Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[The Dowager Mod]

These pigs need to be hunted down.
https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1547656932885876736

[NOVA Green]

These pigs need to be hunted down.
https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1547656932885876736

It is pretty clear that we have conclusive evidence involving Russian War Crimes in Ukraine, with Bucha pretty much popping up every time as "Exhibit A".

Still, this is not a story which I had previously read, and although we have had many other witness statements and accounts of direct wholesale war crimes committed against defenseless Ukrainian Civilian Populations within various parts of Russian Occupied Ukraine, it is pretty clear that at least within this particular region Senior Russian Military Commanders were complicit in such activities.

Sure bombing civilian neighborhoods with weapons of mass destruction could also be considered war crimes, but the more we learn about the atrocities committed in places such as Bucha, the more it lends credence to the argument that such atrocities were perhaps not only "individually approved", but rather perhaps more a much larger scale Russian Military Culture of impunity for individual soldiers and NCOs, to basically do whatever they wanted to do.

Sure, the US has it's own share of such mass atrocities against civilian populations during times of war, for example the My Lai massacre of 1968, some (56) years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%E1%BB%B9_Lai_massacre

Here's an interview with the only survivor of the My Lai massacre:

[Virginiá]

I'm not entirely sure how these soldiers might be held accountable even if they are identified, because Russia is not going to cooperate. Maybe some sort of large bounty and offer of amnesty for any Russian soldier(s) who somehow help identified war criminals get captured? A large cash reward and the ability to move to Europe or America (since Russia would probably imprison them) seems ideal for otherwise impoverished Russian soldiers who might not even want to be there to begin with. Then again, those people may be war criminals themselves.

[Woody]

[bilaps]

Just saw a video of James Vasquez beaten by a random guy on subway. You really aren't sending your brightest, America.

[jaichind]

https://www.courthousenews.com/russian-missiles-strike-ukrainian-city-killing-more-than-20/

In a potentially crucial insight, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Thursday told Pink TV, a Serbian channel, that Putin may be poised to propose some kind of cease-fire deal once Russia begins its assault on the cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Avdeevka.

Vucic is believed to be one of the only European leaders to be in close communication with Putin. Serbia, a traditional ally of Russia, has refused to go along with Western sanctions against Russia. Serbia is not part of the European Union, though it is seeking entry.

“If they don’t accept him, hell awaits us all,” Vucic said. “And they won’t accept him.”

He predicted a scenario where Putin’s demands for Ukraine to cede control of territories to Russia and reject membership in NATO will be rebuffed.

I think what is going to take place is

a) Once Seversk-Bakhmut is captured by Russian forces (a matter of days now) Putin will make a peace offer for Ukraine for Ukraine to pull out of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka and cede all of Donetsk and then there will be a cease-fire where all Russian controlled territories in Ukraine be made into independent republics.  As part of the ceasefire rump Ukraine will also promise not to enter into NATO.

b) This offer will clearly be rejected by Ukraine and the collective West.

c) Upon rejection of this offer Russia will then take over Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka which would complete the Donetsk campaign and advance beyond it.

d) Russia will arrange referendums in all parts of occupied Ukraine for them to join Russia.

e) Once d) takes place even if and when there is some sort of Ukraine counteroffensive in late 2022 or early 2023 it will be moving into what Russia is sovereign Russian territory which would trigger a declaration of war by Russia which would be the "hell" Vucic is talking about.

All these are just lawyer tricks to justify the escalation of the war to the domestic Russian audience as well as the external pro-Russia audience when Putin does not get what he wants.  But what else do you expect, Putin has a lawyer background.  He wants it all nice and legal even though at the core this is just an invasion and annexation drive.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.courthousenews.com/russian-missiles-strike-ukrainian-city-killing-more-than-20/

In a potentially crucial insight, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Thursday told Pink TV, a Serbian channel, that Putin may be poised to propose some kind of cease-fire deal once Russia begins its assault on the cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Avdeevka.

Vucic is believed to be one of the only European leaders to be in close communication with Putin. Serbia, a traditional ally of Russia, has refused to go along with Western sanctions against Russia. Serbia is not part of the European Union, though it is seeking entry.

“If they don’t accept him, hell awaits us all,” Vucic said. “And they won’t accept him.”

He predicted a scenario where Putin’s demands for Ukraine to cede control of territories to Russia and reject membership in NATO will be rebuffed.

I think what is going to take place is

a) Once Seversk-Bakhmut is captured by Russian forces (a matter of days now) Putin will make a peace offer for Ukraine for Ukraine to pull out of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka and cede all of Donetsk and then there will be a cease-fire where all Russian controlled territories in Ukraine be made into independent republics.  As part of the ceasefire rump Ukraine will also promise not to enter into NATO.

b) This offer will clearly be rejected by Ukraine and the collective West.

c) Upon rejection of this offer Russia will then take over Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka which would complete the Donetsk campaign and advance beyond it.

d) Russia will arrange referendums in all parts of occupied Ukraine for them to join Russia.

e) Once d) takes place even if and when there is some sort of Ukraine counteroffensive in late 2022 or early 2023 it will be moving into what Russia is sovereign Russian territory which would trigger a declaration of war by Russia which would be the "hell" Vucic is talking about.

All these are just lawyer tricks to justify the escalation of the war to the domestic Russian audience as well as the external pro-Russia audience when Putin does not get what he wants.  But what else do you expect, Putin has a lawyer background.  He wants it all nice and legal even though at the core this is just an invasion and annexation drive.

That probably is Russia’s endgame but they were already trying that scam in Kherson and even a fake referendum can’t be pulled off if 99% of the local population hates you and is actively resisting your presence

[bilaps]

Yeah, don't see much activity from these 99%

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1548672638230355971

[Person Man]

https://www.courthousenews.com/russian-missiles-strike-ukrainian-city-killing-more-than-20/

In a potentially crucial insight, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Thursday told Pink TV, a Serbian channel, that Putin may be poised to propose some kind of cease-fire deal once Russia begins its assault on the cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Avdeevka.

Vucic is believed to be one of the only European leaders to be in close communication with Putin. Serbia, a traditional ally of Russia, has refused to go along with Western sanctions against Russia. Serbia is not part of the European Union, though it is seeking entry.

“If they don’t accept him, hell awaits us all,” Vucic said. “And they won’t accept him.”

He predicted a scenario where Putin’s demands for Ukraine to cede control of territories to Russia and reject membership in NATO will be rebuffed.

I think what is going to take place is

a) Once Seversk-Bakhmut is captured by Russian forces (a matter of days now) Putin will make a peace offer for Ukraine for Ukraine to pull out of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka and cede all of Donetsk and then there will be a cease-fire where all Russian controlled territories in Ukraine be made into independent republics.  As part of the ceasefire rump Ukraine will also promise not to enter into NATO.

b) This offer will clearly be rejected by Ukraine and the collective West.

c) Upon rejection of this offer Russia will then take over Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhovka-Konstantinovka which would complete the Donetsk campaign and advance beyond it.

d) Russia will arrange referendums in all parts of occupied Ukraine for them to join Russia.

e) Once d) takes place even if and when there is some sort of Ukraine counteroffensive in late 2022 or early 2023 it will be moving into what Russia is sovereign Russian territory which would trigger a declaration of war by Russia which would be the "hell" Vucic is talking about.

All these are just lawyer tricks to justify the escalation of the war to the domestic Russian audience as well as the external pro-Russia audience when Putin does not get what he wants.  But what else do you expect, Putin has a lawyer background.  He wants it all nice and legal even though at the core this is just an invasion and annexation drive.

What can he possibly do at this point that he hasn’t already…that he will do.

[Storr]

All those trucks are going to make tempting targets:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548684752135364608?s=20&t=rn6X53sPsb8z-9...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548687762949345283?s=20&t=rn6X53sPsb8z-9...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548691229893877762?s=20&t=rn6X53sPsb8z-9...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1548880685406068736?s=20&t=P2STRS168kWlr...

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1548865170692341762?s=20&t=P2STRS168...

[NOVA Green]

Mr. Zelensky has apparently just sacked his to top spy chiefs:

NYT:

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine fired his country’s prosecutor general and the leader of its domestic intelligence agency on Sunday, the most significant shake-up in his government since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February.

The dismissals of the prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, and Ivan Bakanov, the leader of the Security Service of Ukraine — and a childhood friend of the president — were announced in brief decrees. In a televised speech later Sunday night, Mr. Zelensky said he was responding to a large number of treason investigations opened into employees of law enforcement agencies, including the prosecutor general’s office and the domestic security agency.

Mr. Zelensky’s office ordered that Ms. Venediktova, who had assumed a prominent and very public role in Ukraine’s efforts to prosecute Russian war crimes and atrocities, be removed from her position. Another decree did the same for Mr. Bakanov, citing “Article 47 of the Disciplinary Statute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” That pertains to “failure to perform service duties, which led to human casualties or other grave consequences.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/18/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Here is the WP's coverage:

In his government’s most high-level shake-up during the war with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed Ivan Bakanov, head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU). Bakanov’s SBU, the domestic intelligence and security agency, had come under criticism since the start of the war after three former officials were charged with treason in late March.

Zelensky also fired Iryna Venediktova, the nation’s prosecutor general, who had been investigating war crimes.

As of Sunday, Ukraine had registered 651 criminal proceedings against employees across several high-level offices for allegedly collaborating with Russians or working against the nation’s goals, Zelensky said in his nightly address shortly after announcing the dismissals. Such officials will be held accountable, he said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/17/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news-live-updates/

WSJ Front Page:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky removed Ukraine’s general prosecutor and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine late Sunday amid allegations that their offices were riddled with officials who were collaborating with Russia.

While the dismissal of the prosecutor, Iryna Venediktova, surprised some analysts, the ouster of the security chief, Ivan Bakanov, had been forecast for some time. The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, has for years faced allegations that its ranks are infiltrated by Russian assets, claims bolstered by two recent high-profile arrests. The SBU is Ukraine’s main security and intelligence agency. It is separate from the GUR military-intelligence agency that plays the primary role in the war with Russia.

Posting on social media Sunday night, Mr. Zelensky said that 651 treason cases had been registered concerning workers in Ukrainian law-enforcement and the prosecutor’s office. He said that more than 60 employees of the SBU and prosecutor’s office were working for Russia in occupied areas of Ukraine.

“Such an array of crimes against the foundations of the national security of the state and the connections that have been recorded between the employees of the security forces of Ukraine and the special services of Russia pose very serious questions to the relevant leaders,” Mr. Zelensky wrote. “Each of these questions will receive a proper answer.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-strikes-intensify-as-moscow-aims-to-tighten-grip-on-donbas-11658059249?mod=hp_lead_pos9

The Guardian:

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has fired the head of Ukraine’s powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.

Sunday’s abrupt sackings of SBU chief Ivan Bakanov, a childhood friend of Zelenskiy, and the prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, who played a key role in the prosecution of Russian war crimes, were announced in executive orders on the president’s website.

In a Telegram post, Zelenskiy said he had fired the top officials because it had come to light that many members of their agencies had collaborated with Russia, a problem that he said had touched other agencies as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/17/zelenskiy-fires-ukraines-spy-chief-and-top-state-prosecutor

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, don't see much activity from these 99%

I know I shouldn't really, but.......you do know about passive resistance, right? That very few in the occupied areas are enthusiastically collaborating with Russia is confirmed by them off the record.

[bilaps]

Yeah, don't see much activity from these 99%

I know I shouldn't really, but.......you do know about passive resistance, right? That very few in the occupied areas are enthusiastically collaborating with Russia is confirmed by them off the record.

Yeah, passive resistance. When there is very few of active resistance, I guess passive or doing nothing will do. We were told that Russians will have trouble everywhere in Ukraine where they occupy, yet, not seeing widespread partisan activity or mass protests after first few weeks

So much winning for Ukraine continues btw with these latest Zelensky moves.

[jaichind]

Yeah, don't see much activity from these 99%

I know I shouldn't really, but.......you do know about passive resistance, right? That very few in the occupied areas are enthusiastically collaborating with Russia is confirmed by them off the record.

Well, I suspect Russia's position will be "All who are not against us are with us."  On the flip side I would not read the low level of partisan warfare that as there is no resistance to Russian rule since Southern Ukraine terrain is not really suited for partisan warfare.  In WWII the level of partisan activity in this region was quite low while the level of partisan activity in Northern Ukraine/Belorussia, especially around the area of Pinsk marshes, were quite high.  The main reason was the terrain around the Pinsk marshes was well suited for partisan warfare.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It really is impressive how quick bilaps is to respond in thread considering how busy he is sucking off Putin

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1548992984946974720

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1548992984946974720

It is important for the state (especially the Russian state) to stress that dead soldiers’ families will be compensated so that more hesitant men are prepared to become soldiers, but there’s something quite grim about the advertisement of a luxury purchase here.

However, our frames of reference may be skewed by the relative costs of luxury goods (compared to e.g. property) in the US or the UK. Maybe this gets the point across for impoverished Siberians, depending on whether a Lada is worth more than a mortgage, a family’s food security for X years, etc.

[bilaps]

It really is impressive how quick bilaps is to respond in thread considering how busy he is sucking off Putin

It's really impressive how your attempt of humor has stayed on a 5th grade level. Bet you score a lot like that.

[jaichind]

Just saw this

https://cobi.pl/en/soldiers-figures/ghost-of-kyiv---pilot-figure,art,12978.html

Ghost of Kyiv action figure toys

Reminds me of Starship Troopers 3 "Its a good time to die" Sky Marshal Anoke accessories with "Its a good day to buy"

https://youtu.be/j3sU8NPCYmc?t=38

[Storr]

Oops!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1548962354595069958?s=20&t=PEHQbADt25ssLS...

[Storr]

Oops!

[tweet snip]

More information on the Russian Su-34M that their own air defense shot down:

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1549014699710115840?s=20&t=ZhYtTEyicy526...

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1549018983537356800?s=20&t=ZhYtTEyicy526...

[Person Man]

This is embarrassing. Have any American planes have had a FF style incident before?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1549070271654535168