This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[CumbrianLefty]

I now wonder what the Lib Dem version of this would be titled

"This Once Relevant Party Of Ours"?

[CumbrianLefty]

So what realistically topples Boris within the Tory party? A more free market orientated wing with Javid coming back in the fray? A more authoritarian right with Patel and Gove?

Its funny how quickly this changes; last summer you had Tory MPs openly saying that Sunak would be bought in before the next election to stop Keir from winning & then during wallpaper gate everyone was saying that he was too broke & facing too many legal/personal perils and would quit... but of course the local elections have changed that.

If I had to put money on the most likely at the moment I'd say he'll probably retire a few years into a second term where he's facing various personal and political changes and just gives up- it will be a personal rather ideological split.

If things have changed like they have in the last six months, then they can change again.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Tory Party is in its best shape in decades lol, there’s no reason for this thread other than to moan about their electoral success.

They are currently in a very strong position, obviously.

But its just two years (almost to the day) since they recorded their lowest ever score in a poll (17%)

Complacency is rarely a wise thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak is basically a fan of "sound money" (or as some of us might put it, pro-austerity Thatcherism) and that doesn't sit terribly well with the party's recent populist "splash the cash when it suits us" turn.

[CumbrianLefty]

I dunno what poll is being referred to above, but the two out yesterday had the Tory lead dropping.

[CumbrianLefty]

So wretched hive of scum and villainy it is, then

[CumbrianLefty]

Cheap at half the price

[CumbrianLefty]

The triple lock seems like madness too

Given their current voting coalition, it would be a "brave" Tory who took the axe to that one.

[CumbrianLefty]

He certainly had his fans before his (it now appears, temporary) political eclipse a few years ago. Tbh I can't really get past the Ayn Rand fandom, but its not terribly likely I'm his target audience

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson will just sack it all off if it becomes too difficult, though.

He's not like Thatcher in that respect at least.

[CumbrianLefty]

And of course, said "sea change" is a real opportunity for a Labour party that isn't obsessed by itself.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is little appetite for economic liberalism even in the Tories because of what Osborne did in the earlier coalition years especially, and the consequences of it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mostly that article just tells you that Matthew Parris is extremely right-wing these days.

But still voted LibDem at the last GE

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, even though much of the above list is true about the New Labour years - they were still well to the left of any Tory government (save possibly in the very final Blair years, but even then.....)

The really resonant critique of NL is that they didn't achieve as much as they could have done.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss appears to be the most popular amongst the membership, believe it or not.

[CumbrianLefty]

Torygraph now sending daily attacks on the PM's character - as if it hasn't been obvious for some time; but it is notable since they've traditionally gone down the "too Lefty" line.

Discontent is very much spread through all factions of the Party; it's difficult to identify a pro-Boris block - and the careerist element to his support is faltering for obvious reasons.

Some of the "red wall" group, still? Plus of course Nadine Dorries

[CumbrianLefty]

I see Peter Hitchens has decided Liz Truss is a "Lefty liberal".

She's a sleeper lib dem agent.

Well she was one once, but then again Hitchens P was a Trot back in the day.

[CumbrianLefty]

99 rebels on vaccine passports, including Louie French, elected at the Bexley by-election; and Stephen Hammond, one of the 21 Brexit rebels all those years ago...

102 Tories voting against some aspect of the measures overall.

Plus smaller Labour rebellions (especially on the NHS staff vote)

Two opposition front benchers quit over this - any Tories?

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss has been given a bit of a poisoned chalice by BoJo, then - though it isn't that hard to see how she *could* turn that to her advantage.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mere speculation of course but my estimation is that the true number of letters is roughly 175% of the public ones.  So for every 3 public letters there are about 2 private ones.  This would mean there are about 27 letters which sounds about right.

Still sceptical that we will reach the magic number before the May elections - not least because some MPs may still be intending to deliberately hold back until after then.

(to answer the just posted query - letters remain "live" indefinitely once they are sent in, until that particular leader's tenure ends or there is an actual confidence vote; not sure about the precise way a letter is "withdrawn" but that has definitely happened during this and previous leaderships)

[CumbrianLefty]

40 or so would be in line with a 3-1 ratio of private to public letters. Which, as I noted, is roughly in line with the ratio when you average out those seen during the IDS and May leadership challenges. Maybe that's the thinking of the above quoted source too.

Wasn't the public-to-private ratio slightly higher with May than IDS, though? If that trend has carried on (and there is of course no guarantee that it has) we might still be a wee bit off.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson is appointing MPs (Guto Harri and Steve Barclay) as his staff replacements, which seems odd.

Ahem, when did Guto Harri ever become an MP??

[CumbrianLefty]

No problem, it was interesting to read.

[CumbrianLefty]

How else to spend your sunday than arguing with your colleagues about John Major. As we said deeply weird & Whatsapp does not help these poor poor souls.

https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1492868475487936513

Makes a change from Labour people arguing about Blair, I suppose.

In other news, Sqwawkbox thought that "New Labour" mock up was genuine

[CumbrianLefty]

And more fines for the PM and other leading Tory figures are still highly possible.