Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Russians "foraging in their gardens" to avoid increased costs of the "Sanctions Regime" per WSJ earlier today:

Spending the summer in a dacha in the lush countryside is a ritual for Russian families. This year, more people are gardening to offset the soaring cost of food. Food prices were up 19.1% in June compared with the same month in 2021, while prices for some products such as sugar, up 48% compared with a year earlier, and pasta, up 28% in the same period, have risen far more.

Close to half of Russians own a country house or a garden plot, according to a survey done this year by the Russian Center for Public Opinion and Market Research. About 39% of those surveyed said they planned to spend their summer vacation at a country home or garden plot, up 5% from last year. Most said they use their land to grow food.  

In Soviet times, the government allocated garden plots and summer houses called dachas to city dwellers. With the state economy failing to produce enough fruits and vegetables, the government encouraged people to plant gardens, said Jane Zavisca, associate professor of sociology at the University of Arizona.

Government officials have been encouraging gardening and farming. President Vladimir Putin signed a law recently that eases administrative rules related to community farms and allows the keeping of chickens and rabbits for personal use in garden plots. This spring, the deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vladislav Davankov, proposed to extend the country’s May holidays to give people more time to plant. The measure wasn’t taken up by the parliament. One auto factory did give farmland to furloughed workers to plant potatoes.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russians-turn-to-their-gardens-to-offset-sanctions-11658619876

Here's a clip from a classic '70s Britcom called" The Good Life", which might be somewhat similar to what Urban Russian dwellers are experiencing as they attempt to plant food.

[Storr]

The 28th Mechanized Brigade has been fighting and trying to advance towards Kherson city along the M-14 highway, which runs between Kherson and Mykolaiv.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1551326308507975680?s=20&t=DFeAybbq...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1551313105153654784?s=20&t=tgQ7QK...

[Storr]

More Ukrainian damage to infrastructure in the occupied south:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1551109418082861058?s=20&t=YJUftb...

[tweet snip]

Notably, Novobohdanivka is the key railway junction in Russian occupied Southern Ukraine. Green lines are railways, the red line is the front line/line of control:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551139431964344320?s=20&t=YJUftbs3H8S5XZ...

More photos of damage to the railway in Novobohdanivka. Bonus video of a Russian soldier taking photos of the damage and half heartedly measuring an impact crater in the roadbed with a measuring tape.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1551305522611109888?s=20&t=aoj4kadjVtc...

[NOVA Green]

Ouch... RIP.

Looks like this unit just recently snaked a couple Russian artillery systems a week back on the Kherson front.

Will be interesting to see more info into how and where he was targeted.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1547925195247128584?s=20&t=5ZwRaYJ2wbyiq...

From The Army Times in 2017 seems like this Ukrainian Brigade trained with some of the best, although I haven't yet been able to pull up Guliayev's military history and records, but would imagine this is perhaps a bit more of a loss to Ukraine than the loss of a random Russian Colonel during this war.

Soldiers of Ukraine's 1st Battalion, 28th Mechanized Infantry Brigade graduated from a 55-day training rotation with the Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine, at the Yavoriv Combat Training Center on the International Peacekeeping and Security Center, near Yavoriv, Ukraine April 4.

The 1-28th is the first of four Ukrainian battalions scheduled to train at the Yavoriv CTC with the JMTG-U this year. Training at Yavoriv focuses on individual skills like marksmanship and combat first aid, and builds to platoon and company level live-fire training.

https://www.army.mil/article/185454/1_28th_mechanized_infantry_completes_jmtg_u_rotation

[Red Velvet]

weird anti-globalization nationalist rhetoric that people here keep repeating.

Why do you consider it "weird"?

If the West can't rely on support from "the global South" when a hostile great power attacks and tries to annex a large country bordering the West, then it's only natural what we'll have to reverse as much outsourcing and become as independent of "the global South" as possible.

When reading your posts it's like you're incapable of viewing this conflict from a Western POV. That wars of conquest should be a thing of the past is such a basic element of a ruled based and stable world order that it's not something we can compromise on, and so many countries around the world being so cynical about this and only trying to exploit the situation for their own benefit has ofc been a major disappointment to Western countries, and something that'll influence the relationship between the West and "the rest" going forward.

The Nuremberg Tribunal stated that "war is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the belligerent states alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole."  

It's not some trivial matter, but the very foundation of the post-WW2 international order, and just because Russia can use its veto right to keep the UN Security Council from intervening doesn't mean it's not a clear violation of the UN Charter. So there is naturally a disappointment that major stakeholders in the international community like India and Brazil see it as "the West's problem". If Russia gets away with annexing big parts of Ukraine after conquering it that's the end of the rule based world order and a return to unlimited great power competition which is going to have negative consequences for everyone given that great power wars with modern destructive capabilities and in such a highly complex, technologically advanced and interdependent world economy are incredibly dangerous and destructive. So letting Russia win isn't really an option, the consequences are just too scary, even scarier than the worst case scenario in the current conflict.

From our POV the whole "proxy war" narrative is incredible disingenuous and nonsensical (Ukraine is fighting to preserve their independence, not for America's interests), and the idea that Europeans are "colonies" or "pawns" of the US with no agency is deeply offensive to them. It's like you're completely blind to all this, and just think your worldview is objectively true. Most Westerners understand the criticism of Western hypocrisy (even if we think interventions to prevent genocide or ethnic cleansing like Libya, Kurdistan and Kosovo are in a different category), but despise the callousness of considering Russia's attempt at annexing and eradicating its neighbor as none of our business because it's far away and doesn't affect us directly.

The reversal of globalization attempts by the West didn’t simply start suddenly with the Ukraine war though. It’s an ongoing theme coming from the 2010s due to the rise of China.

In US Obama mildly started it in his 2nd term, then Trump represented this on steroids and now Biden is keeping the exact same trend. Hard nationalism is basically a bipartisan consensus at this point over there.

Ukraine war is an opportunity for the West to justify their new nationalist mindset to their populations as the “moral” position but the goal is preventing the development and economic rise of developing nations and that includes a counteraction to China. Since these places benefited with unprecedented growth from it, the new “intelectual consensus” in the west defends creating a US-European bubble isolated from the world.

So why shouldn’t more places look at places that do show up at the door and invest on development, like China does? It makes absolute no strategic sense to position against Russia when the ones actively closing themselves from the world are the western powers.

It’s not cynicism, it’s how EVERY real alliance works everywhere, you give stuff in order to get stuff back in return. The western narrative here is basically that third world countries should shoot themselves on the foot by adopting a position to please their national security interests that aren’t their business just to that the west can keep ignoring those places, not presenting an alternative to invest in their development in return and then keep talking about them as if they were uneducated savages.

And I say this from a very rational mentality, not driven by anti-western emotions at all. In the past, like in the WWII context you mentioned, the West (better saying, the US) would actually do the hard work of offering major development investment in exchange of support in key strategic matters but that is much less of a reality nowadays, while the Chinese are literally present everywhere and keep increasing their presence.

Europe is full American colony because they can be pushed to do anything with the right amount of American pressure and the reaction from places like Germany (contradicting their own recent background with Merkel), begrudgingly rising their military spending is evidence of this. They’re an independent entity, sure, but one that behaves way more in a reactive manner for a reason.

In the end, I think the West got lazy and also too comfortably entitled for too long to actually believe their position and alliances kept come out of some natural superiority or something similar instead of mutual interest benefits. That’s the only way I can explain people seriously expecting third world countries to turn against Russia/China out of a “moral” discourse with literally no existence of alternative partnerships.

[NOVA Green]

So meanwhile, regardless on the "scrounging around on the playground" bit from various posters, including at least one or two "Pro-Russian" and "Social Media Influencers", it appears that "Team Russia", might be starting to experience a bit a "paddling" as HIMARs arrive on the front.

Mr. Phillips Obrien knows a thing or two about a thing or two on these matters.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1551198408228196353?s=20&t=k2fHhk...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1551198410014859265?s=20&t=k2fHhk...


https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1551198410014859265?s=20&t=k2fHhk...

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1550994831194865664?cxt=HHwWgICynZv...

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkRid89403375/status/1551444323970981888

[Woody]

UA also announced several assaults from RU forces on the Vuhlehirsk power plant again yesterday. RU forces are now boasting that they captured it a few hours ago.

Waiting for confirmation.

To the power plant's south, Russians seem to have entered the settlement of Novoluhanske:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1551451803052654592

[Woody]

FM Lavrov: We want regime change in Ukraine

According to the international news agency, this recent statement from Minister Lavrov is in contrast to earlier statements Russia has issued concerning its military action against Ukraine.

“We will definitely help the Ukrainian people to free themselves from the regime that is absolutely anti-people and anti-history,” the Al Jazeera report quoted Foreign Minister Lavrov.

At the time, he was speaking at a press conference with his Egyptian counterpart in Cairo.

He revealed that Russia’s objectives in Ukraine have expanded beyond the eastern Donbas region and asserted that “the Russian and Ukrainian people would live together in the future”.

Source: https://guardian.co.tt/news/russias-foreign-minister-we-want-regime-change-in-ukraine-6.2.1523559.8d416bcdc1

[CumbrianLefty]

That, at least, isn't exactly "news".

[Pericles]

Usually that's called annexation or conquest, it's not a mere regime change.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg  "Gazprom plans to halt one more Nord Stream turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from July 27, “taking into account the technical conditions of the engine,” the Russian company says in a statement."

EU gas prices shoot up 10% on news

[Woody]

Update on Vuhlehirsk power plant

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551536659526713344

[Woody]

Tug of war near Siversk

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551536647854034946?cxt=HHwWhMC49YuXlYgrAAAA

[Person Man]

So I saw this of my feed today:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/07/russian-nuclear-missile-submarine-seen-with-ukraine-invasion-z/

[Storr]

Ukraine has been clearly targeting bridges in the Kherson area over the past few days.
[tweet snip]

https://twitter.com/bhginee/status/1550829704869027841?s=20&t=MTinDJkYrJJV-5...

The Russians have already mostly completed a pontoon bridge alongside the M-14 highway bridge across the Inhulets River at Darivka, Kherson Oblast, which was targeted by Ukrainian strikes a few days ago.

https://twitter.com/serg_south/status/1551572883322949633?s=20&t=snOAS1iNFKa...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551584131556966400?s=20&t=wx9vxvLTphBFSW...

[NOVA Green]

The National Intelligence Council just declassified a document dated 6/15/22 regarding the Russian use of "filtration centers" in Ukraine.

This aligns with other reports that have emerged since the start of the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NICM-Unclassified-Assessment-on-Russian-Filtration-Camps-2022.pdf

[Storr]

Update on Vuhlehirsk power plant

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1551536659526713344

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1551632778927677448?s=20&t=ibMMEN5Z_W...

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1551641363149627392?s=20&t=hU-YGh3CCa...

[President Johnson]

Usually that's called annexation or conquest, it's not a mere regime change.

Yeah, Putin probably now aims to annex entire Donbas and the South into Russia and have a weak puppet state presiding over the remaining Ukranian territory. He de facto wants to wipe the country from the face of the earth, which is basically what Hitler wanted to do and why he must stopped at all cost.

[Storr]

This Slovak MiG-29 saga has been going on since the beginning of the war. Nad claimed they're worth €35 million each ($35.8 million), while the article below claims "Commercially-available, used MiG-29s have recently fetched between $5 million and $8 million, depending on their age and condition". So yeah, I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

https://www.airforcemag.com/polands-new-offer-mig-29s-in-exchange-for-buying-used-u-s-aircraft/

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1551639526430445571?s=20&t=ebWRnZ...

[Virginiá]

This Slovak MiG-29 saga has been going on since the beginning of the war. Nad claimed they're worth €35 million each ($35.8 million), while the article below claims "Commercially-available, used MiG-29s have recently fetched between $5 million and $8 million, depending on their age and condition". So yeah, I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

https://www.airforcemag.com/polands-new-offer-mig-29s-in-exchange-for-buying-used-u-s-aircraft/

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1551639526430445571?s=20&t=ebWRnZ3DTMbHRJY5OmgcDA

There was apparently some modernization done to the MiGs in 2005. That probably accounts for at least some of it. I don't have the article handy right now but if I recall, it was a program in excess of 100 million dollars.

Either way, that is kind of steep. If that level of investment is actually being considered by America/NATO, then it might as well go towards F-16s.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Territory is changing hands, but just not that much any more.

[The Dowager Mod]

I can think of a few to add to the list.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1551728643604246530

[Badger]

Politics reaches the International Math Olympiad.  I follow this since I did a lot of competitive math in high school and college.    Since this year's competition was in Norway Russia was not allowed to send a team and instead just sent 6 individuals.  If you add up the Russian scores they would have come in second to PRC as opposed to ROK.

A Russian girl, Galiia Sharafetdinova, scored a perfect 42 becoming the second woman ever to achieve this score ever in IMO.   But because she was Russian this feat was not even acknowledged when they had the contestants that scored a perfect score of 42 come up.  I think the PRC contestants who had a clean sweep of all 6 members getting a perfect score of 42 also did not come up to accept accolades due to Galiia Sharafetdinova not even acknowledged for her perfect score let alone for her to come up to the podium. 



There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity. 

Look, your simping for imperialistic dictators and clear demonstration you'd accept any level of war crimes and mass murder so long as it didn't affect your portfolio is already well established. But posting about a Russian girl winning a math competition in a thread about an invasion of a sovereign democratic country by an authoritarian regime seeking to literally exterminate the former, and further claiming with a straight face that the reason this monumental event (yawn) hasn't been widely publicized is because of "media bias", is to be fair really effing disconnected from reality even by your standards.

[Badger]

I guess I missed the news that America was at war with Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1550873976540479489?s=20&t=HLaVU0...

You are missing on what will probably at the end be the biggest proxy war ever.

Is Russia its own proxy?

I can make a good and cynical argument that the collective West is using Ukraine to bleed Russia and PRC/India is using Russia to erode the institutional geopolitical advantages of the collective West.  In the meantime Slav kills Slav.  Tragic.

No, you can't. You really can't.

And please don't try convincing us you give a flaming damn about any of the tens of thousands killed and far more forcibly removed due to Putin's invasion so long as your portfolio remains intact. You let that mask slip long ago.