Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Moving a large portion of the manufacturing process underground and in an area under the protection of IRIS-T/NASAMS may help them keep production online. Particularly if they can decentralize some of it as well.

With all the outside support Ukraine has, and the introduction of modern air defenses, reestablishing some level of production was likely inevitable.

edit:

This was from September:

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ukroboronprom-says-its-building-ammunition-factory-together-with-nato-member-state

I still do feel like this is NOT in Ukraine if they partnered with another country. I suppose you could assume the other country helped them establish the machinery and other tools, but it makes more sense to build it out of the country to avoid being subjected not only to potential missile strikes but also energy supply issues due to the country's energy grid problems.

It is extremely difficult to build modern era manufacturing lines from scratch.

It is also extremely time intensive to repurpose existing manufacturing lines and convert them to alternative manufacturing capabilities.

In my experience from working the US MFG sector, it can easily take 9-24 Months in order to get all of the tooling in place, even after NOCs , "Design Bid Build" processes, with all of the MEPs in place, especially when relocating tooling from EMEA or Asia-Pacific MFG Plants.

The idea of Ukraine building "brand new" MFG facilities within Ukraine proper, especially a facility as sensitive as an armament production facility, and pumping out serious quantities of military hardware is a bit absurd, at this present moment.

Project lead time itself would likely make it unfeasible as a short-term attempt to increase Ukrainian domestic armaments output.

Sure, it is possible that certain armament components could be manufactured as part of "Final Assembly" operations in Ukraine, with various EU MFG lines and supply chain and channel partners to be able to quickly create "underground armaments factories", but in order to make that conversion quick and easy would presume that all of the infrastructure is basically in place, and that there are established mechanisms to protect the facility(s), when it comes to everything from walls designed to contain accidental detonation of explosives (Fire Rating), Life Safety System (Fire Suppression Systems), and although Ukraine is arguably in an "asymmetrical warfare" scenario versus the much vaunted and feared "Russian Bear", it is pretty clear that Ukraine has options other than just simply creating new targets for Russian "Dumb Bombs" and "Suicide Drones", where neighboring countries might be able to maintain plausible deniability before the product goes to "Final Assembly" in Ukraine.

[jaichind]

Russia's anti-Ukraine proxy vote in the UN on "combating glorification of Nazism".   Russia got all the BRICS to come along as well as a large part of the Global South.  Turkey Mexico Egypt and interestingly ROK stayed neutral.  Against of course are the collective West and allied states.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia's anti-Ukraine proxy vote in the UN on "combating glorification of Nazism".   They got all the BRICS to come along as well as a large part of the Global South.  Turkey Mexico Egypt and interestingly ROK stayed neutral.

A bit surprised Serbia's neutral. But then I remember they're trying to join the European Union...

[jaichind]

Russia's anti-Ukraine proxy vote in the UN on "combating glorification of Nazism".   They got all the BRICS to come along as well as a large part of the Global South.  Turkey Mexico Egypt and interestingly ROK stayed neutral.

A bit surprised Serbia's neutral. But then I remember they're trying to join the European Union...

Russia's new talking point: Russia is the true SJW.  Note how most "White" states are against "combating glorification of Nazism" but Russia is solidly against it.  Russia is the true symbol of diversity and inclusion in the world.

[Woody]

More American volunteers killed in Ukraine


https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1588329767761223682
https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1587965835699699713
https://twitter.com/edwinapaloo/status/1588478504295071745

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia's anti-Ukraine proxy vote in the UN on "combating glorification of Nazism".   They got all the BRICS to come along as well as a large part of the Global South.  Turkey Mexico Egypt and interestingly ROK stayed neutral.

A bit surprised Serbia's neutral. But then I remember they're trying to join the European Union...

Russia's new talking point: Russia is the true SJW.  Note how most "White" states are against "combating glorification of Nazism" but Russia is solidly against it.  Russia is the true symbol of diversity and inclusion in the world.

And then, cut to images of people from all backgrounds fighting against Ukraine...

[jaichind]

Russia's new talking point: Russia is the true SJW.  Note how most "White" states are against "combating glorification of Nazism" but Russia is solidly against it.  Russia is the true symbol of diversity and inclusion in the world.

And then, cut to images of people from all backgrounds fighting against Ukraine...

Which is really just this


Where Republicans = Putin pre 2014
          Democrats = Putin post 2014

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia's anti-Ukraine proxy vote in the UN on "combating glorification of Nazism".   Russia got all the BRICS to come along as well as a large part of the Global South.  Turkey Mexico Egypt and interestingly ROK stayed neutral.  Against of course are the collective West and allied states.

How nice and laudable - is Russia going to be doing away with the Z symbol, then?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia's anti-Ukraine proxy vote in the UN on "combating glorification of Nazism".   Russia got all the BRICS to come along as well as a large part of the Global South.  Turkey Mexico Egypt and interestingly ROK stayed neutral.  Against of course are the collective West and allied states.

How nice and laudable - is Russia going to be doing away with the Z symbol, then?

The Putin narrative heavily, heavily borrows from the Great Patriotic War, casting this as a war to defend Russia, etc.
Nonsense about Ukraine allegedly being a Nazi state is mostly for domestic consumption (though there's an international propoganda angle to it as well). Russia has just as much time as the US does to fight the "glorification of Nazism"...aka, no time as all. The Nazis were defeated almost 80 years ago.

[Logical]

Orban went from a young firebrand crying "Ruszkik haza!" to a pathetic worm who won't even name the murderers of 1956.
https://twitter.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1588575732548001794

[Person Man]

Orban went from a young firebrand crying "Ruszkik haza!" to a pathetic worm who won't even name the murderers of 1956.
https://twitter.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1588575732548001794

Cuck

[Frodo]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

[Woody]

Kyiv might see total evacuation of it's residents due to constant blackouts.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/world/europe/kyiv-ukraine-electricity-russia-infrastructure.html

KYIV, Ukraine — As they struggle to maintain an electricity grid heavily damaged by Russian missiles, officials in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, say they have begun planning for a once unthinkable possibility: a complete blackout that would require the evacuation of the city’s approximately three million remaining residents.

The situation is already so dire, with 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure damaged or destroyed, that municipal workers are setting up 1,000 heating shelters that can double as bunkers while engineers try to fix bombed-out power stations without the needed equipment.

Officials in the capital have been told that they would be likely to have at least 12 hours’ notice that the grid was on the verge of failure. If it reaches that point, Mr. Tkachuk said, “we will start informing people and requesting them to leave.”

Ukraine’s national electric utility, Ukrenergo, confirmed on Saturday the need to continue rolling blackouts, saying they were necessary to “reduce the load on the networks, ensure sustainable balancing of the power system and avoid repeated accidents after the power grids were damaged by Russian missile and drone attacks.”

[SnowLabrador]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Talk about appeasement, or lack thereof, is likely neither here or there. Merely having talks is not appeasement.

[Silent Hunter]

All wars end with talks of some description, even if it's about surrender.

[jaichind]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Well, there is a whole spectrum of results between "Russia getting its way" and "status quo antebellum" which is where I think we will eventually end up.  It just seems Ukraine thinks that "status quo antebellum" is possible so they are just going to fight on until it becomes clear it is not possible in their view.  Of course, if the collective West defines "Russia getting its way" being anything other than "status quo antebellum" then we are in for a long period of protracted war and there is no point in talks anyway.

[SnowLabrador]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Well, there is a whole spectrum of results between "Russia getting its way" and "status quo antebellum" which is where I think we will eventually end up.  It just seems Ukraine thinks that "status quo antebellum" is possible so they are just going to fight on until it becomes clear it is not possible in their view.  Of course, if the collective West defines "Russia getting its way" being anything other than "status quo antebellum" then we are in for a long period of protracted war and there is no point in talks anyway.

If Russia comes away with an acre more territory than they started this war with, they will see it as a success and are likely to invade again. Even if Putin dies, he'll just be replaced by someone even worse.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/medvedev-says-russia-is-fighting-sacred-battle-against-satan-2022-11-04/

"Medvedev says Russia is fighting a sacred battle against Satan"

This is pretty absurd.  If Russia is truly fighting against Satan one would think it would spend more than 5% of its GDP on that struggle.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Well, there is a whole spectrum of results between "Russia getting its way" and "status quo antebellum" which is where I think we will eventually end up.  It just seems Ukraine thinks that "status quo antebellum" is possible so they are just going to fight on until it becomes clear it is not possible in their view.  Of course, if the collective West defines "Russia getting its way" being anything other than "status quo antebellum" then we are in for a long period of protracted war and there is no point in talks anyway.

If Russia comes away with an acre more territory than they started this war with, they will see it as a success and are likely to invade again. Even if Putin dies, he'll just be replaced by someone even worse.

Both of these points are totally evidence-free assertions.

The truth is rather that any Russian "gains" should be seen by them as having an unacceptably high price - that ultimately is the true force of "deterrence".

[Omega21]

Both of these points are totally evidence-free assertions.

The truth is rather that any Russian "gains" should be seen by them as having an unacceptably high price - that ultimately is the true force of "deterrence".

Little sensible posts like this are the only reason I still sometimes come back to the thread.

Otherwise, this thread has basically turned into:

1. SLAVA UKRAINI

2. Russia fascist

(Yes, Russia is the aggressor. Yes, Putin is a c**t. - but it becomes annoying after the 151st time)

3. haha Russia have 100k KIA, Ukraine has 300 wounded in total. 101 to 1 ratio confirmed by Ukraine General Staff.

4. Constant videos of RU armor getting destroyed, 0 videos of UA taking losses (plenty new footage of dozens of UA armor getting destroyed available on Twitter daily)

5. NOOO Jaichind, why are you posting bad economic data about Europe, are you Putin bootlicker??

And my favorite:

6. Putin is a mad man, and he would definitely collapse if he lost Crimea, but he would 10001% not use nukes to prevent that, so push on Ukraine, go into Belgorod!!!!!!!!


In short, 90% of people here are simply detached from reality.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

Reading the article it seems that it’s not actually us asking them to soften their stance but asking them to just publicly state they are willing to negotiate just for an optics standpoint

[Frodo]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Well, there is a whole spectrum of results between "Russia getting its way" and "status quo antebellum" which is where I think we will eventually end up.  It just seems Ukraine thinks that "status quo antebellum" is possible so they are just going to fight on until it becomes clear it is not possible in their view.  Of course, if the collective West defines "Russia getting its way" being anything other than "status quo antebellum" then we are in for a long period of protracted war and there is no point in talks anyway.

If Russia comes away with an acre more territory than they started this war with, they will see it as a success and are likely to invade again. Even if Putin dies, he'll just be replaced by someone even worse.

Both of these points are totally evidence-free assertions.

The truth is rather that any Russian "gains" should be seen by them as having an unacceptably high price - that ultimately is the true force of "deterrence".

I don't think Putin cares about whether his 'victory' is pyrrhic or not, just so long as he can spin it as such for future (mis)adventures. 

[Omega21]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Well, there is a whole spectrum of results between "Russia getting its way" and "status quo antebellum" which is where I think we will eventually end up.  It just seems Ukraine thinks that "status quo antebellum" is possible so they are just going to fight on until it becomes clear it is not possible in their view.  Of course, if the collective West defines "Russia getting its way" being anything other than "status quo antebellum" then we are in for a long period of protracted war and there is no point in talks anyway.

If Russia comes away with an acre more territory than they started this war with, they will see it as a success and are likely to invade again. Even if Putin dies, he'll just be replaced by someone even worse.

Both of these points are totally evidence-free assertions.

The truth is rather that any Russian "gains" should be seen by them as having an unacceptably high price - that ultimately is the true force of "deterrence".

I don't think Putin cares about whether his 'victory' is pyrrhic or not, just so long as he can spin it as such for future (mis)adventures. 

He can spin till he turns blue in the face.

The fact is, judging by the losses being taken in the meatgrinder this is turning out to be, his ability to project power will not fully recover before he kicks the can.