Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

So others have already answered the more relevant points, but on the last sentence, I've only seen a couple of Ukrainian flags and bumper stickers in my neighborhood (and I have yet to see a Russian flag, a Z, or an "I Stand with Russia" sign, but it wouldn't surprise me if a few are deluded enough to fly or post them). But one flag in particular stood out to me: it was in a back yard, and still visible from the street because it was a corner house, but it was a blue & yellow Ukrainian flag hoisted between two wooden posts. It looked more like something you would see in a frontline Ukrainian village than in Suburban NOVA. It looked more like it had been put up by young boys playing war than by tryhard "SJW" type libs.

Where I live there were tons of Ukraine flags on laws back in April and May.  Most of them are gone now.  Now there is a 100% correlation between Ukraine flags and BLM signs.  So we are down to the core SJW crowd.  The rest of them are still pro-Ukraine but has moved on as something they care about.

Well, screw your anecdotal evidence and I'll check it with my own. I've seen plenty of I stand with Ukraine signs in my neighborhood and overall region in front of houses I know for a fact to be those of political conservatives.

It doesn't require being "woke" to stand with Ukraine under basic values of humanity, you see. Rather, just don't be and utterly amoral nihilistic money-grubbing automaton with a black void where any sense of compassion and basic decency should be, mentioning no names of course.

[Badger]

Where I live there were tons of Ukraine flags on laws back in April and May.  Most of them are gone now.  Now there is a 100% correlation between Ukraine flags and BLM signs.  So we are down to the core SJW crowd.  The rest of them are still pro-Ukraine but has moved on as something they care about.

That post is almost surely wrong. First, there are people like me who are hardcore Ukraine supporters who are not SJW's, who don't put up flags on their lawn. Second, perhaps some don't think it appropriate to have such flags up indefinitely, due to aesthetics, or the point has been made, and so forth. It is not as if the merits have moved in Russia's favor. It is the opposite of course. Putin is doing his best to make himself second only to Hitler/Stalin in the pantheon of evil people in the modern era.

The US is f'ed up in so  many ways, but throwing Ukraine under the bus will not be one of them, unless it proves itself so insane as to bring Trump back into power.

Well, what I observe is not "wrong" because what I observed is what I observed.  Point taken on conclusion  I reached based on what I observed on the views of people in my area.  Not having a flag does not necessary mean lower level of support.   It could but it is not provable either way.  Although the chart below does show that even with Dems the salience of the issues is dropping.

So even by the statistics you cite, a near majority and solid plurality of even Republicans believe the amount of support where providing the Ukraine to be appropriate or even not enough comma whereas not even a third of Republicans think it's too much question mark

You know, for a guy who tries to style himself as a financial guru, you sure are s***** with numbers.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ughthehumanity/status/1583578903813029889?s=20&t=REU48xd...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/ughthehumanity/status/1583578903813029889?s=20&t=REU48xd...

I am surprised to see that Russia isn't practicing wholesale clearcutting of Ukrainian timber lands within occupied areas and using them for exactly that purpose.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ughthehumanity/status/1583578903813029889?s=20&t=REU48xd...

I am surprised to see that Russia isn't practicing wholesale clearcutting of Ukrainian timber lands within occupied areas and using them for exactly that purpose.

They probably are, but even this bears logistical challenges.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The weird thing about India's position is that they actually have a higher opinion of the United States than the United States, so that means there is a large contingent of pro-America/pro-Russia individuals.

[2952-0-0]

Well, screw your anecdotal evidence and I'll check it with my own. I've seen plenty of I stand with Ukraine signs in my neighborhood and overall region in front of houses I know for a fact to be those of political conservatives.

It doesn't require being "woke" to stand with Ukraine under basic values of humanity, you see. Rather, just don't be and utterly amoral nihilistic money-grubbing automaton with a black void where any sense of compassion and basic decency should be, mentioning no names of course.

Here in Canada, the most pro-Ukrainians are from Eastern European diasporas, for obvious reasons. The Ukrainian-Canadian diaspora has always been very active and mobilized, to the extent that there are even publicly-funded Ukrainian schools here in Toronto. This week, they even forced the cuckoo right-wing premier of Alberta to unconvincingly recant for her previous online posts that repeated Z talking points. Yet, this demographic tends to be socially conservative, and would be safe votes for right-wing parties. Over in Europe, the nation that has materially made the greatest sacrifice for Ukraine is Poland, led by a right-wing populist government that pushes all the usual buttons in its cultural war.

Also, one fact that the western media has overlooked about Ukraine, is that it's one of the most religiously devoted nations in Europe. Russia is, for all of Putin's play-prostrating before the altar, the least religious in Europe, and the least morally-proper in Europe (in terms of rates of divorce, abortion, birth out of wedlock, etc). That gives Ukrainians an additional sense of moral superiority over their enemy. They frame their war as defending Christian civilization itself, with their references to Russia as Mordor and Russian troops as orcs.

So the idea that somehow supporting Ukraine means buying into the woke-SJW agenda is total nonsense, if not wilful gaslighting.

[2952-0-0]

The weird thing about India's position is that they actually have a higher opinion of the United States than the United States, so that means there is a large contingent of pro-America/pro-Russia individuals.

It's not inconsistent. They could certainly admire the US for its technology, universities, wealth, entrepreneurialism, and so forth. The lineup for visas outside the US Embassy in every third-world country speaks for itself.

Many Indians also remember that the Soviets provided India with crucial aid in its first decades following independence. Millions of lives in India were saved because the Soviets provided basic vaccines for diseases, and the Soviets assisted in building India's first heavy industries. They also remember how Soviet intervention during the 1971 Bangladesh war probably prevented that war from going nuclear. That bought plenty of goodwill that leads to a good impression of Russia to this day.

[Storr]

Some Russian defense contractor made a killing selling these Kolpak 20's to the MoD:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583599221562695680?s=20&t=krfjUo...

[Hollywood]

The weird thing about India's position is that they actually have a higher opinion of the United States than the United States, so that means there is a large contingent of pro-America/pro-Russia individuals.

It's not inconsistent. They could certainly admire the US for its technology, universities, wealth, entrepreneurialism, and so forth. The lineup for visas outside the US Embassy in every third-world country speaks for itself.

Many Indians also remember that the Soviets provided India with crucial aid in its first decades following independence. Millions of lives in India were saved because the Soviets provided basic vaccines for diseases, and the Soviets assisted in building India's first heavy industries. They also remember how Soviet intervention during the 1971 Bangladesh war probably prevented that war from going nuclear. That bought plenty of goodwill that leads to a good impression of Russia to this day.

Russia is the Indian counterweight against China aggression along their borders either through direct conflict or proxy warfare.  Russia has proven to be a more reliable geopolitical strategic partner than the United States for the reasons you mentioned, but also due to the strategic rivals around its borders such as Pakistan, Iran, Sri Lanka, Burma, and, more recent, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and the East African (Nile Basin) Nations.  Even the Israeli-India relationship is viewed as more reliable.   

The last US administration wanted to use the rift between China and India during Covid-19 as a means to put a greater check on the CCP.  There was a public outcry among numerous SE Asian, Middle-East, and African populations.  India and China even had a few skirmishes.  Increasing tensions would have put pressure on BRICS, and Russia would have been forced to pick sides.  It's not like Russia isn't hacked by Chinese Cyber Warriors on a regular basis. 

[NOVA Green]

So as multiple previous posters have mentioned over the past week or so, concerns have been increasing about a potential "3rd Front" emerging within the current status of the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0.

This one involves the potential reemergence of a potential combined Russian and Belarussian assault from the North along the 650 km border between Ukraine and Russia.

Personally, I am extremely skeptical this is in the cards and generally suspect this is more of an attempt to tie down Ukrainian BTGs against a potential 2nd invasion from the North.

Russia is massing thousands of troops in its western neighbor Belarus, raising fears that Moscow might plan to open a new front in its war against Ukraine, but officials from Kyiv to Washington are casting doubt on whether the military buildup represents a serious threat.

With Russia already struggling to defend territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, it can ill afford to pick a new fight on a third front in the north on the border with Belarus, officials and analysts say.

Britain’s Defense Ministry said in an intelligence assessment on Friday that the flurry of military activity in Belarus is “likely an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border.”

Some Western officials say the Russian move is probably just a feint or a training mission, while others say it could be preparation for an attack, though likely not a very effective one, but their views come with a heavy dose of uncertainty.

NYT Link...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/world/europe/ukraine-belarus-russian-troops.html

[NOVA Green]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

[Woody]

More strikes

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1583712495948115969?cxt=HHwWgsCttfmHvforA...
https://twitter.com/EIGARBARINO/status/1583717304772091904
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1583702986005483520
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1583700788248858625
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1583719955375493121

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -5.9%        +2.9%       +1.7%      +3.9%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment (should be something like 0.6% higher than this number for a fair comparison)

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -2.5%       -0.1%         +0.4%       -0.4%      +5.0%        +1.4%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.3%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.2%

First a technical point.  In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

Similar trends as Sept.  Collective West prospects getting worse, especially for 2023.  Russia's prospects getting better.  Early this year the expected cumulative GDP fall for Russia in 2022 and 2023 was expected to be something like -11%.  Now it is expected to be around -8.5%. Japan and PRC got slightly worse.  On the CPI front, not been much change.  I am not displaying it here but CPI expectations for 2023 for the collective West are getting worse and worse over time.

With the chaos in the UK and the potential energy crisis in the EU, these numbers could get even worse for them over the next few months.

[CumbrianLefty]

So as multiple previous posters have mentioned over the past week or so, concerns have been increasing about a potential "3rd Front" emerging within the current status of the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0.

This one involves the potential reemergence of a potential combined Russian and Belarussian assault from the North along the 650 km border between Ukraine and Russia.

Personally, I am extremely skeptical this is in the cards and generally suspect this is more of an attempt to tie down Ukrainian BTGs against a potential 2nd invasion from the North.

Russia is massing thousands of troops in its western neighbor Belarus, raising fears that Moscow might plan to open a new front in its war against Ukraine, but officials from Kyiv to Washington are casting doubt on whether the military buildup represents a serious threat.

With Russia already struggling to defend territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, it can ill afford to pick a new fight on a third front in the north on the border with Belarus, officials and analysts say.

Britain’s Defense Ministry said in an intelligence assessment on Friday that the flurry of military activity in Belarus is “likely an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border.”

Some Western officials say the Russian move is probably just a feint or a training mission, while others say it could be preparation for an attack, though likely not a very effective one, but their views come with a heavy dose of uncertainty.

NYT Link...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/world/europe/ukraine-belarus-russian-troops.html

I just can't see Belarus entering the war, for the already well known and much rehearsed reasons.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -5.9%        +2.9%       +1.7%      +3.9%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment (should be something like 0.6% higher than this number for a fair comparison)

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -2.5%       -0.1%         +0.4%       -0.4%      +5.0%        +1.4%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.3%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.2%

First a technical point.  In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

Similar trends as Sept.  Collective West prospects getting worse, especially for 2023.  Russia's prospects getting better.  Early this year the expected cumulative GDP fall for Russia in 2022 and 2023 was expected to be something like -11%.  Now it is expected to be around -8.5%. Japan and PRC got slightly worse.  On the CPI front, not been much change.  I am not displaying it here but CPI expectations for 2023 for the collective West are getting worse and worse over time.

With the chaos in the UK and the potential energy crisis in the EU, these numbers could get even worse for them over the next few months.

Your tables are pretty unreadable, at least on a phone. It took me a while to figure out that the numbers for Russia and Japan appear in the same column, which is a bit confusing.

"Collective West" is, as I understand it, a term coined and almost exclusively used by Putin supporters, so thanks for being so honest and showing your true colours.

With the chaos in the UK and the potential energy crisis in the EU, these numbers could get even worse for them over the next few months.

I think the key words used here are "potential" and "could". It's one of several possible scenarios... a worst case scenario, if you will. As I like to say so often, the worst case scenario isn't necessarily the most likely scenario, so maybe it would make more sense to talk about what's most likely instead of terrible things that "could" happen.

[Hollywood]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

[Logical]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

[Hollywood]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

What exactly are you attempting to express with that picture?  That guy is irrelevant and boring.  The evidence of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side is posted on the MilitaryZ Channel located on Rumble, and reports from the Russian front can be found on the Rybar Telegram Channel.  I've been able to confirm Russian Journalist and Military Reports via video.   
https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

[jaichind]

I wonder if Ukraine is exaggerating the scale of damage so Russia does not focus on the energy grid as much and disincentivizes Russia from adjusting and changing tactics to make their attacks more lethal.  Back in WWII the UK exaggerated the scope of V1 attack damage so the Germans do not work to make their V1 attacks more accurate and lethal.

Taking down an energy system and keeping it down is actually not easy and will require a lot of work over time to achieve.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1583748505801150464

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the love of God people stop engaging posters who are engaging in bad faith and do nothing but drag the conversation down. Stop. Just stop. There's an ignore button. Use it.

[jaichind]

What exactly are you attempting to express with that picture?  That guy is irrelevant and boring.  The evidence of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side is posted on the MilitaryZ Channel located on Rumble, and reports from the Russian front can be found on the Rybar Telegram Channel.  I've been able to confirm Russian Journalist and Military Reports via video.   
https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

Based on similar pictures from a few days ago I found this guy and watched some of his videos.  He actually never promises the fall of Bakhmut anytime soon.  His description of the situation is similar to my understanding, that the Wagner group is making slow and incremental progress on Bakhmut which over time could lead to the capture of Bakhmut.  He does share rumors of a possible quick fall of Bakhmut but does qualify them as rumors.  I think his video titles are click bate like to get people to watch.

[Logical]

Meanhile: "Live From Bakhmut" courtesy of WaPo

The crash and roar of artillery rarely stops in this east Ukrainian city. In the cold and broken houses, residents huddle by candlelight and pray that they have safety in numbers. On the battlefield, soldiers on both sides are dying in droves.

After a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation. Instead, Prigozhin is pouring waves of mercenaries from Wagner into battle, appearing to see political advantage in capturing Bakhmut as a military trophy while President Vladimir Putin’s regular forces are on the back foot elsewhere.

Outgunned and outnumbered, exhausted Ukrainian troops are relying on nimbler tactics to withstand the brutal battle, monitoring enemy lines with civilian drones as newly recruited engineers experiment with customized weapons from pop-up laboratories in abandoned buildings nearby.

Across four locations in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian soldiers described how Wagner troops at times appear to have been used almost as cannon fodder. “They’re treating them like single-use soldiers,” said Volodymyr, 24, the commander of a self-propelled artillery unit, as he waited on spotters to call in a new target. Usually it was infantry, he said.

From the 93rd Brigade’s position, drone operators have seen the mercenaries stumble over the bodies of fallen comrades as they advance.

A Russian reporter who filmed Wagner’s front-line positions near Bakhmut late last month reported that Prigozhin’s son was fighting there, and interviewed him, without identifying him by name.

Ukraine’s casualties are also heavy. Ambulances shuttled back and forth between the Ukrainian firing positions last week, apparently carrying wounded men from the front line.

The day before, they said, another company had been surrounded by Russian forces, and fired upon. “There weren’t even pieces of them left,” said one of the soldiers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of describing Ukrainian casualties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/22/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-war/

I'm amused by the allegations that the Wagner Group is being used as "Canon Fodder" juxtaposed with with the last two quotes about how 1) Ukraine Suffered Heavy Losses throughout the week; and 2) a Company was completely annihilated after Russians surrounded them.  It's no secret that the Russians are obliterating companies, platoons, and Battalions of Ukrainian Troops from the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut direction, because Russian Reporters and Military Personnel have released the footage.  I've seen hundreds of videos with Ukrainian armored vehicles and dead bodies littered along an offensive line.  The most important takeaway from the WAPO's 'anonymous source' is that Ukraine is lying about its casualties, and Soldiers will be punished if they share accurate information or depictions about the grim situation on the ground.  The same fate has already befallen the brigades attacking from the Kharkiv Direction, as reports already indicate that they're line rolled over the last several days of fighting. UAF retreated to positions on the Western Bank of the Zherebets River, while defeated/destroyed groups are preparing for an assault on Lyman.

The Ukrainians have good reason to be worried about an assault from the Belgorod Direction, because their Troops would be trapped between the Zherebets, Oskill, and Siversky-Donetsk Rivers.   I can see from the Ukrainian Map that the Russians are trying to roll up their forces near Kup'yansk. Meanwhile, the Russian drone and missile assault on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure will create disarray for the coordination of troops and supplies.  I think 60% of the Ukraine is currently in the dark, so I have to imagine the Russians are going to make a big move soon.
https://liveuamap.com/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa6UnXgAEd7QE?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffpa5OWXoAAuZbW?format=jpg&name=medium

What exactly are you attempting to express with that picture?  That guy is irrelevant and boring.  The evidence of casualties suffered on the Ukrainian side is posted on the MilitaryZ Channel located on Rumble, and reports from the Russian front can be found on the Rybar Telegram Channel.  I've been able to confirm Russian Journalist and Military Reports via video.   
https://rumble.com/v1p38zx-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1p38z3-10.22.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

Russian parrots repeat the same lines over and over again but the front lines does not lie. Russians have made almost no progress in the last 3 months. They've been screaming endlessly about Bakhmut and yet all they have managed to accomplish is capture a few hundred meters of no man's land. And don't come at me with ZOMG CASUALTIES stuff. For every Ukrainian dead I can easily find 10 gore videos of Russian dead being eaten pigs and stray dogs. This is war and people die.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -5.9%        +2.9%       +1.7%      +3.9%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment (should be something like 0.6% higher than this number for a fair comparison)

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -2.5%       -0.1%         +0.4%       -0.4%      +5.0%        +1.4%

2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.3%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.2%

First a technical point.  In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

Similar trends as Sept.  Collective West prospects getting worse, especially for 2023.  Russia's prospects getting better.  Early this year the expected cumulative GDP fall for Russia in 2022 and 2023 was expected to be something like -11%.  Now it is expected to be around -8.5%. Japan and PRC got slightly worse.  On the CPI front, not been much change.  I am not displaying it here but CPI expectations for 2023 for the collective West are getting worse and worse over time.

With the chaos in the UK and the potential energy crisis in the EU, these numbers could get even worse for them over the next few months.

How is the UK economy outperforming the US? And China's zero COVID (and the fact that they aren't releasing their numbers) means that number is also likely BS.

[jaichind]

How is the UK economy outperforming the US? And China's zero COVID (and the fact that they aren't releasing their numbers) means that number is also likely BS.

The UK number relative to the USA is all about the base effect.  The UK economy significantly underperformed the USA during the COVID years of 2020-2021.  By my calculation, the UK in 2020 and 2021 underperformed pre-COVID expected output by 6% while the same number is around 1% for the USA.  This is mostly due to the fact that the USA fiscal and monetary stimulus was much larger than the UK.    And that gap got even bigger in the most recent UK adjustment of 2020 and 2021 GDP downward.  All this means going into 2022 the UK has way more slack in the economy than the USA so it is totally expected that the UK will grow faster in 2022 than the USA and indeed most other economies.  India also totally underperformed in the 2020-2021 period (I compute its output gap from those years relative to pre-COVID expectations is as high as 11%) and now India also is experiencing rapid growth in 2022 based on the same logic.

As for PRC, these are these numbers are what Western financial firms think the official PRC GDP will be.  If one thinks that the entire PRC economic accounting is fake then they are welcome to hold that opinion.  Ultimately it is about: do the local population sees material progress in their incomes and living standards.  And yes, I think the PRC zero COVID approach is silly and should be stopped ASAP.  I was opposed to lockdowns everywhere and every time throughout this entire COVID-19 affai.