Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

The gap is closing. The guys stationed in Bakhmut itself are going to have to go through a incredibly dangerous withdrawal soon.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1630518234834247682
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1630490685596921856?cxt=HHwWgMCzyfmo1aAtA...

[Cassius]

So, assuming Bakhmut does get surrounded, is there not the likelihood that it ends up as another Mariupol (ie defenders fight on for a month or two)?

[Woody]

So, assuming Bakhmut does get surrounded, is there not the likelihood that it ends up as another Mariupol (ie defenders fight on for a month or two)?

Mariupol had Azovstal. Bakhmut as far as I know has some mines, but not as complex, big and fitted for hiding out as they did in Mariupol. Soledar's mines was much more complex, yet the AFU didn't think it was worth fighting from there.

And even if that was an option, I am 95% sure the AFU would avoid that scenario again. While aesthetics and morale from Azovstal was good, the loss was very catastrophic.

3K soldiers surrendering after Azovstal, most of them from the pre-2022 Donbas war era. Naval infantry and so forth being wiped out due to exposed positions and attacked on all sides, no supplies to send in, etc. In general you always want to avoid cauldrons and encirclement, and have your guys go back to new fortified positions, to minimize unnecessary losses.

Which is why I don't know what's going on here, I only have two guesses:

1. They might be preparing for a counter-offensive here very soon. Presumably to the north.

2. The high command wanted to avoid withdrawal before Feb. 24 for PR. Due to incredibly bad timing, Wagner was making advances around the same time on exposed flanks to the north, and only now can the AFU start thinking about leaving the city.

[Torie]

Scrounging for Tanks for Ukraine, Europe’s Armies Come Up Short

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tanks.html

It’s a game of musical tanks, with the reasons they don’t get to Ukraine seemingly endless. They don’t work, don’t have spare parts, nobody knows how to run them, militaries realize they are paper tigers under the hood, and get nervous, and impose more conditions to part with them, and on and on, so when the music stops, there is next to nothing left for Ukraine.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/shanggyangg/status/1629567068621135872

Translated roughly as: In Kamyshin, yesterday opened a memorial to the locals who died in the war. There are 41 people on the monument, the population of Kamyshin is about 100,000 people.

Extrapolating out the losses of Kamyshinsky district proportionally to the rest of Russia, that infers about 40,000 killed. Likely somewhat higher, since while areas like Moscow probably have less killed per population, places like the Donbass Republics, Buryatia, and Tuva likely have much higher casualties per population.

This is in line with the UK Ministry of Defense estimate from February 17 that 40,000 to 60,000 Russian soldiers have been killed.

CSIS believes that the number is 60-70k which I think is closer to the truth since they count LDPR casualties as Russian too.
https://twitter.com/CSIS/status/1630598713025462274

[CumbrianLefty]

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Well yes - but it will fall at great cost to the Russians, far far later than they ever expected it would.

It was said poster's evident glee at the prospect that was the giveaway, as you must surely know.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Well yes - but it will fall at great cost to the Russians, far far later than they ever expected it would.

It was said poster's evident glee at the prospect that was the giveaway, as you must surely know.

Can’t wait for the pro-Russia lunatic brigade to act as though capturing a city the size of Utica NY after 7 months of assaults is the greatest military feat of modern history. It’s a morale hit for the Ukrainians to be sure, but at the end of the day the front has barely moved and Russia will have taken more losses than Ukraine (assuming no encirclement!).

[Woody]

The situation is difficult in Bakhmut, reinforcements have been sent there. The decision to hold the city is a strategic one, not a political one,..." - Hanna Malyar.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630642103330979847?cxt=HHwWjoC2zc-WmqEtA...https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630608980664778753?cxt=HHwWgoCwwdCOi6EtA...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1630639482775977984

[Virginiá]

Scrounging for Tanks for Ukraine, Europe’s Armies Come Up Short

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tanks.html

It’s a game of musical tanks, with the reasons they don’t get to Ukraine seemingly endless. They don’t work, don’t have spare parts, nobody knows how to run them, militaries realize they are paper tigers under the hood, and get nervous, and impose more conditions to part with them, and on and on, so when the music stops, there is next to nothing left for Ukraine.

Highlights:

“The trend across the board in European armies has been cutting, cutting, cutting,”  said Christian Mölling, a defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “But at the end of the day, many were on the same track as Germany: War is a theoretical thing. So we have theoretical tanks.”

For decades, European countries enjoying a post-Cold War “peace dividend” had seen war as almost a thing of the past, regularly cutting military support. Now, the shrunken armies tend to be protective of what they still have. At NATO, European militaries are sometimes called “bonsai armies,” after the miniature trees.

State leaders want industry to move first, while weapons makers want longer-term government orders before they step up production. If more government orders are made, analysts say, the more capacity may increase, thus speeding up production of weapons like tanks.

At current rates, militaries would face a serious tank shortage for the two to three years it would take the industry to make the new vehicles, security experts say — a long waiting period politicians across Europe are learning their armies are fiercely resistant to accept.

That is why Mr. Gressel argued the tanks should be sent now anyway.

“Yes,” he said, “Russia will reconstitute itself as a military threat to NATO after this war. But it will take years for them to come back as a military threat. They have to rebuild an army which is shattered and almost destroyed in Ukraine.”

Honestly, Trump was not wrong to call out Europe on NATO spending, even if the way he did it was boneheaded. Europe created a situation for themselves where their armies were going to be a lot less useful than they seemed on paper if a war actually came to their doorstep. They just thought this wasn't going to ever become a major issue.

The production issue is another favorite thing for me to ramble about, but I'll spare everyone more paragraphs on that, other than to say that at the end of the day, if governments just stopped complaining and placed orders already, we could begin solving the issue. But they won't.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1630639482775977984

If true, it makes me wonder if a Ukrainian South in Zaporizhia Oblast is coming soon. Maybe the AFU is thinking an offensive there would force the Russians to redeploy forces in Donetsk Oblast (the two Oblasts neighbor each other) and ease pressure on Bakhmut?

[Storr]

More drone strikes in Russia:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1630654779029442560?s=20

A surrounded Ukrainian soldier gets help from friendly artillery:

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1630640529552621584?s=20

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1630639482775977984

I hope they are not prematurely launching their planned offensives or diverting those forces to Bakhmut. This is exactly what Russia wants them to do.

And at any rate, Ukraine just feeding more soldiers and assets into Bakhmut isn't working. They aren't going to save that city without pushing back Russian forces in either their north or south flanks.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scrounging for Tanks for Ukraine, Europe’s Armies Come Up Short

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-tanks.html

It’s a game of musical tanks, with the reasons they don’t get to Ukraine seemingly endless. They don’t work, don’t have spare parts, nobody knows how to run them, militaries realize they are paper tigers under the hood, and get nervous, and impose more conditions to part with them, and on and on, so when the music stops, there is next to nothing left for Ukraine.

Highlights:

“The trend across the board in European armies has been cutting, cutting, cutting,”  said Christian Mölling, a defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “But at the end of the day, many were on the same track as Germany: War is a theoretical thing. So we have theoretical tanks.”

For decades, European countries enjoying a post-Cold War “peace dividend” had seen war as almost a thing of the past, regularly cutting military support. Now, the shrunken armies tend to be protective of what they still have. At NATO, European militaries are sometimes called “bonsai armies,” after the miniature trees.

State leaders want industry to move first, while weapons makers want longer-term government orders before they step up production. If more government orders are made, analysts say, the more capacity may increase, thus speeding up production of weapons like tanks.

At current rates, militaries would face a serious tank shortage for the two to three years it would take the industry to make the new vehicles, security experts say — a long waiting period politicians across Europe are learning their armies are fiercely resistant to accept.

That is why Mr. Gressel argued the tanks should be sent now anyway.

“Yes,” he said, “Russia will reconstitute itself as a military threat to NATO after this war. But it will take years for them to come back as a military threat. They have to rebuild an army which is shattered and almost destroyed in Ukraine.”

Honestly, Trump was not wrong to call out Europe on NATO spending, even if the way he did it was boneheaded. Europe created a situation for themselves where their armies were going to be a lot less useful than they seemed on paper if a war actually came to their doorstep. They just thought this wasn't going to ever become a major issue.

The production issue is another favorite thing for me to ramble about, but I'll spare everyone more paragraphs on that, other than to say that at the end of the day, if governments just stopped complaining and placed orders already, we could begin solving the issue. But they won't.

Military spending isn't that popular in Germany for well-known historical reasons.

An exacerbating factor is perhaps that the composition of Germany's military isn't really seen as representative for the country's populace as a whole - not even back when we still had the draft, I guess. Exemplary for that are the semi-regular neo-Nazi scandals among the troops and the seemingly high number of ex-generals and ex-colonels who become AfD politicians (or Reichsbürger for that matter). As such the military appears to form a sub-culture of its own.  While this doesn't reach the problematic extent that it had during the Weimar Republic, you still have to keep in mind that the AfD pretty much holds a pariah status in German society and among the voters of other parties, ranging from the CDU to the Left.

The fact that the Greens - who had been more "culturally alienated" from military matters than most political parties around here - have arguably become the most hawkish party on the Ukraine issue could maybe help in mending that rift. Nobody in the party batted an eye when they agreed last summer to buy F-35 fighters in order to continue Germany's participation in NATO's nuclear weapons sharing program, despite the fact that removing all U.S. nukes from the country used to be platform plank up until five years ago.

But still, even nowadays the Greens seem to be more likely to support the Ukrainian military than the actual German military. A German version of the French Foreign Legion would probably be right down the Greens' alley, ensuring that you don't have a military force that doesn't have German skinheads among its ranks.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630685332952821763?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1630629859213934596?s=20

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1630629859213934596?s=20

“The Khromove [settlement] is the key for the defense of the city. When it is captured, only one Bakhmut - Kostiantynivka road will remain to supply the city,” the soldier explained. “It is already under the enemy's fire control, and if the enemy captures it, supplies will be impossible.”

     It may not be cut off yet, but it sounds like that fate isn't too far off. They describe trying to buy time for a spring counteroffensive, but realistically how far off is that? I recall reading in here that the ground is very muddy in early spring, so such a move might have to wait until late spring.

[Badger]

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Well yes - but it will fall at great cost to the Russians, far far later than they ever expected it would.

It was said poster's evident glee at the prospect that was the giveaway, as you must surely know.

Can’t wait for the pro-Russia lunatic brigade to act as though capturing a city the size of Utica NY after 7 months of assaults is the greatest military feat of modern history. It’s a morale hit for the Ukrainians to be sure, but at the end of the day the front has barely moved and Russia will have taken more losses than Ukraine (assuming no encirclement!).

Plus, even IF they managed to take it, let's see how long they hold it.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1630639482775977984

I hope they are not prematurely launching their planned offensives or diverting those forces to Bakhmut. This is exactly what Russia wants them to do.

And at any rate, Ukraine just feeding more soldiers and assets into Bakhmut isn't working. They aren't going to save that city without pushing back Russian forces in either their north or south flanks.

Is it though? I don't make a claim of being anything more than an armchair General who knows enough to think about logistics over tactics. However, since Russia has just been absolutely meat grinding it's soldiers, equipment, and ammunition to gain inch by inch foot by foot around  Bakhmut, and it seems the only thing stopping the ukrainians from wearing the Russians down at an immensely disproportionate rate of casualties is the lack of Manpower and logistical support there.

Thus it would seem diverting troops and equipment to be a k h m u t would be not only a way of avoiding a somewhat demoralizing loss which would somewhat encourage the Russian Homefront, but would continue grinding away at the Russian war machine at in the most casualty-centric manner possible by letting more troops get ground up throwing themselves into the Ukrainian defenses so long as said defenses don't fall.

[SnowLabrador]

Russia has already won.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia has already won.

🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia has already won.

If its goal was destabilizing the post-WWII order with the US clearly at the very top, yes. But Russia has to do more than that to get a victory.

[Storr]

In an interesting development, Serbian rockets have ended up on the battlefield...in the hands of Ukrainian forces!

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630679031078084611?s=20

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630679037243801600?s=20

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia has already won.

🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=519131.0

[2952-0-0]

In an interesting development, Serbian rockets have ended up on the battlefield...in the hands of Ukrainian forces!

https://twitter.com/gahamalian/status/1630666072193138688

"We sold rockets to Ukraine on the condition they won't be used on the frontline". They need to come up with a more plausible excuse than that.

The rockets were sold by Serbia to a Canadian company, which then shipped them to Istanbul, and then Bratislava, before being sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1630267185665826816

I looked up the address stated for "JNJ Import Export Ltd". It's a non-descript cookie-cutter house in upper-middle-class suburban Toronto. I also searched for the name in the Canada corporations registry, and found no matches. However, I did find that the address was the home of two long-dissolved companies. Both of them are headed by a man named Alexander Zivanovic. Someone with that name is also a director in several other companies in a variety of sectors. It seems bizarre, but almost fitting, that someone like that is a shifty weapons dealer.