Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

[jaichind]

There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity. 

I guess you'll just have to find a way to live with it.

Of course, I will.  Each media is free to cover which news it wants to cover and I for one cannot dictate to them what they find newsworthy.  I find it more objectionable that the Norway hosts refuse to even post the name of Galiia Sharafetdinova on its electronic board of perfect scorers on its podium when objectively she did get a perfect score.

As for the Western media, I just find it funny that on the one hand, they are so desperate to get some gender equity in male-dominated ecosystems that they would make up a superstar chess player in "The Queen's Gambit" for chess but then ignore a real-life example of a girl breaking through and performing at the very top level of high school math competition because she is "politically incorrect."  Like I said this feels like Cultural Revolution logic of "Red" over "Expert".

[afleitch]

There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity. 

I guess you'll just have to find a way to live with it.

Of course, I will.  Each media is free to cover which news it wants to cover and I for one cannot dictate to them what they find newsworthy.  I find it more objectionable that the Norway hosts refuse to even post the name of Galiia Sharafetdinova on its electronic board of perfect scorers on its podium when objectively she did get a perfect score.

As for the Western media, I just find it funny that on the one hand, they are so desperate to get some gender equity in male-dominated ecosystems that they would make up a superstar chess player in "The Queen's Gambit" for chess but then ignore a real-life example of a girl breaking through and performing at the very top level of high school math competition because she is "politically incorrect."  Like I said this feels like Cultural Revolution logic of "Red" over "Expert".

I mean the 'Western Media' doesn't cover the Connect 4 Championships.

[afleitch]

Anyway a day after the grain 'deal', trustworthy Russia has struck the port at Odessa.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

[Cassius]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

Sanctions against Russia should absolutely be rolled back, on a case-by-case basis, if it is in the national interest of the United States, regardless of the context in which they were originally put in place.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

Most of the world still has no choice but to "trust" the West and its institutions, because that's the only way in which the game of global capitalism is played. There's simply no way of achieving long-term development without a significant amount of trade with OECD countries. Some countries have played the game well enough that they've made the West as dependent on them as they are on us (either though sheer size like China or by specializing on a key commodity like Saudi Arabia) but that's not the same as having the resources needed to supplant the West as a provider of FDIs and a consumer market (for that latter purpose, of course, the obscene inequality of these countries is a key barrier). That will probably change eventually, but it will take decades.

I find it interesting that you're engaging in the same kind of Western defeatism that we normally see on the third-worldist left. I guess simping for autocrats makes strange bedfellows.

[Cassius]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

Sanctions against Russia should absolutely be rolled back, on a case-by-case basis, if it is in the national interest of the United States, regardless of the context in which they were originally put in place.

Removing all sanctions against Russia is in the interests of every country bar Ukraine (and perhaps Georgia and the Baltic statelets) - won’t happen though until we see a) how bad the  economic self-harm being inflicted upon Western countries gets (for which we’ll probably have to wait until later this year) and b) whether Ukrainian hopes of further territorial gains from the Russian forces stall (or even go into reverse, although that might be counterproductive, as renewed Russian gains will strengthen the anti-Russia lobby).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

[jaichind]

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

I think the reading of these numbers from the Russian point of view would be: There is no reason for us to stop the war.  What damage we took has already taken place and could not be reversed.  Going forward marginal economic impact would be greater on the collective West side.  On the medium run time is on our side.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

I think the reading of these numbers from the Russian point of view would be: There is no reason for us to stop the war.  What damage we took has already taken place and could not be reversed.  Going forward marginal economic impact would be greater on the collective West side.  On the medium run time is on our side.

It seems pretty optimistic to suggest the worst is over for Russia. Sure, some of the sanctions had their immediate effect and can't do much more than they already have, but plenty of others are designed to hace an impact over the long term - everything from import bans of chips that will make a lot of basic tech much harder to operate, to curbs on energy exports that start taking effect at the beginning of next year and which will sting all the more if energy prices end up going down across the board. There is plenty of pain to come for Russia, and it's in no way comparable to the minor economic downturn that's happening in the West.

[jaichind]

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

I think the reading of these numbers from the Russian point of view would be: There is no reason for us to stop the war.  What damage we took has already taken place and could not be reversed.  Going forward marginal economic impact would be greater on the collective West side.  On the medium run time is on our side.

It seems pretty optimistic to suggest the worst is over for Russia. Sure, some of the sanctions had their immediate effect and can't do much more than they already have, but plenty of others are designed to hace an impact over the long term - everything from import bans of chips that will make a lot of basic tech much harder to operate, to curbs on energy exports that start taking effect at the beginning of next year and which will sting all the more if energy prices end up going down across the board. There is plenty of pain to come for Russia, and it's in no way comparable to the minor economic downturn that's happening in the West.

Sure.  Note I said medium run and not long run.  Also, it's not like the war ending would mean these sanctions go away so Russia might as well go for the largest possible political-military victory it can get on the ground over the next few months.  After that, it will just be a waiting game on when the Russian economy starts to deteriorate over time versus the speed of the collective West getting tired of paying for an economic basket case for Ukraine if the conflict does not stop.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, yeah, the ultimate point will be to see if the West is willing to endure minor economic pain longer than Putin is willing/able to let Russia endure major economic pain. It's been clear for a while that this is what the conflict will ultimately boil down to. And it is very much an open question, because Westerners' past attitudes to economic pain and their painfully short attention spans don't exactly inspire confidence.

Still, at least for now, we are doing exactly what we ought to be doing (well, not enough, but still a lot). And the idea that this is "hurting us more than it's hurting Russia" is an active contributor to the propaganda that's helping to weaken our collective resolve. It's empirically, demonstrably false and those who spread it have a very clear motive for doing so.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, yeah, the ultimate point will be to see if the West is willing to endure minor economic pain longer than Putin is willing/able to let Russia endure major economic pain. It's been clear for a while that this is what the conflict will ultimately boil down to. And it is very much an open question, because Westerners' past attitudes to economic pain and their painfully short attention spans don't exactly inspire more confidence.

Still, at least for now, we are doing exactly what we ought to be doing (well, not enough, but still a lot). And the idea that this is "hurting us more than it's hurting Russia" is an active contributor to the propaganda that's helping to weaken our collective resolve. It's empirically, demonstrably false and those who spread it have a very clear motive for doing so.

Yup, that's a pretty good analysis.

I agree that it's overall hurting Russia much more, whose economy solely depends on energy exports and increasingly on the PRC, though Putin contrary to Western govts has the big advantage of public opinion at home. He can actively influence public opinion through state media propaganda and doesn't have to worry about being voted out of office. That's not the case in Western countries, and unfortunately there is no consensus across all partylines to stay the course. 20-30 years ago, that wouldn't have been much of an issue in America, today it is.

[bilaps]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

[Storr]

Ukraine has been clearly targeting bridges in the Kherson area over the past few days.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550828836291575808?s=20&t=MTinDJkYrJJV-5...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550828846789890048?s=20&t=MTinDJkYrJJV-5...

https://twitter.com/bhginee/status/1550829704869027841?s=20&t=MTinDJkYrJJV-5...

[Cassius]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

Probably should’ve phrased the comment in a more disciplined manner. Obviously, “the West” will continue doing business with “the rest” (just as we have continued to do business with Russia, because a full unwinding of our economic relations is impossible). Nonetheless, the actions of Western governments will damage their ability to exert influence over the rest of the world in the long run, continuing the process that, yes, involved the Iraq debacle, the financial crisis etc. Take an example - the Canadian government passed a bill last month enabling the expropriation of the assets of Russians in Canada, based on the dubious assumption that these all of these individuals are in some way responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. If you’re a Chinese investor, or a Saudi investor, or an Indian investor, and you’ve put money away in a Western bank or in Western real estate under the assumption that this money would be safe as long as you complied with that country’s laws (rule of law!!!) this is going to give you significant pause for thought, as you’ll be thinking “gee, if my government does something that upsets the West am I going to lose my money”? Too soon to say how this will unfold, but I think a slowdown in investment by “the Rest” in “the West” is a likely outcome of the unhinged Western response to the war in Ukraine. Why place your faith in Western rule of law if it can be junked at the drop of a hat?

The same of course goes for other flows of trade and investment; de-dollarisation is also going to be accelerated by this. All this will, in time, reduce the ability of Western governments to throw their weight around. Alternative institutions will be constructed, countries outside “the West” will seek means to insulate themselves from Western meddling, as the Russians have already (incompletely) done. You know, the policy of massive sanctions has already failed; it has not forced Russia to end the war; it has not prevented a single death or war crime. We should have known this would happen, given that massive sanctions have not worked against any other country in recent history. All that remains is the spectacle of Western governments desperately scrabbling around for ‘things to do’ to ‘punish’ Russia, as they push their own economies into recession and hurt the well-being of their own citizens. Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

[Storr]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

You think a Russian crackup is unlikely to occur faster than... the collapse of the whole Western-dominated global capitalist system that has existed in some form or other since the 1850s?

And these people call themselves "realists". Good grief.

[Frodo]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

More like Orban is making the point that everyone knows this is a proxy war between Russia and the United States.  Ukraine wouldn't continue to exist as an independent entity without the support of the United States.  Aka, we are the ones who are really in charge, and that we are the ones whom Russia should be negotiating with. 

Looked at from that perspective, it makes sense. 

[Person Man]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

More like Orban is making the point that everyone knows this is a proxy war between Russia and the United States.  Ukraine wouldn't continue to exist as an independent entity without the support of the United States.  Aka, we are the ones who are really in charge, and that we are the ones whom Russia should be negotiating with.  

Looked at from that perspective, it makes sense.  

Maybe if both sides took responsibility, we could avoid a nuclear war. It would require the Russians to accept that Ukraine is part of the west and if they don’t want Ukraine to be part of the west, then they must defeat the west.

[Mopsus]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

[urutzizu]

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

Probably should’ve phrased the comment in a more disciplined manner. Obviously, “the West” will continue doing business with “the rest” (just as we have continued to do business with Russia, because a full unwinding of our economic relations is impossible). Nonetheless, the actions of Western governments will damage their ability to exert influence over the rest of the world in the long run, continuing the process that, yes, involved the Iraq debacle, the financial crisis etc. Take an example - the Canadian government passed a bill last month enabling the expropriation of the assets of Russians in Canada, based on the dubious assumption that these all of these individuals are in some way responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. If you’re a Chinese investor, or a Saudi investor, or an Indian investor, and you’ve put money away in a Western bank or in Western real estate under the assumption that this money would be safe as long as you complied with that country’s laws (rule of law!!!) this is going to give you significant pause for thought, as you’ll be thinking “gee, if my government does something that upsets the West am I going to lose my money”? Too soon to say how this will unfold, but I think a slowdown in investment by “the Rest” in “the West” is a likely outcome of the unhinged Western response to the war in Ukraine. Why place your faith in Western rule of law if it can be junked at the drop of a hat?

The same of course goes for other flows of trade and investment; de-dollarisation is also going to be accelerated by this. All this will, in time, reduce the ability of Western governments to throw their weight around. Alternative institutions will be constructed, countries outside “the West” will seek means to insulate themselves from Western meddling, as the Russians have already (incompletely) done. You know, the policy of massive sanctions has already failed; it has not forced Russia to end the war; it has not prevented a single death or war crime. We should have known this would happen, given that massive sanctions have not worked against any other country in recent history. All that remains is the spectacle of Western governments desperately scrabbling around for ‘things to do’ to ‘punish’ Russia, as they push their own economies into recession and hurt the well-being of their own citizens. Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

The distrust point is correct, but I really doubt whether it will be enough. With China at least the distrust has been there for a very long time, at least since 2012 (see: Document No.9), the Chinese government has definitely identified any dependence on the west as a massive threat to national security, and tried to ensure it is sanctions-proof from sanctions through western (or western-aligned) financial markets, tech etc. and it hasn't really worked. If anything they have gone in the other direction. Which is why you have seen China cooperate with the SEC regarding HFCAA, to avoid getting Chinese companies delisted from US stock exchange. Or semiconductor where China is extremely dependent, and although making efforts, imports have actually increased further recently. And fundamentally, you also need an alternative, which so far isn't forthcoming. It is a quagmire, because the Chinese capital controls stop it from becoming a more attractive alternative, and the Yuan replace the Dollar, on the other hand Beijing cannot give up the financial controls, because they are crucial to the economic model and would make the country much, much more vulnerable to the west. And there are obviously, well publicized currently, other aspects of the Chinese financial market, make it less attractive and more high risk, which is and will be a likely permanent push factor.

It's why a couple of months ago, Chinese authorities met for this reason with representatives of all large foreign and domestic banks operating in China, but when they told them to reduce exposure to the west in preparation of sanctions over Taiwan, the unanimous answer was "Sorry it's impossible, it would require totally changing our entire economic model":

https://www.ft.com/content/45d5fcac-3e6d-420a-ac78-4b439e24b5de

“No one on site could think of a good solution to the problem,” said another person briefed on the meeting. “China’s banking system isn’t prepared for a freeze of its dollar assets or exclusion from the Swift messaging system as the US has done to Russia.”

When one official asked Chinese bankers if they could diversify into more yen or euro-backed assets, they replied that the idea was not practical.

Of course as pointed out in the article, it goes both ways: Considering how painful economic war is proving for the west against Russia, doing it to China would be completely impossible, so China can allow exposure as it is essentially "too big to sanction". Although China is probably the only western adversary in this position.

[Person Man]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

Or at least the thinking that free trade leads to political liberation needs to be retired and replaced by one that puts political freedom first before free trade .