This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Conservatopia]

I see Peter Hitchens has decided Liz Truss is a "Lefty liberal".

She's probably too Thatcherite for his liking.

Does Bonkers have any friends amongst the mainstream right?  Farage maybe although Farage would be too libertarian for Bonkers' self-described "British Gaullism".

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I see Peter Hitchens has decided Liz Truss is a "Lefty liberal".

She's a sleeper lib dem agent.

Well she was one once, but then again Hitchens P was a Trot back in the day.

So were Starmer and Blair, werd bunch trots were.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I see Peter Hitchens has decided Liz Truss is a "Lefty liberal".

She's probably too Thatcherite for his liking.

Definitely. Genuine traditionalist conservatives range from at best ambivalent about Thatcher (Roger Scruton) to outright hostile (Hitchens). Mind this was in an article saying she was no Thatcher despite her silly tank photo-op: I think it is a reference to her ironic family history with CND and Greenham Common.

Does Bonkers have any friends amongst the mainstream right?  Farage maybe although Farage would be too libertarian for Bonkers' self-described "British Gaullism".

Not as far as I can tell. Actually the best historical example I can think of is Peter Shore, but he was Labour.

[Conservatopia]

Definitely. Genuine traditionalist conservatives range from at best ambivalent about Thatcher (Roger Scruton) to outright hostile (Hitchens). Mind this was in an article saying she was no Thatcher despite her silly tank photo-op: I think it is a reference to her ironic family history with CND and Greenham Common.

I don't think it's fair to blame Truss for her "left-of-Labour" parents. That being said whilst she has always been an unabashed economic liberal her new socially (kinda) conservative trait is most likely opportunism.

Not as far as I can tell. Actually the best historical example I can think of is Peter Shore, but he was Labour.

Good point - although Shore was a lot more leftwing on economic issues than Bonkers is today. Hitchens is actually probably the British political figure whose ideology is closest to mine, except he is non-interventionist in foreign policy I think.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Not as far as I can tell. Actually the best historical example I can think of is Peter Shore, but he was Labour.

Good point - although Shore was a lot more leftwing on economic issues than Bonkers is today. Hitchens is actually probably the British political figure whose ideology is closest to mine, except he is non-interventionist in foreign policy I think.

Hitchens doesn't talk about economics much but insofar as I've heard him do so he moans about deindustrialisation and "wage slavery" which suggests he is fairly left-leaning.

[Geoffrey Howe]

99 rebels on vaccine passports, including Louie French, elected at the Bexley by-election; and Stephen Hammond, one of the 21 Brexit rebels all those years ago...

[TheTide]

Not as far as I can tell. Actually the best historical example I can think of is Peter Shore, but he was Labour.

Good point - although Shore was a lot more leftwing on economic issues than Bonkers is today. Hitchens is actually probably the British political figure whose ideology is closest to mine, except he is non-interventionist in foreign policy I think.

Hitchens doesn't talk about economics much but insofar as I've heard him do so he moans about deindustrialisation and "wage slavery" which suggests he is fairly left-leaning.

He calls himself a social democrat.

[CumbrianLefty]

99 rebels on vaccine passports, including Louie French, elected at the Bexley by-election; and Stephen Hammond, one of the 21 Brexit rebels all those years ago...

102 Tories voting against some aspect of the measures overall.

Plus smaller Labour rebellions (especially on the NHS staff vote)

Two opposition front benchers quit over this - any Tories?

[EastAnglianLefty]

99 rebels on vaccine passports, including Louie French, elected at the Bexley by-election; and Stephen Hammond, one of the 21 Brexit rebels all those years ago...

102 Tories voting against some aspect of the measures overall.

Plus smaller Labour rebellions (especially on the NHS staff vote)

Two opposition front benchers quit over this - any Tories?

Laurence Robertson was fired as unpaid trade envoy to Angola and Zambia for defying the whip. Nobody with an actual job.

[Blair]

Zahawi is very much the type of dark-horse who could win; supported Brexit, an early backer of Boris, good on TV & a proven record in Government.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324501/Jeremy-Hunt-Nadhim-Zahawi-jostle-poll-position-Tory-succession-race.html

[Torrain]

Zahawi is very much the type of dark-horse who could win; supported Brexit, an early backer of Boris, good on TV & a proven record in Government.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324501/Jeremy-Hunt-Nadhim-Zahawi-jostle-poll-position-Tory-succession-race.html

He's a credible minister, but I still think the party will do what they usually do, and pick someone who's occupied one of the Great Offices of State.

When the dust has settled, I think Zahawi is likely to hold a major office (FCO, Home, or Health if he's unlucky), but unlikely to be PM.

He strikes me as the sort of MP who may run initially, but leave the race early, and whip votes for the eventual winner (see Raab, Javid and Hancock in the 2019 race).

I would be happy to be wrong though (I'd far rather Zahawi than Truss or Raab, for instance), and I often am when it comes to predicting the Tory party these days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss has been given a bit of a poisoned chalice by BoJo, then - though it isn't that hard to see how she *could* turn that to her advantage.

[Torrain]

Truss has been given a bit of a poisoned chalice by BoJo, then - though it isn't that hard to see how she *could* turn that to her advantage.

Yeah - handing an MP a Northern Ireland brief is often little more than political assassination.

My father’s from County Down, just outside of Belfast. When we were discussing Truss’s appointment today, his first comment was essentially “Boris is trying to screw her career then.”

Even if Truss somehow pulls off a deal that keeps both sides happy (slim chance of that), she’s still going to be kept busy enough that it’s harder for her to plan a coherent leadership campaign.

And if she fails, a United Ireland becomes more likely, embarrassing the Tory base and making Truss seem like an implausible leader. (I’d hope it’s beyond Boris to use international borders as bargaining chips in an infra-party squabble, but I wouldn’t put it past him.)

[Blair]

It's all starting to feel very much like May after Meaningful Vote 1.

The briefing overnight was clearly about people making distance & it appears that the backbench rebellion and anger certainly made it harder to do anything.

[Torrain]

Thought I might revive this thread for a wee while. Appreciate that I've posted a lot of tweets and vague speculation about challenges to Johnson in the UK megathread, and thought it might be better to quarantine that in this other, Tory-specific thread, so as not to clog up the main thread.

Given that the leadership situation in the party seems fated to drag on for weeks or months, given Johnson's stubborness, the slow drip of 1922 letters, and glacial pace of the Met investigation, it feels like this thread might be a good place to discuss the party squabbles.

First, I think it might be worth recapping the state of play in the parliamentary party, and the rules that govern a leadership challenge.

The Conservatives won 365 seats in 2019. As of the 1st of February 2022, that number has been reduced to 359, but is expected to return to 360 following the by-election in the seat of the late Sir David Amess. Excluding Amess, the Conservatives have lost 6 seats (but regained one seat in the Hartlepool by-election):

• Anne Marie Morris - Whip suspended for voting against the party on a VAT cut for fuel bills
• Imran Ahmad Khan - Whip suspended after sexual assault charges brought in court
• Rob Roberts  - Whip suspended after independent panel found him guilty of inappropriate sexual activity and harassment
• Dame Cheryl Gillan - died in office, replaced by Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Green
• Owen Paterson - resigned over bribery allegations, replaced by Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan
• Christian Wakeford - defected to Labour, following claims of bullying within the Tory whipping operation, and PartyGate

Leadership challenge and election rules for the Conservative Party are as follows:

_{Credit to the Institute for Government}
Note: 54 MPs required to hit the 15% threshold in this Parliament, and 181 MPs required to survive a confidence vote.

Letters can be submitted anonymously, but some members make a point of submitting publicly to attempt to build momentum for a successful challenge. For a now-ironic example of this, see Jacob Rees-Mogg's public submission of a letter against Theresa May, in 2018.

It's not worth trying to gauge how many anonymous letters have been submitted - given that vague reports of submissions (and on some days, retractions) have become about as regular as work meetings with complementary wine and karaoke in Downing Street.

[Torrain]

Following on from the prior post, here's a list of those who've taken public steps to oppose/undermine Johnson in the past month, and still have a vote in the contest:

• Sir Roger Gale - public submission of 1922 letter, sustained criticism
• Douglas Ross (Scottish Conservatives leader) - public submission of 1922 letter, sustained criticism
• Andrew Bridgen - public submission of 1922 letter, sustained criticism
• Caroline Nokes - public call for resignation, sustained criticism
• David Davis (former Brexit Secretary) - public call for resignation
• Theresa May - sharp criticism within the Commons, has indicated a belief Johnson has either broken his own laws, or acted willfullly ignorant of them (in addition to prior aminosity arising from rivalry over party leadership)
• Andrew Mitchell - public declaration of no-confidence in Johnson
• William Wragg - declared Johnson's position "untenable", called for resignation
• Angela Richardson - resigned from the government (role as Gove's PPS) in protest over the scandal, has published statement explaining this resignation that directly rebukes the government
• Aaron Bell - blazing criticism of Johnson in the Commons, has spoken strongly in support of Richardson (see above) resigning on principal from the Government.
• Tim Loughton - public call for resignation
• Jeremy Hunt - former rival, current critic as chair of the Health Committee, and openly speculating about his role in a hypothetical leadership election
• Tom Tugendhat - open speculation about succeeding Johnson, all but declared his leadership campaign in an interview with Times Radio (the Times' audio outlet) this week
• Sir Charles Walker - has asked Johnson to resign, while leaving the decision with him
• Peter Aldous - public submission of 1922 letter
• Tobias Ellwood - public submission of 1922 letter
• Anthony Mangnal - public submission of 1922 letter
• Gary Streeter  - public submission of 1922 letter

Numerous outlets, from the Financial Times to the BBC have suggested that an additional four ministers have laid the groundwork for serious leadership campaigns, (Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Nadhim Zahawi, Sajid Javid, and Penny Mordaunt), but it feels premature to include them on this list, while they remain publicly loyal.

This post will be updated alongside submission of further confidence letters etc

[Cassius]

I believe that Peter Aldous has also submitted a letter now.

[Torrain]

New this morning: Tobias Ellwood has confirmed he will be sending a letter to the 1922 committee.

Odd wrinkle is that it sounds like he wants Johnson to pull the same move Major did in 1995, (calling a vote against himself!), in order to determine whether support exists for his premiership.

It’s not covered in the clip below, but later in the Sky News interview, Ellwood seems to credit Johnson’s Saville comments as part of the issue that pushed him over the edge. Incredible how even when ostensibly defending himself, Johnson opens up new political wounds for himself.

 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1488797166755794947?s=20&t=VOrHmSIHzfZVXj...

[Conservatopia]

Mere speculation of course but my estimation is that the true number of letters is roughly 175% of the public ones.  So for every 3 public letters there are about 2 private ones.  This would mean there are about 27 letters which sounds about right.

[Torrain]

The monthly ConservativeHome poll of party member’s approval of cabinet members has been released.

Notably, Liz Truss has been dethroned for the first time in a year, by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, while Johnson has slid further into the red. Sunak sits pretty low, likely as a result of the continued tax-and-spend direction the government has indicated. JRM has fallen from fifth to near the bottom, and his fall in support over the past month is only challenged by the Chief Whip. It’s not all good news for the rebels though. Douglas Ross’ approval has fallen significantly since leading the Scottish Conservatives in calls for Johnson’s resignation.


Polling (even polls released today) continue to show Truss narrowly leading Sunak, with various other runners and riders lagging behind. But the rise of personal support for Ben Wallace makes me wonder whether he could enter the conversation as a May-style consensus candidate, should a leadership election arise.

[Torrain]

Another letter has been sent - the third in 24 hours:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1488887664493445125?ref_src=tw...

Worth noting that Magnall is a 2019-intake MP, but represents a safe seat that has elected Conservatives in basically increasing margins since 1997. So less likely to be motivated by preservation of his seat than preservation of the party writ-large.

For those playing the ‘Tory factions’ game, Magnall is close to the centre, having authored papers for the ‘One Nation Conservatives’ caucus, and is opposed to aid cuts.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How long is a letter valid ? and what is the proccese of withdrawing a letter ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Mere speculation of course but my estimation is that the true number of letters is roughly 175% of the public ones.  So for every 3 public letters there are about 2 private ones.  This would mean there are about 27 letters which sounds about right.

Still sceptical that we will reach the magic number before the May elections - not least because some MPs may still be intending to deliberately hold back until after then.

(to answer the just posted query - letters remain "live" indefinitely once they are sent in, until that particular leader's tenure ends or there is an actual confidence vote; not sure about the precise way a letter is "withdrawn" but that has definitely happened during this and previous leaderships)

[Torrain]

How long is a letter valid ? and what is the proccese of withdrawing a letter ?

Since Sir Graham Brady became chairman of the 1922 Committee, letters remain active indefinitely, unless a member actively withdraws it, or said member leaves the Parliamentary Party (through suspension, resignation, death or defection). Previously a letter was valid for one year, and then lapsed, according to this report from the New Statesman, from around the time May’s leadership troubles.

It’s unclear whether a letter can be verbally withdrawn, or if a second letter stating an updated position must be sent. If I come across a better answer to that question, I’ll update this post.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How long is a letter valid ? and what is the proccese of withdrawing a letter ?

Since Sir Graham Brady became chairman of the 1922 Committee, letters remain active indefinitely, unless a member actively withdraws it, or said member leaves the Parliamentary Party (through suspension, resignation, death or defection). Previously a letter was valid for one year, and then lapsed, according to this report from the New Statesman, from around the time May’s leadership troubles.

It’s unclear whether a letter can be verbally withdrawn, or if a second letter stating an updated position must be sent. If I come across a better answer to that question, I’ll update this post.

Hmm. given that physical letters are accepted with the only authentication being a signature i'm suprised some pranksters hasn't tried to forge MP letters to trigger it.