This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Torrain]

I forgot to add that Johnson is also building quite a long enemies list; Jenrick, Williamson, Buckland, Mercer and co all added in the last 6 months.

When the leadership election comes - and it must eventually, I expect they'll line up to support the other chap.

Though at this point, even staunch allies like Raab seem to be cooling on the PM, who seems to wield demotion as his only real form of party discipline.

The remaining Cabinet members aren't going to be much help either. It strikes me that:

• Sunak has no need to be loyal - he's a viable candidate.
• Patel has too poor a reputation to command much support (she's probably dependent on Johnson, rather than the other way around).
• Truss is untested, and probably more likely to end up a hopeless challenger supported by the populist-right than a supporter
• Gove only cares about Gove, and will probably run for PM, rather than support Johnson
• Javid appears to have no real constituency within the party, and has too long a history of clashing with Johnson to be a plausible surrogate.

[Torrain]

Truss appears to be the most popular amongst the membership, believe it or not.

That’s disappointing. If we were to take any lesson from Boris’ premiership, I thought it would be not to trust loudmouthed populists with the PM’s seat.

(Bonus plots if they are a blond(e) former Foreign Secretary with limited ministerial experience and a history of gaffes. Man, they really might just be the same person).

[Torrain]

Zahawi is very much the type of dark-horse who could win; supported Brexit, an early backer of Boris, good on TV & a proven record in Government.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324501/Jeremy-Hunt-Nadhim-Zahawi-jostle-poll-position-Tory-succession-race.html

He's a credible minister, but I still think the party will do what they usually do, and pick someone who's occupied one of the Great Offices of State.

When the dust has settled, I think Zahawi is likely to hold a major office (FCO, Home, or Health if he's unlucky), but unlikely to be PM.

He strikes me as the sort of MP who may run initially, but leave the race early, and whip votes for the eventual winner (see Raab, Javid and Hancock in the 2019 race).

I would be happy to be wrong though (I'd far rather Zahawi than Truss or Raab, for instance), and I often am when it comes to predicting the Tory party these days.

[Torrain]

Truss has been given a bit of a poisoned chalice by BoJo, then - though it isn't that hard to see how she *could* turn that to her advantage.

Yeah - handing an MP a Northern Ireland brief is often little more than political assassination.

My father’s from County Down, just outside of Belfast. When we were discussing Truss’s appointment today, his first comment was essentially “Boris is trying to screw her career then.”

Even if Truss somehow pulls off a deal that keeps both sides happy (slim chance of that), she’s still going to be kept busy enough that it’s harder for her to plan a coherent leadership campaign.

And if she fails, a United Ireland becomes more likely, embarrassing the Tory base and making Truss seem like an implausible leader. (I’d hope it’s beyond Boris to use international borders as bargaining chips in an infra-party squabble, but I wouldn’t put it past him.)

[Torrain]

Thought I might revive this thread for a wee while. Appreciate that I've posted a lot of tweets and vague speculation about challenges to Johnson in the UK megathread, and thought it might be better to quarantine that in this other, Tory-specific thread, so as not to clog up the main thread.

Given that the leadership situation in the party seems fated to drag on for weeks or months, given Johnson's stubborness, the slow drip of 1922 letters, and glacial pace of the Met investigation, it feels like this thread might be a good place to discuss the party squabbles.

First, I think it might be worth recapping the state of play in the parliamentary party, and the rules that govern a leadership challenge.

The Conservatives won 365 seats in 2019. As of the 1st of February 2022, that number has been reduced to 359, but is expected to return to 360 following the by-election in the seat of the late Sir David Amess. Excluding Amess, the Conservatives have lost 6 seats (but regained one seat in the Hartlepool by-election):

• Anne Marie Morris - Whip suspended for voting against the party on a VAT cut for fuel bills
• Imran Ahmad Khan - Whip suspended after sexual assault charges brought in court
• Rob Roberts  - Whip suspended after independent panel found him guilty of inappropriate sexual activity and harassment
• Dame Cheryl Gillan - died in office, replaced by Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Green
• Owen Paterson - resigned over bribery allegations, replaced by Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan
• Christian Wakeford - defected to Labour, following claims of bullying within the Tory whipping operation, and PartyGate

Leadership challenge and election rules for the Conservative Party are as follows:

_{Credit to the Institute for Government}
Note: 54 MPs required to hit the 15% threshold in this Parliament, and 181 MPs required to survive a confidence vote.

Letters can be submitted anonymously, but some members make a point of submitting publicly to attempt to build momentum for a successful challenge. For a now-ironic example of this, see Jacob Rees-Mogg's public submission of a letter against Theresa May, in 2018.

It's not worth trying to gauge how many anonymous letters have been submitted - given that vague reports of submissions (and on some days, retractions) have become about as regular as work meetings with complementary wine and karaoke in Downing Street.

[Torrain]

Following on from the prior post, here's a list of those who've taken public steps to oppose/undermine Johnson in the past month, and still have a vote in the contest:

• Sir Roger Gale - public submission of 1922 letter, sustained criticism
• Douglas Ross (Scottish Conservatives leader) - public submission of 1922 letter, sustained criticism
• Andrew Bridgen - public submission of 1922 letter, sustained criticism
• Caroline Nokes - public call for resignation, sustained criticism
• David Davis (former Brexit Secretary) - public call for resignation
• Theresa May - sharp criticism within the Commons, has indicated a belief Johnson has either broken his own laws, or acted willfullly ignorant of them (in addition to prior aminosity arising from rivalry over party leadership)
• Andrew Mitchell - public declaration of no-confidence in Johnson
• William Wragg - declared Johnson's position "untenable", called for resignation
• Angela Richardson - resigned from the government (role as Gove's PPS) in protest over the scandal, has published statement explaining this resignation that directly rebukes the government
• Aaron Bell - blazing criticism of Johnson in the Commons, has spoken strongly in support of Richardson (see above) resigning on principal from the Government.
• Tim Loughton - public call for resignation
• Jeremy Hunt - former rival, current critic as chair of the Health Committee, and openly speculating about his role in a hypothetical leadership election
• Tom Tugendhat - open speculation about succeeding Johnson, all but declared his leadership campaign in an interview with Times Radio (the Times' audio outlet) this week
• Sir Charles Walker - has asked Johnson to resign, while leaving the decision with him
• Peter Aldous - public submission of 1922 letter
• Tobias Ellwood - public submission of 1922 letter
• Anthony Mangnal - public submission of 1922 letter
• Gary Streeter  - public submission of 1922 letter

Numerous outlets, from the Financial Times to the BBC have suggested that an additional four ministers have laid the groundwork for serious leadership campaigns, (Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Nadhim Zahawi, Sajid Javid, and Penny Mordaunt), but it feels premature to include them on this list, while they remain publicly loyal.

This post will be updated alongside submission of further confidence letters etc

[Torrain]

New this morning: Tobias Ellwood has confirmed he will be sending a letter to the 1922 committee.

Odd wrinkle is that it sounds like he wants Johnson to pull the same move Major did in 1995, (calling a vote against himself!), in order to determine whether support exists for his premiership.

It’s not covered in the clip below, but later in the Sky News interview, Ellwood seems to credit Johnson’s Saville comments as part of the issue that pushed him over the edge. Incredible how even when ostensibly defending himself, Johnson opens up new political wounds for himself.

 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1488797166755794947?s=20&t=VOrHmSIHzfZVXj...

[Torrain]

The monthly ConservativeHome poll of party member’s approval of cabinet members has been released.

Notably, Liz Truss has been dethroned for the first time in a year, by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, while Johnson has slid further into the red. Sunak sits pretty low, likely as a result of the continued tax-and-spend direction the government has indicated. JRM has fallen from fifth to near the bottom, and his fall in support over the past month is only challenged by the Chief Whip. It’s not all good news for the rebels though. Douglas Ross’ approval has fallen significantly since leading the Scottish Conservatives in calls for Johnson’s resignation.


Polling (even polls released today) continue to show Truss narrowly leading Sunak, with various other runners and riders lagging behind. But the rise of personal support for Ben Wallace makes me wonder whether he could enter the conversation as a May-style consensus candidate, should a leadership election arise.

[Torrain]

Another letter has been sent - the third in 24 hours:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1488887664493445125?ref_src=tw...

Worth noting that Magnall is a 2019-intake MP, but represents a safe seat that has elected Conservatives in basically increasing margins since 1997. So less likely to be motivated by preservation of his seat than preservation of the party writ-large.

For those playing the ‘Tory factions’ game, Magnall is close to the centre, having authored papers for the ‘One Nation Conservatives’ caucus, and is opposed to aid cuts.

[Torrain]

How long is a letter valid ? and what is the proccese of withdrawing a letter ?

Since Sir Graham Brady became chairman of the 1922 Committee, letters remain active indefinitely, unless a member actively withdraws it, or said member leaves the Parliamentary Party (through suspension, resignation, death or defection). Previously a letter was valid for one year, and then lapsed, according to this report from the New Statesman, from around the time May’s leadership troubles.

It’s unclear whether a letter can be verbally withdrawn, or if a second letter stating an updated position must be sent. If I come across a better answer to that question, I’ll update this post.

[Torrain]

And another one (3rd public submission today, 4th in the last 24 hours)

https://mobile.twitter.com/garystreeterSWD/status/1488920944949317646

"I cannot reconcile the pain and sacrifice of the vast majority of the British Public during lockdown with the attitude and activities of those working in Downing Street."

[Torrain]

BBC article tonight suggests they can report a minimum submission of 17 letters total (including the 9 public submissions so far).

As ever, given the secrecy involved, it’s unclear if/how many additional letters have been submitted privately, without chatting to a BBC journalist.

(At this point the total could be pretty much anything under the threshold, although I’m inclined to believe Conservatopia’s figure of around 27 total letters is plausible).

[Torrain]

Big day for the Chancellor today. He’s announcing the government support package to deal with the cost-of-living strain, and giving a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.

Obviously these are fairly standard parts of his remit - but given that he’s talking to the press for an extended period, right before the 6 O’Clock news, you have to imagine he’ll have a carefully worded response on the Boris situation. It’ll probably make the headlines either way.

 

[Torrain]

Interesting tidbit from the Times’ Whitehall Editor:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1489295239365939201

Even if the Chalk wasn’t/isn’t serious about resigning, the fact that cabinet ministers can extract concessions just for staying in their jobs doesn’t sound sustainable.

[Torrain]

Big day for the Chancellor today. He’s announcing the government support package to deal with the cost-of-living strain, and giving a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.

Obviously these are fairly standard parts of his remit - but given that he’s talking to the press for an extended period, right before the 6 O’Clock news, you have to imagine he’ll have a carefully worded response on the Boris situation. It’ll probably make the headlines either way.

 

He more or less rebuffed Johnson on the Saville remarks.

Yeah - he's walking a tightrope at the moment. His 'I wouldn't have said it' stuff seem to be about as far as he's willing to go, (while still stressing his 'full support') but it's probably about as pointed as you can get within the government right now.

[Torrain]

The consensus among journalists seems to be that Johnson was planning to replace 2 or 3 of those who resigned today, but panicked and brought all the removals forwards when Mirza resigned on principle.

Unfortunately for Johnson, the narrative seems to have gotten away from him, and his attempts to rebrand "Johnson looses key ally" to "Johnson brings promised shakeup to Downing Street" appear to have failed.

There appears to be an attempt by Boris loyalist MPs to spin the resignations, but the spin has itself become part of the story.

https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1489337562921684995
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1489334059725688835?s=21

[Torrain]

Sunak has written an editorial for The Sun's Friday edition. 

As has been the case over the last couple of days, he seems to be getting as close to launching a leadership campaign as you can from within the cabinet...

We have always been the party of sound money — we will always continue to be on my watch — and that is the only kind of party I am interested in.

[Torrain]

Aaron Bell - 2019 MP who criticised Johnson directly in the Commons, and who Times reporters suggest submitted a letter a week ago, has confirmed submission of his 1922 letter.

He’s the tenth to do so publicly.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL/status/1489617282968002570

[Torrain]

Speaking of momentum…

Former schools minister Nick Gibb has joined the rebels tonight.

He’s written a letter in conjunction with an editorial for the Telegraph, where he starts by commending Aaron Bell.

The fact that both men both submitted letters on the same day is, I’m sure, a truly massive coincidence .As is the fact that Bell went public just before the 5pm news, while Gibb went public just before the 10pm news…

If you have a free article, I’d consider having a read of his op-ed. While he concedes Johnson retains some support among the party faithful, he argues that the outrage of his constituents, and Johnson’s loss of both moral and political authority have neutered his premiership. He quite rightly suggests that nothing serious can be done about the cost of living crisis while Johnson is running a whipping operation 24/7.

*

Outside the editorial, Gibb going public is kind of a big deal. He’s the definition of ‘party faithful’, and is one of the longest serving ministers since the party gained control in 2010. That includes  a 6 year term served continuously under Cameron, May and Johnson. He’s viewed as moderate, unassuming, and has been a Boris ally. All indications from the Whitehall press is that he wasn’t on anyone’s list of potential troublemakers.

[Torrain]

Over 40 already? If that’s true (always hard to gauge true number of letters, but the Telegraph have a good track record with partygate), could Monday be d-day?

Also - the Times suggests the Cabinet are in disarray.

The cabinet descended into rancour over Boris Johnson’s future last night after both Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak rebuked the prime minister.

One cabinet minister called for Johnson to dismiss Sunak, and two others accused the chancellor of being “on manoeuvres” after he criticised the prime minister for a personal attack on Sir Keir Starmer.

It all sounds more House of Cards than reality, but if any cabinet were to squabble like this - it would be this one.

(Also, I’d bet good money that if any minister called for Sunak to go, to his face, it has to be Dorries).

[Torrain]

40 or so would be in line with a 3-1 ratio of private to public letters. Which, as I noted, is roughly in line with the ratio when you average out those seen during the IDS and May leadership challenges. Maybe that's the thinking of the above quoted source too.

Here's another thing we don't know about the process - if the 54th reached Brady tonight or tomorrow, would he announce it or at least inform Johnson immediately, or would he wait until Monday? This is important as announcing it on a Friday or at the beginning of the weekend would effectively make it a days long campaign. The vote against May was announced and concluded during the same day (although there was some speculation that she had been informed prior to then, on the basis of her body language at some appearance or other).

My understanding is that the PM is informed first (May certainly was, and pretty sure IDS was too). May’s confidence vote was announced in the morning and held in the evening. Similarly, IDS’s vote was announced on 28/10/2003, and held the next day. But as you say, the latency period between reception of the last letter, and the announcement, is the big question.

Roughly 12-24 hours between announcement and vote seems to be the norm - but the weekend is weird, and I wouldn’t put it past the rebels (if they’ve got an accurate count) to hold the last letters until Monday so they can avoid this thing becoming a 48 hour frenzy of last minute promises and back-door deals.

[Torrain]

Weird, but perhaps interesting part of the reshuffle, that feels more suited to a discussion of the parliamentary party than UK politics at large:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1491129115940102146

Guess this is the latest attempt to get the 2019 cohort on side - something along the lines of "We're listening to you, and willing to promote you if you stay loyal." Johnson can't hand peerages or knighthoods to junior MPs, but he's clearly willing to offer them the first rung on the ministerial ladder.

I imagine the next week will show whether these moves help stabilise Johnson's premiership for a time, or whether we'll look back on this reshuffle as one of Johnson's last attempts to rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic.

[Torrain]

New position from Ian Duncan Smith. IDS has spent the past week warning against a leadership challenge, suggesting that the destabilising influence to the party could majorly impact their chances (it all sounded very 2003).

But in an interview with the i (the slimmed down print version of the Independent), he's come down pretty hard about Johnson's position if he's fined by the Met.

Asked if the holder of the highest office could remain in post after being found to have broken the law he said: “That’s a decision made by my colleagues but I think it would be very tough for anyone to remain after that. If you’ve set the laws, and you break them and the police decide you have broken them… and then there’s the unredacted [Sue Gray] report – the two things will come together.”

He still seems hesitant elsewhere in the article, especially now the scandal is quieter. But it's interesting to see him take a harder line. Sure, the goalposts have been moved on a weekly basis since December, but hey, I'll take what I can get.

Edit: From what I've seen online, there seems to be a feeling among political journalists with Tory sources (read: the Telegraph), that IDS hasn't had a 'come to Jesus' moment, as much as he is airing publicly what the backbenches have been saying privately over the past couple of days.

[Torrain]

Torrain if there is a leadership election would you join (re-join?) the party? Or have you completely left behind the party? Who would you vote for out of Sunak, Truss, Hunt and Raab?

Ah, that’s a question…

There is a world where I can support the Conservatives again - but not in this cycle, and probably not the next either.

I don’t fully want to give up on those who I got into politics alongside in Glasgow. There was a real feeling of change there - a group of working and lower-middle class students who could feel welcome in the more moderate, progressive party environment created by Davidson. The problem is that most of them have dropped off the scene, alienated by Johnson. Whether they return, and me with them, depends... If the situation is salvageable, and I can move back to Scotland full time, I may still give it a shot. But if the party goes more Dorries than Davidson, it might be a lost cause above the border.

As it is, I did briefly consider re-upping my membership to the Scottish branch, as a show of support for Douglas Ross, after he took a stand against Johnson earlier in the year. But I’m aware that Johnson is looking for any political lifeline, and I’d not want to be cited in PMQ as among “the thousands of new members who’ve joined the party since 2021!” or something like that.

The other issue right now is that there’s typically a several month threshold required before you can vote in leadership elections. Trust me, I initially joined formally to try and elect May (who I considered the far more serious, competent candidate) over Leadsom, before the latter dropped out. I was 18 and thought I was doing my civic duty - I was more idealistic then. There would be a chance that I pay my dues but get locked out of the process entirely.

[Torrain]

Who would you vote for out of Sunak, Truss, Hunt and Raab?

In terms of replacement PMs? I think I’d reluctantly back Sunak, still. While my support for May seems poor in hindsight, I stand by the principles that brought me to that conclusion. If you’re going to take over as PM, you should have a period of service in high office that wasn’t a disaster, you should take it seriously, and if your personality is more ‘Gardner’s Question Time’ than ‘Game of Thrones’, all the better.

I think populism, especially the anti-expert, ‘having a lark’ approach taken by Johnson is responsible for some real damage, and given her antics (from the costume diplomacy to the tank photos), there’s something more style than substance to Truss I distrust.

Hunt seems to have gained a level head, between his time in the Foreign Office and chairmanship of the Health Committee, but his record on the NHS would bring him into office with a millstone (rightly) around his neck, and could cause some electoral mayhem. (I think the Tory party could do with a real slap on the wrist by the electorate soon, but don’t think that a Major/Hague style loss would necessarily benefit the country - a strong opposition party is typically a good check on Downing Street).

Raab wouldn’t be great. I think he’s been overly caricatured - I’ve heard him give testimony to the Foreign Affairs Committee, and he held up alright - but he’s still little more than a mouthpiece for Johnson, and lacks the seriousness we need amidst Ukraine and the loss of public trust in Government.

Sunak does hold of the same issues as Truss (lack of a clear ideology), and his personal fortune will clash with the current cost of living situation. But at the end of the day, I still think he’s the most competent of the four. I disliked his energy loan scheme, but his willingness to pull emergency levers during 2020 showed a willingness to buck party orthodoxy if there was a clear necessity. It would be reluctant - but he’s who I’d pull the lever for.

If I can be candid though? There’s another candidate for PM, who I could enthusiastically vote for, rather than through gritted teeth. A candidate with sensible foreign policy, a level head who seems to have a better handle on party disunity. He just happens to be standing at the opposing dispatch box.

I know you’re warmer on Truss than I am - is she your preferred candidate? Or do you have someone else in mind?

Edit: that was more of an essay than I planned. Apologies - Atlas and cider are not a wise combination…