Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's no better telltale sign of a pseudointellectual than someone who insists on a hyperspecific definition of fascism that happens to exclude any current political movement or regime with obvious and glaring similarities to historical fascism.

There’s nothing “hyperspecific” about using the definition that fascists themselves used when they developed their ideology. Otherwise, I could call the push for universal healthcare in the United States communism, because it bears some resemblance to something Vladimir Lenin happened to say once.

Political science like any other form of science isn't merely clinging to what people said subjectively about themselves. What you are doing instead is conducting a critical analysis.

But let's say, just for the sake of the argument, that you "used the definition that fascists themselves used when they developed their ideology". Do you mind me asking what definition that is and what it entails as specific characteristics? Because so far you seemed to remain terribly vague about it.

[NOVA Green]

The breakup of the Soviet Union was a disaster for ordinary Russians, unlike them winning WWII and so not being outright genocided by Hitler (which FDR actually helped with).

Not quite sure what you meant by the bolded section mate...

Thinking maybe most likely you were intending to state something more to the effect about how FDR helped assist Russia against NAZI genocide, where after all Slavs were considered "Subhumans", when it came to the NAZI Racial/Ethnic hierarchies, and certainly played a role in a "United Front" when it came to Germany during WW II.

But yeah, regardless of Ukraine, pretty sure Mr. Churchill said something to the effect that he would sleep with the devil himself if that is what it would take to defeat Nazism....

Maybe I just need to stick by my guns and not post here and deal with all of the side crap, but it does seem like there are a small minority of posters who appear to consistently derail the thread, and by dint of their actions take many of the rest of them off the tracks along with them, Casey Jones style. (NOT YOU)



Not a huge fan of Uber-Moding and censorship on Atlas, but sometimes certain Atlas Posters might be "A Bit out of your element Donny".



Can't beat them join them I guess might be my new playbook...

[Pericles]

The breakup of the Soviet Union was a disaster for ordinary Russians, unlike them winning WWII and so not being outright genocided by Hitler (which FDR actually helped with).

Not quite sure what you meant by the bolded section mate...

Yeah, FDR did a lot to help the Russian people NOT get genocided, I didn't mean to defame one of the greatest US Presidents.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Moscow, Russia: "Where have all the Men Gone", appears to be a new rendition of the classic folk Peter, Paul, and Mary song from the early '60s 'Nam era...

Many men have been staying off the streets out of fear of being handed a draft notice. As Olya came to work last Friday, she said, she witnessed the authorities at each of the four exits of the metro station, checking documents.

She is hardly alone. While there are still plenty of men in a city of 12 million people, across the capital their presence has thinned out noticeably — in restaurants, in the hipster community and at social gatherings like dinners and parties. This is especially true among the city’s intelligentsia, who often have disposable income and passports for foreign travel.

Some men who were repulsed by the invasion of Ukraine left when the war broke out; others who oppose the Kremlin in general fled because they feared imprisonment or oppression. But the majority of the men who have left in recent weeks were either called up to serve in the military, wanted to avoid the draft, or worried that Russia might close the borders if Mr. Putin declared martial law.

“These men are like toys in the hands of children,” said Ekaterina, 27, whose husband, Vladimir, 25, was inside collecting his rations, and moments away from being shipped off to a training camp outside Moscow. “They are just cannon fodder.” She wished he had evaded the summons, saying it would have been better for him to sit in jail for a few years than to return home dead.

On Monday, Moscow’s mayor announced that mobilization in the capital had officially ended. But many businesses were already feeling a downturn. In the two weeks following the call-up, the number of orders in Moscow restaurants with an average check of more than 1,500 rubles — about $25 — decreased by 29 percent over the same period last year. Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, closed 529 branches in September alone, according to Kommersant newspaper.

Meanwhile, downloads of dating apps have significantly increased in the countries to which Russian men fled. In Armenia, the number of new registrations on one dating app, Mamba, increased by 135 percent, a representative of the company told RBK, a Russian financial news outlet. In Georgia and Turkey the rate of new downloads was above 110 percent, while in Kazakhstan it was up by 32 percent.

“All of the most reasonable guys are gone,” said Tatiana, a 36 year old who works in technology sales, as she watched a game of billiards with her friends at women’s social club in the trendy Stoleshnikov Lane. “The dating pool has shrunk by at least 50 percent.”

For those men who stayed, navigating the city has become nerve-racking.

“I try to drive everywhere, because they can give out draft summons on the street and next to the metro,” said Aleksandr Perepelkin, a marketing director and the editor of the Blueprint, a fashion and culture publication.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/europe/russia-moscow-army-draft.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Meanwhile in Moscow, Russia: "Where have all the Men Gone", appears to be a new rendition of the classic folk Peter, Paul, and Mary song from the early '60s 'Nam era...

Many men have been staying off the streets out of fear of being handed a draft notice. As Olya came to work last Friday, she said, she witnessed the authorities at each of the four exits of the metro station, checking documents.

She is hardly alone. While there are still plenty of men in a city of 12 million people, across the capital their presence has thinned out noticeably — in restaurants, in the hipster community and at social gatherings like dinners and parties. This is especially true among the city’s intelligentsia, who often have disposable income and passports for foreign travel.

Some men who were repulsed by the invasion of Ukraine left when the war broke out; others who oppose the Kremlin in general fled because they feared imprisonment or oppression. But the majority of the men who have left in recent weeks were either called up to serve in the military, wanted to avoid the draft, or worried that Russia might close the borders if Mr. Putin declared martial law.

“These men are like toys in the hands of children,” said Ekaterina, 27, whose husband, Vladimir, 25, was inside collecting his rations, and moments away from being shipped off to a training camp outside Moscow. “They are just cannon fodder.” She wished he had evaded the summons, saying it would have been better for him to sit in jail for a few years than to return home dead.

On Monday, Moscow’s mayor announced that mobilization in the capital had officially ended. But many businesses were already feeling a downturn. In the two weeks following the call-up, the number of orders in Moscow restaurants with an average check of more than 1,500 rubles — about $25 — decreased by 29 percent over the same period last year. Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, closed 529 branches in September alone, according to Kommersant newspaper.

Meanwhile, downloads of dating apps have significantly increased in the countries to which Russian men fled. In Armenia, the number of new registrations on one dating app, Mamba, increased by 135 percent, a representative of the company told RBK, a Russian financial news outlet. In Georgia and Turkey the rate of new downloads was above 110 percent, while in Kazakhstan it was up by 32 percent.

“All of the most reasonable guys are gone,” said Tatiana, a 36 year old who works in technology sales, as she watched a game of billiards with her friends at women’s social club in the trendy Stoleshnikov Lane. “The dating pool has shrunk by at least 50 percent.”

For those men who stayed, navigating the city has become nerve-racking.

“I try to drive everywhere, because they can give out draft summons on the street and next to the metro,” said Aleksandr Perepelkin, a marketing director and the editor of the Blueprint, a fashion and culture publication.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/europe/russia-moscow-army-draft.html

Reminds me of this.

[Woody]

From Kyiv and Mykolaiv.

https://twitter.com/MilkyWa34808762/status/1582494466560040960
https://twitter.com/ChaudharyParvez/status/1582637506536693760

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

“Evacuation” of civilians from Kherson city potentially facilitates the following:
- Using them as human shields to evacuate men and materiel
- Sending them one way and men/materiel the other
- Reducing the logistical burden of supplying Kherson city by reducing the number of mouths to feed

[Woody]

Strelkov spotted in Donetsk region

https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1582669250711662598

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/erdogan-says-he-agreed-with-putin-form-natural-gas-hub-turkey-2022-10-19/

"Erdogan says he agreed with Putin to form natural gas hub in Turkey"

I wonder if there are now going to be a bunch of Turkey pipeline accidents or sabotage

[CumbrianLefty]

Though isn't "he agreed" past tense?

[Torie]

Fighting over ownership of all of these ideological terms is a total waste of time.

That said I call Putin an autocratic, homophobic,  ethnocentric-cleansing, jingoistic, irredentist war criminal. KISS. 

Not sure if the below is about war criminality or ethnic cleansing or both, but I decided using a term as bowdlerized as ethnocentric did not do Putin justice. He's "bigger' than that.

NYT:

"MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared martial law on Wednesday in four regions of Ukraine that Moscow recently annexed but that it does not fully control, a move that would allow the pro-Russian authorities to impose even tighter restrictions, including forced relocations, as Moscow fights to hold off Ukraine’s military advances."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/19/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putin must be so relieved by this point -he knows now he can depend on the Republican Party to come through for him in the end.  All he has to do is hold on for just a few more months until Congress changes hands in January:

McCarthy: No 'blank check' for Ukraine if GOP wins majority

Congress should just authorize, like, a trillion dollars of military aid to Ukraine at the DoD's discretion during the lame duck session. There, nothing McCarthy can do to undo that.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1582705912845852672

[Virginiá]

IRIS-T air defense from Germany officially on the hunt in Kyiv

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582712521789964290

100% of cruise missiles launched from Russia towards Kyiv intercepted today (or so reported)

[Virginiá]

That statement from McCarthy is worrying, but at the end of the day there are still more hawks in the House GOP and my bet is McCarthy would probably want Democrats to pass a year or two's worth of funding in the lame duck so they can avoid a fight over this later on. That way he can still complain about it publicly.

[Woody]

More strikes today.

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1582698545156526080
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1582705188871475205
https://twitter.com/Alexand28901796/status/1582708812561420289
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1582736790007390212

[Person Man]

Fighting over ownership of all of these ideological terms is a total waste of time.

That said I call Putin an autocratic, homophobic,  ethnocentric-cleansing, jingoistic, irredentist war criminal. KISS. 

Not sure if the below is about war criminality or ethnic cleansing or both, but I decided using a term as bowdlerized as ethnocentric did not do Putin justice. He's "bigger' than that.

NYT:

"MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared martial law on Wednesday in four regions of Ukraine that Moscow recently annexed but that it does not fully control, a move that would allow the pro-Russian authorities to impose even tighter restrictions, including forced relocations, as Moscow fights to hold off Ukraine’s military advances."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/19/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

That much is true no matter what. Putin is a racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, and anti-Semitic Monarch/Autocrat.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1582732233911062533

[Virginiá]

More strikes today.

[...]

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1582736790007390212

This was from yesterday.

[Torie]

That statement from McCarthy is worrying, but at the end of the day there are still more hawks in the House GOP and my bet is McCarthy would probably want Democrats to pass a year or two's worth of funding in the lame duck so they can avoid a fight over this later on. That way he can still complain about it publicly.

Yes, enough Pubs will break the whip, including if need be, signing discharge petitions,  to keep flowing all the funding that Biden requests. Moreover, insider guys like Chip Roy have said publically that he's in Ukraine's corner. It's all for show. McCarthy has his MO in trying to keep his fractious caucus together, and it is not a pretty sight as he disingenuously weaves and dodges and panders in an unprincipled way.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

[Woody]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

if Trump was president, Putin would've invaded Ukraine, Trump would have justified and defended it, Ukraine would receive zero aid from America and we'd probably share intel with Putin, meanwhile most of Europe would still be on Ukraine's side but without American leadership they'd be disorganized and ineffective.  So the divide between America and Europe would widen further, the residents of Kiev would be exported to Siberia and their children kidnapped and sold to wealthy Russian families, and Putin would be emboldened to start planning his attacks on other nearby states as he continues trying to rebuild the USSR, which for some reason you fully support.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

if Trump was president, Putin would've invaded Ukraine, Trump would have justified and defended it, Ukraine would receive zero aid from America and we'd probably share intel with Putin, meanwhile most of Europe would still be on Ukraine's side but without American leadership they'd be disorganized and ineffective.  So the divide between America and Europe would widen further, the residents of Kiev would be exported to Siberia and their children kidnapped and sold to wealthy Russian families, and Putin would be emboldened to start planning his attacks on other nearby states as he continues trying to rebuild the USSR, which for some reason you fully support.

I am not so sure about that. By all accounts Trump was very susceptible to influence, especially from generals, and I would find it hard to believe that they wouldn't push Trump as hard as possible to get him to see things their way (and I'm not sure they would have to try very hard). However, if Trump were in office he would at least publicly be sending very mixed signals, and non-publicly would likely not be providing as much aid to Ukraine. However, to go as far as to say that he would just roll over and do nothing, I think ignores how susceptible to influence Trump was in office (particularly on foreign policy/military matters).

[Woody]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

if Trump was president, Putin would've invaded Ukraine, Trump would have justified and defended it, Ukraine would receive zero aid from America and we'd probably share intel with Putin, meanwhile most of Europe would still be on Ukraine's side but without American leadership they'd be disorganized and ineffective.  So the divide between America and Europe would widen further, the residents of Kiev would be exported to Siberia and their children kidnapped and sold to wealthy Russian families, and Putin would be emboldened to start planning his attacks on other nearby states as he continues trying to rebuild the USSR, which for some reason you fully support.

Lib brain emotional fantasy.

How do you know? Trump warned about Nord Stream. Events such as Syria, Georiga, Crimea, etc.. never happened under his watch. Status quo between West and East. We already have a record to se from Trump. And now, same with Biden: biggest land war since WWII