Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[walleye26]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

[walleye26]

Is there some sort of company relations line for McDonald’s, Pepsi, and these companies I can call? I want to call and get them to stop their Russian operations.

[walleye26]

At what point do you think the US and NATO would legitimately use our militaries to intervene? Like, if Russia attacks Georgia to take it over, then Kazakhstan, then Moldova, like at some point we would draw a line right?

What do you think we would do if Russia nuked Kyiv? Like, a straight up Tsar Bomba on Kyiv, killing all 3M inhabitants?

What if Russian troops kidnapped Zelenskyy and publicly executed him? What about a massive cyberattack on NATO countries power grids?

[walleye26]

So it looks like rumors of a supposed Ukrainian counterattack to liberate Mariupol were just propaganda and not true. 

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

There is good and bad for Putin in this.
The good is that he can accuse the West of directly being responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
The bad is that he now is at risk of being seen as weak.
I suspect that the latter outweighs the former, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a rally-around-the-flag effect if he plays this well (far from a given, of course).

I’m kind of wondering if this is like Ukraine’s “Doolittle Raid.” Attacking this oil depot doesn’t do much, but it sends a message that we can get you if we really try and want to.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/olashka/status/1509766004590751783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

There is good and bad for Putin in this.
The good is that he can accuse the West of directly being responsible for Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
The bad is that he now is at risk of being seen as weak.
I suspect that the latter outweighs the former, but I wouldn't rule out him getting a rally-around-the-flag effect if he plays this well (far from a given, of course).

I’m kind of wondering if this is like Ukraine’s “Doolittle Raid.” Attacking this oil depot doesn’t do much, but it sends a message that we can get you if we really try and want to.

That's a good comparison.
The problem for Ukraine is if Putin can turn that into getting the public more mobilized in his favor (turning their support from passive to active).
Ukraine would be well-advised to generally stay on Ukrainian soil, imo.

That’s kind of my thought. It’s high-risk, high reward. It could anger Russian people into thinking “wait, I thought we were winning? They must be lying!” And lead to more anti war protests. On the other hand, obviously it could just strengthen Russia’s resolve and be spun as a win.

[walleye26]

On my drive from Wisconsin Dells to Madison (about 40 miles) today I saw like 5 cars with Ukrainian flags on it, and several businesses in Sun Prairie had Ukrainian flags and banners.

[walleye26]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

[walleye26]

Lyman currently being Grozny’d

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1528769229025058818?s=20&t=E03Vt9lk...

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1528741983740641280?s=20&t=9hRTZLel3qM6-...

Lyman currently being Grozny’d

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1528769229025058818?s=20&t=E03Vt9lk...

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1528741983740641280?s=20&t=9hRTZLel3qM6-...

I can imagine a Russian general or Colonel saying something like “we had to destroy the town in order to save it.”

There will be nothing left of it when this is over.

[walleye26]

So to what extent are the HIMARS going to be a difference maker? I suspect it takes some time to train on them + move them into the correct positions. If they are better and longer range than what the Russians have though, they should help some, yes?

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1535125381920989185?s=20&t=FrElKPeBLb...

That’s really dark. Jesus. Lots of people for sure.

[walleye26]

There are unconfirmed twitter reports (thus, grain of salt) of a renewed Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson-Mykolaiv front:

[tweet snip of multiple tweets reporting on the offensive]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535768883558338561?s=20&t=fink-4...

Good to hear but I’m still skeptical. I don’t see much change in front lines at all for the next few weeks.

[walleye26]

I wonder how much the advance towards Kherson is increasing Ukrainian partisan and resistance activity. Like, if I was in a city that enemies held and my army was just 15 km out, I think that would be the time to get together with the boys and fight back behind enemy lines to make it easier on the army coming forward.

[walleye26]

Guys just put Bilaps on ignore-I did last week and this forum has been much better since then.

[walleye26]

How many ammo dumps have been hit now? I swear it’s been like a dozen this week. I mean, at some point the Russians won’t have enough ammo to fight back.

[walleye26]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Put Bilaps on ignore.

[walleye26]

While this is awesome, what is crazy for me is how fast this is happening. I expected this counterattack to last like 2 months. It’s been like 2 weeks and they are taking over huge tracks of territory.

[walleye26]

How likely are we to see some “fragging” like what happened to American officers in Vietnam? I mean, an unpopular war with unwilling participants might lend themselves to that.

Also, do we have any idea how many Russians have left the country so far? While some earlier posters have mentioned effects on the Russian economy, you’d need a high number of people leaving. Hundreds of thousands would have to leave. Is there a way we could find that information out?

[walleye26]

TASS reports turnout on the first day of referendums are

Luhansk         21.9%
Donetsk         23.6%
Zaporizhzhia   20.5%
Kherson         15.0%

I’m sure these numbers are 100% accurate and totally legitimate.

[walleye26]

Do we have any idea how many Russian troops are in Lyman? Like, if it’s a company or two then it’s not really a big deal, but if we are talking a few battalions or several divisions then that’s something to celebrate. But do we have like a solid number? 100? 1,000? 10,000?

[walleye26]

After Lyman, where Ukrainians could gain ground?

The one that would probably make the most sense is the retaking of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, since it would cut the 'landbridge' the Russian army conquered in the early weeks of the war, making the retaking of the other oblasts on either side much easier in the long run.     

Can’t the Ukrainians try to come down the eastern bank of the Dnipro and try to cut off Kherson from behind? Or is that the area you are referring to?

[walleye26]

Reports of heavy gunfire in a Kherson City Neighborhood tonight...

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1582863900847968256?s=20&t=SSU58skdc...

Let’s hope that this is Ukrainian partisans who have been waiting for the right moment. I really hope that Ukraine is launching their long awaited counterattack to liberate it.

[walleye26]

NOVA I know you don’t get it enough but thanks for all the in depth coverage you share with us here. It’s always a good read.

[walleye26]

My wife and I picked quite the time to travel to Europe for the first time. We are in Poland now. Nothing on the news here that is any different than what is being reported stateside.

[walleye26]

I wonder if the cluster bombs will help to dislodge Russian troops from the trenches or if it won’t make an impact.