January 6th legal proceedings and investigations megathread

[emailking]

Trump can't fire Smith. The AG can if s/he believes Smith is going far outside of the norms of what a reasonable prosecutor would do, and that decision has to be explained in writing to Congress.

[Badger]

Trump can't fire Smith. The AG can if s/he believes Smith is going far outside of the norms of what a reasonable prosecutor would do, and that decision has to be explained in writing to Congress.

It will absolutely happen. At the end of the day the AG Trump picks has complete discretion, and Trump has complete discretion to make the AG do it, written explanation to Congress notwithstanding.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think the only avenue right now might be for prosecutors in Michigan, Wisconsin, and/or Arizona to also bring charges that Trump can’t pardon himself from and aren’t tainted by the idiocy of the GA prosecution team.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/AWeissmann_/status/1762990979592638775

There’s no way SCOTUS issues a ruling by May 13 given how they’ve acted thus far.  Closer to July 13 is much more likely.

[emailking]

Well earlier you said because of how they've acted that they weren't interested in this, then they took the case. I think it's unpredictable, at least right now. Maybe we'll get a better idea from orals.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Well earlier you said because of how they've acted that they weren't interested in this, then they took the case. I think it's unpredictable, at least right now. Maybe we'll get a better idea from orals.

Yeah I was definitely wrong about that.
I was shocked they took this case, and it’s really caused me to reassess a lot of what I had assumed about this court’s relationship to Trump. 
I guess maaaaaybe there were just 4 votes for cert and the majority still wants to move on this quickly, but then why schedule oral arguments two months out, especially considering how quickly they heard arguments in the ballot disqualification case?

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump can't fire Smith. The AG can if s/he believes Smith is going far outside of the norms of what a reasonable prosecutor would do, and that decision has to be explained in writing to Congress.

It will absolutely happen. At the end of the day the AG Trump picks has complete discretion, and Trump has complete discretion to make the AG do it, written explanation to Congress notwithstanding.

Yup. So basically Nixon's playbook from the Saturday Night massacre when Archibald Cox was fired in 1973.

[emailking]

Well earlier you said because of how they've acted that they weren't interested in this, then they took the case. I think it's unpredictable, at least right now. Maybe we'll get a better idea from orals.

Yeah I was definitely wrong about that.
I was shocked they took this case, and it’s really caused me to reassess a lot of what I had assumed about this court’s relationship to Trump.  
I guess maaaaaybe there were just 4 votes for cert and the majority still wants to move on this quickly, but then why schedule oral arguments two months out, especially considering how quickly they heard arguments in the ballot disqualification case?

Yeah I think, it's a bad sign, especially since (apparently) there weren't 5 votes to remove the stay and let the trial prep continue while they hear this, but maybe it's some kind of back room dealing, who knows.

[emailking]

Note: I haven't seen it mentioned and it also slipped by me, but because they are only taking up the issue of Presidential immunity for official acts while President, it means they are denying to hear Trump's double jeopardy claim (from the impeachment acquittal). So that's out.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/AWeissmann_/status/1762990979592638775

Such a f**ked up justice system. You can try to overthrow the government and get away with it, if you’re well known and powerful.

[heatcharger]

I think the only avenue right now might be for prosecutors in Michigan, Wisconsin, and/or Arizona to also bring charges that Trump can’t pardon himself from and aren’t tainted by the idiocy of the GA prosecution team.

Damn, lawfare is the only way to take down TRUMP huh? Not good.

[Yelnoc]

If SCOTUS takes 2 months to issue their ruling, say on Thursday, June 20th, then the 88 day period would put the start of jury selection at September 16th. Then following Weissman's timeline, we would have the trial actually start on October 7, go to the jury December 9th, with a verdict by December 13th.

I think Judge Canon is a big wild card, since she could push all of this back by scheduling the Florida trial for late August. Does anyone know how long that trial is projected to take? I think the big question is whether a verdict could be delivered in the DC case before January 20th, 2025.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If, and I mean if, the SCOTUS sides with Trump, they will have essentially given him or any other president a clear path to a dictatorship.

[wbrocks67]

People keep referring to the 88 day thing, but I believe Chutkan said somewhere that she would be open to shortening that time period given the situation. Frankly, there's no reason why Trump's lawyers can't be using that time *now* to prepare while waiting for the SC.

Also I see some people keep having the trial be like 2 months long... that seems seriously excessive. Your regular trials are like ~3 days long. High profile ones tend to be maybe a few weeks, if that. There's no way it'll be even over a month long.

[emailking]

All the estimates I heard yesterday were 3 months (supposedly from Smith). Before that I only remember hearing 2 months.

[brucejoel99]

People keep referring to the 88 day thing, but I believe Chutkan said somewhere that she would be open to shortening that time period given the situation. Frankly, there's no reason why Trump's lawyers can't be using that time *now* to prepare while waiting for the SC.

She suggested shortening the time-frame if egregious gag-order violations called for it, so otherwise, the judge explicitly promising you that you don't have to in the meantime is a pretty good reason!

https://twitter.com/rparloff/status/1763201303654662441

Also I see some people keep having the trial be like 2 months long... that seems seriously excessive. Your regular trials are like ~3 days long. High profile ones tend to be maybe a few weeks, if that. There's no way it'll be even over a month long.

The Special Counsel has already publicly published his estimate that presenting the prosecution's case alone will take 4-6 weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Special Counsel has already publicly published his estimate that presenting the prosecution's case alone will take 4-6 weeks.

I've seen some speculation on Twitter that Smith might narrow his case to make it quicker to present, if it looks like the timing is close.

[brucejoel99]

The Special Counsel has already publicly published his estimate that presenting the prosecution's case alone will take 4-6 weeks.

I've seen some speculation on Twitter that Smith might narrow his case to make it quicker to present, if it looks like the timing is close.

"Slim to win"

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump can't fire Smith. The AG can if s/he believes Smith is going far outside of the norms of what a reasonable prosecutor would do, and that decision has to be explained in writing to Congress.

It will absolutely happen. At the end of the day the AG Trump picks has complete discretion, and Trump has complete discretion to make the AG do it, written explanation to Congress notwithstanding.

Yup. So basically Nixon's playbook from the Saturday Night massacre when Archibald Cox was fired in 1973.

But with a pro-fascism GOP, instead of a patriotic one.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The AG in a new Trump admin will serve as Trump's personal attorney and he will be loyal to Trump first before anything else.

[Hollywood]

People keep referring to the 88 day thing, but I believe Chutkan said somewhere that she would be open to shortening that time period given the situation. Frankly, there's no reason why Trump's lawyers can't be using that time *now* to prepare while waiting for the SC.

She suggested shortening the time-frame if egregious gag-order violations called for it, so otherwise, the judge explicitly promising you that you don't have to in the meantime is a pretty good reason!

https://twitter.com/rparloff/status/1763201303654662441

Also I see some people keep having the trial be like 2 months long... that seems seriously excessive. Your regular trials are like ~3 days long. High profile ones tend to be maybe a few weeks, if that. There's no way it'll be even over a month long.

The Special Counsel has already publicly published his estimate that presenting the prosecution's case alone will take 4-6 weeks.

I agree with the Special Counsel.  An average Federal Criminal Case takes between 6-12 Months, but the issues in Trump's case on appeal could have carried it for 2-3 years.  The issues in this case require a lot of time for the Supreme Court, so I don't see a rationale for the Appellate Court to speed it up that fast. 

[emailking]

I agree with the Special Counsel.  An average Federal Criminal Case takes between 6-12 Months, but the issues in Trump's case on appeal could have carried it for 2-3 years.  The issues in this case require a lot of time for the Supreme Court, so I don't see a rationale for the Appellate Court to speed it up that fast.  

I think some things are getting confused.

Smith thinks the trial could take 3 months. He also wants the trial to start as soon as possible. He wanted these appeals to be done with months ago.

The trial judge promised the defense 7 months to prepare minus any time when she doesn't have the mandate (like right now) when the defense is required to have no burden to prepare for trial or respond to motions. There's 88 days left on that 7 months.

The appellate court did speed things up quite a bit, taking care of Trump's bogus argument in about a month. But now the Supreme Court apparently wants to take things at a slower pace.

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins he needs to fire Jack Smith, and self pardon to ensure another witch hunt does not resume after he leaves office. And as extra salt in the wound because Dems played games with this, he should also pardon the Jan 6 rioters and hold a memorial for Ashil Babbitt.

You are an enemy of America.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Trump wins he needs to fire Jack Smith, and self pardon to ensure another witch hunt does not resume after he leaves office. And as extra salt in the wound because Dems played games with this, he should also pardon the Jan 6 rioters and hold a memorial for Ashil Babbitt.

You are an enemy of America.

Well, I wouldn't necessarily go that far, but his post above does indicate that he doesn't care about theft of critical national security documents or defiance of grand jury subpoenas, as Smith is also prosecuting the docs case.

[emailking]

Trump’s plan to use Judge Cannon to block Judge Chutkan and avoid trial

Former President Donald Trump’s lawyers see a major opportunity this week to use his criminal document mishandling case in Florida to create an impasse on his calendar for the two federal judges overseeing his major criminal cases.

Juggling his campaign and court calendar and playing his cases off one another is a key part of Trump’s legal strategy. The ultimate goal, his team has said openly, is to prevent Trump from being tried in federal court before voters cast their ballots in the 2024 general election.

A primary aim for Trump’s legal team, according to people familiar with the strategy, is to put the judge in DC overseeing the 2020 federal election obstruction case, Tanya Chutkan, in a position where she can’t start a trial before Election Day.

“Meaning, ice her,” said a person familiar with Trump’s trial schedule strategy. “Making it impossible for her to jam a trial down before the election, by things that are out of her control.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/politics/trump-judge-cannon-chutkan-trial-plan/index.html