Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Russian conscripts not happy...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587714068156129281?s=20&t=3VzcN1vV...

[NOVA Green]

War Reporting from Russian "Embed" Pro-Kremlin Prop channels...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1587890581308669953?s=20&t=8e3Z9mAR...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like damage to Russian Frigate might have been worse than previously estimated?

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1587718650286456832?s=20&t=8e3Z9mARjav1M...

[NOVA Green]

Duma bill of "Five Year Penalty for Evading Mobilization" gets withdrawn by the "United Russia" Party.

The deputies are going to submit to the State Duma a bill that provides for criminal liability for evading the call for mobilization. This was reported to Interfax by one of the authors of the amendments, United Russia deputy Ernest Valeev.

The bill provides for fines from 200 to 500 thousand rubles, forced labor or imprisonment for up to 5 years for evading mobilization, said Valeev. According to him, criminal liability may apply to citizens who evade after they have officially received a summons to the military registration and enlistment office.

Later, the press service of United Russia assured that the initiative had "lost its relevance" and was considered at the beginning of the mobilization. “To date, partial mobilization has been completed. This initiative has lost its relevance. It is not being considered by the State Duma, ”the chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, and the chairman of the Security Committee, Vasily Piskarev, said in a statement.

https://zona.media/news/2022/11/01/proekt

[Logical]

A timely reminder to Western leaders that Putin is not some genius nor a madman, but a gambler who has dug himself into a hole he cannot get jump out of.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1588063879522836480

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bulgaria had earlier stated it was seeking to buy spares from Slovakia. Slovakia stated it might donate its (all newly retired) MiG-29s to Ukraine, but that it would seek compensation from allies for this and that it might keep any transactions confidential.

Bulgaria is now getting at least one engine + maintenance support[/a] from Poland for their MiG-29s: https://sofiaglobe.com/2022/10/28/defence-ministry-poland-agreed-to-overhaul-six-bulgarian-air-force-mig-29-engines/

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-opposition-to-helping-ukraine-grows-wsj-poll-finds-11667467802

"Republican Opposition to Helping Ukraine Grows, WSJ Poll Finds"

WSJ poll has 48% of GOP voters "believe the administration is doing too much to help Ukraine,"

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1588100412191784960?s=20&t=hUdACd...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1588148499870322690

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1588148499870322690

Definitely odd. The Russians have been eager to display their flag everywhere in occupied areas.

There's also reports of Russian soldiers destroying civilian boats in Kherson:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1587898153134690308?s=20&t=hUdACd...

And:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1588101395441483779?s=20&t=hUdACd-y...

[Torie]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-opposition-to-helping-ukraine-grows-wsj-poll-finds-11667467802

"Republican Opposition to Helping Ukraine Grows, WSJ Poll Finds"

WSJ poll has 48% of GOP voters "believe the administration is doing too much to help Ukraine,"

Doctor Shrink, I am here today because I have this paranoid delusion wherein I perceive that whatever I think should be done in the public square, it seems as if the Pubs read my mind, and do the precise opposite. What Meds do you think might help me?  Mr. Torie, it is not you who should be here, it is the Pub party who should be here. Sorry. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Half of GOP voters are dumb or worse, hold the front middle and back pages

[Storr]

I mean, what would be another reason? They forgot to raise the flag? It's a propaganda stunt intended to make the Ukrainians think they're leaving, when they actually aren't?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1588163963602223105?s=20&t=3IIizPjS...

[Woody]

I mean, what would be another reason? They forgot to raise the flag? It's a propaganda stunt intended to make the Ukrainians think they're leaving, when they actually aren't?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1588163963602223105?s=20&t=3IIizPjSpIKm2gju_jBbRw

"These are certain provocations in order to create the impression that the settlements have been abandoned, that they are safe. But given that they were preparing for street battles, we are aware of the planned tactics of action. We should not rush to rejoice, we must understand that a hybrid war also implies such information stuffing, attacks. (c) Press Center of Operational Command "South" of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/yorukhunnn/status/1588168033310494720

[Torie]

Do the Russians think Ukraine will do a Dunkirk in reverse and "invade" the east bank of the the Dnipro river in what appear to be little more than rowboats, or is it just exhibit number 12,265 in wanton unnecessary malicious mischief and thuggery, almost as if the jails were emptied and the inmates put into uniforms and let loose on the landscape?

Oh wait a minute. Never mind.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1588084730842464258

[Virginiá]

Interesting, although they were already quietly selling ammunition and small arms to Ukraine via intermediaries.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1588196135650447360

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/eu-studying-ways-to-use-billions-in-russian-central-bank-assets

"EU Studies Use of Russian Central Bank Assets to Rebuild Ukraine"

If they go through with this it could lead to a bifurcation of the international financial world where the Global South will slowly shift their assets away from the collective West.  I suspect people in the collective West financial system will push back against this.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1588182216731156480?s=20&t=hzJknFez8reE0J...

[Person Man]

I mean, what would be another reason? They forgot to raise the flag? It's a propaganda stunt intended to make the Ukrainians think they're leaving, when they actually aren't?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1588163963602223105?s=20&t=3IIizPjS...

That just make them look like whiny little bitches. Why can’t they lose like a man?

[Virginiá]

Also lol @ "we are polite people" (at the end)

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1588203897629319169

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1588182216731156480?s=20&t=hzJknFez8reE0J...

On the other hand, if he feels it's advantageous to withdraw or that eventual defeat is likely, biting the bullet early will allow him to avoid some of the blame.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/eu-studying-ways-to-use-billions-in-russian-central-bank-assets

"EU Studies Use of Russian Central Bank Assets to Rebuild Ukraine"

If they go through with this it could lead to a bifurcation of the international financial world where the Global South will slowly shift their assets away from the collective West.  I suspect people in the collective West financial system will push back against this.

Wake me up when the elite of these countries stop putting their wealth in offshore accounts in the BVI, townhouses in London, and condos in Miami. And what currency will the central banks store their reserves in? The Chinese Yuan is not convertible and is plummeting in value. Ditto for the Indian Rupee. Until then, this is all just BS.

In any case, any peace agreement is likely to include Russia being obliged to make a big contribution towards the Ukraine reconstruction fund in exchange for unfreezing the rest of its reserves in order to give Putin something tangible to offer, making this proposal moot.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1588249781406552064?s=20&t=hzJknF...

[Virginiá]

Crowdfunding campaign that apparently started (kind of) as a joke succeeded in fully funding the purchase of ~60 Spartan FV103 APCs, owned by private entities across the UK. They should be arriving by Christmas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1588234887944933383

Not a very large APC, but then again it is designed more for recon and safe transport of specialist teams.