrew with minimal losses from Severodonetsk/Lysychansk under worse circumstances.

[Woody]

Most heavy equipment like tanks and artillery had been withdrawn a week ago. If/when retreat is ordered it will be quick and mostly painless. If you remember, the Ukrainians withdrew with minimal losses from Severodonetsk/Lysychansk under worse circumstances.

I don't know anything about that bolded part. I know for a fact that there is still tank units operating in the city itself, or it's outskirts. But they weren't used much here to begin with, most of the fighting here has been with artillery, mortars, and infantry.

But Lysychansk was much more favorable withouth a doubt. They had a 15 km open stretch to escape from that cauldron when they retreated (and they retreated quickly in a week when the Russians started it's campaign towards the city), and the Russians couldn't attack from the north due to the Siversky Donets river.

Bakhmut only has two major roads left both of which are less than a few hundred meters away from Russian forces, and the distance from the northern and southern forces linking up is 4 kilometers.

[Lord Halifax]

Places like India (mainly, but not just them at all, more like the entirety of global south) allows Russia to have a significant economic lifeline. Russia underwhelmed with the military showing based on expectations that people had but the West underperformed as well with their economic suffocation strategy based on the rhetoric they were using.

but if economic suffocation doesn't work it'll lead to a remilitarization of international politics and it's hard to see that as a win for Russia.

To do list for the collective West if the lesson of Ukraine is that sanctions don't work:

a) keeping military supremacy becomes even more important for the West, military-technological development in non-Western countries needs to be actively sabotaged and experts and top talent from those countries poached.
b) Western countries outside the US will have to boost military spending massively.
c) outsourcing of strategically important Western production needs to be scaled back and reversed.
d) reliance on the Global South needs to be reduced wherever possible.
e) anti-Western regimes need to be more actively undermined and leaders assassinated.

it's hard too see Russia thriving in a multipolar world with a more militant and aggressive West still being the strongest single bloc, they're simply not strong enough to be a pole on their own and will become highly dependent on China and its elite will lose its access to the high life in the West they've so far been very keen on.

unlike China Russia is in no position to capitalize on an asymmetrical multipolar scenario since they don't have the resources to attract clients (and the war has undermined Russia's status as a supplier of weapons and military technology), it's too susceptible to brain drain with its young professionals being culturally Westernized and too weak versus China which will get its resources on the cheap.

I get that Putin and big parts of the Russian elite think multipolarity will be great for them, but it seems like an illusion.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-factory-activity-expands-quickest-rate-six-years-feb-pmi-2023-03-01/

"Russian factory activity expands at quickest rate in six years in Feb -PMI"

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/blueboy1969/status/1630693787361001472?s=20

https://twitter.com/blueboy1969/status/1630693792880762883?s=20

https://twitter.com/blueboy1969/status/1630693798429769732?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1630757251127418882
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1630757256898772994
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1630849093651116032

[Storr]

At of the end of February 2023, Russia occupies 16.67% of Ukrainian territory:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1630737112956825603?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/russia-seen-favoring-india-even-as-china-s-oil-demand-rebounds

"Russia Seen Favoring India Even as China’s Oil Demand Rebounds"

With the post-COVID PRC rebound clearly in place there are signs that PRC and India are now competing with each other to get their hands on Russian oil with the Russian oil discount falling due to this competition.  If the PRC energy demand surge continues this oil discount will most likely continue to fall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/russia-seen-favoring-india-even-as-china-s-oil-demand-rebounds

"Russia Seen Favoring India Even as China’s Oil Demand Rebounds"

With the post-COVID PRC rebound clearly in place there are signs that PRC and India are now competing with each other to get their hands on Russian oil with the Russian oil discount falling due to this competition.  If the PRC energy demand surge continues this oil discount will most likely continue to fall.

India torpedoing once again the collective West's (distant) dreams to fully isolate Russia from the global economy.
I wonder what this augers re: the existing deals India has with Russia's weapons industry.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/russia-seen-favoring-india-even-as-china-s-oil-demand-rebounds

"Russia Seen Favoring India Even as China’s Oil Demand Rebounds"

With the post-COVID PRC rebound clearly in place there are signs that PRC and India are now competing with each other to get their hands on Russian oil with the Russian oil discount falling due to this competition.  If the PRC energy demand surge continues this oil discount will most likely continue to fall.

India torpedoing once again the collective West's (distant) dreams to fully isolate Russia from the global economy.
I wonder what this augers re: the existing deals India has with Russia's weapons industry.

I think India is driven by much more short-term concerns.  Some basic facts about Indian politics are

a) Modi/BJP is very concerned about keeping the Indian budget deficit under control
b) A good part of Indian state revenue/spending is tied to petrol taxes/subsidies
c) Indian electorate is very sensitive to retail fuel prices (as well as onion prices)
d) Modi/BJP wins the election based on the efficient delivery of economic subsidies to those lower down on the economic scale

Given these facts, cheap Russian oil solves all sorts of issues for Modi/BJP.  A few years back, under pressure from the USA, Modi dramatically reduced oil imports from Iran.  He did it as part of a personal favor to Trump.  India then watched as the PRC snap up all those discounted Iran oil.  Modi got a lot of blowback from the BJP as well as the opposition for that move.  

This time around I am sure it is:

a) We are not going to repeat that fiasco of losing out on cheap Iran oil from a few years back
b) My relationship with Biden is not the same as Trump so there are even fewer reasons for me to bend over backward for the USA

I am sure the weapons trade makes a difference even though the USA is trying to replace Russia as an arms supplier to India.  The Hindi press was pretty pro-Russia and even since the war started has been on pro-Russia overdrive so the Modi/BJP base also add pressure on Modi to ignore what the USA/collective wants.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At of the end of February 2023, Russia occupies 16.67% of Ukrainian territory:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1630737112956825603?s=20

I'm surprised the Kherson area liberated last November represented only 0.64% of Ukrainian territory. It looked a lot bigger than that on the map.

[jaichind]

I am reading reports that Russian Far East oil out to April and May is already sold out due to aggressive buying from India and PRC buyers.  I think the recent Russian oil production cut might have been a mistake.  Russia will most likely need to reduce its oil price discount and ramp up production given rise in demand from Indian and PRC.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-foreign-ministry-reacts-trip-185518491.html

"Ukraine's Foreign Ministry reacts to trip of NBC journalists to occupied Crimea"

NBC reporter that went to report from Crimea is now on the Ukraine enemy list


His report
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/inside-crimea-russian-military-annexed-ukraine-retake-putin-rcna72606

Seems pretty standard collective West MSM take on the situation.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630929558512754688?cxt=HHwWgICzzdvynKItAA...