This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Blair]

So what realistically topples Boris within the Tory party? A more free market orientated wing with Javid coming back in the fray? A more authoritarian right with Patel and Gove?

Its funny how quickly this changes; last summer you had Tory MPs openly saying that Sunak would be bought in before the next election to stop Keir from winning & then during wallpaper gate everyone was saying that he was too broke & facing too many legal/personal perils and would quit... but of course the local elections have changed that.

If I had to put money on the most likely at the moment I'd say he'll probably retire a few years into a second term where he's facing various personal and political changes and just gives up- it will be a personal rather ideological split.

[Blair]

Since there is only one Conservative on the board this is just going to be a lot of Labourites telling everyone how much they hate the Tories, like literally every other thread.

I mean this isn't true based on the three posts already from the Labourites?

[Blair]

Reshuffle rumours are hotting up.  Of course for now it's all just rumouring but it's interesting none the less.

Jenrick and Shapps are rumoured to be sacked but I reckon they stay on at least long enough to see through their projects (planning reform and GBR respectively).  Patel may or may not be demoted but that would be very risky for the PM.  Johnson (and Carrie) apparently want Javid to return, possibly in the Education brief.

Most people assume Williamson will be sacked (or at least demoted) but now some believe that as a result of being Chief Whip and Johnson's leadership campaign manager he may know where too many bodies are buried.  I say so what - it would be nice to see the PM show the right sort of balls for once.

Interesting- reshuffles always have much bigger shuffles briefed before & often end up being low-key. I believe we were promised one last year that ended up being 2-3 juniors getting promoted. But it does seem the right time for a reshuffe- especially when this cabinet was born out of the dynamics of 2019. (Shapps & Williamson were both given jobs for delivering Boris the MPs he needed to win the first round)

Williamson is extremely overrated politically; he was a failure at Defence and an even bigger failure at Education- he offered to resign last summer over the exams fiasco & frankly should have been sacked. He's become one of those Westminster politicians who lots of people claim is very powerful/dangerous but he's got very strong Charles Clarke vibes (aka will sit on the backbenches plotting & will then quit Parliament with a poor record)

It's concerning (if I were tory MP) to see that they want to put Badenoch as education Sec to carry on the 'war on woke'- Williamson has tried this & has failed because the biggest concern for parents will be the huge funding shortfall in schools, the hours of missed learning etc etc.

It needs to be someone who can at least remain relatively competent on all this & play a defensive role in what is often a hard brief- Javid would not be an awful choice compared to the others.

Shapps has been a pretty effective SOS considering the sh**t sandwich he's had- Jenrick is unlikely to be moved because MHCLG is going to be an extremely political department over the next year (Planning reform... but also the Towns Fund, the continued assault on local government etc) and it needs someone like him.

Would be surprised if Patel gets moved; I expect she would go to the backbenches rather than accepting party chair or some useless job. There is a credible gaps among the grassroots by those who think that the party still isn't right wing enough on immigration.

I might be wrong but I also don't think anybody has accepted demotion from a great office of state in a while? (except for Hague's last hurrah as Leader of the House)

[Blair]

I do actually agree with the whips/no.10 view that it’s bad for the Chairman to use the job as an audition for a cabinet position… and then to proceed to sulk for the next 18 months.

[Blair]

Yes it should set alarm bells off when even ConservativeHome is putting out editorials about the PMs ability.

I'm just waiting for the realisation from Tory MPs that a new chief of staff, or a new cabinet minister won't change the fundamental problem.

I forgot to add that Johnson is also building quite a long enemies list; Jenrick, Williamson, Buckland, Mercer and co all added in the last 6 months.

[Blair]

Zahawi is very much the type of dark-horse who could win; supported Brexit, an early backer of Boris, good on TV & a proven record in Government.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324501/Jeremy-Hunt-Nadhim-Zahawi-jostle-poll-position-Tory-succession-race.html

[Blair]

It's all starting to feel very much like May after Meaningful Vote 1.

The briefing overnight was clearly about people making distance & it appears that the backbench rebellion and anger certainly made it harder to do anything.

[Blair]

How long is a letter valid ? and what is the proccese of withdrawing a letter ?

Since Sir Graham Brady became chairman of the 1922 Committee, letters remain active indefinitely, unless a member actively withdraws it, or said member leaves the Parliamentary Party (through suspension, resignation, death or defection). Previously a letter was valid for one year, and then lapsed, according to this report from the New Statesman, from around the time May’s leadership troubles.

It’s unclear whether a letter can be verbally withdrawn, or if a second letter stating an updated position must be sent. If I come across a better answer to that question, I’ll update this post.

Hmm. given that physical letters are accepted with the only authentication being a signature i'm suprised some pranksters hasn't tried to forge MP letters to trigger it.

He now accepts emailed letters. It’s a bizarre system. Really bizarre.

It’s only marginally better than the old system.

[Blair]

I find it very weird that some Tories are trying to pivot blame towards Corrie Johnson almost painting her as a lady Macbeth like figure that led Boris astray despite it making little sense.

It is part of a long running trend; the idea that 'our' Boris is being corrupted/influenced by various outside forces & that he just needs to be steered back on track. These are people who forget that he has always been from the 'one-nation' wing of the party and isn't a natural headbanger.

She is facing the same thing that Cummings faced; when you're unpopular in Westminster your name gets attached to a lot of stuff you're not responsible for because it's easier to blame someone who is already hated.

There is also the fact however that Carrie has clearly engaged in stupid acts that have caused problem after problem; the wallpaper in Downing Street, the vicious war against Cummings, the parties being investigated by the Police.

[Blair]

My very boring take is that it is actually a very bad trend that PPS’ have been taken over by very junior MPs who see it as a stepping stone- when it was actually traditionally often an old seasoned hand or someone will like in the Parliamentary party.

Blair iirc had a former deputy chief whip.

[Blair]

I remember reading one had 300 books on the Kennedy family and had even named his son after one of the brothers.

Which is ironic as the Kennedy’s are hated by Conservatives of a a certain age (my grandmother to this day insists Kennedy Snr was a ‘fascist’)

[Blair]

How else to spend your sunday than arguing with your colleagues about John Major. As we said deeply weird & Whatsapp does not help these poor poor souls.

https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1492868475487936513

[Blair]

We know Conor Burns is a dunce but how on earth is that the lesson you take from the John Major years?

[Blair]

The Defence Secretary making a public deal of cancelling a family holiday to deal with Ukraine, which has gotten both the Evening Standard and the Telegraph politics team excited for some reason. Admirable yes, but only noteworthy because the implication is that Wallace is drawing a contrast (for the purpose of his fellow MPs) with Raab staying on holiday abroad during the fall of Kabul - which led to his fall from grace.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1492820627908177925
I promise I won’t keep pushing ‘surprise PM’ candidate Ben Wallace conspiracies in this thread, but given how much his stock has risen in the last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the defacto candidate for FCO Secretary under a new PM (who will either want to demote Truss, or be Truss herself, creating a vacancy), or at least floated as a consensus leadership candidate by a couple of backbenchers later in the year.

It's notable that he is actually one of Johnson's few genuine allies in Parliament. Johnson lacks the capacity for gratitude to try to boost him if he gets deposed, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the diehards gravitate to a Wallace candidacy, given that some of them are quietly irritated by how obviously Truss is on manouevres.

I wonder if the MoD has been cursed- all the Secretaries of State come in with high prospects, do relatively well (with one exception) and then get ejected- Fox had Werrity, Fallon got outed for alleged inappropriate behaviour, Williamson got sacked in an extremely brutal way and Mordaunt got sacked for not kissing Big Dog’s ring.

[Blair]

An interesting piece- surprised re the line about MPs wanting him to return to the ‘liberal’ London mayor governing approach. Think the ship has sailed.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-survivor-how-much-longer-can-boris-johnson-keep-going

[Blair]

A quick cabinet reshuffle now being touted as an option for BoJo if this week's results are indeed as bad as some Tories are now genuinely starting to fear.

But who to promote who is both a) actually good and b) sufficiently loyal?

Grant Shapps! I guess Javid- if he hadn’t had his non-dom story.

I still contend if Johnson wants to survive and just spend, spend spend just make Gove Chancellor- would be chaotic for sure though.

I spent a while trying to work out who would even be on the shortlist for Chancellor- Truss, Gove and er who else?  I saw it briefed the advantage to Truss is that it damages her as a leadership contender but well they need to be careful otherwise the final round might well be Rees Mogg v Tugendhat at this rate.

I can see how a few old cabinet members might be bought back (Jenrick and Hancock for example) but the problem is that it’s hard to see who could fill the great offices without being a disloyal sh**t.

[Blair]

We’re reaching the late era Blair and Brown stage where people only do a job for 6 months and you can’t actually remember who has been sacked before and for what, and you end up bringing people back who you sacked for a very good reason.

It’s very funny to think Brown was Chancellor for a decade, Straw at FCO for 5 years.

[Blair]

It’s going to be very interesting- Brexit and the rapid nature of 2019 election meant a lot of people stood who would have naturally retired in a 2022 election, but equally there’s a strong similarity to the Labour 2009/10 trend of of MPs in their 60s and 70s who clearly don’t want to do opposition retiring and those who held once marginal seats packing it in.

Much like 2010 I suspect we’ll get a lot who run thinking only they can win and who then get turfed out.

[Blair]

Yeah lots of the 2019 intake are right wing partisans because many are former Tory staffers who stood in these seats they never expected to win, or where needed at the last minute.

The other category is bone headed local councillors who were often made to run outside of their own council patch which errrrr tends to be a sign.

[Blair]

The Conservatives are quite funny in that their civil service (the collection of bag carriers, CCHQ staffers, 'think tank researchers') is generally more economically right wing but generally progressive on LGBT rights and other issues.

Meanwhile in THIGMOO for years the civil service was seen as largely brownite and then err weirdly right wing in a rather aggressive sense- it does seem to be reverting back to type.

[Blair]

Not the biggest news this week - but we have another retirement:
https://mobile.twitter.com/WalkerWorcester/status/1631679809075003392
Walker represents one of those seats that was Tory under Thatcher and Major, Labour under all three Blair wins, and has voted Conservative ever since.

He's also chair of the Education Select Committee and someone who did ministerial gigs under May/Bojo and Truss- if he think there's no chance of him having a career in Parliament (he's only 44!) it's clearly a sign of the times.

I do think though that retirements will get more & more common due to the nature of MPs jobs and the constant demands placed on them even compared to a decade ago.

[Blair]

Very very noticeable how many old hands who were thrown out under Johnson and Truss have come back to tell everyone how great Rishi is and marvellous he is doing.

[Blair]

If Conservative local executives are like Labour it’s very easy to see how you could lose a vote among 8-10 people who were elected by a meeting of 20 people, and then go on to easily win through the larger membership.

[Blair]

It appears some of the MPs we most looked forward to losing (see Dick Holden') have managed to apply to get on the weird Tory list that lets you claim you're displaced- no doubt a few will be wanting to land somewhere a lot safer than their current marginal seats.

I might be wrong but I can't remember any Labour MPs using the 2010 boundary change to jump ship; there's something rather undignified about a junior minister or random backbencher moving across the country for a safer seat.

[Blair]

I might be wrong but I can't remember any Labour MPs using the 2010 boundary change to jump ship; there's something rather undignified about a junior minister or random backbencher moving across the country for a safer seat.

The culture in Labour for a while has been that if the Boundary Commission screws you over, you're expected to suck it up. This is a relatively new development in historical terms and reflects various things that happened in the 70s and 80s.

Oh yes it was only after this I remembered Benn irrc got screwed over in '83 and choose to fight his altered seat rather than the safe seat he was offered in Scotland. An act of courage it must be said.