Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

Probably should’ve phrased the comment in a more disciplined manner. Obviously, “the West” will continue doing business with “the rest” (just as we have continued to do business with Russia, because a full unwinding of our economic relations is impossible). Nonetheless, the actions of Western governments will damage their ability to exert influence over the rest of the world in the long run, continuing the process that, yes, involved the Iraq debacle, the financial crisis etc. Take an example - the Canadian government passed a bill last month enabling the expropriation of the assets of Russians in Canada, based on the dubious assumption that these all of these individuals are in some way responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. If you’re a Chinese investor, or a Saudi investor, or an Indian investor, and you’ve put money away in a Western bank or in Western real estate under the assumption that this money would be safe as long as you complied with that country’s laws (rule of law!!!) this is going to give you significant pause for thought, as you’ll be thinking “gee, if my government does something that upsets the West am I going to lose my money”? Too soon to say how this will unfold, but I think a slowdown in investment by “the Rest” in “the West” is a likely outcome of the unhinged Western response to the war in Ukraine. Why place your faith in Western rule of law if it can be junked at the drop of a hat?

The same of course goes for other flows of trade and investment; de-dollarisation is also going to be accelerated by this. All this will, in time, reduce the ability of Western governments to throw their weight around. Alternative institutions will be constructed, countries outside “the West” will seek means to insulate themselves from Western meddling, as the Russians have already (incompletely) done. You know, the policy of massive sanctions has already failed; it has not forced Russia to end the war; it has not prevented a single death or war crime. We should have known this would happen, given that massive sanctions have not worked against any other country in recent history. All that remains is the spectacle of Western governments desperately scrabbling around for ‘things to do’ to ‘punish’ Russia, as they push their own economies into recession and hurt the well-being of their own citizens. Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

The distrust point is correct, but I really doubt whether it will be enough. With China at least the distrust has been there for a very long time, at least since 2012 (see: Document No.9), the Chinese government has definitely identified any dependence on the west as a massive threat to national security, and tried to ensure it is sanctions-proof from sanctions through western (or western-aligned) financial markets, tech etc. and it hasn't really worked. If anything they have gone in the other direction. Which is why you have seen China cooperate with the SEC regarding HFCAA, to avoid getting Chinese companies delisted from US stock exchange. Or semiconductor where China is extremely dependent, and although making efforts, imports have actually increased further recently. And fundamentally, you also need an alternative, which so far isn't forthcoming. It is a quagmire, because the Chinese capital controls stop it from becoming a more attractive alternative, and the Yuan replace the Dollar, on the other hand Beijing cannot give up the financial controls, because they are crucial to the economic model and would make the country much, much more vulnerable to the west. And there are obviously, well publicized currently, other aspects of the Chinese financial market, make it less attractive and more high risk, which is and will be a likely permanent push factor.

It's why a couple of months ago, Chinese authorities met for this reason with representatives of all large foreign and domestic banks operating in China, but when they told them to reduce exposure to the west in preparation of sanctions over Taiwan, the unanimous answer was "Sorry it's impossible, it would require totally changing our entire economic model":

https://www.ft.com/content/45d5fcac-3e6d-420a-ac78-4b439e24b5de

“No one on site could think of a good solution to the problem,” said another person briefed on the meeting. “China’s banking system isn’t prepared for a freeze of its dollar assets or exclusion from the Swift messaging system as the US has done to Russia.”

When one official asked Chinese bankers if they could diversify into more yen or euro-backed assets, they replied that the idea was not practical.

Of course as pointed out in the article, it goes both ways: Considering how painful economic war is proving for the west against Russia, doing it to China would be completely impossible, so China can allow exposure as it is essentially "too big to sanction". Although China is probably the only western adversary in this position.

Just completed my online $50 trial hard copy delivery of the "Salmon Paper" to my home address vs work address which basically only works out to something like $17/Month for Trial.

During the Digital Sub was $1/mo for three months and then jump to something like $70 Month.

Considering the amount of time I spent on mass transit commuting to and from the factory, tend to prefer a "bird in the hand" vs "two in the bush", since my "old man eyes" aren't great at reading articles on tiny little cell phone machines, so why contribute to myopia???

Final stages was a bit of technical glitch after I had entered my financials.

Still, was able to pull up the article and FT (No Joke) is well worth the price of admission, even for those who do not consider themselves part of the Capitalist Class.

Dank reporting and very interesting read!!!

[Storr]

Two Americans were previously KIA in Ukraine; Willy Joseph Cancel, 22 and Stephen D. Zabielski, 52. Two are POWs held by "separatists"; Alexander Drueke, 39 and Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh, 27. One is MIA and presumed dead; Grady Kurpasi, 49.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1550904076971409408?s=20&t=tZMfE65B...

[Cassius]

Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

You think a Russian crackup is unlikely to occur faster than... the collapse of the whole Western-dominated global capitalist system that has existed in some form or other since the 1850s?

And these people call themselves "realists". Good grief.

The latter is... not what I meant (not least since Russia is integrated into the global capitalist system alongside every other damn polity in the world besides that of the Sentinelese spear chuckers) - what I meant was that when the consequences of the polices pursued by Western governments over the last months work themselves out over the next year or so then, the climbdown will occur, in terms of a gradual relaxation of sanctions and efforts to normalise relations. Obviously, the stakes are higher for Russia; a Western climbdown means embarrassment and sheepishness for Western governments and opinion formers; Russian failure in Ukraine means the potential collapse of the Putinist system (although, obviously, governments collapses through the usual means can't be ruled out in the West) and thus the possible collapse of the Russian Federation as it presently exists. This is, of course, the usually unstated and occasionally stated goal of the anti-Russia lobby in the West; nonetheless, it is a foolish goal, given that whatever replaces Putin in "Russian Russia", at the very least, is unlikely to be more sympathetic to the interests of Western opinion formers  (regardless of what the emigres say, but then emigres are always the most irrelevant people to take advice from, whether they be the French royalists in the 1790s, the White Russians in the 1920s, or liberal Russian expats like Andrei Kozyrev in 2022) and much more likely to generate further instability in the region.

Really, as I've said before, this whole area is one we should have steered well clear of. Unfortunately, the 'cross-in-a-box-every-five-years' fetishism of the Western opinion forming establishment got the better of common sense.

[Woody]

Meanwhile in Africa

https://www.africanews.com/amp/2022/03/05/pro-russia-protesters-rally-in-central-african-republic/

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

You think a Russian crackup is unlikely to occur faster than... the collapse of the whole Western-dominated global capitalist system that has existed in some form or other since the 1850s?

And these people call themselves "realists". Good grief.

The latter is... not what I meant (not least since Russia is integrated into the global capitalist system alongside every other damn polity in the world besides that of the Sentinelese spear chuckers) - what I meant was that when the consequences of the polices pursued by Western governments over the last months work themselves out over the next year or so then, the climbdown will occur, in terms of a gradual relaxation of sanctions and efforts to normalise relations. Obviously, the stakes are higher for Russia; a Western climbdown means embarrassment and sheepishness for Western governments and opinion formers; Russian failure in Ukraine means the potential collapse of the Putinist system (although, obviously, governments collapses through the usual means can't be ruled out in the West) and thus the possible collapse of the Russian Federation as it presently exists. This is, of course, the usually unstated and occasionally stated goal of the anti-Russia lobby in the West; nonetheless, it is a foolish goal, given that whatever replaces Putin in "Russian Russia", at the very least, is unlikely to be more sympathetic to the interests of Western opinion formers  (regardless of what the emigres say, but then emigres are always the most irrelevant people to take advice from, whether they be the French royalists in the 1790s, the White Russians in the 1920s, or liberal Russian expats like Andrei Kozyrev in 2022) and much more likely to generate further instability in the region.

Really, as I've said before, this whole area is one we should have steered well clear of. Unfortunately, the 'cross-in-a-box-every-five-years' fetishism of the Western opinion forming establishment got the better of common sense.

Well as I said, it's been clear for a long time that Western resolve is the key variable here. It's just hard to take your posts about it seriously when you're so transparently working to undermine it (and have an avowed financial incentive in doing so). Whatever Western governments end up doing, I'd hope at least they aren't influenced by literal paid Russia shills.

Nice of you to also throw the casual contempt for democracy in there as well. Speaking of ticking boxes, you're doing a great job filling out the checklist of the standard Putin sycophant.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/ukraine-lowered-to-c-by-fitch-as-default-like-process-begins#xj4y7vzkg

"Ukraine Downgraded by Fitch as ‘Default-Like’ Process Begins"

Ukraine is moving toward default.   It is clear Ukraine will move today delaying payments and likely restructuring its debt.  This is a bit strange as Ukraine's external debt was actually pretty under control.  I suspect this is more of a move to force more economic aid from the collective West.  Ukraine also devalued UAH by 25% a couple of days ago.  That seems to be a move to try to retain the foreign currency reserve situation in Ukraine.

[bilaps]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

When it's all said and done only lesson countries should take is that their western friends will defend them but not really defend them. And the price you pay for being western lackey is tens of thousands probably hundreds of thousands at the end killed and a country fully destroyed.

Imagine also using free world not sarcastically

[bilaps]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

You are missing on what will probably at the end be the biggest proxy war ever.

[Pericles]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

When it's all said and done only lesson countries should take is that their western friends will defend them but not really defend them. And the price you pay for being western lackey is tens of thousands probably hundreds of thousands at the end killed and a country fully destroyed.

Imagine also using free world not sarcastically

No country can accept being invaded and having its territory taken, and would have to fight against any odds to keep its sovereignty. Ukraine has fought bravely and done very well by keeping most of its territory. 

As a side note, losing tens of thousands is no crippling disaster for a country that lost eight million people in the Second World War to beat an enemy that also wanted to destroy its nationhood and culture (though it was more genocidal).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

More like Orban is making the point that everyone knows this is a proxy war between Russia and the United States.  Ukraine wouldn't continue to exist as an independent entity without the support of the United States.  Aka, we are the ones who are really in charge, and that we are the ones whom Russia should be negotiating with.  

Looked at from that perspective, it makes sense.  

I would question whether this is true. All parties involved are incentivised to overstate the impact of relatively small deliveries of Western weapons - the suppliers so they can get good PR, the Russians so that they can avoid embarrassment, and Ukraine so they can get more.

They won the first phase with Soviet and post-Soviet weapons. Their Bayraktars are purchased, not sent as aid, and may soon be 100% domestically manufactured (they already make Bayraktar engines). This is also true for their Polish howitzers and many other weapons being classed as “aid”, although they may well be getting favourable deals on these. All of their medium and long-range air defences are their own besides one S-300 battery out of 101 pre-war batteries (in addition to other systems), and some of the “HIMARS” strikes are actually Tochkas, Vilkhas, etc. They sunk the Moskva with a domestically produced Neptune, not a Harpoon.

I believe this is part of why Russia invaded. The West was reluctant to sell weapons to Ukraine pre-war on grounds of “escalation”, so they developed their own, cooperated with Turkey and were one of the leading competitors to Russia when it came to post-Soviet arms dealing. Europe and the US might have gotten weaker if Russia had waited, but Ukraine would have done the opposite.

Especially when it comes to artillery, Western support has probably been decisive in the second phase of the war. Russia would control more of Ukraine were it not for foreign support. But that doesn’t mean they’d definitely be able to retain control in the face of an insurgency, or that they’d be able to project that strength all the way into the west of Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

Of course. My point was that Western countries’ responses to the war in Ukraine would have less direct bearing on their relationships with most other countries than these crises. If you aren’t going to stop doing business with America even when they do a regime change, you’re not going to stop just because they sanction Russia over a war.

[jaichind]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/boris-johnson-throws-grenade-visits-155328568.html

"Boris Johnson throws a grenade as he visits Ukrainian troops training in Britain"

One last act by Boris Johnson as he trains with Ukrainian troops.  Boris holding a bazooka reminds me of Dukakis's 1988 tank ride.

[jaichind]

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/mbs-discusses-oil-supply-putin-days-after-hosting-biden

"Mohammed bin Salman discusses oil supply with Putin days after hosting Biden"

As soon as Biden leaves Saudia Arabia, Putin and MBS have a call about coordination on world oil supply.

[bilaps]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

When it's all said and done only lesson countries should take is that their western friends will defend them but not really defend them. And the price you pay for being western lackey is tens of thousands probably hundreds of thousands at the end killed and a country fully destroyed.

Imagine also using free world not sarcastically

No country can accept being invaded and having its territory taken, and would have to fight against any odds to keep its sovereignty. Ukraine has fought bravely and done very well by keeping most of its territory. 

As a side note, losing tens of thousands is no crippling disaster for a country that lost eight million people in the Second World War to beat an enemy that also wanted to destroy its nationhood and culture (though it was more genocidal).

No country can accept being invaded, that's true of course. But you do everything in your power to avoid that. And Ukraine hasn't done that, one could argue that their behaviour did the opposite. Ukraine will end this war in the best case scenario with different borders and smaller territory they control. And the price they pay for NATO expansion further to the East is the one you see now, and you'll continue to see.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

They did destroy reputation west has around the world. Which is evident as soon as you actualy get out of western countries. Nobody besides west really loves west but the smaller countries and bigger too are dependent on dealing with the west because of their economic power and sometimes military power.

If there’s one lesson to take away from this war it’s that free nations cannot allow themselves to rely on tyrannies for key parts of their economies. It’s past time that the free world become economically self-sufficient.

When it's all said and done only lesson countries should take is that their western friends will defend them but not really defend them. And the price you pay for being western lackey is tens of thousands probably hundreds of thousands at the end killed and a country fully destroyed.

Imagine also using free world not sarcastically

No country can accept being invaded and having its territory taken, and would have to fight against any odds to keep its sovereignty. Ukraine has fought bravely and done very well by keeping most of its territory. 

As a side note, losing tens of thousands is no crippling disaster for a country that lost eight million people in the Second World War to beat an enemy that also wanted to destroy its nationhood and culture (though it was more genocidal).

No country can accept being invaded, that's true of course. But you do everything in your power to avoid that. And Ukraine hasn't done that, one could argue that their behaviour did the opposite. Ukraine will end this war in the best case scenario with different borders and smaller territory they control. And the price they pay for NATO expansion further to the East is the one you see now, and you'll continue to see.

They had the audacity to exist as a sovereign nation. The nerve

[CumbrianLefty]

Ukraine provoking Russia simply by existing, that's basically it.

[Red Velvet]

Of course as pointed out in the article, it goes both ways: Considering how painful economic war is proving for the west against Russia, doing it to China would be completely impossible, so China can allow exposure as it is essentially "too big to sanction". Although China is probably the only western adversary in this position.

Not just China tbh.

It’s one thing sanctioning some few small third world countries for example, but if the West accumulates lots of “punishments” against multiple third world countries, even if they happen to be smaller, all of them in general will search for alternatives to the West and eventually it becomes more like a “self-sanctioning” where the US keeps Europe chained to themselves as their colony in a westernized bubble while all the world preferentially makes deals between themselves while starting to turn their backs to the West.

I warned this here when the conflict started but no one wanted to listen because it wasn’t convenient to the only accepted narrative from the West. Places like India are buying Russian oil for much cheaper prices than ever before and selling it with higher prices to the West, so what real damage is being done to Russia? lmao. Westerners are sacrificing their comfort and lifestyle to do minor harm to Russia and making other places richer.

Here in Brazil we practically never bought Russian oil (it’s more fertilizers that we import from them) but we’re starting to want to because the prices are now worth it. And this isn’t a right or left thing, neither a pro-democracy or anti-democracy one, it’s a national political consensus from both Bolsonaro and Lula, the top 2 candidates for the election. They’re supposed to be defend interests of Brazil after all. And every other country thinks in the same way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WilsonLeeFlores/status/1546783615475798018
https://mobile.twitter.com/WilsonLeeFlores/status/1546783615475798018

The matter is not just Russia. If the West insists on actively pushing a reversal of globalization through this nationalist security narrative we saw being popularized post Ukraine War, it’s bound to get retribution from the third world who won’t accept turning the clock back when they experienced development because of globalization.

I mean, what are people in Africa supposed to do, go against their economic interests and turn against Russia and China because the West says they’re the villains even though they’re the ones building railways and bringing long needed development to the region? That’s not how things in real world work.

Like, no developed country moved a finger to help Iraq, Libya or other multiple places that were attacked on a military and/or geopolitical conflict, so why less developer places have any moral obligation to sacrifice themselves (even more!) for a proxy war like Ukraine? There aren’t saints or “pro-democracy” warriors anywhere, only realist realpolitik and yet it’s only one side (the westerners) pulling out this arrogant artistic performance as if they were more civilized than other “savage and immoral” countries lol. The king is naked now.

If the third world is so evil, not white enough and baddie anti-democratic like westerners usually complain, no reason to care whether Saudi Arabia and Iran are friends and both join BRICS together. And yet just some days ago you had Joe Biden kissing up the Saudis despite the fake moral speech he used in his campaign (journalist murderers?) and adopting a way more conveniently realist narrative in his trip about “not letting a vacuum of power in the region open to Russia and China”.

This Ukraine war concerns Russia and US (outside Eastern Europe of course), most other places just don’t want to take a position on it simply because Ukraine is not part of their national interest. If the Americans have lots of money to burn and Ukraine is so deeply important/strategic to them (we all know it isn’t  really though), they’re free to use that excuse to send them money and rise military budget since that’s what they always prefer. Other places aren’t obliged to have the same view though, especially when this war propels a food hunger crisis which will naturally affect them more and also stimulates this weird anti-globalization nationalist rhetoric that people here keep repeating.

The West was the main defender of free trade and globalization for years, especially during the Cold War and in the immediate following moment in the 90s/00s, no matter when it affected OTHERS sovereignty. Now it only takes ONE war happening on European soil instead of Middle Eastern for them to use this as a moral excuse to reverse all the global economic consensus of the last 40 years that they always were the big champions of? Sorry, not buying it at all. This new nationalist ideal and rhetoric won’t stick.

Free trade, the economic interests and the improvement of quality of life they represent  >>> National security, borders and military interests. That’s so obvious, but it only takes one war on their area to make everyone turn into a radical conservative.

[Storr]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

You are missing on what will probably at the end be the biggest proxy war ever.

Is Russia its own proxy? This would be like calling the Vietnam War (specifically the 1965-72 US intervention)a proxy war.

[jaichind]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

You are missing on what will probably at the end be the biggest proxy war ever.

Is Russia its own proxy?

I can make a good and cynical argument that the collective West is using Ukraine to bleed Russia and PRC/India is using Russia to erode the institutional geopolitical advantages of the collective West.  In the meantime Slav kills Slav.  Tragic.

[Storr]

More Ukrainian damage to infrastructure in the occupied south:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1551109418082861058?s=20&t=YJUftb...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1551149497941639168?s=20&t=LOZoA6BuoT-Op0...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

You are missing on what will probably at the end be the biggest proxy war ever.

Is Russia its own proxy?

I can make a good and cynical argument that the collective West is using Ukraine to bleed Russia and PRC/India is using Russia to erode the institutional geopolitical advantages of the collective West.  In the meantime Slav kills Slav.  Tragic.

India and China have indicated that the conflict is undesirable and don’t seem to have offered a huge amount of support to Russia beyond buying its energy on the cheap.

China would have preferred for Europe to be drawn away from the USA and they had investments in Ukraine which have been jeopardised. You can make a decent case for them winning something out of this conflict anyway (principally, greater influence over Russia), but I struggle to see a case for India using Russia as a proxy (beyond the short term, anyway). Russia is their chief arms supplier against Pakistan, something their politicians care more about  than the PRC-USA rivalry.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

You are missing on what will probably at the end be the biggest proxy war ever.

Is Russia its own proxy?

I can make a good and cynical argument that the collective West is using Ukraine to bleed Russia and PRC/India is using Russia to erode the institutional geopolitical advantages of the collective West.  In the meantime Slav kills Slav.  Tragic.

And the rest of us can make a better argument that this war is entirely Putin’s fault and how he openly stated this war is really about his belief that Ukraine’s sovereignty was a mistake so any attempt to blame “the West” for this is gaslighting in the face of the overwhelming facts that lay all the death and destruction of this war on the man in the Kremlin

[Storr]

More Ukrainian damage to infrastructure in the occupied south:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1551109418082861058?s=20&t=YJUftb...

[tweet snip]

Notably, Novobohdanivka is the key railway junction in Russian occupied Southern Ukraine. Green lines are railways, the red line is the front line/line of control:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551139431964344320?s=20&t=YJUftbs3H8S5XZ...

[Lord Halifax]

weird anti-globalization nationalist rhetoric that people here keep repeating.

Why do you consider it "weird"?

If the West can't rely on support from "the global South" when a hostile great power attacks and tries to annex a large country bordering the West, then it's only natural what we'll have to reverse as much outsourcing and become as independent of "the global South" as possible.

When reading your posts it's like you're incapable of viewing this conflict from a Western POV. That wars of conquest should be a thing of the past is such a basic element of a ruled based and stable world order that it's not something we can compromise on, and so many countries around the world being so cynical about this and only trying to exploit the situation for their own benefit has ofc been a major disappointment to Western countries, and something that'll influence the relationship between the West and "the rest" going forward.

The Nuremberg Tribunal stated that "war is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the belligerent states alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." 

It's not some trivial matter, but the very foundation of the post-WW2 international order, and just because Russia can use its veto right to keep the UN Security Council from intervening doesn't mean it's not a clear violation of the UN Charter. So there is naturally a disappointment that major stakeholders in the international community like India and Brazil see it as "the West's problem". If Russia gets away with annexing big parts of Ukraine after conquering it that's the end of the rule based world order and a return to unlimited great power competition which is going to have negative consequences for everyone given that great power wars with modern destructive capabilities and in such a highly complex, technologically advanced and interdependent world economy are incredibly dangerous and destructive. So letting Russia win isn't really an option, the consequences are just too scary, even scarier than the worst case scenario in the current conflict.

From our POV the whole "proxy war" narrative is incredible disingenuous and nonsensical (Ukraine is fighting to preserve their independence, not for America's interests), and the idea that Europeans are "colonies" or "pawns" of the US with no agency is deeply offensive to them. It's like you're completely blind to all this, and just think your worldview is objectively true. Most Westerners understand the criticism of Western hypocrisy (even if we think interventions to prevent genocide or ethnic cleansing like Libya, Kurdistan and Kosovo are in a different category), but despise the callousness of considering Russia's attempt at annexing and eradicating its neighbor as none of our business because it's far away and doesn't affect us directly.

[NOVA Green]

Good read from the WaPo earlier today regarding HIMARS supplied by the US.

Since a recent HIMARS strike on an enemy ammunition depot in Izyum, located southeast of Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv, Russian shelling has been “10 times less” than before, said Bohdan Dmytruk, a battalion commander in Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade.

In his battalion alone, Dmytruk said, the number of killed and injured has fallen dramatically compared with when his soldiers moved to this part of the front line three months ago. “We have about one guy suffer a concussion every week now. Before the HIMARS hit, it was about two to three a day because of the intensity of the shelling.”

Dmytruk and soldiers in the area attributed the drop-off in what was near-constant bombardment to the Russians’ need to conserve shells after the depot was destroyed, and their fear that firing their own artillery will alert the far more accurate and agile HIMARS to their positions.

The HIMARS have been used to destroy Russian command posts, ammunition depots and other logistics hubs. In the southern region of Kherson, an area occupied by Russia since the first days of the war, recent strikes have targeted Antonovskiy Bridge, a key supply route that connects the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia has a military base, to their troops in Kherson.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/24/ukriane-himars-russia-us/