Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Bacon King]

CC previously ruled out any cooperation with governments containing either Vox or Sumar, but now they are conditionally walking back that hardline stance and leaving the door open for negotiation with Sanchez

The party's elected deputy has now announced she's willing to enter a bilateral negotiation with either side. She still makes it clear that her party continues to maintain a great distance from the "extreme right", but now she's acknowledging CC shares common ground with Yolanda Diaz and Sumar (specifically naming a minimum wage law and adjusting pensions for inflation as two occasions where they have worked together in the past)

Not sure how likely this is at all but if CC votes for Sanchez then he only needs Junts to abstain

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

CC would surely be putting the "hero" in "moderate hero" if they actually do it

[Former President tack50]

It seems like new elections are the only realistic outcome. Even if someone cobbles together an investiture, they will not be able to pass any meaningful legislation and will have to deal with mociones de censura from all over. Just need to make sure the electorate aren't too tired after an entire year of elections (28M + 23J + the 2nd GE)

Spanish no-confidence motions are "constructive", not destructive. So in case of a successful Sánchez confidence vote (Feijoo won't have one); Sánchez is remaining in office for as long as he wants theoretically. The alternative is for Feijoo (or whoever succeeds him as PP leader) to somehow convince PNV or Junts to vote for him. Needless to say, I do not think Ayuso will be friends with Puigdemont any time soon, even if at times they have more in common than they think

Even his budget being voted down isn't necessarily a death sentence, Spanish legislation allows for the previous year's bugdet to be renewed if no new budget is in place. Of course in practice, Sánchez would call an election at that point after all his bills are voted down.

[Former President tack50]

CC would surely be putting the "hero" in "moderate hero" if they actually do it

CC have basically no principles whatsoever, they'd prop up a Satan government in Spain if they could profit from it somehow.

For the record, CC mayors in the Canary Islands were elected in this election with both Vox support (Teguise, Lanzarote) and Sumar/Podemos support (San Juan de la Rambla and Güímar, Tenerife)

While local politics in towns with 24k, 5k and 21k inhabitants respectively aren't all that indicative of politics at the national level and can have some odd bedfellows; I think it is clear that CC can really work with everybody.

[DL]

CC would surely be putting the "hero" in "moderate hero" if they actually do it

They are the "canary in the coal mine" (sorry could not resist)

[Battista Minola 1616]

CC would surely be putting the "hero" in "moderate hero" if they actually do it

They are the "canary in the coal mine" (sorry could not resist)

Maybe they can expand on the mainland and form Coalición Asturias in that case.

[MRCVzla]

Two updates respect to regional government formations: PP and Vox reached an agreement in Aragón giving the latter two councilors (including a VP), while in Ceuta, already governed by PP, was an attempt of "grand coalition" between PP and PSOE, rejected by the latter' national direction as they see any future possible pact with "Feijóo's PP"

Any progress in Murcia and Navarre where the clock is ticking for a election repeat as Vox still wants to be part of Lopez Miras' cabinet in Murcia and Navarre' Chivite is depending on either Geroa Bai (to support) and EH Bildu (to abstain or support in case no agreement to GBAI) to renew her term.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Provincial swing map for the election (excluding nationalist parties in the Basque Country and Catalonia):


Trend map:
 

[JimJamUK]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

[Logical]

Long term trends to the right in Andalucia has to be concerning for PSOE and the left.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Did you talk about why Catalan independentist parties passed so badly?

[Zinneke]

Did you talk about why Catalan independentist parties passed so badly?

There was a clear ERC --> PSC transfer (and probably some Junts to PSC too). And also abstention from part of the nationalist vote. Assemblea and I think Omnium too called for boycott. Civil society organisations dedicated to "The Process" [of independence, so no autonomist compromises] are very angry at the political parties, with Junts especially being influenced heavily by them. There's also casual voters for nationalist parties angry at both the Process and the psychodrama of the last years. Lastly issue salience over the question of independence is down a lot. It's still a cleavage for all intents and purposes but I imagine the issue of PP and Vox getting their hands on power was a bigger one overall going into this election. I talked to a previously Barcelona based member of ERC and he said he thinks they suffered from trying to push Trias into the Mayorality because many ERC voters are at odds with the members and joined to the independence struggle to fight austerity etc. And not put in anti-environment, pro-bourgeoisie officials into power.

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is just a theory of mine, but those light red provinces north and east of Madrid are likely to be impacted by brain drain to the capital. And I can see a certain type of C's voter who voted for them in 2019 because they are quite pissed with the assymetric nature of Spanish federalism but not enough to flag shag for Vox or PP (whose Madrid administration basically siphons all their talent). Back to PSOE they go...

But then there are also very regional trends...maybe some headlines about PP-Vox administrations passing the usual stuff made these voters think twice about it. Maybe also the holiday season meaning you might get some strange trends related to those who don't bother much with politics not turning up.

[Lumine]

Vox has seemingly softened its stance and offered to vote in favor of a Feijoo government without taking part in it (so no cabinet participation, as they demanded before). Feijoo then proceded to try and renegotiate with PNV... and got the door slammed on his face again.

Sánchez, in the meantime, is very much taking his time, not having even started the round of negotiations while the parties start to pile up their demands.

It's going to be a fascinating few weeks, that's for sure.

[Former President tack50]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

The Castille-Leon ones might be explained by a fairly unpopular regional coalition between PP and Vox maybe? Castille-Leon is incredibly conservative and it's unlikely that they'll be voted out, but I could see that making the region trend left (and indeed, Castille-Leon's very slow lurch left is one of the most bizarre things in Spanish politics these days to me, even if it's flown under the radar)

Cantabria I don't really have an explanation, but PRC ran in 2019 and didn't in 2023, so it probably just depends on how you tabulate PRC. If Mimoha is placing PRC on the right on account of voting against Sánchez in 2019, then that's the simple explanation

[Former President tack50]

Long term trends to the right in Andalucia has to be concerning for PSOE and the left.

Yeah, these trends basically ensure that the left's strategy for the forseeable future is going to be "keep it close nation-wide and run up the score big time in Catalonia". They've basically gone from two big voter bases (Andalucia and Catalonia) to one.

Like the only positive trends outside of Catalonia are Castille-Leon (which is genuinely and very bizarrely trending left, but is so incredibly conservative it's unlikely to flip any time soon) and the Canary Islands, the only true silver lining.

[Former President tack50]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is just a theory of mine, but those light red provinces north and east of Madrid are likely to be impacted by brain drain to the capital. And I can see a certain type of C's voter who voted for them in 2019 because they are quite pissed with the assymetric nature of Spanish federalism but not enough to flag shag for Vox or PP (whose Madrid administration basically siphons all their talent). Back to PSOE they go...

But then there are also very regional trends...maybe some headlines about PP-Vox administrations passing the usual stuff made these voters think twice about it. Maybe also the holiday season meaning you might get some strange trends related to those who don't bother much with politics not turning up.

While a decent explanation, I don't agree with it the first paragraph. Remember that in 2019, if anything, Cs was more pro-centralism than PP, not less! Furthermore, those central rural provinces were some of the ones Cs did worst in (remember Cs was a very urban party). The phenomenon you mention could work had the "España Vaciada" movement taken off, but it didn't.

The 2nd paragraph is a lot more relevant. Castille-Leon is the only region where Vox has properly been in power for more than a handful of weeks, and they've had time to develop their policies there (and have screwed up for a bit). So I could see voters there being more afraid of a Feijoo-Abascal coalition at the national level than elsewhere in the country.

Castille-Leon's premier Mañueco is going to be up for reelection in 2026. I can kinda see him lose if Feijoo is PM, but it'd certainly be a very uphill battle. Castille-Leon is basically the heartland of old-school, traditional Spanish conservatism, and I'm pretty sure it has held the title of "most conservative region" multiple times. Of course if Sánchez is PM then the left has absolutely no chances.

[Zinneke]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is just a theory of mine, but those light red provinces north and east of Madrid are likely to be impacted by brain drain to the capital. And I can see a certain type of C's voter who voted for them in 2019 because they are quite pissed with the assymetric nature of Spanish federalism but not enough to flag shag for Vox or PP (whose Madrid administration basically siphons all their talent). Back to PSOE they go...

But then there are also very regional trends...maybe some headlines about PP-Vox administrations passing the usual stuff made these voters think twice about it. Maybe also the holiday season meaning you might get some strange trends related to those who don't bother much with politics not turning up.

While a decent explanation, I don't agree with it the first paragraph. Remember that in 2019, if anything, Cs was more pro-centralism than PP, not less! Furthermore, those central rural provinces were some of the ones Cs did worst in (remember Cs was a very urban party). The phenomenon you mention could work had the "España Vaciada" movement taken off, but it didn't.

I agree, I think people switching for the dogmatic centralism of C's to PSOE is a bit of a stretch but one thing Cs tapped into was the idea that the Communities system in general was unfair to places like Castile-Leon, Cantabria, etc. Basically that the autonomies ensured that some regions were more equal than others. PSOE used to tow that line a lot in Andalusia too.

[icc]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

It's important to remember here that Spain's decentralisation means that Autonomous Communities are liable to swing on 'local' factors as well as national - we're obviously not talking about Canada levels of disconnected-ness, but if you're just looking at demographics then an important part of the picture is missing. As such, the similarity of the north central provinces is likely that they are part of Castilla y León rather than some demographic peculiarity (and in Cantabria the reason is clearly the fact that the PRC didn't run this time, so isn't comparing like with like - there are similar issues in Soria, Teruel, Melilla, León).

This is particularly obvious in Andalucía. As I wrote somewhere earlier in the thread, PSOE doesn't have a problem with 'demographics like those in Andalucía', it has a problem with the Andalucía Autonomous Community. It's pretty clear that a chunk of the PSOE vote here was basically built on clientelist networks which have decayed / disappeared with their loss of power in the region. Combined with a popular PP government, the local Socialist branch looks to be unsure of what to do.

Also, just to note on the trend map: this isn't actually very useful to analyse the results. It's impossible to say if Cataluña is trending left compared with Spain as a whole, because the battle is a totally different one. The PSC is gaining votes from nationalists, not from the right. Cataluña and the Basque Country (plus to a lesser extent the other provinces mentioned in the first paragraph) mean that this trend analysis doesn't really work. Maybe if nationalists were included in the left block it would be slightly more meaningful (though there'd still be other issues)?

[Former President tack50]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is particularly obvious in Andalucía. As I wrote somewhere earlier in the thread, PSOE doesn't have a problem with 'demographics like those in Andalucía', it has a problem with the Andalucía Autonomous Community. It's pretty clear that a chunk of the PSOE vote here was basically built on clientelist networks which have decayed / disappeared with their loss of power in the region. Combined with a popular PP government, the local Socialist branch looks to be unsure of what to do.

While I mostly agree with you, I will contest this paragraph. It is true that the collapse of PSOE has been most felt in Andalucia (which should not be disregarded in its impact, we are talking about the largest community in the country, home to about 1 in every 5 Spaniards!) but there has certainly been a decline of PSOE in "Communities with demographics similar to Andalucia", which really means 2: Extremadura and to a lesser extent, Castille-La Mancha. Both have seen a decline in the left wing vote just as severe as Andalucía's, but it's flown under the radar and isn't as reflected in regional or even local results

Regarding Extremadura, do not let the 2023 party map fool you. PSOE narrowly did win Extremadura, but the right adds up to a majority there. That comes down to Sumar being pretty much irrelevant as we are talking about arguably the most rural region of Spain. However the right has clearly been gaining ground. A way of looking at it is that the 2023 regional election was the very first time the right has ever added up to a majority there. Even in the 2011 rout, PSOE and IU added to a majority, IU just decided to back PP over PSOE there.

Castille-La Mancha is a similar story, just starting from a much more conservative base. Unlike the other two, Castille-La Mancha has never leaned left wing at the national level, at least not since the Felipe González years. However, it seems to have followed similar trends but from a lower baseline of support, and now is arguably one of the most conservative regions of Spain.

Indeed, a very surprising development of this (combined with CyL's mild trend left I mentioned earlier) is that Castille-La Mancha is now the more conservative of the two Castilles! It also sees much more support for Vox than Castille-Leon, and is apparently one of Vox's strongest regions. This in spite of CLM only ever being ruled by PP for one term (2011-15) while CyL is the exact opposite (only PSOE term being 1983-87); with PSOE's branch there even being able to withstand May's right wing landslide.

The strong Vox result I think mostly comes from the fact that parts of Castille-La Mancha are now acting as exurbs of Madrid, but the general trend right still applies. Provinces like Albacete or Ciudad Real, completely free of any Madrid influence and closer to Andalucía, are trending right all by themselves.

Perhaps the trends are a bit more muted than in Andalucia for a variety of reasons (we are talking about much more rural places, and PSOE-A's image is probably much more tarnished than that of the Extremadura or Castille-La Mancha branches). But they are there.

From my understanding, beyond the clientelism, the PSOE voter in those regions was a kind of voter that was very much very economically progressive, and could even live with socially progressive policies; but was also very much "culturally Spanish" and genuinely feels threatened by concessions to peripheral separatists.

[icc]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is particularly obvious in Andalucía. As I wrote somewhere earlier in the thread, PSOE doesn't have a problem with 'demographics like those in Andalucía', it has a problem with the Andalucía Autonomous Community. It's pretty clear that a chunk of the PSOE vote here was basically built on clientelist networks which have decayed / disappeared with their loss of power in the region. Combined with a popular PP government, the local Socialist branch looks to be unsure of what to do.

While I mostly agree with you, I will contest this paragraph. It is true that the collapse of PSOE has been most felt in Andalucia (which should not be disregarded in its impact, we are talking about the largest community in the country, home to about 1 in every 5 Spaniards!) but there has certainly been a decline of PSOE in "Communities with demographics similar to Andalucia", which really means 2: Extremadura and to a lesser extent, Castille-La Mancha. Both have seen a decline in the left wing vote just as severe as Andalucía's, but it's flown under the radar and isn't as reflected in regional or even local results

I should clarify - there has been a slow shift where different parts of Spain (Cataluña and País Vasco excepted) are voting more similarly to each other – so a right shift in the south and a left shift in the north – but this is unrelated to the left’s current travails in Andalucía.

Nb: There also seems to be a much stronger shift along the coast - most dramatic in Murcia, but also Almería, Alicante, Málaga - which I'm assuming is down to the growth in tourism and resort towns, but I am certainly open to other explanations.

Regarding Extremadura, do not let the 2023 party map fool you. PSOE narrowly did win Extremadura, but the right adds up to a majority there. That comes down to Sumar being pretty much irrelevant as we are talking about arguably the most rural region of Spain. However the right has clearly been gaining ground. A way of looking at it is that the 2023 regional election was the very first time the right has ever added up to a majority there. Even in the 2011 rout, PSOE and IU added to a majority, IU just decided to back PP over PSOE there.

Extremadura has been competitive at national elections for a while. It has slowly shifted right, but slowly. It was over 10% left of the country as a whole in the 80s, down to ~7% in the early noughties and ~3.5-5% since 2015. 2023 was a record low difference (1.9%) but when you consider how much Cataluña skews this (and, yes, I'm sure the PP's Castilian nationalist campaign saw them pick up support also), it isn't a major shift.

Compare this to Andalucía, which was slightly more left wing but followed a very similar trajectory until 2016 (after which they lost power regionally). Since then Andalucía has rapidly moved from 7% to the left of the nation to just 1.4% to the left. Obviously there is the same Catalan issue, but this is a much more major and obvious shift than elsewhere.

Indeed, a very surprising development of this (combined with CyL's mild trend left I mentioned earlier) is that Castille-La Mancha is now the more conservative of the two Castilles! It also sees much more support for Vox than Castille-Leon, and is apparently one of Vox's strongest regions. This in spite of CLM only ever being ruled by PP for one term (2011-15) while CyL is the exact opposite (only PSOE term being 1983-87); with PSOE's branch there even being able to withstand May's right wing landslide.

This isn't really true. Both the left and right 'blocs' did better in CLM than CyL this time (I'd have thought due to the array of fairly strong regionalists running in CyL - Soria Ya, Por Ávila, UPL) and the left outperformed by more.

The strong Vox result I think mostly comes from the fact that parts of Castille-La Mancha are now acting as exurbs of Madrid, but the general trend right still applies. Provinces like Albacete or Ciudad Real, completely free of any Madrid influence and closer to Andalucía, are trending right all by themselves.

This I do basically agree with - the 'dormitory town' trend has definitely helped the right, especially Vox, in Toledo and Guadalajara.

Albacete etc. are moving very slowly right in the same way as Extremadura (and, yes, this is happening in Andalucía too), but this is not the same as the way Andalucía has dropped off a cliff for the left since they lost power regionally.

[MRCVzla]

Some updates, the first one is "shocking", current Vox parliamentary spokeperson Ivan Espinosa de los Monteros is leaving the party' direction and will not take his seat (he remains in the party after all), aludes personal and family reasons, seems disappointed by the election result and some journalists say could may "radicalize" the party as IEDLM seems to be in the "liberal" pro-NATO/zionist wing of the party and could be a "victory" for the more radical wing (leaning pro-Russia) were belongs the current party spokeperson MEP Jorge Buxadé.

The second news is, ongoing Speaker of the Congress Meritxell Batet it's not seeking reelection in the Speakership, also aluding personal reasons, as she will not be the PSOE candidate in the now crucial Speaker vote on the opening session of August 17, crucial as may determinate the likeness of Feijóo or Sánchez to be nominated first for the Investiture vote in their search of "workable" majorities (once again, PP still courts PNV votes and once again are being rejected for the basques).

Last one related to the GE final results, the JEC denied the PSOE recourse about recounting 30.000 null votes in Madrid in a attempt to overturn the swing 16th/137th PP seat gained after the abroad postal CERA vote. Final results are more likely to be published in the BOE around the week.

In regional goverment formation, finally there's agreement in Navarre between PSN-PSOE, Geroa Bai and Contigo/Zurekin (UP/Sumar regional branch) to renew Maria Chivite' government, like 2019, she will depend on the abstention of EH Bildu.

[palandio]

Maybe this is just me as a foreigner applying commonplaces to a situation where they may not apply, but Southern Spain trending right and Northern Spain trending (slightly) left does not surprise me for the following reasons:

Southern Spain was dominated by large agricultural estates and numerically by landless farmworkers, whereas in Northern Spain (and particularly Galicia, I think) smallholders dominated. This is the main explanation why the South voted for the Left and the North for the Right. The importance of agriculture (at least with respect to the voting workforce) is now only a fraction of what it was in the past. Therefore the cleavage lives on only in the form of political tradition and inertia, but can be supplanted by more salient cleavages. A rural area in the South and in the North nowadays have a priori much more in common than they had in the past, and it should not surprise that their voting patterns are becoming more similar.

There are certain factors that can work in favor of eroding inherited political traditions or against it. Societal and demographic change works in favor, e.g. in coastal regions like pointed out by icc. Political polarization works in favor, and in Spain polarization seems to be bigger than for example in Germany, where the CDU's and the SPD's absolute strongholds lie directly next to each other and are hard to distinguish from each other apart from their religious denomination. New cleavages can accelerate the erosion of older cleavages.

I think that the issue brought up by tack, i.e. a reaction against peripheral nationalism could play a role in being a new cleavage. My impression is that this reaction in the poorer regions may be less motivated by feeling particularly 'culturally Spanish', but by a feeling that peripheral nationalism is egoistic and maybe also by a feeling of being particularly affected due to recent emigration of e.g. Andalusians to e.g. Catalonia.

Apart from that it has already mentioned above that processes like this are usually not uniform in space and time.

[Skye]

Palencia's swing may have had to do with the Vamos Palencia party, which is as you might have guessed a local party which ran in the municipal elections, it got 2% of the vote and might have disproportionately hurt the right.

For Valladolid, the left straight up improved its results in the city, which was something I did not expect.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Palencia's swing may have had to do with the Vamos Palencia party, which is as you might have guessed a local party which ran in the municipal elections, it got 2% of the vote and might have disproportionately hurt the right.

For Valladolid, the left straight up improved its results in the city, which was something I did not expect.

Localist provincial parties disproportionately hurt the left tho (you can see this in how Soria tacked strongly to the right thanks to Soria Ya running, while Teruel trended left as Teruel Existe lost support), so you could reasonably argue the swing would've been bigger without their presence.

Castille and Leon's moderate trend towards the left can be explained mainly by local factors rather than national ones. The region being in decline after decades of PP government has generated fatigue with the right in a similar but more limited way as in Andalusia with PSOE and the left (maybe this could accelerate under the next national right-wing govt).

Plus the trend is largely driven by provincial capitals, which in recent years have seen popular PSOE-led administrations govern them, with these holding up relatively well (while mostly losing, albeit narrowly) in May's local elections.

[Velasco]

This is particularly obvious in Andalucía. As I wrote somewhere earlier in the thread, PSOE doesn't have a problem with 'demographics like those in Andalucía', it has a problem with the Andalucía Autonomous Community. It's pretty clear that a chunk of the PSOE vote here was basically built on clientelist networks which have decayed / disappeared with their loss of power in the region. Combined with a popular PP government, the local Socialist branch looks to be unsure of what to do.

Patronage networks can't explain the PSOE's long rule in Andalusia, for they did never cover a large proportion of the population (the famous and controversial PER rural subsidy only benefitted a few thousands, in case you consider it part of a patronage network). Andalusia's shift to the right is probably explained by a combination of demographic changes and fatigue after decades of PSOE governments. The PSOE's eñectoral machine came into decline as the corruption scandals eroded regional governments over the last two decades. This process of erosion has been gradual and I remember perfectly some people saying there were signs of decline after the 2008 general elections (compensated by ^PSOE's landslides in Catalonia and the Basque Country). Many Andalusians voted for the PSOE because they saw it as a "natural party of government", but it's clear that after the change of regional government they turned to the PP.Anyway, leaving aside other factors like the crisis in the relationship with Catalonia, I think demography plays a key role here: prevalence of tourism and greenhouse agriculture in coastal areas vs decline of traditional agriculture inland.

Corruption scandals eroded heavily the PP regional government in the Valencian Community, favoring a politicall change that lasted 8 years. However, other scandals in Madrid, Castilla-León and Murcia didn't have the same consequence