This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm wondering if there are any good books to learn about the conservative parties recent history ? preferably from someone which isn't written from an obviously partisan lense

The Conservative Party from Thatcher to Cameron by Tim Bale is a reasonably good summary of the period 1990-2010, although it was written and thus breaks off even before the coalition so it’s now a little dated (as is Bale’s boostering for the political dead end of ‘modernisation’, but that’s another story). I’ve not really read a lot of books about the politics of the last decade - the books in the Nuffield Elections Series about the elections of the last decade are good but very pricey unless you have free access to Springer Link. I enjoyed reading Tim Shipman’s accounts of the EU referendum and the first year of the May ministry but I believe that others on here have their doubts about those books and about Shipman. The inevitable problem really with any account of ‘recent’ politics is that it ages faster than a Mummy exposed to the elements, so they usually end up looking a little silly even a year or two down the line.

This is incredibly good advice, I was tearing my hair our for the last hour trying to figure out how I would be able to get those books before remembering to check my university institutional access and discovering that I did in fact have free access to Springer Link.  If only I had read your comment in time I could have saved a lot of time wasted in searching

I'll definitely check out the book and many more thanks to my new found free-accses.

Good to see you've found what you needed! Best of luck man.

[Blair]

How else to spend your sunday than arguing with your colleagues about John Major. As we said deeply weird & Whatsapp does not help these poor poor souls.

https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1492868475487936513

[Blair]

We know Conor Burns is a dunce but how on earth is that the lesson you take from the John Major years?

[TheTide]

I'm wondering if there are any good books to learn about the conservative parties recent history ? preferably from someone which isn't written from an obviously partisan lense

The Conservative Party from Thatcher to Cameron by Tim Bale is a reasonably good summary of the period 1990-2010, although it was written and thus breaks off even before the coalition so it’s now a little dated (as is Bale’s boostering for the political dead end of ‘modernisation’, but that’s another story). I’ve not really read a lot of books about the politics of the last decade - the books in the Nuffield Elections Series about the elections of the last decade are good but very pricey unless you have free access to Springer Link. I enjoyed reading Tim Shipman’s accounts of the EU referendum and the first year of the May ministry but I believe that others on here have their doubts about those books and about Shipman. The inevitable problem really with any account of ‘recent’ politics is that it ages faster than a Mummy exposed to the elements, so they usually end up looking a little silly even a year or two down the line.

It gives them a charming comedic value in many cases. I'm sure there are many books (perhaps even the one you mention) written around 2008 or so talking about how Boris Johnson was a fresh liberal figure who could sweep the youth vote

[CumbrianLefty]

How else to spend your sunday than arguing with your colleagues about John Major. As we said deeply weird & Whatsapp does not help these poor poor souls.

https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1492868475487936513

Makes a change from Labour people arguing about Blair, I suppose.

In other news, Sqwawkbox thought that "New Labour" mock up was genuine

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Defence Secretary making a public deal of cancelling a family holiday to deal with Ukraine, which has gotten both the Evening Standard and the Telegraph politics team excited for some reason. Admirable yes, but only noteworthy because the implication is that Wallace is drawing a contrast (for the purpose of his fellow MPs) with Raab staying on holiday abroad during the fall of Kabul - which led to his fall from grace.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1492820627908177925
I promise I won’t keep pushing ‘surprise PM’ candidate Ben Wallace conspiracies in this thread, but given how much his stock has risen in the last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the defacto candidate for FCO Secretary under a new PM (who will either want to demote Truss, or be Truss herself, creating a vacancy), or at least floated as a consensus leadership candidate by a couple of backbenchers later in the year.

It's notable that he is actually one of Johnson's few genuine allies in Parliament. Johnson lacks the capacity for gratitude to try to boost him if he gets deposed, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the diehards gravitate to a Wallace candidacy, given that some of them are quietly irritated by how obviously Truss is on manouevres.

[Blair]

The Defence Secretary making a public deal of cancelling a family holiday to deal with Ukraine, which has gotten both the Evening Standard and the Telegraph politics team excited for some reason. Admirable yes, but only noteworthy because the implication is that Wallace is drawing a contrast (for the purpose of his fellow MPs) with Raab staying on holiday abroad during the fall of Kabul - which led to his fall from grace.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1492820627908177925
I promise I won’t keep pushing ‘surprise PM’ candidate Ben Wallace conspiracies in this thread, but given how much his stock has risen in the last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the defacto candidate for FCO Secretary under a new PM (who will either want to demote Truss, or be Truss herself, creating a vacancy), or at least floated as a consensus leadership candidate by a couple of backbenchers later in the year.

It's notable that he is actually one of Johnson's few genuine allies in Parliament. Johnson lacks the capacity for gratitude to try to boost him if he gets deposed, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the diehards gravitate to a Wallace candidacy, given that some of them are quietly irritated by how obviously Truss is on manouevres.

I wonder if the MoD has been cursed- all the Secretaries of State come in with high prospects, do relatively well (with one exception) and then get ejected- Fox had Werrity, Fallon got outed for alleged inappropriate behaviour, Williamson got sacked in an extremely brutal way and Mordaunt got sacked for not kissing Big Dog’s ring.

[Torrain]

I wonder if the MoD has been cursed- all the Secretaries of State come in with high prospects, do relatively well (with one exception) and then get ejected- Fox had Werrity, Fallon got outed for alleged inappropriate behaviour, Williamson got sacked in an extremely brutal way and Mordaunt got sacked for not kissing Big Dog’s ring.

Tbh, no Conservative with the singular exception of Philip Hammond seems to have been Defence Sec and gone on to greater things in the past 20 years.

If there is a curse - I bet it started with Portillo, on the night he went from Defence Sec and future PM to an election night byword.

[Torrain]

Slightly interesting - Sir Roger Gale is leading calls to condemn Patel over her handling of Ukraine. As a public critic of Johnson (was among those to submit a 1922 letter), this seems to fit into broader criticisms of the government.

I doubt that there will be any move to depose Johnson before the May elections now, but interesting to see this level of criticism from the “Johnson out” caucus.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SirRogerGale/status/1501186187565936641

[Torrain]

Reviving this thread due to partygate news. While it seems unlikely Johnson will face a serious challenge before May 6th, the upcoming publication of the Gray Report, and public backlash against the PM and Chancellor’s FPN fines mean that one or two MPs will likely break cover and come out against Johnson - and given the high threshold, every rebel, and more importantly, every 1922 letter counts.

The first to break cover is Nigel Mills, who says that Johnson’s position is no longer tenable:
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeorgiaZemoreyR/status/1514140327275282434

[CumbrianLefty]

And more fines for the PM and other leading Tory figures are still highly possible.

[Torrain]

And more fines for the PM and other leading Tory figures are still highly possible.

Yeah, FPN no. 2 has been released this evening, and both the Telegraph and the Mirror seem confident that there's at least one or two more to come...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/13/exclusive-boris-johnson-facing-second-partygate-fine-aides-leaving/

[CumbrianLefty]

BoJo faces the music in the Commons today (though he seems to have dodged PMQs tomorrow)

Bets currently being taken on who the most embarrassingly lickspittle Tory backbencher will be.

[TheTide]

His popularity is too high with the membership. May was done for when masses of angry letters came into local associations and MPs. It might be different in two weeks.

[TheTide]

Mark Harper has sent a letter in.

[Conservatopia]

Received a letter this afternoon from the Conservatives begging me to donate to their "Critical Seats Fund".

The letter has been placed for safe-keeping in a small, round receptacle.

[CumbrianLefty]

Despite some speculation to the contrary, Johnson has actually turned up to do PMQs today - and its gone about as well for him as you might expect all told.

Still don't think he is safe if the locals and Wakefield are really bad.

[Torrain]

Johnson’s performance at PMQs was just poor. He threw the same Corbyn lines at Starmer again and again, and had to spend most of the time denying he’d made various comments about the BBC. 

I felt Starmer did well (he felt comfortable enough to make a quip about Corbyn having the whip withdrawn, and seemed more at ease than he used to), but Johnson seemed confident enough in his position that the PM was able to just BS his way through the session.

I’m just sick of Johnson using Ukraine as a shield against any form of criticism, and being given a blank cheque by backbenchers whenever he screws up. Feels like the Tories will need to have a truly awful night in the locals, and then Wakefield before his position is even remotely vulnerable. Just disappointing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest polling shows that 95% of Labour supporters - and *97*% of LibDems - think that Johnson lied over Partygate. This sort of unanimity is rare in surveys, even for opponents of a person/party.

(and only 17% of Tories are willing to definitely say he didn't, almost as noteworthy)

[Blair]

An interesting piece- surprised re the line about MPs wanting him to return to the ‘liberal’ London mayor governing approach. Think the ship has sailed.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-survivor-how-much-longer-can-boris-johnson-keep-going

[Torrain]

ConservativeHome’s monthly poll of Tory party members approval of the cabinet was released today.



Ben Wallace continues to dominate, as he has done since February (no prizes for guessing what triggered his rise). Nadhim Zahawi continues to bounce between second and third place - definitely a dark horse and probable Great Office candidate under the next leader.

Truss has recovered a bit after her stumbles in Moscow dented her popularity earlier in the year - still feels like a frontrunner.

Patel has recovered, from a negative approval rate, and bottom of the list last month, to the middle of the pack. Whatever you think of the Rwanda policy (not a fan myself), it’s obviously working for Patel amongst a small but key demographic.

Boris and Sunak on the other hand have plunged to historic lows - a far cry from ‘20 and ‘21. Sunak now seems entirely implausible as a successor.

[Oryxslayer]

^ It's increasingly really hard to see Boris not getting to boot after the locals, if what we now expect to happen comes to pass...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What did Ben Eliott do to have such low net approvals?

[Torrain]

What did Ben Eliott do to have such low net approvals?

He’s not an MP, but is a longstanding co-chairman of the party based on his funding prowess. Elliot was a low profile figure with next to no name recognition until recently. However, the spotlight was pointed in his direction during the early part of the Ukraine war.

The luxury concierge service he runs (Quintessentially) has been found to have Russian ties (boasting about servicing the ‘Russian elite’ until their website was hastily rewritten after the story broke) and he was found to have extracted millions in party donations from sympathetic Russian oligarchs. He hasn’t done anything illegal - but it’s his actions are seen as incongruent with Johnson’s rhetoric on Russia, undermining the party’s messaging, and open them up to another charge of hypocrisy.

This is a second-tier scandal for the Tories right now (they’ve got bigger things to worry about), but could be damaging at a General Elecrtion.

[EastAnglianLefty]

^ It's increasingly really hard to see Boris not getting to boot after the locals, if what we now expect to happen comes to pass...

I'm not sure about that. The Tory expectation management is suggesting a par result for them would be losing 750-1000 seats, which would be 1995-style bad, and a lot of journalists are falling for it hook, line and sinker.