This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[CumbrianLefty]

The 10% swing in neighbouring Stretford/Urmston in the byelection at the end of 2022 would easily be enough to turn Brady's seat red. He's anyway had a pretty good innings too.

[Torrain]

Pauline Latham, MP for the safe seat of Mid Derbyshire is retiring at the next election, to spend more time with family. She's 75, so feels like an understandable move.

The seat has a 15,000 Conservative majority, and the boundary changes in Derbyshire are expected to be minor (same number of MPs returned, with minor shifts in boundaries to reflect population movement), so if the party is looking for somewhere to parachute a candidate in, this might be one of their better options...

Conservative retirements now stand at 25 (26 if you count Hancock), plus three deselections.

[CumbrianLefty]

It *is* pretty safe, but not super-duper safe. As with many other Midlands seats outside the big cities, the last GE probably overstated the "base" Tory strength somewhat.

[Torrain]

Richard Bacon, MP for Norfolk South is being asked not to stand for selection by local members:

Some members felt that MP for South Norfolk, Richard Bacon, has not been "visible" enough, the BBC has been told.

Both the local party and Conservative party headquarters have declined to comment. Mr Bacon, Norfolk's longest serving MP, was unavailable for comment.

It is not clear if he will fight the decision, which was made by a selection council of local members who met in Wymondham.

Party sources said he could ask for a vote of all local party members to decide whether he should stand again, or he could apply to fight another seat or just agree to stand down at the next election.

The 60-year-old was elected MP for South Norfolk in 2001 and has increased his majority at almost every election.

Does appear to be a constituency-specific issue, rather than a factional fight (for the record, Bacon backed Johnson pretty vociferiously during partygate - being the MP who suggested NHS workers "let their hair down" and broke restrictions too during lockdown).

[Blair]

Very very noticeable how many old hands who were thrown out under Johnson and Truss have come back to tell everyone how great Rishi is and marvellous he is doing.

[CumbrianLefty]

By showing some basic competence (though I wouldn't overstate it, as some pundits are now doing) Sunak has maybe bought a respite until at least 2024, even if May's local elections are pretty bad.

If they are and next year's local polls are also a drubbing, however - something could still happen.

He's not totally safe until a late 2024 GE (which remains the likeliest date) just yet.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/itvnews/status/1636499784604237824

[CumbrianLefty]

Thought this had happened already?

[Torrain]

Thought this had happened already?

I think that was Johnson announcing he was running for selection. Just think it’s noteworthy that he’s essentially “locked in” now. Can’t formally chase a safer constituency while he’s the official candidate in U&SR.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, you all have your popcorn at the ready for tomorrow I hope.

[Torrain]

Indeed. Had the news on in the background over lunch, and it sounds like Johnson's defence amounts to - "Sure, I mislead Parliament, but I didn't know there was a party down the hallway, so you can't judge me".

Still kinda amazed they've got him scheduled for four hours of testimony. If his testy appearances before the Liasion Committee are anything to go by, can't imagine he's going to be cooperative or well-behaved over after one hour, let alone four.

[Torrain]

Craig Whittaker, MP for Calder Valley (majority of 5,774) is retiring at the next election.

Whittaker is probably most notable for being Deputy Chief Whip under Liz Truss, and attempting to resign alongside Chief Whip Wendy Morton over the chaotic fracking vote the day before she resigned - giving the immortal line "I'm absolutely f**king furious, I just don't f**king care anymore". (Obligatory ITV News clip)

His seat of Calder Valley fits a familiar pattern from these retirements - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then retaken under Cameron. Whittaker scraped home with a 609 vote majority in 2017, so this definitely feels like one of those "writing on the wall" retirements.

[Torrain]

Sally-Ann Hart, who lost a reselection ballot, and faced an open selection contest, has been adopted as the candidate for her constituency. Hands, the Party Chairman had made some vague remarks about supporting our MPs, so it’s unclear whether Hart was the best of the available options, or whether this represents formal push-back on the CDO’s deselection campaign.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1638926139769880577

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His seat of Calder Valley fits a familiar pattern from these retirements - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then retaken under Cameron. Whittaker scraped home with a 609 vote majority in 2017, so this definitely feels like one of those "writing on the wall" retirements.

Constituency was created in 1983 from parts of the abolished Sowerby and Brighouse & Spenborough constituencies, both of which were gained by the Conservatives in 1979. The former was reliably Labour during the postwar decades (and was represented for almost all of the period by Douglas Houghton, an important figure in the Party in the 60s and 70s), though the majorities were rarely large and became very slender in the 1970s as deindustrialization kicked in. The latter was a tight marginal with the smallest of Labour leans in which the winning candidate had a percentage majority of under 1% three times (and under one hundred votes on two of these occasions) during the postwar period. It is notable for a by-election in 1960, which was a Conservative gain from Labour not long after the Conservatives had won a general election with a large and increased parliamentary majority: Labour won it again in 1964 as part of the overturning of that large majority.

[Blair]

If Conservative local executives are like Labour it’s very easy to see how you could lose a vote among 8-10 people who were elected by a meeting of 20 people, and then go on to easily win through the larger membership.

[Torrain]

Another apparent deselection (discussed on page 10 of this thread) has been reversed:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ConHome/status/1640369151746121728

[Torrain]

Another retirement - Stuart Anderson, in Wolverhampton South West (majority of 1,661).

An odd seat, in that Labour gained it in 2015, then lost it in 2019.

Anderson has only been an MP since 2019, and has been a whip since Johnson’s caretaker government last year.

[Coldstream]

Another retirement - Stuart Anderson, in Wolverhampton South West (majority of 1,661).

An odd seat, in that Labour gained it in 2015, then lost it in 2017 (by a larger margin than they would obtain in 2019).

Anderson has only been an MP since 2019, and has been a whip since Johnson’s caretaker government last year.

I think you meant to write won? It’s Rob Marris’s old seat. A weird one in that it’s had a different person elected at each election since 2005 (non consecutively Marris in 2005 & 2015) and 5 different MP’s since ‘97.

[Torrain]

I think you meant to write won? It’s Rob Marris’s old seat. A weird one in that it’s had a different person elected at each election since 2005 (non consecutively Marris in 2005 & 2015) and 5 different MP’s since ‘97.

Ah, thanks, corrected it now. Typed that post out while stuck on a bus, and was flipping between two tabs. Should have double-checked...

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nicolafrichards/status/1640434776828985345
2019 intake MP, stepping down from Tom Watson’s old seat, that she won by 1,593 votes.

There’s speculation that her vague wording indicates that’s she going to try and run for the nomination in Sajid Javid’s safe seat of Bromsgrove, now he’s retiring.

Certainly there’s a former minister mouthing off to Michael Crick, and suggesting that both Richards and Anderson are standing down so they’re free to run in safer seats.

Which, although a tad cowardly, is far from unprecedented. In 1997, several backbenchers, including David Amess switched from marginal to safe seats, and most survived. Others, like Norman Lamont, were swept out with the tide. That was also an election where a boundary redraw shook up the nomination process.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another retirement - Stuart Anderson, in Wolverhampton South West (majority of 1,661).

An odd seat, in that Labour gained it in 2015, then lost it in 2017 (by a larger margin than they would obtain in 2019).

Anderson has only been an MP since 2019, and has been a whip since Johnson’s caretaker government last year.

I think you meant to write won? It’s Rob Marris’s old seat. A weird one in that it’s had a different person elected at each election since 2005 (non consecutively Marris in 2005 & 2015) and 5 different MP’s since ‘97.

Its Labour MP in 1997, Jenny Jones, was one of a handful of one termers in that intake.

(and even fewer did so through choice, as she did)

[Torrain]

Bit of a weird situation going on with Julian Knight - he's claiming to be cleared by the police, but the Chief Whip hints there's more going on, and he won't be getting the whip back. Doesn't seem good, whatever it is.
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1641101208432570368

[Torrain]

Presented without comment, following legal advice.
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1641126968270757888

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, crime as a political issue. It is back.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, crime as a political issue. It is back.

Which is rarely good news for the governing party.