Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1632061102866460672?s=20

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1632087055504228354?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/BlackMapleCo/status/1632275491993296896

[UWS]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

[Hindsight was 2020]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

Ukraine has already started abandoning Bakmut plus the Abrams are not going to be involved in the spring offensive

[oldtimer]

The Russian government wants to make a model city out of Mariupol (Grozny 2.0) to show it's successes. It's been funneling money and mostly workers from Central Asia and other regions of Russia for government contracts.

Current population might be anywhere from low 100,000s (UA estimation from May 2022) to 200,000s.

- Fully rebuilt by 2025
- Plans to have around half a million inhabitants by the next decade (Soviet peak)
- Azovstal will be turned into an industrial park
- Restore the Mariupol International Airport (closed in 2014)

What's the point of rebuilding a city if they don't have an army to defend it ?

By 2025 it could easily be Ukrainian again because they wasted so many resources on rebuilding Mariupol instead of making guns to win the war.

[oldtimer]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

You can't have any offensives in Ukraine if the temperature is between 35-75F, the ground will be too muddy and any mechanized force will be stuck on narrow roads.

Anyway tanks have been mostly useless in war since the Toyota War, and fighter jets since Iraq.

No modern army has won a proper war since 1991, and before that WW2, all victorious armies have been highly trained and equiped motorised militias.

It's what lead to massive Ukrainian victories over the Russian army in 2022.

They need lots and lots of pickup trucks and hand-held missiles, not tanks and jets that are easy targets.

Look at how easy precision Rocket Artilley (HIMARS) has replaced the Airforce, and Javelins the tanks.

[UWS]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

You can't have any offensives in Ukraine if the temperature is between 35-75F, the ground will be too muddy and any mechanized force will be stuck on narrow roads.

Anyway tanks have been mostly useless in war since the Toyota War, and fighter jets since Iraq.

No modern army has won a proper war since 1991, and before that WW2, all victorious armies have been highly trained and equiped motorised militias.

It's what lead to massive Ukrainian victories over the Russian army in 2022.

They need lots and lots of pickup trucks and hand-held missiles, not tanks and jets that are easy targets.

Look at how easy precision Rocket Artilley (HIMARS) has replaced the Airforce, and Javelins the tanks.

HIMARS are precisely among the weapons recently announced to be delivered to Ukraine

[CumbrianLefty]

What's the point of rebuilding a city if they don't have an army to defend it ?

By 2025 it could easily be Ukrainian again because they wasted so many resources on rebuilding Mariupol instead of making guns to win the war.

As already explained, little has been rebuilt outside of the city centre.

Nor is that likely to change any time soon.

[Torie]

There is still hopes for Ukrainians to hold Bakmut. If Bakmut can hold for a month, for the time for Western tanks to arrive in Ukraine in either late March or early April, that will give Ukrainians the advantage thanks to a counteroffensive to free the entire Bakmut region thanks to those tanks, including Leopard 2 and Abrams, and then to launch a Ukrainian offensive to free the all the occupied territory by undermining Russians' trench warfare ability

You can't have any offensives in Ukraine if the temperature is between 35-75F, the ground will be too muddy and any mechanized force will be stuck on narrow roads.

Anyway tanks have been mostly useless in war since the Toyota War, and fighter jets since Iraq.

No modern army has won a proper war since 1991, and before that WW2, all victorious armies have been highly trained and equiped motorised militias.

It's what lead to massive Ukrainian victories over the Russian army in 2022.

They need lots and lots of pickup trucks and hand-held missiles, not tanks and jets that are easy targets.

Look at how easy precision Rocket Artilley (HIMARS) has replaced the Airforce, and Javelins the tanks.

That particular war entirely escaped my notice.

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-wagner-troops-exhaust-ukrainian-forces-in-bakhmut-b58e726c

"Russia’s Wagner Troops Exhaust Ukrainian Forces in Bakhmut"

WSJ says Wagner did enough damage to Ukraine's forces to threaten their ability to launch their much anticipated Spring offensive.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DevonHeinen/status/1632172530990456834
It’s starting 👀

[Epaminondas]

Lol speak of a modern Potemkine village.

[UWS]

Here are what I think the West should provide to Ukraine : A-10 Warthogs that have a reputation as being effective tank slaughtering warplanes. In fact during the Gulf War, these warplanes bombarded 1000 Iraqi Guard tanks, 2000 military vehicles and 1200 artillery pieces

[Woody]

The Russian government wants to make a model city out of Mariupol (Grozny 2.0) to show it's successes. It's been funneling money and mostly workers from Central Asia and other regions of Russia for government contracts.

Current population might be anywhere from low 100,000s (UA estimation from May 2022) to 200,000s.

- Fully rebuilt by 2025
- Plans to have around half a million inhabitants by the next decade (Soviet peak)
- Azovstal will be turned into an industrial park
- Restore the Mariupol International Airport (closed in 2014)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RXk9aOlNEQ

What's the point of rebuilding a city if they don't have an army to defend it ?

By 2025 it could easily be Ukrainian again because they wasted so many resources on rebuilding Mariupol instead of making guns to win the war.

They have an army, and Mariupol is far away from the frontlines, even out of HIMARS range. And I am pretty sure they can do both at the same time. There is a pretty big difference between arms manufacturing and building infrastructure and housing.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1632230153064685568

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1632230153064685568

I suppose the deal would be to withdraw from the territories occupied post-February 24th in exchange for international recognition of Russian claims to Crimea and the Donbas.

[Torie]

That I think absent more Russian military reverses, was always going to be the deal provided Russia accepted more formal defense arrangements between NATO and Ukraine.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1632230153064685568

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1632119515575140352

[NOVA Green]

Phillips O'Brien his weekend update #18 as he moves away from Twitter.

Note that he also has a paid site which provides greater details of which I am not currently a subscriber, but the link at the bottom is completely 100% not behind a paywall.

This article is specifically focused on the Battle of Bakhmut which has recently attracted so much attention in the MSM, not to mention a few posters on Atlas who appear to be obsessively and compulsively regurgitating Russian military talking points.

A few select quotes:

He starts with a profile of Nathan Greene during the war of independence against English colonial rule, then goes deep into the weeds when describing the Battle of Bunker Hill and why that is relevant within the context of military history to explain his perspective regarding Bakhmut.

He reaches deep back into his social media posts to describe the changing of the maps around 7/22.

He then does a deeper dive into the concept of the Ukrainian full withdrawal versus continued fighting in the city.

Phillips then goes into a "what doesn't matter" versus a "what does matter" sort of compare and contrast of which here are a few selective quotes:

What doesn't Matter:

1.) which side occupies the physical ground on which the city of Bakhmut used to reside. I say used to for the tragic reason that Bakhmut has basically ceased to be. After more than half a year’s pounding by Russian artillery, the city itself is a ruin, with barely a building standing that seems in habitable condition.

2.) The political impact of the withdrawal. This is always a really good way to detect reporting and analysis that is full of BS. Though some might try to make that claim that Bakhmut was a politically important city in the Ukrainian mind, the fall of which will be a blow—thats nonsense

What Does Matter:

1.) One thing and one thing only will really determine the impact of the battle—and that is the relative losses the two sides have incurred during the Bakhmut campaign. There has been a huge amount of narrative reporting of the battle, with some really powerful descriptions of the fighting, the dying and the destruction of equipment. However this is just narrative—what matters is the material that has been lost in relative terms

2.) What it says about the Russians as warfighters. The Battle of Bakhmut confirms that the Russian Army is still struggling with basic operations. Returning to the map of the present situation above, the stunning thing is that the Ukrainians are still in the city and seem to be debating what to do. An advanced military should be able to shut down all supply reaching the city from the one open road, indeed you would think the Russian army, which has Bakhmut invested on three sides, would be able to surround the city at this point.

3.) What it says about Russian grand strategy.

These attacks, and the inability of the Russians to take Bakhmut after six months, are a sign that Russian strategic aims are bleeding the Russian army greatly.

So that is the state of play for the Battle of Bakhmut, at least from my perspective this morning. It might indeed be a good thing for the Ukrainians to pull out now, if they are in such a bad situation that the loss rate is not as high in their favor as one would like, then continuing to fight for the city would be dangerous. On the other hand, the reporting this morning is more positive about the Ukrainians trying to hold the city. The Institute for the Study of War still believes that encircling Bakhmut will be very difficult for the Russians.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-18-the-end-of-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1176440&post_id=106380803&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

[Hindsight was 2020]

Phillips O'Brien his weekend update #18 as he moves away from Twitter.

Note that he also has a paid site which provides greater details of which I am not currently a subscriber, but the link at the bottom is completely 100% not behind a paywall.

This article is specifically focused on the Battle of Bakhmut which has recently attracted so much attention in the MSM, not to mention a few posters on Atlas who appear to be obsessively and compulsively regurgitating Russian military talking points.

A few select quotes:

He starts with a profile of Nathan Greene during the war of independence against English colonial rule, then goes deep into the weeds when describing the Battle of Bunker Hill and why that is relevant within the context of military history to explain his perspective regarding Bakhmut.

He reaches deep back into his social media posts to describe the changing of the maps around 7/22.

He then does a deeper dive into the concept of the Ukrainian full withdrawal versus continued fighting in the city.

Phillips then goes into a "what doesn't matter" versus a "what does matter" sort of compare and contrast of which here are a few selective quotes:

What doesn't Matter:

1.) which side occupies the physical ground on which the city of Bakhmut used to reside. I say used to for the tragic reason that Bakhmut has basically ceased to be. After more than half a year’s pounding by Russian artillery, the city itself is a ruin, with barely a building standing that seems in habitable condition.

2.) The political impact of the withdrawal. This is always a really good way to detect reporting and analysis that is full of BS. Though some might try to make that claim that Bakhmut was a politically important city in the Ukrainian mind, the fall of which will be a blow—thats nonsense

What Does Matter:

1.) One thing and one thing only will really determine the impact of the battle—and that is the relative losses the two sides have incurred during the Bakhmut campaign. There has been a huge amount of narrative reporting of the battle, with some really powerful descriptions of the fighting, the dying and the destruction of equipment. However this is just narrative—what matters is the material that has been lost in relative terms

2.) What it says about the Russians as warfighters. The Battle of Bakhmut confirms that the Russian Army is still struggling with basic operations. Returning to the map of the present situation above, the stunning thing is that the Ukrainians are still in the city and seem to be debating what to do. An advanced military should be able to shut down all supply reaching the city from the one open road, indeed you would think the Russian army, which has Bakhmut invested on three sides, would be able to surround the city at this point.

3.) What it says about Russian grand strategy.

These attacks, and the inability of the Russians to take Bakhmut after six months, are a sign that Russian strategic aims are bleeding the Russian army greatly.

So that is the state of play for the Battle of Bakhmut, at least from my perspective this morning. It might indeed be a good thing for the Ukrainians to pull out now, if they are in such a bad situation that the loss rate is not as high in their favor as one would like, then continuing to fight for the city would be dangerous. On the other hand, the reporting this morning is more positive about the Ukrainians trying to hold the city. The Institute for the Study of War still believes that encircling Bakhmut will be very difficult for the Russians.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-18-the-end-of-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1176440&post_id=106380803&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

Great stuff 👍

[Virginiá]

Much has been said about Russia's problems, but honestly, while Ukraine has some advantages right now, they are experiencing chronic ammunition and vehicle shortages, and soldiers with little training are also being sent into hot zones like Bakhmut. They might not be used as "meat" like in the RuAF, but some still lack even a basic level of (adequate) training and thus experience all the problems that causes (eg poor communication, poor tactics, etc).

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1632472707613745152

Honestly, the whole article is quote-worthy, with lots of interviews, so I would say just read it in its entirety. Interviews with a lot of Ukrainian soldiers helps put things into perspective. We often only see one side, and as someone who is highly active in this thread, it's usually a rosy side that shows success more than failure (like most pro-Ukrainian spaces).

I think this tweet also encapsulates the problem:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1632417388774793218

Ukraine has lost valuable defensive positions and is increasingly in an indefensible position, being surrounded on 3 sides and having their lines of communication under fire. Russia is throwing most of their combat potential at Bakhmut right now, and on the Ukrainian side, months of shelling has leveled most buildings and every time they lose territory or even just more times goes by, they have less cover and less protection and take to increasingly less capable defensive positions.

That being said, this is the most active part of the front right now by far, so I'm not surprised to see ammunition and vehicle shortages, particularly when the only supply lines left are under constant threat. I doubt the entire front is like this, and Ukraine is definitely holding back better trained forces, heavy weapons and ammunition to preserve their ability to wage offensives in the near future, but it's still worth knowing that Bakhmut is not just a giant graveyard for Russians only.

[Storr]

Mariupol:

How did they rebuild so quickly?

They didn't. Go search for the latest satellite images on Mariupol. Beyond the city center most buildings remain damaged or destroyed. It's not Marinka or Grozny level devastated true, but still uninhabitable. The industrial zones are completely leveled. I doubt Russia or Ukraine would even consider rebuilding them.

example:
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1632504832769523713?s=20

[Storr]

Much has been said about Russia's problems, but honestly, while Ukraine has some advantages right now, they are experiencing chronic ammunition and vehicle shortages, and soldiers with little training are also being sent into hot zones like Bakhmut. They might not be used as "meat" like in the RuAF, but some still lack even a basic level of (adequate) training and thus experience all the problems that causes (eg poor communication, poor tactics, etc).

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1632472707613745152

Honestly, the whole article is quote-worthy, with lots of interviews, so I would say just read it in its entirety. Interviews with a lot of Ukrainian soldiers helps put things into perspective. We often only see one side, and as someone who is highly active in this thread, it's usually a rosy side that shows success more than failure (like most pro-Ukrainian spaces).

I think this tweet also encapsulates the problem:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1632417388774793218

Ukraine has lost valuable defensive positions and is increasingly in an indefensible position, being surrounded on 3 sides and having their lines of communication under fire. Russia is throwing most of their combat potential at Bakhmut right now, and on the Ukrainian side, months of shelling has leveled most buildings and every time they lose territory or even just more times goes by, they have less cover and less protection and take to increasingly less capable defensive positions.

That being said, this is the most active part of the front right now by far, so I'm not surprised to see ammunition and vehicle shortages, particularly when the only supply lines left are under constant threat. I doubt the entire front is like this, and Ukraine is definitely holding back better trained forces, heavy weapons and ammunition to preserve their ability to wage offensives in the near future, but it's still worth knowing that Bakhmut is not just a giant graveyard for Russians only.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1632503457272692736?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Snip

Yeah it’s definitely time for Ukraine to pull out especially as NOVA article shows Russia is having trouble encircling the city so a path to safe get the army out is there

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1632322709399937026?s=20