Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Something is going on in Kherson

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582912382086832128
https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1582902740727959553

And now we know what it is the F**KERS
https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1583158282717233153

I've read that actually going ahead with this would cause serious problems for the (Russian-occupied) east bank of Kherson, Crimea and its water supply, and potentially the water supply to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. It would be a high price to pay for denying Ukraine a crossing over the Dniepier which can instead be defended.

[Storr]

Something is going on in Kherson

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582912382086832128
https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1582902740727959553

And now we know what it is the F**KERS
https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1583158282717233153

“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme." - Mark Twain

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1583020677103497216?s=20&t=7xrOJf-uB...

[Virginiá]

Honestly, as much money as this is, they passed 40 billion last May, and 13.6 billion before that, and that went by fairly quick. I would say make it 70 or more to actually get through the entire year. Or better yet, double that so we can avoid arguing over Ukrainian assistance until 2024.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1583170724344172546

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/gkates/status/1583000292861575168?s=20&t=SsAUkmWSw9vaBVw...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1583170724344172546

I'm not taking that at face value. Remember the unlimited lend-lease? That was a $40bn package, of which Ukraine was assigned only $11bn of military aid. In the end, Biden let $2.1bn of that $11bn expire (although there was a subsequent package of up to $3.7bn).

Ukraine will receive help, but even if you include financial and humanitarian assistance, it's not likely to see all of that $50bn.

[Virginiá]

Temper expectations. Remember the unlimited lend-lease? That was a $40bn package, of which Ukraine was assigned only $11bn of military aid. In the end, Biden let $2.1bn of that $11bn expire (although there was a subsequent package of up to $3.7bn).

Ukraine will receive help, but even if you include financial and humanitarian assistance, it's not likely to see all of that $50bn.

mate, you underestimate how much I dig into this stuff.

I know the breakdowns of the funding, which honestly is why I think it should be more (as I edited the post for).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Temper expectations. Remember the unlimited lend-lease? That was a $40bn package, of which Ukraine was assigned only $11bn of military aid. In the end, Biden let $2.1bn of that $11bn expire (although there was a subsequent package of up to $3.7bn).

Ukraine will receive help, but even if you include financial and humanitarian assistance, it's not likely to see all of that $50bn.

mate, you underestimate how much I dig into this stuff.

I know the breakdowns of the funding, which honestly is why I think it should be more (as I edited the post for).

Sorry - my comment was presumptuous. I am just annoyed at how uncritically this is going to be accepted and repeated by pretty much everyone on television and social media. Westerners have an interest in exaggerating their support, Russians have an interest in it, and Ukrainians looking for optimism also have an interest. They all miss the big picture, deliberately or otherwise.

[Storr]

Oleksandrivka is on the Dniprovska Gulf coast.

The footage was originally posted by this twitter account almost 24 hours ago:

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1583171510667124736?s=20&t=SsAUkmWSw9...

[Virginiá]

This was the breakdown of the 40 billion in aid from earlier this year:

(I wish I could find that nice chart I had months ago)

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1524051661651595267

In retrospect, that money was good for about half a year, since it was enacted in May, after a previous 13 billion, and another supplementary 13 billion had to be passed in September. Although, then again, the Biden admin did also allow a few billion dollars in military drawdown funding to lapse (and renewed in the new bill).

Like I said, it should be more, particularly if they want to avoid the question of funding later while continuing maximum support for Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This was the breakdown of the 40 billion in aid from earlier this year:

(I wish I could find that nice chart I had months ago)

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1524051661651595267
In retrospect, that money was good for about half a year, as a supplementary 13 billion had to be passed in September. Although, then again, the Biden admin did also allow a few billion dollars in military drawdown funding to lapse (and renewed in the new bill).

Like I said, it should be more, particularly if they want to avoid the question of funding later while continuing maximum support for Ukraine.

The $23 billion figure includes other military expenditures: US deployments to nearby countries, a couple of ringtausch details with European countries, acceleration of previously existing arms deals, weapons to replace and augment Pentagon stocks, the purchase of a Patriot battery for unspecified purposes and probably some steep (and mostly unwarranted) discounts on arms deals in Europe.

Ukraine's army ultimately saw just shy of $9 billion, though it got up to $3.7billion later. Some of the transfers were inefficient, to say the least - M777s without their ballistic computers, cash cow Excalibur instead of PGK, Switchblade 300 because "Turkey is Crowding us out of the Drone Market!", etc. This was still significantly better (even at the per capita level) than what a lot of European countries did, of course.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583046458474778626?s=20&t=GRll-j...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583063376606818304?s=20&t=GRll-j...

Hopefully this is indicative a larger/general Russian withdrawal across the river. Ferries loaded with military equipment and personnel have been going from Kazatske (on the Dnipro's right/western bank) to Nova Kakhovka (on the Dnipro's left/eastern bank) and returning unloaded:

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1582793656943403009?s=20&t=SsAUkmWSw9vaBV...

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1582793676249448448?s=20&t=SsAUkmWSw9vaBV...

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1582976607945621504?s=20&t=SsAUkmWSw9vaBV...

[jaichind]

Another famous war related artificial flooding would be the 1938 Yellow River flood in June 1938 when the ROC forces blew up an embankment to flood the Japanese advance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood

At the time the ROC claimed that Japan bombing blew up the embankment which was its position until after the war when ROC admitted it was ROC armed forced that did it.  It was clear at the time despite what the ROC claimed who was responsible since the flood clearly stopped the Japanese advance and delayed the Northern Japanese force from linking up with the Southern Japanese force by a significant period.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another famous war related artificial flooding would be the 1938 Yellow River flood in June 1938 when the ROC forces blew up an embankment to flood the Japanese advance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood

At the time the ROC claimed that Japan bombing blew up the embankment which was its position until after the war when ROC admitted it was ROC armed forced that did it.  It was clear at the time despite what the ROC claimed who was responsible since the flood clearly stopped the Japanese advance and delayed the Northern Japanese force from linking up with the Southern Japanese force by a significant period.

Yeah, I was reminded of this too.

[Storr]

Russia is claiming Ukrainian shelling of the Antonovsky bridge and/or a barge bridge constructed right beside it, killed three and injured ten civilians.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1583214047516057608?s=20&t=0FbnO0bd...


I'm not sure why civilians would be crossing at night:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1583203388757463040?s=20&t=fnIwhFl...

[Middle-aged Europe]

This thread has reached page number 666. Just sayin'.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread has reached page number 666. Just sayin'.

It will likely become the longest thread in Atlas history.

[Person Man]

This thread has reached page number 666. Just sayin'.

Pick up sticks!

[Virginiá]

The $23 billion figure includes other military expenditures: US deployments to nearby countries, a couple of ringtausch details with European countries, acceleration of previously existing arms deals, weapons to replace and augment Pentagon stocks, the purchase of a Patriot battery for unspecified purposes and probably some steep (and mostly unwarranted) discounts on arms deals in Europe.

Ukraine's army ultimately saw just shy of $9 billion, though it got up to $3.7billion later. Some of the transfers were inefficient, to say the least - M777s without their ballistic computers, cash cow Excalibur instead of PGK, Switchblade 300 because "Turkey is Crowding us out of the Drone Market!", etc. This was still significantly better (even at the per capita level) than what a lot of European countries did, of course.

In all fairness, ringtausch is still basically direct aid to Ukraine. For example, back-filling Poland so they can send older tanks to Ukraine still means Ukraine is getting tanks. If Cyprus ends up transferring a lot of their old Soviet weapons to Ukraine, it will probably be at least partially a swap with the US, and they now seem open to a deal. I don't know if you're also factoring in the USAI funding, which isn't immediate aid but is still money spent on long-term military aid, and some of those systems will arrive within months, depending on how fast they are made. The US has a lot of contracts out for Ukraine now (like this, or this, not to mention that nebulous 3 billion $ SK deal), so future money will arguably go a bit further since the US can focus on other systems instead of building up basic capabilities Ukraine lacked back in April-June. I wouldn't be surprised if more money this time around went to ring-swap deals with other countries or foreign military sales (such as for artillery shells, air defense, missiles, etc). Particularly if the US continues to struggle with the decision to provide Ukraine with modern IFVs/APCs like the Bradley.

I still agree more actual military funding is needed, but I can see an argument here why it's still a lot. I'm just maximalist on this issue because I want this war over as quickly as possibly and don't particularly buy into the incessant hand-wringing over escalation.

[NOVA Green]

Not totally "new news", but the scale of Russian atrocities against civilians in Kharkiv Oblast is starting to become clearing now that investigators are able to access most of the region.

This is just a sample... any Pro-Russian posters or viewers on Atlas, as well as the apologists for Russia's War Crimes, really need to examine their basic internal core human values before posting further, as well as reexamine their support for Russia.

I can only imagine what evidence will be uncovered about Russian Torture chambers in Kherson City, once it is finally liberated.

Russian troops spent weeks searching for Mariya, the 65-year-old common-law wife of a serving Ukrainian Army officer.

Twice, she said, they ransacked her cottage in a village outside the town of Balakliya, and when they did eventually detain her months later, they tortured her repeatedly under interrogation, using electric shocks and threats of rape.

The scale of abuse of the population in eastern Ukraine under Russian occupation is most likely greater than that seen in the spring in Bucha and other areas around the capital, Kyiv, given the breadth of the territory and the length of the occupation, police officials said.

So far, police officers have logged more than 1,000 cases of people being detained in police stations and temporary holding facilities across the region, said Serhii Bolvinov, the police chief of Kharkiv Province. The real figure is probably two or three times that, he said.

Torture was routine, according to witnesses. The signs of abuse were already apparent in some of the 534 bodies recovered across the region, the police chief said. “There are bodies that were tortured to death,” he said. “There are people with tied hands, shot, strangled, people with cut wounds, cut genitals.”

Accounts of those detained reveal the same pattern of abuse, including beatings and electric shocks during interrogations, in almost every police station and improvised jail across the region. Some inmates were held in open-air cages in the city of Kupiansk, one witness said.

Mariya was held for 40 days in a police detention facility, where she endured hours of interrogation, electric shocks and threats of rape and death. One time, she fell from her chair, unconscious, and came around as someone was kicking her in the head.

From her cell, she could hear men and women screaming in pain. “Men screaming so hard I cannot describe it enough,” she said, weeping. She said she understood from the screams that women were being sexually assaulted (though she says she herself was not). “If they stripped me to my underwear, you can imagine what they did to the girls.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/world/europe/ukraine-civilans-russia-occupation.html

[NOVA Green]

From Italy with love...

Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian prime minister, campaigned to be the protector of democratic, pro-European values in a new right-wing coalition that is expected to take power in days after winning elections last month.

But even before a government can be sworn in, the 86-year-old billionaire media mogul has proved himself to be less of a stable, moderating force, than the source of renewed anxiety after the leak of surreptitiously recorded remarks revealed that he blamed Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for forcing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to invade Ukraine.

The remarks, complete with talk about a “sweet letter” and vodka from Mr. Putin, raise concerns that the new right-wing government, led by Giorgia Meloni, herself a solid supporter of Ukraine, is wobblier than expected and could, if it ever actually comes together with another Putin-admiring partner, potentially lead Italy to undercut Europe’s united front against Russia.

“I reconnected a little bit with President Putin,” Mr. Berlusconi could be heard saying on the audio published on the website of La Presse on Tuesday, in which he addresses a meeting of loyal Forza Italia party members, and some apparently not-so-loyal leakers. In the audio, he added that Mr. Putin had sent him 20 bottles of vodka “and a very kind letter” for his 86th birthday last month. Mr. Berlusconi said he responded by sending bottles of Lambrusco wine and “an equally sweet letter.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/world/europe/silvio-berlusconi-vladimir-putin-russia-italy.html

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if this is related to reports of massive Russian looting, which several posters upthread posted earlier today, but still don't believe it has yet been noted.

Naturally news from Russian Occupied Kherson City is limited, so again I would tend to treat info coming out of the City with a few pinches of salt, unless we have verified and multiple data points to reference (Such as some of the Geo-Located Sat footage and other videos of Russian troops leaving KC).


https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1583134235741032448?s=20&t=wR8aEYtvk...

[HillGoose]

my favorite thing these days is getting on the internet and seeing how the russkies got their asses beat today

[NOVA Green]

my favorite thing these days is getting on the internet and seeing how the russkies got their asses beat today

Where?

Plz post and discuss with maps...

[NOVA Green]

my favorite thing these days is getting on the internet and seeing how the russkies got their asses beat today

It appears to be patently clear that Russia has already lost the War when in comes to Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0.

Key question is how much territory will Ukraine be able to recover, before there might be an eventual temporary peace agreement.

Reality is that the whole Russian concept involving invasion and occupation of Ukraine 2.0 was based upon false assumptions and bogus military strategy and tactics.

Regardless of Western Military Assistance to Ukraine (Or lack of), it is clear the Ukraine won Round 1 of war 2.0.

Russia attempts major counter attacks in Summer and grabs chunks of the two Donbass provinces.

Ukraine does massive counterattacks and liberates huge chunks of Kharkiv Oblast, not to mention massive liberation of territory in Russian Occupied Southern Ukraine.

It is patently clear that Russia has completely lost the "hearts and minds" of civilian populations within territories they were claiming to liberate from "Ukrainian Neo-Nazis", even with areas where Pro-Russian candidates performed extremely well within recent free elections.

Now, we are looking at a situation where not only regular Russian Military, Wagner Group, not to mention "meat grinder" conscripts are recognizing the power of their fellow Slavs, when it comes to defending their homeland.

Russian soldiers on the frontlines in Ukraine are now very very afraid about the military capabilities and motivation of their adversaries...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile top Russian Hip-Hop Star Oxxxy, living in exile keeping it real for the streets just a couple months back with 8.8 Million views...

Totally get that a lot of y'all might not like hip-hop, but reality is that it is still a subversive style of music in many parts of the world, regardless of the commercial commodification of global hip-hop culture.

Sure personally really liked his "Russians Against the War" live Hip-hop show in Berlin perhaps a bit more, but still Oxxxy also gotta play to his home crew, while also at the same splitting after Putin does the "War S**t" in Ukraine.