Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Interesting NYT data on Russia's trade since the war started.  The fact it is up for Japan highlights the energy dependency Japan has on Russian energy imports.  The rest is about BRICS growing trade intensity.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-is-ready-supply-up-500000-t-grain-poorest-countries-tass-2022-10-29/

"Russia is ready to supply up to 500,000 tonnes of grain to poorest countries, TASS reports"

I guess this is in conjunction with the Ukraine grain corridor deal being shutdown

It was not shut down. In response to Ukraine and Turkey simply continuing to implement the deal without them, Russia clarified yesterday that their participation in the deal was “merely suspended, not cancelled,” because they couldn’t or wouldn’t stop it.

I stand corrected.  Poor word choice by me.  If I understand what changed is that Russia will now reserve the right to inspect ships going through the corridor to ensure what is transported is grain versus military hardware.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-is-ready-supply-up-500000-t-grain-poorest-countries-tass-2022-10-29/

"Russia is ready to supply up to 500,000 tonnes of grain to poorest countries, TASS reports"

I guess this is in conjunction with the Ukraine grain corridor deal being shutdown

It was not shut down. In response to Ukraine and Turkey simply continuing to implement the deal without them, Russia clarified yesterday that their participation in the deal was “merely suspended, not cancelled,” because they couldn’t or wouldn’t stop it.

I stand corrected.  Poor word choice by me.  If I understand what changed is that Russia will now reserve the right to inspect ships going through the corridor to ensure what is transported is grain versus military hardware.

It's not a poor word choice, jaichind. The implication of "shut down" was that Russia was resuming its naval blockade of the port of Odesa in order to actively impede Ukrainian food exports. Any shipping company would interpret that as a threat, as would their insurance company. But, for some reason, the ships have continued to leave unmolested. All this proves is that Putin's threats are all hot air.

https://twitter.com/MarineTraffic/status/1587433091869835266

Now, in a bid to save face, Putin claims he will return to the grain deal if Ukraine "guarantees the safety of the Black Sea Fleet". But, since when is it the enemy's job to guarantee the safety of your own military assets??

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587412820181893123

The fact remains, that the grain export deal was made possible by Ukraine retaking Snake Island by force, after which Russia could no longer enforce a naval blockade of the port of Odesa, and Putin wanted a piece of paper to hide his face. This means that Putin responds to military defeats by looking for a face-saving offramp, not by escalation.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1587502962276016128

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now, in a bid to save face, Putin claims he will return to the grain deal if Ukraine "guarantees the safety of the Black Sea Fleet". But, since when is it the enemy's job to guarantee the safety of your own military assets??

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587412820181893123

In war, your pretty ships sometimes get sunk, Putin.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Moskva

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1587567423301058565?t=eIPxXF4Qj7K3LX2FmDgrWg&...

Hopefully these shipments can be taken out.

[Virginiá]

US accuses North Korea of trying to hide shipments of ammunition to Russia

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/north-korea-russia-ammunition/index.html

The US is accusing North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells for the Ukraine war by concealing where they are being transported to, according to newly declassified intelligence.

US officials believe that the surreptitious North Korean shipments – along with drones and other weaponry that Russia has acquired from Iran – are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery arsenals have dwindled during eight months of combat. North Korea is trying to hide the shipments by making it appear as if the ammunition is being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa, the intelligence says.

[...]

The recent intelligence comes about two months after the US intelligence community said that it believed Russia was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield, CNN and other outlets reported at the time.

But for now, it’s unclear how impactful North Korea’s artillery shells will be to Russia on the battlefield.

In 2010, North Korea fired 170 122-millimeter shells at South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. Fewer than half hit the island, and of those, about a quarter failed to detonate – a high failure rate that “suggests that some DPRK-manufactured artillery munitions, especially (multiple rocket launcher) rounds, suffer from either poor quality control during manufacture or that storage conditions and standards are poor,” according to a 2016 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The last time that they made use of these systems showed that their systems were fairly inaccurate,” Mount said. “You’d expect these Soviet-era systems are aging so they will start to break down.”

NK sending large amounts of artillery ammunition to Russia, but quality could be dubious at best.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia capitulates on the grain deal: https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1587751974950371328

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

US accuses North Korea of trying to hide shipments of ammunition to Russia

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/north-korea-russia-ammunition/index.html

The US is accusing North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells for the Ukraine war by concealing where they are being transported to, according to newly declassified intelligence.

US officials believe that the surreptitious North Korean shipments – along with drones and other weaponry that Russia has acquired from Iran – are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery arsenals have dwindled during eight months of combat. North Korea is trying to hide the shipments by making it appear as if the ammunition is being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa, the intelligence says.

[...]

The recent intelligence comes about two months after the US intelligence community said that it believed Russia was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield, CNN and other outlets reported at the time.

But for now, it’s unclear how impactful North Korea’s artillery shells will be to Russia on the battlefield.

In 2010, North Korea fired 170 122-millimeter shells at South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. Fewer than half hit the island, and of those, about a quarter failed to detonate – a high failure rate that “suggests that some DPRK-manufactured artillery munitions, especially (multiple rocket launcher) rounds, suffer from either poor quality control during manufacture or that storage conditions and standards are poor,” according to a 2016 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The last time that they made use of these systems showed that their systems were fairly inaccurate,” Mount said. “You’d expect these Soviet-era systems are aging so they will start to break down.”

NK sending large amounts of artillery ammunition to Russia, but quality could be dubious at best.

Kirby said, "We will continue to monitor whether these shipments are received," which is an interesting choice of words. It might imply they are being sent to Russia via some indirect route and have not arrived yet.

Quality may be crap but NK has massive quantities and - even more so than Iran - Russia has a lot to offer the heavily sanctioned country.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia capitulates on the grain deal: https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1587751974950371328

Their bluff called, excellent.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1587825130834743297

[Torie]

Here is an opinion piece that posits Western war fatigue, the coming Pub wave undermining resolve, and thus it is time for the US to twist Ukraine's arm to give up more territory, in exchange for ... drum roll please... essentially nothing, no NATO, no security guarantees, nothing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/opinion/russia-ukraine-negotiation.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

Here is an opinion piece that posits Western war fatigue, the coming Pub wave undermining resolve, and thus it is time for the US to twist Ukraine's arm to give no more territory, in exchange for ... drum roll please... essentially nothing, no NATO, no security guarantees, nothing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/opinion/russia-ukraine-negotiation.html

I doubt Putin is paying this dude so he’s just making an ass out of himself for the love of the game?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1587340780019990528?s=20&t=dMYLO5jNK9Nwl...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1587182889002827780?s=20&t=0TfcxmhWdRLQ...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1587470288651943937?s=20&t=dMYLO5jNK9N...

[Virginiá]

Good on Spain - 4 Hawk air defense systems, 1 Aspide air defense battery, and anti-tank weapons / other ammo.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1587863507592257536

The Hawk system is old but still capable against drones/cruise missiles & aircraft, and there are tons of these systems laying around unused right now. Glad there is movement on these.

[2952-0-0]

US accuses North Korea of trying to hide shipments of ammunition to Russia

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/north-korea-russia-ammunition/index.html

The US is accusing North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells for the Ukraine war by concealing where they are being transported to, according to newly declassified intelligence.

US officials believe that the surreptitious North Korean shipments – along with drones and other weaponry that Russia has acquired from Iran – are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery arsenals have dwindled during eight months of combat. North Korea is trying to hide the shipments by making it appear as if the ammunition is being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa, the intelligence says.

[...]

The recent intelligence comes about two months after the US intelligence community said that it believed Russia was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield, CNN and other outlets reported at the time.

But for now, it’s unclear how impactful North Korea’s artillery shells will be to Russia on the battlefield.

In 2010, North Korea fired 170 122-millimeter shells at South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. Fewer than half hit the island, and of those, about a quarter failed to detonate – a high failure rate that “suggests that some DPRK-manufactured artillery munitions, especially (multiple rocket launcher) rounds, suffer from either poor quality control during manufacture or that storage conditions and standards are poor,” according to a 2016 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The last time that they made use of these systems showed that their systems were fairly inaccurate,” Mount said. “You’d expect these Soviet-era systems are aging so they will start to break down.”

NK sending large amounts of artillery ammunition to Russia, but quality could be dubious at best.

Meanwhile, South Korea has been sending MANPADs to Ukraine, officially as sales to the Czech Republic.

Has this become a proxy war between the two Koreas?

[Virginiá]

https://militarymonitoring.com/poland-to-help-ukraine-integrate-soviet-su-24-bombers-with-nato-scalp-missiles/

oland will integrate Soviet Su-24 bombers with NATO SCALP missiles. The Polish military is waiting for the arrival of the first Su-24M bomber of the 7th brigade of tactical aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Experts plan to ensure the integration of the Ukrainian aircraft with NATO-standard missiles.

Ukraine’s closest ally has two large aircraft repair factories that work with Western weapons. These are the WZL aviation military factories in Warsaw and Bydgoszcz, as well as the PZL State Aviation Plant in Mielec, next to which the Rzeszów military airfield is located.

The Polish factories already have experience equipping the MiG-29 with HARM AGM-88 anti-radar missiles. Now military engineers are faced with the task of equipping Su-24M with Guided Cruise Missiles Storm Shadow or SCALP. These missiles have an infrared homing head and a range of up to 300 km. They are in service in several NATO countries and have already been effectively used in the Middle East.

Not sure how accurate this is, but that would be very helpful, particularly with the US still cowering in fear over sending ATACMS.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Good on Spain - 4 Hawk air defense systems, 1 Aspide air defense battery, and anti-tank weapons / other ammo.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1587863507592257536
The Hawk system is old but still capable against drones/cruise missiles & aircraft, and there are tons of these systems laying around unused right now. Glad there is movement on these.

It's still unclear what quantity is meant by "4 Hawk systems" and I doubt they have been sent so soon after the first announcements. Don't they require 6+ months of training under normal circumstances?

W.r.t. the South Korean MANPADS- that rumour showed up a month ago and there's been no visual evidence since. It could be true, but I'm disinclined to believe it - surely the first thing they'd send would be artillery ammunition rather than a new, more inconspicuous system.

W.r.t the Storm Shadow/SCALP rumours - the linked source provides no author. If it could work, it'd make sense, but the first I heard of that rumour was from the Rybar Telegram channel a few days ago and they have a nasty habit of spewing rumours about unannounced arms deliveries being responsible for the latest Russian embarrassment.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukrainian defence ministry is cringing it up to eleven. It's like Tyler Durden always said... only after you have lost everything, you are free to do anything.


https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1587738320477503489

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1587470288651943937?s=20&t=dMYLO5jNK9N...

We keep getting these reports and then nothing changes in terms of territorial control. It's been going on for like two months at this point. Clearly something is happening there but it's hard to trust any Twitter takes about it.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1587470288651943937?s=20&t=dMYLO5jNK9N...

We keep getting these reports and then nothing changes in terms of territorial control. It's been going on for like two months at this point. Clearly something is happening there but it's hard to trust any Twitter takes about it.

Yeah, the battle for Kherson has been about to happen any day now for a month. I assume we're in the mud season stalemate for at least a couple more weeks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1587470288651943937?s=20&t=dMYLO5jNK9N...

We keep getting these reports and then nothing changes in terms of territorial control. It's been going on for like two months at this point. Clearly something is happening there but it's hard to trust any Twitter takes about it.

It could be as simple as Russia preparing for the possibility of loss rather than conceding it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1587115429536837633?t=9ZMbP317lOG_lK0k0wva2A&...

[Virginiá]

It's still unclear what quantity is meant by "4 Hawk systems" and I doubt they have been sent so soon after the first announcements. Don't they require 6+ months of training under normal circumstances?

Not sure about the training time but the first quote from an EU official weeks ago referenced 4 "launchers" whereas this latest one was from a Ukrainian official at a joint presser that said systems. I'm inclined to believe it is 4 distinct systems until otherwise stated.

W.r.t. the South Korean MANPADS- that rumour showed up a month ago and there's been no visual evidence since. It could be true, but I'm disinclined to believe it - surely the first thing they'd send would be artillery ammunition rather than a new, more inconspicuous system.

The first story about this referenced manpads and artillery ("canon") ammunition. It was said to be a nearly 3 billion dollar deal, so it seems very unlikely to me that it would just be MANPADs. In fact, it seems like it would be even more than a crapload of Chiron MANPADs and artillery shells too, unless they are buying literally millions of shells (or are paying significant sums for each).

I'm not thinking about this potential deal too much until I start seeing more information or visual evidence of the actual weapons. If it is real then we should see significant evidence of it when those shells/weapons hit the battlefield.