Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

The CIA estimates that around 15,000 Russian troops have been killed and 45,000 wounded:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cia-director-says-some-15000-russians-killed-ukraine-war-2022-07-20/

I think this number does not include DPR/LPR & Wagner forces, but that's just my speculation.

[bilaps]

That number is probably correct but it should count DNR LNR and Wagner group.

But the amount of fake news in respected media is staggering. Ukrainians didn't down Russian jet, it was Russians that did it, friendly fire incidents. Talks about Russians more than Ukrainians to be honest. Also Guardian every two weeks talk about forced conscription in DNR when obligatory mobilization there started before February 24th. If I'm Ukrainian I'm worried that Russia lost third of it's starting invading group and most of it lost in the first phase of war. And yet Ukraininas are still on the defensive and their offensive capabilities are limited to arms depots and now bridges and nuclear plants. Oh, yes and twitter. Meanwhile Zelensky changes his childhood friend as a head of SBU and a prosecutor general as well..

So the main question is, if Russia has 60k casualties how much Ukrainians have?

[jaichind]

DPA wire: "'We are at the mercy of Russia,' says head of German energy regulator"

-------------
Klaus Müller, head of the Federal Network Agency regulator, says that Germany continues to be "at the mercy of Russia" despite the fact that gas is flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline again after a maintenance-related halt. "We are at Russia's mercy at the moment because they decide how much gas Nord Stream 1 will pass on to us," Müller told dpa on Thursday just hours after Russian gas started flowing again at around 40% of the pipeline's maximum capacity.
-------------

Finally after months of tough talk some reality from the Germans.   Just to be clear Russia selling less gas to Germany is suboptimal for Russia as well as it will take years to expand the  Power of Siberia pipeline and build  Power of Siberia 2 to route much more gas to PRC.  It is just the point of exports are to import and given the limited imports Russia can get from the EU selling more gas just means getting more EUR or USD that can be sized or making RUB super strong which I guess has the short-term benefit of stabilizing the Russian financial system. 

Just like it is bad for the parasite to kill its host I think Russia will ship just enough gas for the Germans to slowly deplete its gas reserves (Germany should be building up its reserves in the summer) and then leave Germany without any gas reserves when winter comes which is when Russia might dictate terms.  All this depends on the financial buffer the Russians have to be able to play this type of game.

More miscalculations by Schulz and Habeck in the coming months might accidentally implement the 1944 USA Morgenthau Plan to completely deindustrialize Germany.

[Silent Hunter]

That number is probably correct but it should count DNR LNR and Wagner group.

But the amount of fake news in respected media is staggering. Ukrainians didn't down Russian jet, it was Russians that did it, friendly fire incidents. Talks about Russians more than Ukrainians to be honest. Also Guardian every two weeks talk about forced conscription in DNR when obligatory mobilization there started before February 24th. If I'm Ukrainian I'm worried that Russia lost third of it's starting invading group and most of it lost in the first phase of war. And yet Ukraininas are still on the defensive and their offensive capabilities are limited to arms depots and now bridges and nuclear plants. Oh, yes and twitter. Meanwhile Zelensky changes his childhood friend as a head of SBU and a prosecutor general as well..

So the main question is, if Russia has 60k casualties how much Ukrainians have?

That's a key question that the Ukrainians are quite reasonably not letting on about.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

DPA wire: "'We are at the mercy of Russia,' says head of German energy regulator"

-------------
Klaus Müller, head of the Federal Network Agency regulator, says that Germany continues to be "at the mercy of Russia" despite the fact that gas is flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline again after a maintenance-related halt. "We are at Russia's mercy at the moment because they decide how much gas Nord Stream 1 will pass on to us," Müller told dpa on Thursday just hours after Russian gas started flowing again at around 40% of the pipeline's maximum capacity.
-------------

Finally after months of tough talk some reality from the Germans.   Just to be clear Russia selling less gas to Germany is suboptimal for Russia as well as it will take years to expand the  Power of Siberia pipeline and build  Power of Siberia 2 to route much more gas to PRC.  It is just the point of exports are to import and given the limited imports Russia can get from the EU selling more gas just means getting more EUR or USD that can be sized or making RUB super strong which I guess has the short-term benefit of stabilizing the Russian financial system.  

Just like it is bad for the parasite to kill its host I think Russia will ship just enough gas for the Germans to slowly deplete its gas reserves (Germany should be building up its reserves in the summer) and then leave Germany without any gas reserves when winter comes which is when Russia might dictate terms.  All this depends on the financial buffer the Russians have to be able to play this type of game.

More miscalculations by Schulz and Habeck in the coming months might accidentally implement the 1944 USA Morgenthau Plan to completely deindustrialize Germany.

Nord Stream 2 would have to be certified and insured (and its bankrupt operators restored or replaced) for Russia to maximise gas leverage over Germany. Nord Stream 1 runs through Ukraine, so both states can choose to disrupt its supply in the short term. Ukraine reduced gas flows for a bit a few weeks ago, IRC.

[jaichind]

Nord Stream 2 would have to be certified and insured (and its bankrupt operators restored or replaced) for Russia to maximise gas leverage over Germany. Nord Stream 1 runs through Ukraine, so both states can choose to disrupt its supply in the short term. Ukraine reduced gas flows for a bit a few weeks ago, IRC.

You are getting Nord Stream 1 mixed up with Yamal.  Nord Steam 1 completely bypasses Ukraine which is why Ukraine is so upset about Canada breaking the sanctions to help repair Nord Stream 1.

[jaichind]

After installing Trump in 2016 and recently removing the governments of Bulgaria and the UK Putin now signs off on removing the Italian government.    The next big decision would be to decide if Trump should be reinstalled in 2024.

[CumbrianLefty]

That number is probably correct but it should count DNR LNR and Wagner group.

But the amount of fake news in respected media is staggering. Ukrainians didn't down Russian jet, it was Russians that did it, friendly fire incidents. Talks about Russians more than Ukrainians to be honest. Also Guardian every two weeks talk about forced conscription in DNR when obligatory mobilization there started before February 24th. If I'm Ukrainian I'm worried that Russia lost third of it's starting invading group and most of it lost in the first phase of war. And yet Ukraininas are still on the defensive and their offensive capabilities are limited to arms depots and now bridges and nuclear plants. Oh, yes and twitter. Meanwhile Zelensky changes his childhood friend as a head of SBU and a prosecutor general as well..

So the main question is, if Russia has 60k casualties how much Ukrainians have?

That's a key question that the Ukrainians are quite reasonably not letting on about.

There are some reasonable estimates, and I think Ukrainian authorities have admitted their casualties have increased significantly since the early months of the war.

And the CIA tally of Russian losses may still be slightly cautious, as these things often are.

[urutzizu]

Sep. 25th 2018, UN General Assembly:

https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/1044604107997237249?

And here is Germany['s Foreign Minister] literally laughing at Trump after he says the country could become totally dependent on Russian energy

https://twitter.com/dbroessler/status/1045058678469079040
Statement German Foreign Minister, same day: "There is no dependence on Russia, especially not on Energy ... We will not get tried from confronting these claims with the facts"

July 21st, 2022:

Head of the German government energy regulator, Bundesnetztagentur: "We are at Russia's mercy"

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240029967/Gas-Lieferungen-weiterhin-unsicher-Bund-will-Vorgaben-fuer-Gas-Speicher-Fuellung-verschaerfen.html [03:50 am]

German foreign Minister: "if we don't get the gas turbine, then we won't get any more gas, and then we won't be able to provide any more support for Ukraine, because then we'll be busy with popular uprisings"

[jaichind]

Sep. 25th 2018, UN General Assembly:

https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/1044604107997237249?

And here is Germany['s Foreign Minister] literally laughing at Trump after he says the country could become totally dependent on Russian energy

https://twitter.com/dbroessler/status/1045058678469079040
Statement German Foreign Minister, same day: "There is no dependence on Russia, especially not on Energy ... We will not get tried from confronting these claims with the facts"

July 21st, 2022:

Head of the German government energy regulator, Bundesnetztagentur: "We are at Russia's mercy"

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240029967/Gas-Lieferungen-weiterhin-unsicher-Bund-will-Vorgaben-fuer-Gas-Speicher-Fuellung-verschaerfen.html [03:50 am]

German foreign Minister: "if we don't get the gas turbine, then we won't get any more gas, and then we won't be able to provide any more support for Ukraine, because then we'll be busy with popular uprisings"

Just to be clear. Trump was right of course but he only said that not because he cared about the Germans, nor should he, but he said it to get the Germans to buy more USA energy products as opposed to Russian energy products.  He was in the role as salesperson.

[Person Man]

Sep. 25th 2018, UN General Assembly:

https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/1044604107997237249?

And here is Germany['s Foreign Minister] literally laughing at Trump after he says the country could become totally dependent on Russian energy

https://twitter.com/dbroessler/status/1045058678469079040
Statement German Foreign Minister, same day: "There is no dependence on Russia, especially not on Energy ... We will not get tried from confronting these claims with the facts"

July 21st, 2022:

Head of the German government energy regulator, Bundesnetztagentur: "We are at Russia's mercy"

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240029967/Gas-Lieferungen-weiterhin-unsicher-Bund-will-Vorgaben-fuer-Gas-Speicher-Fuellung-verschaerfen.html [03:50 am]

German foreign Minister: "if we don't get the gas turbine, then we won't get any more gas, and then we won't be able to provide any more support for Ukraine, because then we'll be busy with popular uprisings"

Just to be clear. Trump was right of course but he only said that not because he cared about the Germans, nor should he, but he said it to get the Germans to buy more USA energy products as opposed to Russian energy products.  He was in the role as salesperson.

That makes sense.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1550137813051506690?t=Y9jl3TxV8ippE2D...

[Middle-aged Europe]

New German poll numbers on Russia/Ukraine (Infratest dimap for ARD-Deutschlandtrend, 07/19-07/20)


Opinion on the sanctions against Russia "even if it entails disadvantages for Germany"
Support 58%
Oppose 33%

Opinion on the sanctions against Russia, broken down by party affiliation (Support / Oppose)
Greens 90 / 8
SPD 72 / 24
FDP 70 / 24
CDU/CSU 67 / 28
AfD 16 / 80

Opinion on the sanctions against Russia, broken down along pre-1990 borders (Support / Oppose)
West Germany 63 / 29
East Germany 39 / 51


Voting intention
CDU/CSU 27% (+/-0)
Greens 22% (-1)
SPD 19% (+/-0)
AfD 12% (+1)
FDP 7% (-1)
Left 4% (+/-0)

[Storr]

Belarus is ready to fight Western imperialism:

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1549738928860692483?s=20&t=9ehtXi1...

[GoTfan]

BRRRRRRRRT!!
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184

It would probably be the least useful donor jet for reasons gone into elsewhere, but the US Air Force has been looking for any excuse to get rid of them. The A-10 close support planes are an interesting example of MIC grift; they’ve been known to be a waste of money for decades by the Air Force, but the Army lobbies to have the Air Force keep them anyway because it means part of the Air Force’s budget goes exclusively (but inefficiently) to helping the Army. They are helped in this expensive act of trolling by Congresscritters who ignore evidence when lobbyists deploy the “Brrrt!” card.

Exactly. The A-10 is probably the most useless aircraft the US has, and is beyond obsolete in modern warfare.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1550216409300570116
Unknown amount of Russian soldiers are now trapped in the village of Vysokopillya in the Kherson region

[NOVA Green]

Not quite sure why this article from NYT is not in front page, but read it earlier today while was on temp "furlough" from the factory":

Gotta be brief on quotes so as not to get "Banned From the Roxy":

Had brief posted excerpts, but a couple rando's from Central Europe on ignore, keep hogging up the thread, including some guy who allegedly has really high-qual biceps (Apologies--- I digress).

So please can we carry on and ignore the side shows Atlas Comrades?   

Ukraine used a HIMARS artillery weapon, newly supplied by the United States, to hit the Antonivsky bridge in Kherson on Tuesday, an adviser to country’s interior minister said. The bridge has been the main transit route for Russian supplies coming in from Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Eleven more missiles hit the bridge on Wednesday, according to the deputy head of the pro-Russia administration in Kherson.

The bridge is a “key vulnerability for Russian forces,” a British intelligence report said.

Ukraine’s armed forces also said on Wednesday that they had blown up a Russian radar system in Kherson using missiles fired from more than 60 miles away — a day after Ukraine’s air force command said it had shot down a Russian fighter jet above agricultural land in Kherson and struck warehouses that are crucial for resupplying Russia’s forces west of the Dnipro River.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kherson.html?searchResultPosition=2

Still even the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive in Kherson Region, is still inflicting significant casualties amongst Ukrainian Offensive Units, regardless of the damage inflict to Russian and D&L Militias.

[size=12pt]WSJ:[/size]

By pushing Russian forces back in the regions of Kherson and Mykolaiv, where some of the fiercest fighting is currently under way, Ukrainian forces hope they will be able to loosen Russia’s grip on the south.

Even with the support of the Western weapons, the advances have been hard fought. In the village of Potiomkine late last month, Russian forces fired some 800 rounds on Ukrainian battalions, which found little cover in the open fields from heavy Russian bombardment, according to one of the commanders. Ukrainian forces managed to liberate the village with the help of the Himars, but many soldiers were killed in battle and vital weapons destroyed.

This week, the Pentagon said that Ukrainian forces killed a Russian commander in the Kherson region after using one of their new Himars to strike a Russian command center. Russian authorities also confirmed Tuesday that the Antonivsky Bridge in the region of Kherson was damaged with Himars. The bridge is a key supply line for Russian forces in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions and the city of Kryvyi Rih.

As part of the new offensive ordered by Mr. Zelensky, Ukrainian military officials said that operations were under way to liberate the towns of Nova Kakhovka and Arkhanhel’s’ke. If those missions are successful, Ukrainian forces will use their new long-range systems to start taking aim at Russian military targets in Crimea as early as this fall, a senior Ukrainian military official said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-faces-shortfall-in-weapons-as-it-gears-up-for-first-major-counteroffensive-11658398142?mod=hp_lead_pos6

Naturally Kherson Province is "Ground Zero" for the attempted Russian Fascist attempt to invade and occupy Ukraine to "expand their living room".

Fine for anybody interested pay a few buck for The Economist subscription.

Here is an article posted from their rag from 7/13/22:

Russian forward ammunition dumps are quite possibly the most unsafe places in any war zone,” explained an American army handbook published in 2016. Munitions were not stored safely, it noted, and many dated from the Soviet era, close to their expiry dates, creating “a tinderbox ready to explode”. “Priority targeting of these areas will cause a serious logistics strain on the Russian system,” it concluded. Ukrainian generals are now putting that theory to the test.

On July 11th a Russian ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka in southern Ukraine exploded in spectacular fashion. Satellite images showed that the entire facility vanished overnight. It is thought to be the latest victim of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (himars), which America began sending to Ukraine in late June.

America has provided eight launchers and on July 8th said it would send four more. Each one carries a pod of six gps-guided missiles accurate up to 84km or so—nearly three times the range of the howitzers sent earlier. American officials had been wary of providing more of these weapons until it was clear that Ukraine would use them effectively. Although they look superficially similar to Soviet-era rocket launchers, which rain down warheads over a large area, they are much more precise and need to be used judiciously to conserve ammunition.

So far, Ukraine appears to be passing that test. The Nova Kakhovka facility was thought to have been the 19th such depot to have gone up in flames since June 27th, according to a tally by Kyle Glen, an open-source analyst. A 20th followed in Luhansk city on July 12th. A strike on a command post in Kherson province on July 10th is said to have killed many senior officers, including the major-general in charge of the 22nd army corps.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army

[Badger]

BRRRRRRRRT!!
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184

OMG these would utterly decimate those motherless bastards in their long lines along highways. Please make it happen.

[Badger]

That number is probably correct but it should count DNR LNR and Wagner group.

But the amount of fake news in respected media is staggering. Ukrainians didn't down Russian jet, it was Russians that did it, friendly fire incidents. Talks about Russians more than Ukrainians to be honest. Also Guardian every two weeks talk about forced conscription in DNR when obligatory mobilization there started before February 24th. If I'm Ukrainian I'm worried that Russia lost third of it's starting invading group and most of it lost in the first phase of war. And yet Ukraininas are still on the defensive and their offensive capabilities are limited to arms depots and now bridges and nuclear plants. Oh, yes and twitter. Meanwhile Zelensky changes his childhood friend as a head of SBU and a prosecutor general as well..

So the main question is, if Russia has 60k casualties how much Ukrainians have?

Anyone who on ironically uses the term fake news has demonstrated themselves a non-entity completely worthy of being ignored

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1550216409300570116
Unknown amount of Russian soldiers are now trapped in the village of Vysokopillya in the Kherson region

Remember though, the Kherson offensive only exists on Twitter.

[jaichind]

Russia Central Bank

a) Lower rates to 8%, lower than before the war
b) expect 2022 GDP fall to be minus 4%-6% vs previous 8%-10%
c) expect 2022 inflation to be 15.5% vs previous 17.5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1550216409300570116
Unknown amount of Russian soldiers are now trapped in the village of Vysokopillya in the Kherson region

Remember though, the Kherson offensive only exists on Twitter.

It doesn’t, but Def Mon is claiming this part is overblown and extrapolated from one of his analyses where he thought Russian forces there might be close to encirclement.

https://www.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550436779664228355

I’m not going to discount the possibility as Def Mon is yet another faceless OSINT account, but they do get cited, followed etc. by some of the more well-credited analysts. They use pretty inflammatory language but often seem to put out fairly sober analyses of the facts on the ground. 

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1550216409300570116
Unknown amount of Russian soldiers are now trapped in the village of Vysokopillya in the Kherson region

Remember though, the Kherson offensive only exists on Twitter.

Nova noted above that a score of munitions depots have gone up in flames in the last three weeks. That seems like a lot. I look forward to reading an analysis as to just how much that will crimp Russia's style. The days of Russia just indiscriminately sending in missiles from afar at its leisure over populated areas to blow up whatever they might hit, might be coming to an end. If so, what does Russia do instead?  Send in demoralized troops who don't want to be there, and are poorly trained? 

[Woody]

Def Mon is the #1 source without a doubt during this whole conflict for me.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550436798475665409?cxt=HHwWgoCwvbeDoYQrAAAA
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550436809389359108

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Def Mon is the #1 source without a doubt during this whole conflict for me.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550436798475665409?cxt=HHwWgoCwvbeDoYQrAAAA
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550436809389359108

It's like a game of telephone.