Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

Russia won't "invade" in a sense that they will cross into Ukraine with 200k soldiers and occupy land. They will make perfectly clear what their red lines are and one of those is Ukraine using TB2 drones on separatist positions for example. If they don't get reaction from the west and Ukraine they desire and Ukraine continues escalating they will anihilate Ukraine's army with missiles, they won't need to invade.

[bilaps]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

First, you don't have to apologize for anything.

Second, there are no fully pro-Russian regions. Yes, the East and the South are Russian-speaking, but even there the vast majority of the population wants to live in Ukraine. Yes, there is much less support for NATO and the EU there, but there is no desire to be part of Russia.

Third, as StateBoiler has said, it will set a dangerous precedent everywhere and will greatly strengthen separatist movements in Europe.

Fourth, even if we assume the hypothetical surrender of the South and the East, it will be a huge damage to Ukraine's economy. The South and the East are predominantly industrial areas, of which the state budget receives a significant share. The South is also a tourist area, millions of tourists go there to swim in the sea every year, including foreigners, which also brings significant income to the budget.

Wasn't the precedent set already when western countries recognized Kosovo independence?

[bilaps]

If Russia invades Ukraine, it helps the GOP either way.

If Biden doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who won't help protect our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Either message is extraordinarily dishonest, but it'll still work.

Politics is cynical, isn'it? Like when Trump banned China flights at the start of pandemic and Biden called him a racist for that.

[bilaps]

Zelensky also said he vows to take back Crimea. I don't think it's a likely scenario, but sure as hell I hope that's going to happen.

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1536593168635863042

Yeah, it's probably more likely that Russia takes Lviv than Ukraine takes Crimea.

[bilaps]

Zelensky also said he vows to take back Crimea. I don't think it's a likely scenario, but sure as hell I hope that's going to happen.

https://twitter.com/republic/status/1536593168635863042

Yeah, it's probably more likely that Russia takes Lviv than Ukraine takes Crimea.

Antonio, you made a grave mistake.

I'm really sorry.

Don't be so afraid of the truth. It can be mind opening.

[bilaps]

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

[bilaps]

I guess

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

Russia is losing the war lol cope

I don't know but I suspect if you wish something hard enough, it could be true in some moment. This situation is not that kind of moment but keep trying

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

So many places taken on this twitter offensive, yet no single proof or video from inside those settlements.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

So many places taken on this twitter offensive, yet no single proof or video from inside those settlements.

What went wrong that lead you to rooting on a country that is rounding up civilians and shooting them in the back of the head?
Edit: oh btw
https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995782745272321

What amuses me greatly is people who actualy beleive there is something like black and white in a war. One side is totally bad, the orcs as they call them and others are peaceful citizens, freedom fighters etc

[bilaps]

What amuses me greatly is people who actually believe there is something like black and white in a war. One side is totally bad, the orcs as they call them and others are peaceful citizens, freedom fighters etc

If that amuses you, you got a sick sense of humor.

Not black and white, but a lot closer to it than 90% of wars. When you got an authoritarian great power starting a war of conquest against a smaller and weaker neighbor they'll of course be viewed as the bad guys, once their soldiers start murdering, raping and looting that impression will be confirmed. A few examples of defenders torturing or killing POWs and other nasty stuff won't change that.

There are undoubtedly some black n' whiters, but mostly people recognize that Ukraine has its flaws. It's more that we think the Ukrainians have been admirably restrained compared to what one would have expected given the Russian atrocities.

But black or white is exactly what you're getting from western media. You won't here there anything about shelling of residential buildings in Donetsk and civilians getting killed there especialy in the last week or so even though shelling has basicaly started in 2014 and never ended.

Yes, Russians are agressors here, no doubt about that. But the war in Ukraine didn't start on Feb 24th. Someone actually wrote here the biggest truth accidentaly. Zelensky was elected as a candidate of peace, not as a war hawk but he governed as a war hawk. He didn't fulfill Minsk agreement for example.

[bilaps]

Girkin is full of BS, there is no reality in his words.

Also, famous twitter offensive against Kherson has reached a new peak after some geolocation showed attacks on Russians north of a village which Ukrainians allegedly took over.

And after that here comes admission

https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1538815817856450560

[bilaps]

And here is partisan activity in Melitopol, Zaporozhye region

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1538827122390728705

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1538996434342658055

Also there is increasing chatter that Russian response to oil rig attacks from Ukraine will be in the next few days or even tonight and that Ukraine's infrastructure or decision making centers in Kyiv will be hit.

[bilaps]

Insults keep coming, I guess it's allowed around here to insult someone but that's common case when you don't have arguments.

In the meantime, not all fake offensives on Kherson, and yellow dots on the fake maps can negate one thing. Russia is slowly winning this war. Lisychansk will soon be cut off and Ukrainians strategy is pretty clear now. They are using soldiers as a cannon fodder in an attempt to slow down Russian advances. We'll see what will that do for their morale. But so far results aren't great.

[bilaps]

UK intelligence says Russia has lost 55% of its forces in Donbas: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629221/russia-outdated-weapons-donbas-dpr-ukraine-forces-ministry-defence-update

b-b-b-but Russia is winning, Ukraine can't go on much longer, they must negotiate with Mr. Putin who is a very reasonable man who will listen to them etc.

Imagine that you beleive UK intelligence as some sort of neutral observer in the conflict. Also they didn't even say Russia has lost 55% of its troops, rather it was DNR. And then, if you would actually beleive this, imagine how many UKR lost of its troops since they're retreating and losing ground

[bilaps]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

[bilaps]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

No. The UK MoD statement notes the importance of reserve units and refers to 55% of the original DPR force. It reads:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1539473242678779905
It's not fake news, but I'd argue there's some spin in the statement.

Ok, I could agree on that.

One question, since you're from UK and you follow this war in depth. Would you agree that UK Intelligence updates throughout the war were propaganda on let's say basicaly RT level?

[bilaps]

But what about famous Kherson offensive?

HIMARS will help Ukraine no doubt. They will help in killing Russians in which place will come some new Russians. It won't change trajectory of a war. Ukraine had SMERCH systems on the begining of the war, they have Tochkas still..

[bilaps]

Exactly, people need to chill.
https://twitter.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1540840552190689280

Lol, what a nonsense. You can spin it as you like, it's not going to change the outcome.

Every town or city Russia takes they say "yeah but they averted Russian troops". Averted from where? Like Russians didn't want to take Mariupol or Severodonetsk. I mean it would be funny take if it isn't so stupid.

[bilaps]

Exactly, people need to chill.

Lol, what a nonsense. You can spin it as you like, it's not going to change the outcome.

Every town or city Russia takes they say "yeah but they averted Russian troops". Averted from where? Like Russians didn't want to take Mariupol or Severodonetsk. I mean it would be funny take if it isn't so stupid.

I would not call it nonsense.  Most of that stuff is just repeating what sites like ISW say.  But one should view ISW as what it is which is a pro-Ukraine propaganda outlet which one should take what they say with a grain of salt just like plenty of stuff out there that I would label as pro-Russia propaganda.  I would not any of them nonsense but would label them as giving insight on what the intentions of both sides are which is useful.  What is not clear is whether what is taking place matches what their (both sides) intentions might be.  The fog of war makes it hard to tell what is taking place.  In the meantime, propaganda venues like ISW and other pro-Russia sources do tell us what they intend to happened.

I disagree. If you call attack on SD diverting resources from other fronts and so blatantly claim that Russians are not be able to hold it without any shred od evidence it may be propaganda but it's a textbook nonsense. When Lysychansk falls, Severodonetsk will be as far from the frontline as Mariupol.

[bilaps]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

Watching our resident Putin apologist / cheerleader being so butthurt over the reality that Ukraine is still very much in a fight truly has made my morning.

Lol. If you say so.

[bilaps]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1540700523258683392
Contrary to what some certain pro-Russia poster here wants to push the battle of Severdonetsk went about how Ukraine wanted it to by force Russia to exhaust it’s firepower and then successfully withdraw to better defensive position

I guess if you wish something really hard and close your eyes and make a wish stories say it could happen? Only thing is this is war and something like that never happens.

We are hearing stories of depleted Russian army going low on missiles and manpower, morale plummetnig for 2 months now at least. Yet, Russia lobs 60 missiles on Ukraine day after Severodonetsk fall and continues to launch them every single day. Not to mention artillery advantage.

Watching our resident Putin apologist / cheerleader being so butthurt over the reality that Ukraine is still very much in a fight truly has made my morning.

Lol. If you say so.

It's not a question of anybody "saying so". Russia has had to completely abandon its original war aim (regime change in Kyiv, probably with some sort of endgame of bringing a puppet Ukraine into the Union State and CSTO). The fact that it's having more success at its current, significantly more modest war aims than most people on this forum would like doesn't come even remotely close to mutual exclusivity with the fact that Kyiv and points west are safe from ground assaults to a degree that looked very unlikely to say the least in late February.

Well, you are responding to an argument I never made. If you look at the tweet I was responding to, it's pretty clear that I am talking about Severodonetsk at generaly this 2nd phase of operation. I'm not arguing against initial phase being a failure even though there were some success east and south.

[bilaps]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

It's not. Only in Mariupol there were at least 1000 Azov fighters. And their influence on government is far greater than it's admitted numbers of personel.

What I'm saying is literally incontrovertibly true.