Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

Maybe John Bolton will organize some coup in DNR and these guys won't get executed

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russians 'in Panic Mode' Over Strikes by U.S.-Supplied HIMARS: Ukraine

[NOVA Green]

So certain patterns of Ukrainian military artillery strikes using their new advanced weapons systems have previously received a bit of coverage here and elsewhere (Ammo Dumps, Fuel Dumps, and Command and Control centers).

Still, there is other information trickling out, without perhaps the dramatic visuals, about Ukrainian strikes on Anti-Air defense systems as well as Russian artillery batteries.

As Russian forces continue pounding civilian areas across a broad swath of the front line, Ukraine’s military has begun to punch back, striking bases and ammunition depots deep within occupied territory with the help of new, more powerful weapons provided by the West.

Early Wednesday morning, a fireball lit up the sky over Luhansk, the capital of a Russian-held province in eastern Ukraine. Russian media reported that Ukraine’s military had hit an antiaircraft battery.

That followed the destruction of six ammunition warehouses on Tuesday in Russian-controlled territory in southern Ukraine and the occupied Donetsk region in the east, according to Serhii Bratchuk, the spokesman for Odesa’s military administration.

This latest strategy by Ukrainian forces is still in its early days, and it is not yet clear whether it is having a significant impact on the battlefield, allowing them to disrupt Russia’s own artillery attacks and offensive operations. Some Ukrainian officials argue that the Russians are being forced to move supply hubs farther from the front, a claim that could not be verified.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/13/world/russia-ukraine-war-news


Here's another one from the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian forces struck an air-defense system in Russian-occupied territory in the east of the country late Tuesday, in the latest sign of how long-range artillery sent by the West is shifting the war’s calculus.

Russian state news agencies reported that Ukrainian forces had launched a strike on an air-defense system protecting the skies over Luhansk, the capital of one of two Russian-created statelets in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas area.

The strike is the latest in a series that Ukraine has conducted against high-value targets such as ammunition depots and command posts since multiple-launch rocket systems known as Himars began arriving from the U.S. last month.

“The armed forces of Ukraine launched a massive attack on the military air-defense unit, which ensures the security of the city of Luhansk,” said Andriy Marochko, a spokesman for the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic people’s militia.

The Luhansk People’s Republic later said nine missiles had been fired at Luhansk from American-made Himars.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-strike-on-russian-air-defense-unit-shows-impact-of-new-weapons-from-west-11657708988?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Zenger News obtained the footage Tuesday from the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade, an artillery formation of the Ukrainian Ground Forces.

The brigade said: "A new gesture of goodwill from a truck, a warehouse with ammunition and Nona-K artillery systems on the one hand, and soldiers from the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade together with the Intelligence Department of the headquarters of the Kharkiv troop group, air reconnaissance group and the 3rd Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, on the other.

"We hope that all participants enjoyed the meeting."

Zenger News contacted the Artillery Brigade for further comment, as well as the Russian Ministry of Defense, but had not received a reply at the time of writing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/watch-ukrainian-forces-wipe-out-russian-ammo-dump/ar-AAZxW9l?ocid=msedgdhphdr&cvid=12ecbb9560b34ebe8dc5474c3b32241d

[NOVA Green]

Lest anybody have very very short memories, there are still actually some Chechens floating around who are not big fans of the "Russian Colonizers" for some bizarre odd reason?!

There's a ton more to the article, and although it frequently reads as more of a "human interest story", those individuals quoted also including "maga" as describing their motivations for fighting in Ukraine against Russian soldiers as primarily rooted in their own personal experiences during the brutality unleashed by "mother Russia" against secessionist Chechnya.

Problem for Putin in many of his recent military activities appear to emulate more Stalinist style tactics, but in fact sometimes when you use "forced ethnic identity relocation" as a part of official government policy, inevitably subversion can and will pop up elsewhere.

I still strongly suspect that some of the massive (apparent) sabotage actions (But could be a strange coincident of "industrial safety incidents" way way well removed from the front lines are a direct result of what started within the Federation of Russia proper against "ethnic minority populations" deemed to be insufficiently loyal, combined with the fact that much of Russia's current military population come from more remote rural regions, that this was predominately tied to dissatisfaction with Russia's War in Ukraine.

The long table was set with sliced vegetables, bottles of Coca-Cola and juice, boiled lamb hearts, and kebabs cooked over a fire. Sitting at the head was the man of the hour — the birthday boy. His arms were crossed in front of his broad chest as he leaned back in his chair and observed the rare party.

Joining him at the table were soldiers with beards that matched his. Some were the sons of men he’d fought alongside in a different war that felt very much like this one. Now he was their commander.

He was presented a cake covered in chocolate frosting and decorated with the images of two flags — one for the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, the home to which he and his comrades hope to return one day, and one for Ukraine, the country they are fighting for now. What the two have in common is their enemy: Russia.

“There are very few of us — my people have been evicted and exterminated,” said the commander, who asked to be identified only by his call sign, Makhno. He leads a reconnaissance platoon that is part of Ukraine’s military intelligence service.

“The Russians are destroying our population,” he said. “How can we not fight them?”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/12/ukraine-chechen-fighters-russia/

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1547388175567491072?s=20&t=pSZds4g...


I will use any excuse to share this wonderful gem:

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1547388175567491072?s=20&t=pSZds4g...


I will use any excuse to share this wonderful gem:

Link to non-paywall article for anybody curious about the vehicle in question:

http://www.military-today.com/apc/btr_82.htm

[GoTfan]

I think fog of war is beginning to come into effect. The situation seems to me to be a bit unclear. Russia may be making gains, but as long as Ukraine can hit these supply depots with relative impunity, then I fail to see how this is unambiguously good news for Russia.

Of course, our resident dictator simp will disagree.

[Woody]

Third time a US citizen has been taken captive by Russians in Ukraine. This time it's 35 year old Suedi Murekezi, who according to his has family, did not participate in any fighting, and had lived in Kherson for 2 years.. he's currently being imprisoned in Donetsk.. which has the death penalty.

After having not heard from him for a month, Sele received a call from his brother in the early hours of 7 July, in which he said he was imprisoned in Donetsk, the biggest city in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic backed by Russia.

Murekezi also said he was in the same jail as Alexander Drueke and Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh, two American fighters captured by Russia last month.

Unlike Drueke and Huynh, Murekezi’s friends and family say he did not participate in any fighting in Ukraine and moved to the country about four years ago, settling in Kherson in 2020.

On the phone, Murekezi told his brother he had been falsely accused of participation in pro-Ukrainian protests, a charge that his brother and two close friends in Kherson denied.

“They are using him as a pawn for their own propaganda purposes,” said Sele Murekezi.

A US state department spokesperson said the agency was “aware of reports” of Murekezi’s detention but declined further comment, citing “privacy considerations”. Murekezi’s family said they were in daily contact with the state department about his situation.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/13/third-us-national-held-captive-by-pro-russian-separatists-in-ukraine

[CumbrianLefty]

In other news, North Korea becomes the 3rd UN member to recognize the so called DPR and LPR as independent states, along with Syria and Russia itself.

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-recognises-breakaway-russias-proxies-east-ukraine-2022-07-13/

OK, I don’t see how taking North goddamned Korea’s position as newsworthy can seriously be anything but Putin trolling.

I dunno, it has a certain amusement value.

(and being charitable, that may even have been a factor in posting it)

[jaichind]

Looks like Italy government might collapse. Another victim of the Ukraine war.  Namely war -> sanctions -> price surge -> USA rate hikes -> EUR falling -> more price pressures in EU -> need for rate hikes in Eurozone -> Italian debt funding crisis -> Italy government crisis. 

[bilaps]

Today, Russians hit Vinnitsa with cruise missiles and Ukrainians hit Donetsk again with artillery. Civilians dead on both sides.

Looks like Seversk is going to fall soon, Russians allegedly control big part of the town and there are fights on the outskirts of Soledar too

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Today, Russians hit Vinnitsa with cruise missiles and Ukrainians hit Donetsk again with artillery. Civilians dead on both sides.

Looks like Seversk is going to fall soon, Russians allegedly control big part of the town and there are fights on the outskirts of Soledar too

Interesting that the Russians aren't as able to defend against HIMARS but retain the ability to strike far past the front anyway.

[bilaps]

Today, Russians hit Vinnitsa with cruise missiles and Ukrainians hit Donetsk again with artillery. Civilians dead on both sides.

Looks like Seversk is going to fall soon, Russians allegedly control big part of the town and there are fights on the outskirts of Soledar too

Interesting that the Russians aren't as able to defend against HIMARS but retain the ability to strike far past the front anyway.

Ukrainians are imploring the strategy of not only launching HIMARS but combining them with other missiles like Tochka which overwhelm air defence capabilities. And cruise missiles of course have much bigger range and are fired from ships or strategic bombers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Today, Russians hit Vinnitsa with cruise missiles and Ukrainians hit Donetsk again with artillery. Civilians dead on both sides.

Looks like Seversk is going to fall soon, Russians allegedly control big part of the town and there are fights on the outskirts of Soledar too

Interesting that the Russians aren't as able to defend against HIMARS but retain the ability to strike far past the front anyway.

Ukrainians are imploring the strategy of not only launching HIMARS but combining them with other missiles like Tochka which overwhelm air defence capabilities. And cruise missiles of course have much bigger range and are fired from ships or strategic bombers.

You mean "exploring" the strategy? Because I could see them doing that.

[bilaps]

I mean they are doing just that.

[jaichind]

Looks like Italy government might collapse. Another victim of the Ukraine war.  Namely war -> sanctions -> price surge -> USA rate hikes -> EUR falling -> more price pressures in EU -> need for rate hikes in Eurozone -> Italian debt funding crisis -> Italy government crisis. 

Looks like Draghi says he will resign

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-leaves-ukraine-outgunned-russia-artillery-howitzers-himars-kyiv-ammunition-casualties-missiles-range-11657629663

"The West Leaves Ukraine Outgunned Against Russia"

Ukrainian officials say they need about 100 Himars. Meanwhile, a U.S. Senate source told me the tranche that included the first four Himars included fewer than 20 missiles per launcher, though a subsequent tranche included significantly more.

The ask gets bigger and bigger.

[Virginiá]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-leaves-ukraine-outgunned-russia-artillery-howitzers-himars-kyiv-ammunition-casualties-missiles-range-11657629663

"The West Leaves Ukraine Outgunned Against Russia"

Ukrainian officials say they need about 100 Himars. Meanwhile, a U.S. Senate source told me the tranche that included the first four Himars included fewer than 20 missiles per launcher, though a subsequent tranche included significantly more.

The ask gets bigger and bigger.

Can you blame them? They are being bombed day and night. Also, they asked for 300 a couple months ago, which wasn't really realistic, all things considered. 100 is, though, if we're OK taking from our own brigades. It's not like we haven't collectively exported that many to other countries as part of arms sales (or plan to in the near future).

[Stranger in a strange land]

In other news, North Korea becomes the 3rd UN member to recognize the so called DPR and LPR as independent states, along with Syria and Russia itself.

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-recognises-breakaway-russias-proxies-east-ukraine-2022-07-13/

OK, I don’t see how taking North goddamned Korea’s position as newsworthy can seriously be anything but Putin trolling.

I dunno, it has a certain amusement value.

(and being charitable, that may even have been a factor in posting it)

Ukraine has broken off diplomatic relations with North Korea: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-rozrivu-diplomatichnih-vidnosin-iz-korejskoyu-narodnoyu-demokratichnoyu-respublikoyu

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In other news, North Korea becomes the 3rd UN member to recognize the so called DPR and LPR as independent states, along with Syria and Russia itself.

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-recognises-breakaway-russias-proxies-east-ukraine-2022-07-13/

OK, I don’t see how taking North goddamned Korea’s position as newsworthy can seriously be anything but Putin trolling.

I dunno, it has a certain amusement value.

(and being charitable, that may even have been a factor in posting it)

Ukraine has broken off diplomatic relations with North Korea: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-rozrivu-diplomatichnih-vidnosin-iz-korejskoyu-narodnoyu-demokratichnoyu-respublikoyu

Well, that was inevitable.

[The Dowager Mod]

Russians are evil.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1547650791137165314

[Storr]

Russians are evil.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1547650791137165314

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1547533982002192387?s=20&t=lauUbp9rr_0Hx...
https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1547675693839814658?s=20&t=lauUbp9rr_0Hx...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1547695674921082881?s=20&t=198lGB2axRJm...

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1547697349224382464?s=20&t=198lGB2axRJm...

[Former President tack50]

Ukraine isn’t a dictatorship. This isn’t even a debatable claim. You’re just making sh**t up at this point.

Tbf a very disappointing fact I learned the other day is that Ukraine is not considered by The Economist and other such organizations as a democracy but rather as a "hybrid regime" along the likes of Mexico, Hong Kong or El Salvador.

Still easily beats Russia's "full authoritarianism" though.

[Person Man]

Ukraine isn’t a dictatorship. This isn’t even a debatable claim. You’re just making sh**t up at this point.

Tbf a very disappointing fact I learned the other day is that Ukraine is not considered by The Economist and other such organizations as a democracy but rather as a "hybrid regime" along the likes of Mexico, Hong Kong or El Salvador.

Still easily beats Russia's "full authoritarianism" though.

Florida is a "hybrid regime".