This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Battista Minola 1616]

It was indeed a poor Tory result - and partly caused by local party dissatisfaction with the candidate - but the subsequent trajectory of the seat suggests that wasn't the only factor.

I think they could have taken Tynemouth in 2010 (right local-enough candidate (not Michael McIntyre!) and being realistic about their chances in Sunderland Central), but it absolutely would have been regained by Labour in either 2015 or 2017 and held last time.

From Cullercoats to Whitley Bay, I'd like to think that the mystical influence of Mark Knopfler singlehandedly saved Tynemouth for Labour.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1589714935767891968

[Torrain]

Williamson's former deputy chief whip says he once paid an MP's debt, waving the cheque beneath her nose and bragging about how he now "owned" them.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1590043429656223744

[CumbrianLefty]

And he duly went a few hours later, still denying that he actually did anything wrong.

[Torrain]

Not to be outdone by Gavin Williamson, MoJ civil servants are alleging that Dominic Raab created a hostile environment, in a Pippa Crerar piece in the Guardian:

Several sources told the Guardian that about 15 staff from the justice secretary’s private office were taken into a room where departmental chiefs acknowledged they may be anxious about his behaviour and gave them the option of moving roles.

Some of the civil servants were said to have been in tears during the meeting and several subsequently decided to move to other positions in the department, with one thought to be considering leaving entirely, although sources suggested a couple of staff had since returned.

It is also understood that Antonia Romeo, the MoJ permanent secretary, had to speak to Raab when he returned to the department to warn him that he must treat staff professionally and with respect amid unhappiness about his return. One source, who was not in the room at the time, claimed she had “read him the riot act”.

The Guardian has spoken to multiple sources in the MoJ who claimed that Raab, who first held the post between September 2021 and September 2022, when he was sacked by Liz Truss, had created a “culture of fear” in the department.

[Torrain]

Two more Tory MPs standing down:

• George Eustace - Environment Secretary under Johnson. Sitting on a 8,700 vote majority (could be risky), and not invited back to cabinet by either Truss or Sunak after his 2 year stint under Johnson. Probably discouraged that there's anywhere left for his career to go.
• Edward Timpson - MP for Eddisbury since 2019, previously MP for Crewe (from a by-election win in 2008, to losing the seat to Labour by 48 votes in 2017), currently sitting on an 18,000 vote majority. Son of noted locksmith (and Timpson brand owner) Sir John Timpson.

ConHome seem to be keeping a running tally of retirements here. We're up to 17 so far.

[TheTide]

Two more Tory MPs standing down:

• George Eustace - Environment Secretary under Johnson. Sitting on a 8,700 vote majority (could be risky), and not invited back to cabinet by either Truss or Sunak after his 2 year stint under Johnson. Probably discouraged that there's anywhere left for his career to go.
• Edward Timpson - MP for Eddisbury since 2019, previously MP for Crewe (from a by-election win in 2008, to losing the seat to Labour by 48 votes in 2017), currently sitting on an 18,000 vote majority. Son of noted locksmith (and Timpson brand owner) Sir John Timpson.

ConHome seem to be keeping a running tally of retirements here. We're up to 17 so far.

Timpson's retirement arguably has some symbolic significance given that the Crewe & Nantwich by-election indicated the beginning of the end of the Brown government.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was, remarkably, the first Tory gain from Labour in a Westminster byelection for 30 years.

[Torrain]

It's incredible that the Tories were just that far behind in the Blair years that they could lose by-elections in seats like Ipswich and Romsey of all places. It's been a rough few parliaments for Labour, by-election wise (see 2021), but they've still had some bright spots (gains in Corby, Wakefield, and holds in places like Batley and Spen).

Makes you wonder - how long will Hartlepool stand as the most recent Tory by-election gain? Could be months, or it could be decades, given past precedence...

[All Along The Watchtower]

Makes you wonder - how long will Hartlepool stand as the most recent Tory by-election gain? Could be months, or it could be decades, given past precedence...

Speaking of, I reckon they would've picked up Hartlepool in 2019 had it not been for the f--king Brexit Party.

[Torrain]

Makes you wonder - how long will Hartlepool stand as the most recent Tory by-election gain? Could be months, or it could be decades, given past precedence...

Speaking of, I reckon they would've picked up Hartlepool in 2019 had it not been for the f--king Brexit Party.

There’s ongoing discussion about whether the Brexit Party meaningfully benefited the Tories in 2019, or whether they actually split the vote in a number of marginals. Certainly, the presence of the Brexit Party on the ballot appears have actually saved prominent Labour MPs like Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper - who’d have lost a straight match-up with the Tories.

[Torrain]

Deselection watch in Hastings and Rye.

The old seat of former Home Secretary Amber Rudd, the current MP is Sally-Ann Hart, who improved Rudd's 300 vote majority to a 4,000 majority in 2019.

Her local party has failed to reselect her, and it looks like they're seeking another candidate.

Notably, the new pressure group Conservative Democratic Organisation (spearheaded by Johnsonian acolytes Lord Cruddas and Priti Patel), have thrown their weight behind the deselection, in their quest to "restore power to local party groups" - which is sort of a trojan horse to try and give the local parties more of a say in leadership elections, and part of a broader pro-Johnson effort - it's all a bit arcane and weird.

Understanding is that the selection now goes to the broader membership in the constituency. Hart isn't excluded from running as a candidate in selection, but that opposition from the local party would basically leave her without an effective chance of winning.

Speculation from various quarters (but, as is always the case with selection fights, led by Michael Crick), is that CCHQ will probably put some pressure on them to get behind Hart, although it's not clear if/when that will happen.

If anyone has a sense why Hart has fallen out with the local party, would be very interested to hear. She's said some controversial things about religious minorities, and adults with learning difficulties, but nothing as brazen as the sort of thing Lee Anderson or Jonathan Gullis gets away with.

[Torrain]

Two more retirements:

No.1: Kinda expected, given the persistent peerage rumours - but noteworthy nonetheless.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1623761334276947970

No.2: far more marginal - definitely a headache for the local party.
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1623761174595612672

Brings us to 19 retirements.

[Torrain]

Two more retirements, bringing us to 21:

Sir Paul Beresford (MP for Mole Valley). Part-time dentist, who went (very slightly) viral in 2018 when he repeatedly asked an SNP MP with an accent to repeat himself, because Beresford couldn’t understand him. Mole Valley is typically pretty safe, but his 24k  majority was halved to 12k over the Lib Dems in 2019 - so unclear if he’s worried about losing, or just not interested in being in opposition.

Stephen McPartland (MP for Stevenage). Seems to be a somewhat independent voice - definitely a little offbeat (the man cited the elevation of John Major, as a working class man, as one of the party’s crowning achievements in his resignation letter). Stevenage is one of those seats that swings when the government changes (he picked it up in 2010, won a 8.5k Tory majority in 2019, and a 3.3k majority in 2017, which would be very, very dicey on current polling).

[Cassius]

Beresford will be seventy-eight when the next election rolls round (assuming the parliament lasts a full term) so it's not surprising that he's chosen to retire, especially given how bad the situation is for the party. As for McPartland, he was (as far as I'm aware) the only Tory to vote against the strikes bill earlier this year, so his decision to call it a day is not surprising either.

In other news, "a leading Conservative business figure" (whom nobody has ever heard of and who founded a PR firm, which I'm not sure qualifies him for the title of "leading business figure"), Iain Anderson, has quit the party due to the transgender issue (amongst other reasons), citing the government's decision to block that Scottish gender recognition law and claiming "it's not the party it used to be". Which is... interesting, because apparently he joined the party forty years ago and if that's the case I'm not sure what kind of party he thought he was joining in 1983.

[Blair]

It’s going to be very interesting- Brexit and the rapid nature of 2019 election meant a lot of people stood who would have naturally retired in a 2022 election, but equally there’s a strong similarity to the Labour 2009/10 trend of of MPs in their 60s and 70s who clearly don’t want to do opposition retiring and those who held once marginal seats packing it in.

Much like 2010 I suspect we’ll get a lot who run thinking only they can win and who then get turfed out.

[TheTide]

Beresford will be seventy-eight when the next election rolls round (assuming the parliament lasts a full term) so it's not surprising that he's chosen to retire, especially given how bad the situation is for the party. As for McPartland, he was (as far as I'm aware) the only Tory to vote against the strikes bill earlier this year, so his decision to call it a day is not surprising either.

In other news, "a leading Conservative business figure" (whom nobody has ever heard of and who founded a PR firm, which I'm not sure qualifies him for the title of "leading business figure"), Iain Anderson, has quit the party due to the transgender issue (amongst other reasons), citing the government's decision to block that Scottish gender recognition law and claiming "it's not the party it used to be". Which is... interesting, because apparently he joined the party forty years ago and if that's the case I'm not sure what kind of party he thought he was joining in 1983.

Whilst I have some sympathy, the Iain Anderson thing does have a feel of what often happens when there is a government with a strong whiff of death about it. In 2010 it was a national media headline when a Labour candidate in a completely unwinnable seat (Norfolk North West?) called Gordon Brown the 'worst PM ever' (by which of course he almost certainly meant the worst PM he knew anything about).

[Wiswylfen]

Beresford will be seventy-eight when the next election rolls round (assuming the parliament lasts a full term) so it's not surprising that he's chosen to retire, especially given how bad the situation is for the party. As for McPartland, he was (as far as I'm aware) the only Tory to vote against the strikes bill earlier this year, so his decision to call it a day is not surprising either.

In other news, "a leading Conservative business figure" (whom nobody has ever heard of and who founded a PR firm, which I'm not sure qualifies him for the title of "leading business figure"), Iain Anderson, has quit the party due to the transgender issue (amongst other reasons), citing the government's decision to block that Scottish gender recognition law and claiming "it's not the party it used to be". Which is... interesting, because apparently he joined the party forty years ago and if that's the case I'm not sure what kind of party he thought he was joining in 1983.

Whilst I have some sympathy, the Iain Anderson thing does have a feel of what often happens when there is a government with a strong whiff of death about it. In 2010 it was a national media headline when a Labour candidate in a completely unwinnable seat (Norfolk North West?) called Gordon Brown the 'worst PM ever' (by which of course he almost certainly meant the worst PM he knew anything about).

Though we did win it in 1997.

[EastAnglianLefty]

We did, but it was completely unwinnable in 2010 - to the extent that the local CLP had been trying to deselect the candidate for being useless for about 2 years at that point, but had been ignored on the assumption that it didn't make any difference anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

They really were a complete crank and no mistake

[Conservatopia]

The revenge of the membership on the wets who installed Rishi over our voted choices of Boris and Liz continues.

Damian Green fails to be selected as a candidate for Weald of Kent. Good riddance.

Regardless of the overall result of the 2024 election (I predict a 2005-sized Labour majority), it will continue the trend from 2019 where wet moderates (like Claire Perry) are replaced by populist right-wingers (like Danny Kruger).

The Cameron days are long gone

[YL]

The revenge of the membership on the wets who installed Rishi over our voted choices of Boris and Liz continues.

Damian Green fails to be selected as a candidate for Weald of Kent. Good riddance.

Regardless of the overall result of the 2024 election (I predict a 2005-sized Labour majority), it will continue the trend from 2019 where wet moderates (like Claire Perry) are replaced by populist right-wingers (like Danny Kruger).

The Cameron days are long gone

Can Green still go for the revised Ashford?

[Torrain]

Reversing Cameron’s reforms feels like an express route to reliving the 8 years in the bleak, sub-200 seat wilderness that preceded his leadership. Nothing prolongs time in opposition like a purity spiral.

I just mean - vacating the centre-ground, as Labour races to claim it seems… tactically flawed.

[MaxQue]

The revenge of the membership on the wets who installed Rishi over our voted choices of Boris and Liz continues.

Damian Green fails to be selected as a candidate for Weald of Kent. Good riddance.

Regardless of the overall result of the 2024 election (I predict a 2005-sized Labour majority), it will continue the trend from 2019 where wet moderates (like Claire Perry) are replaced by populist right-wingers (like Danny Kruger).

The Cameron days are long gone

Again, this is based on spin, not a reality, as Green was certainly not victim of a revenge from the membership, as he wasn't yet at that step.

The only thing that happened is the Weald of Kent executive deciding to do a full selection instead of anointing Green as their candidate. Green is still totally free to run for it in front of the members.

[Wiswylfen]

I think Truss herself is quite demonstrative of how little power the membership has when CCHQ and the party leadership want it to be so.