This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Wiswylfen]

ConservativeHome’a monthly poll of Tory party members approval of the cabinet was released today.



Ben Wallace continues to dominate, as he has done since February (no prizes for guessing what triggered his rise). Nadhim Zahawi continues to bounce between second and third place - definitely a dark horse and probable Great Office candidate under the next leader.

Truss has recovered a bit after her stumbles in Moscow dented her popularity earlier in the year - still feels like a frontrunner.

Patel has recovered, from a negative approval rate, and bottom of the list last month, to the middle of the pack. Whatever you think of the Rwanda policy (not a fan myself), it’s obviously working for Patel amongst a small but key demographic.

Boris and Sunak on the other hand have plunged to historic lows - a far cry from ‘20 and ‘21. Sunak now seems entirely implausible as a successor.

ConservativeHome does not do a monthly poll of party members. It does a monthly survey of, mostly, councillors with tree emojis in their Twitter bios who think they're important enough to join a self-selected panel. This is a vital difference but not one that stops journalists from spreading it as though it's the same thing.

[Continential]

ConservativeHome’a monthly poll of Tory party members approval of the cabinet was released today.



Ben Wallace continues to dominate, as he has done since February (no prizes for guessing what triggered his rise). Nadhim Zahawi continues to bounce between second and third place - definitely a dark horse and probable Great Office candidate under the next leader.

Truss has recovered a bit after her stumbles in Moscow dented her popularity earlier in the year - still feels like a frontrunner.

Patel has recovered, from a negative approval rate, and bottom of the list last month, to the middle of the pack. Whatever you think of the Rwanda policy (not a fan myself), it’s obviously working for Patel amongst a small but key demographic.

Boris and Sunak on the other hand have plunged to historic lows - a far cry from ‘20 and ‘21. Sunak now seems entirely implausible as a successor.

ConservativeHome does not do a monthly poll of party members. It does a monthly survey of, mostly, councillors with tree emojis in their Twitter bios who think they're important enough to join a self-selected panel. This is a vital difference but not one that stops journalists from spreading it as though it's the same thing.

So voteuk users?

[CumbrianLefty]

Heh, quite a few of them probably think Vote UK is a dangerous subversive left wing site.

[CumbrianLefty]

A quick cabinet reshuffle now being touted as an option for BoJo if this week's results are indeed as bad as some Tories are now genuinely starting to fear.

But who to promote who is both a) actually good and b) sufficiently loyal?

[Torrain]

A quick cabinet reshuffle now being touted as an option for BoJo if this week's results are indeed as bad as some Tories are now genuinely starting to fear.

But who to promote who is both a) actually good and b) sufficiently loyal?

Following up your February “reset reshuffle” with a May “reassurance reshuffle” feels increasingly like reshuffling rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
 

[Blair]

A quick cabinet reshuffle now being touted as an option for BoJo if this week's results are indeed as bad as some Tories are now genuinely starting to fear.

But who to promote who is both a) actually good and b) sufficiently loyal?

Grant Shapps! I guess Javid- if he hadn’t had his non-dom story.

I still contend if Johnson wants to survive and just spend, spend spend just make Gove Chancellor- would be chaotic for sure though.

I spent a while trying to work out who would even be on the shortlist for Chancellor- Truss, Gove and er who else?  I saw it briefed the advantage to Truss is that it damages her as a leadership contender but well they need to be careful otherwise the final round might well be Rees Mogg v Tugendhat at this rate.

I can see how a few old cabinet members might be bought back (Jenrick and Hancock for example) but the problem is that it’s hard to see who could fill the great offices without being a disloyal sh**t.

[Blair]

We’re reaching the late era Blair and Brown stage where people only do a job for 6 months and you can’t actually remember who has been sacked before and for what, and you end up bringing people back who you sacked for a very good reason.

It’s very funny to think Brown was Chancellor for a decade, Straw at FCO for 5 years.

[CumbrianLefty]

Javid would be a front runner to replace Sunak if he hadn't walked out on the job once before.

[Torrain]

New 1922 Committee Executive has been announced:

Incoming Executive:

Chair: Sir Graham Brady
Joint Vice-Chair

• William Wragg
• Nusrat Ghani

Joint Executive secretaries

• Bob Blackman
• Gary Sambrook

Executive:

• Aaron Bell
• Miriam Cates
• Jo Gideon
• Richard Graham
• Chris Green
• Robert Halfon
• Sally-Ann Hart
• Andrew Jones
• Tom Randall
• David Simmonds
• John Stevenson
• Martin Vickers

Outgoing Executive:

Chair: Sir Graham Brady
Joint Vice-Chair

• William Wragg
• Nusrat Ghani

Joint Executive secretaries

• Bob Blackman
• Gary Sambrook

Treasurer: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown

Executive members:

• Karl McCartney
• Sir Bernard Jenkin
• Jason McCartney
• Nicola Richards
• Sheryll Murray
• Richard Holden
• Martin Vickers

[Torrain]

The Conservative Home cabinet poll for October has been released. Wallace still reigns supreme, but Braverman sits near the bottom of the pack (below anonymous ministers like Alister Jack), and the noted moderates like Andrew Mitchell seem to fare poorly. Badenoch remains strikingly popular - although apparently James Cleverly has established a following too.

Gavin Williamson is (perhaps unsurprisingly) highly unpopular.

[Cassius]

Note of course that the three most popular ministers are also the three who hold the non-domestic policy focused portfolios (well, International Trade is a bit of both but also an area that the media and most voters don’t pay much attention to).

[Torrain]

In party infighting news a formal complaint has been levelled against Gavin Williamson at CCHQby Wendy Morton (Truss’ ineffective Chief Whip):

Forget Suella Braverman for a moment. Rishi Sunak’s political judgment is being questioned over another senior appointment to his team. Tortoise has learned that a formal complaint has been submitted to the Conservative Party regarding “threatening” behaviour by cabinet minister Gavin Williamson.

Wendy Morton, the former chief whip under Liz Truss, has passed on details of “vile and threatening messages” she received in the days before the former prime minister resigned, sources say. One MP said the submission included screen grabs of messages sent by Williamson, himself a former chief whip. He said there was “quite a bit of evidence”, and that a number of MPs were willing to back Morton up. Another suggested there was a misogynistic undertone to the content, with messages sent over the course of several weeks.

Williamson played a key role in Sunak’s leadership campaign during the summer, when fellow Conservative MPs alleged he was “lending votes” to tactically improve Sunak’s chances. He was made minister without portfolio in Sunak’s first Cabinet.

A former minister who had previously backed Sunak said his appointment of Williamson was “absurd” and had “surprised lots of people”. Williamson has been previously sacked twice: once as defence secretary, following a Cabinet Office investigation which concluded he had leaked confidential information about Huawei despite his denial, then as education secretary following the pandemic exams debacle. Morton confirmed she has submitted a complaint, but declined to comment further. A Conservative Party spokesperson said the party had “a robust complaints process in place.” A friend of Williamson, who has yet to be made aware of the complaint, said he “strongly refutes these allegations” and is “very happy to share all communications with the former chief whip with CCHQ if needed”.

[CumbrianLefty]

Williamson must have so much dirt on his fellow Tories, mustn't he

[Torrain]

Williamson must have so much dirt on his fellow Tories, mustn't he

It certainly feels that way. Hard to interpret the rather surreal scenario of “chief whip credibly intimidated by backbencher” without it.

[Cassius]

On the other hand, Morton does fit the profile of ‘vacuous Tory woman’ a tad too well. She even went to the Open University.

[CumbrianLefty]

She even went to the Open University.

To be clear, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

[Torrain]

The Morton-Williamson WhatsApps that triggered the formal complaint have been leaked to the Times:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1588945243336232960

Edit at 20.24: No.10 spokesman refuses to confirm whether Sunak has confidence in Williamson, per Gabriel Pogrund at the Times. 

Edit on Sunday: Oliver Dowden says Sunak has confidence in Williamson, and lots of people had problems with Morton.

[Pericles]

Wait Gavin Williamson was whining about not attending the Queen's funeral? What a hilariously petty drama this is. It does also remind us how Wendy Morton was not a good Chief Whip.

[CumbrianLefty]

Wait Gavin Williamson was whining about not attending the Queen's funeral? What a hilariously petty drama this is

Never great optics when you make Nadine Dorries look good in comparison.

[Wiswylfen]

[Torrain]

Two more female MPs (anonymous) have lodged complaints against Williamson, per the Times. One says Williamson raised aspects of her personal life to try and force her to drop her position on a policy. Williamson allies say he raised the issue in a “pastoral” context - a word that’s never been used to describe a man who poses with horse whips and cultivated a reputation as “master of the dark arts”.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was indeed a poor Tory result - and partly caused by local party dissatisfaction with the candidate - but the subsequent trajectory of the seat suggests that wasn't the only factor.

[Continential]

She even went to the Open University.

To be clear, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

What do people think of the Open University?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it was one of PM Wilson's most inspired ideas, and has more than proved its worth since.

[Wiswylfen]

It was indeed a poor Tory result - and partly caused by local party dissatisfaction with the candidate - but the subsequent trajectory of the seat suggests that wasn't the only factor.

I think they could have taken Tynemouth in 2010 (right local-enough candidate (not Michael McIntyre!) and being realistic about their chances in Sunderland Central), but it absolutely would have been regained by Labour in either 2015 or 2017 and held last time.