Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

if Trump was president, Putin would've invaded Ukraine, Trump would have justified and defended it, Ukraine would receive zero aid from America and we'd probably share intel with Putin, meanwhile most of Europe would still be on Ukraine's side but without American leadership they'd be disorganized and ineffective.  So the divide between America and Europe would widen further, the residents of Kiev would be exported to Siberia and their children kidnapped and sold to wealthy Russian families, and Putin would be emboldened to start planning his attacks on other nearby states as he continues trying to rebuild the USSR, which for some reason you fully support.

Lib brain emotional fantasy.

How do you know? Trump warned about Nord Stream. Events such as Syria, Georiga, Crimea, etc.. never happened under his watch. Status quo between West and East. We already have a record to se from Trump. And now, same with Biden: biggest land war since WWII

I mean Trump also extorted Zelensky so we know more or less how he felt about Ukraine as well as about Russia...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

“Evacuation” of civilians from Kherson city potentially facilitates the following:
- Using them as human shields to evacuate men and materiel
- Sending them one way and men/materiel the other
- Reducing the logistical burden of supplying Kherson city by reducing the number of mouths to feed

Highlighted as the following may be relevant:

https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1582603732424216581

No doubt some very painful choices for Ukraine here.

[jaichind]

Putin must be so relieved by this point -he knows now he can depend on the Republican Party to come through for him in the end.  All he has to do is hold on for just a few more months until Congress changes hands in January:

McCarthy: No 'blank check' for Ukraine if GOP wins majority

Congress should just authorize, like, a trillion dollars of military aid to Ukraine at the DoD's discretion during the lame duck session. There, nothing McCarthy can do to undo that.

My canary in the coal mine is NY Post and Ted Cruz.  Both still seem solid in the anti-Russia line so in that sense Ukraine has nothing to worry about.  Of course, once the GOP takes over the House and maybe Senate they will get their domestic political pound of flesh from Biden to route more aid to Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russian-oligarch-visits-istanbuls-bosphorus-177789

"Russian oligarch visits Istanbul’s Bosphorus"

Harbinger of future foreign living locations of Russian oligarchs? Clearly it will not be London

[Storr]

More Russian media efforts to condition the public for a strategic/tactical withdrawal from Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipro River:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582794925304729601?s=20&t=O8JJeNX...

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/madagascar-minister-fired-voting-against-russias-ukraine-annexation-2022-10-19/

"Madagascar minister fired for voting against Russia's Ukraine annexation"

[Virginiá]

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

You seriously think Putin cared about Trump in the context of Ukraine? Is your opinion of the world really that Trump-centric? Putin's interests in Ukraine had nothing to do with Trump and if anything, he would have seen Trump as an ideal leader to give the least resistance to his plans given how permissive Trump was to Putin compared to other American presidents.

This idea that Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine because of Trump is one of the dumbest things said yet about this war.

Lib brain emotional fantasy.

How do you know? [...]

Oh, and how would you know? You just think everything would be better with Trump and you're blatantly projecting that onto the war in Ukraine.

[YPestis25]

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russian-oligarch-visits-istanbuls-bosphorus-177789

"Russian oligarch visits Istanbul’s Bosphorus"

Harbinger of future foreign living locations of Russian oligarchs? Clearly it will not be London

Broke: Russia is invading to conquer Ukraine.

Woke: Russia is invading as a diversion for their ultimate plan to acquire the Straits.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

You seriously think Putin cared about Trump in the context of Ukraine? Is your opinion of the world really that Trump-centric? Putin's interests in Ukraine had nothing to do with Trump and if anything, he would have seen Trump as an ideal leader to give the least resistance to his plans given how permissive Trump was to Putin compared to other American presidents.

This idea that Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine because of Trump is one of the dumbest things said yet about this war.

Lib brain emotional fantasy.

How do you know? [...]

Oh, and how would you know? You just think everything would be better with Trump and you're blatantly projecting that onto the war in Ukraine.

Amen.

[Person Man]

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russian-oligarch-visits-istanbuls-bosphorus-177789

"Russian oligarch visits Istanbul’s Bosphorus"

Harbinger of future foreign living locations of Russian oligarchs? Clearly it will not be London

Broke: Russia is invading to conquer Ukraine.

Woke: Russia is invading as a diversion for their ultimate plan to acquire the Straits.

We will have a new King Constantine I of the Romans! Whether it’s just straits + East Thrace or everything between Belgrade, Varna, Haifa, and Ankara.

[Torie]

“Evacuation” of civilians from Kherson city potentially facilitates the following:
- Using them as human shields to evacuate men and materiel
- Sending them one way and men/materiel the other
- Reducing the logistical burden of supplying Kherson city by reducing the number of mouths to feed

Highlighted as the following may be relevant:

https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1582603732424216581
No doubt some very painful choices for Ukraine here.

I think you got it. Well done. Thanks for your post. It makes total sense.

[NOVA Green]

Lockheed Martin plans to boost its production of HIMARS long-range rocket artillery systems from 60 launchers annually to 96, Politico reported Tuesday, citing the company’s CEO, James Taiclet, who spoke at a third-quarter earnings call.

Last month, the Pentagon said it would double its commitment of HIMARS rocket systems to Ukraine as part of a $1.1 billion aid package.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/19/russia-ukraine-putin-martial-law-live-updates/#link-32U6ELGGHBGD7FUZSDNQGU5KHA

[NOVA Green]

Major coordinated hacks basically nabbed 13 Tb of data involving the Wagner Group, which are now publicly available

Link to Tweet below, and link to the https address below that, at bottom of page link to the DDO website which has posted the documents in full.

https://twitter.com/theintercept/status/1582824375539367936?s=20&t=SSU58skdc...

https://theintercept.com/2022/10/19/russia-hack-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin/

https://ddosecrets.com/wiki/Distributed_Denial_of_Secrets

[NOVA Green]

Reports of heavy gunfire in a Kherson City Neighborhood tonight...

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1582863900847968256?s=20&t=SSU58skdc...

[walleye26]

Reports of heavy gunfire in a Kherson City Neighborhood tonight...

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1582863900847968256?s=20&t=SSU58skdc...

Let’s hope that this is Ukrainian partisans who have been waiting for the right moment. I really hope that Ukraine is launching their long awaited counterattack to liberate it.

[NOVA Green]

Reports of heavy gunfire in a Kherson City Neighborhood tonight...

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1582863900847968256?s=20&t=SSU58skdc...

Let’s hope that this is Ukrainian partisans who have been waiting for the right moment. I really hope that Ukraine is launching their long awaited counterattack to liberate it.

Could be a nothing burger, gray propaganda designed to create reactions on the ground, Russian soldiers committing mass atrocities, etc...

Maybe some Ukraine Scouting units & Special Ops have started to infiltrate the City, and moved into neighborhoods where there are linkages with existing Ukrainian Underground Partisan Resistance networks....

This could be a Ukrainian style attempt to emulate something like the Tet Offensive in Vietnam or the FMLN "Final Offensive of 1989".

Regardless, I suspect that reports like this will continue, but also that Ukrainian units are unlikely to attack with massive force until they reach the maximum favorable conditions and minimize casualties in attempt to liberate KC before the bad weather kicks in.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1582747094557020160?cxt=HHwWgMDSxZiGhvcrAAAA

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1582747094557020160?cxt=HHwWgMDSxZiGhvcrAAAA

Unfortunately still too many of them are getting through...

Interestingly enough, it appears once all of the promised Western Air Defense systems arrive, Ukraine will likely have the best Air Defense systems in Europe to deal with a wide variety of different air, missile, and drone attacks.

[NOVA Green]

Russia apparently attempting to resupply military operations in Occupied South Ukraine via Airlift...

Any of y'all of y'alls more informed folks out there have any idea about the vulnerabilities involved, capacity of the airlifts, and potential opportunities for Ukraine to target this new attempt for Russia to reduce the massive military supply chain operations they are currently experiencing on the Southern Front?

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1582805027499933696?s=20&t=jOc7bg4LEGRR1...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1582747094557020160?cxt=HHwWgMDSxZiGhvcrAAAA

Unfortunately still too many of them are getting through...

Interestingly enough, it appears once all of the promised Western Air Defense systems arrive, Ukraine will likely have the best Air Defense systems in Europe to deal with a wide variety of different air, missile, and drone attacks.

I suspect most of their air defence is and/or will be focused on the Russian artillery-spotting drones, loitering munitions and combat jets near the frontlines. The missiles and Iranian drones are eye-catching (and feed the Russian state-sponsored bloodthirst) but it seems they are mostly being used suboptimally these days. I suspect they are doing a whole lot less to impede Ukrainian progress than, for instance, the artillery spotting drones, which act as a force multiplier for howitzers, MLRS, etc.

When asking for Western support, Ukraine will still highlight the missiles and suicide drones - but this is because bombing cities provokes more outcry than using an Orlan-10 to help Russian guns target Ukrainian soldiers near the frontlines.

[CanadianDemocrat]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

if Trump was president, Putin would've invaded Ukraine, Trump would have justified and defended it, Ukraine would receive zero aid from America and we'd probably share intel with Putin, meanwhile most of Europe would still be on Ukraine's side but without American leadership they'd be disorganized and ineffective.  So the divide between America and Europe would widen further, the residents of Kiev would be exported to Siberia and their children kidnapped and sold to wealthy Russian families, and Putin would be emboldened to start planning his attacks on other nearby states as he continues trying to rebuild the USSR, which for some reason you fully support.

Lib brain emotional fantasy.

How do you know? Trump warned about Nord Stream. Events such as Syria, Georiga, Crimea, etc.. never happened under his watch. Status quo between West and East. We already have a record to se from Trump. And now, same with Biden: biggest land war since WWII

I mean Trump also extorted Zelensky so we know more or less how he felt about Ukraine as well as about Russia...

Trump said that Ukraine is not a real country, as it is filled with Russians and the Russian language. Trump shares Putin's genocidal beliefs on Ukraine.

Trump winning a second term would have been a disaster for Ukraine, NATO and the West.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Something is going on in Kherson

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582912382086832128
https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1582902740727959553

[NOVA Green]

Russian Government is now blocking Anti-Corruption websites:

Roskomnadzor, at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office, blocked the website of the anti-corruption project Metla

The Metla anti-corruption project reported that Roskomnadzor, at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office, blocked its website in Russia.

The reason for the blocking was "repeated placement of information disseminated in violation of the requirements of the legislation of the Russian Federation."

The project intends to continue its work in Telegram.

Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov said that from February 24 to early August, about 138,000 websites and pages were blocked in Russia. According to him, after the start of the war with Ukraine, the department tightened control over the “spread of calls for extremism and fake news.”

https://zona.media/news/2022/10/19/metla

[Storr]

The could develop into something interesting.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582853146527035392?s=20&t=P48MoiR...

[NOVA Green]

Insert with massive shakers of salt...

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1582903225157500930?s=20&t=Bhq5JtXt0Ib...