Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[robocop]

Feijoo has no charisma at all and never looked like a leader.

Isabel Diaz Ayuso as leader would work and maybe, hopefully, she would create a coalition government with VOX if possible.

I bet we will get a PSOE minority government for now that will last 12 months absolute maximum when it loses a confidence vote. With Diaz-Ayuso as PP leader then maybe they can succeed and get a VOX coalition.

[Хahar 🤔]

The comparison of Boks & C's is not accurate to real life, but I can understand how you got there if you consume only left-wing Spanish content. It's true that they are pro-Spain, but their anti-nationalist ideology was mainly in their pursuit of Spain being just 1 member of a larger European federal state. C's was liberal and even left-leaning at the beginning, and they won their best performance when they cast themselves as the centrist pragmatic liberals in the room willing to deal with anybody. They turned rightwards when the Catalan crisis happened, and immediately began to lose their support outside of Catalunya (though that didn't last long either), leading to their current situation where they didn't even bother competing in the 23J election. 

Is it all that relevant what the party was at the beginning? Certainly a lot of Ciudadanos voters ten years ago perceived the party as liberal and anti-nationalist, but my understanding is that in the late 2010s when Rivera got the idea that he could supplant PP his party's rhetoric became pretty straightforwardly right-wing nationalist. Certainly that's why all the voters left.

[MaxQue]

Feijoo has no charisma at all and never looked liek a leader.

Isabel Diaz Ayuso as leader would work and maybe, hopefully, she would create a coalition government with VOX if possible.

I bet we will get a PSOE minority government for now that will last 12 months absolute maximum when it loses a confidence vote. With Diaz-Ayuso as PP leader then maybe they can succeed and get a VOX coalition.

And when that doesn't happen, you'll do what you did in another thread and accuse PSOE of voter fraud.

[Former President tack50]

The comparison of Boks & C's is not accurate to real life, but I can understand how you got there if you consume only left-wing Spanish content. It's true that they are pro-Spain, but their anti-nationalist ideology was mainly in their pursuit of Spain being just 1 member of a larger European federal state. C's was liberal and even left-leaning at the beginning, and they won their best performance when they cast themselves as the centrist pragmatic liberals in the room willing to deal with anybody. They turned rightwards when the Catalan crisis happened, and immediately began to lose their support outside of Catalunya (though that didn't last long either), leading to their current situation where they didn't even bother competing in the 23J election. 

Is it all that relevant what the party was at the beginning? Certainly a lot of Ciudadanos voters ten years ago perceived the party as liberal and anti-nationalist, but my understanding is that in the late 2010s when Rivera got the idea that he could supplant PP his party's rhetoric became pretty straightforwardly right-wing nationalist. Certainly that's why all the voters left.

I mean, it is worth noting that even at their most right wing, Cs was most definitely understood by Spanish society to be more left wing than PP; certainly more liberal than PP.

The only exception being them being a bit harsher than PP with regards to peripheral nationalism. However even then they were nowhere near Vox. They may have opposed the Basque economic agreement, but they never questioned the existance of the Autonomous Communities in the first place for example.

I've seen some arguments on Catalan nationalist media making an argument for Cs being to the right of PP, but tbh in my opinion they are quite flimsy arguments and focus almost exclusively on the separatist issue (where Cs was a bit harsher but it's not like PP was particularly soft!)

If Cs for whatever reason was still around and Vox did not exist; a PP-Cs-PNV deal wouldn't be impossible like it is with Vox around, though it would be very hard.

In any case, it seems unreasonable to call Cs a far right party in the slightest. Even claiming they were to the right of PP requires a hyper-focus on the Catalonia culture wars. I can buy they were only marginally to the left of PP late; after all they collapsed for a reason. But still

[Bacon King]

The Bureau of the Congress of Deputies has officially granted ERC and Junts their own parliamentary groups thanks to a deal that PSOE and Sumar made with those two parties.

Certain thresholds must be met to form a parliamentary group: 15 members in total; or at least 5 members from lists that won either 5% nationwide, or an average of 15% in the constituencies where they ran. This latter requirement granted Bildu and PNV their own groups, but both Catalan parties fell short.

To bring ERC and Junts up to 15% each Sumar let ERC temporarily borrow two of their members, and PSOE loaned 4 to Junts (afterwards the people from Sumar and PSOE simply rejoined their own party parliamentary groups). This has been done several times before in various circumstances, but nevertheless PP and Vox both spoke against it.

It's a big deal for a party to have its own parliamentary group: 42,570 Euros per month in funding (or more, based on size), guaranteed placement on every committee, full privileges during debates, the right to introduce their own legislation, and in the next election their participation in televised debates is now guaranteed



Similar deals are planned in the Senate where the rules are simpler: 10 Senators for a group to form, and it's abolished if it falls below 6. ERC doesn't need help because they always form a shared group with EH Bildu; instead in the upper chamber it's PNV and Junts who need to borrow members. This deal is facing resistance from the Senate's PP leadership though, who are waiting on a report they've commissioned to determine whether it's actually legal (they were not concerned with the legality of these arrangements in the previous Senate, when they allowed C's to borrow a PP Senator)

[Bacon King]

btw its kind of wild that PP claims to be genuinely courting the support of PNV right now despite simultaneously going out of their way to screw over the PNV Senate delegation

[Velasco]

Cs had a moment of glory in the months between December 2017 (Cs came first in Catalan elections, even though Inés Arrimadas couldn't govern) and June 2018 (Pedro Sánchez wins the no confidence motion).The Catalan cobflict reached its peak in September/October 2017. Its vocal opposition to separatism boosted Cs popularity and the party was ocassionally polling first during those months between 2017 and 2018. The famous picture at Colon Square in Madrid featuring Casado, Rivera and Abascal was the beginning of the end, in my opinion. Pedro Sánchez saw the opportunity and called snap elections that took place in April 2019. Still, Rivera had the chance of becoming Deputy PM through a deal with Sánchez. Cs came very close of surpassing PP as the main party in the right, as it happened with Podemos and PSOE in the left during 2015/2016.  Rivera opted to confront Sánchez and go rightwards. The consequences of Rivera's decisions are well known.

Regarding centralism, I think there exist different kinds. Vox centralism has a reactionary and authoritarian character, while I think Cs was more "jacobin"

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Feijóo se compromete a convocar elecciones en dos años si Sánchez le permite gobernar y ofrece seis pactos de Estado
Feijóo promises to call elections in 2 years if Sánchez allows him to govern and [Feijóo] offers six pactos de Estado*

(* I wasn't sure how to translate "pacto de Estado" but it's basically 6 "bipartisan" (in American terms, I know bipartidismo means something in Spain but that's not what I mean) pieces of legislation that both PP and PSOE can agree on.)

[...] "In this way, the influence sought by the independentista parties would be deactivated and Spain could guarantee equal treatment for Spaniards," PP sources signal.

For this, the candidate to the investiture has asked the PSOE secretary-general to allow his election as President of the Government and to agree to six pactos de Estado in a Legislature which will last 2 years. Facing the "risk" of a general election this January, the 1st-place winner of the most recent election offers a mandate of 24 months to tackle pending reforms and, once that time has passed, to call new elections, unless otherwise agreed between the parties.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Oh and I forgot to include that PSOE immediately rejected this proposal lol.

El PP lamenta el "no es no" de Sánchez a su propuesta y el PSOE lo acusa de "estar pensando en salvar su pellejo"
PP laments the "no means no" of Sánchez to their proposal and PSOE accuses them of "thinking on saving their skins"

El PSOE, sobre la oferta de Feijóo: “Nos ofrece un pacto con Vox para derogar el sanchismo en dos años”
PSOE, on Feijóo's proposal: "They offer us a coalition with Vox to abolish Sanchismo in 2 years"

My favorite quote of this situation came from Pilar Alegría the PSOE spokeswoman: "Ha pasado de querer derogar el sanchismo a rogar al sanchismo" "They have gone from wanting to abolish Sanchismo to begging Sanchismo." Obviously the derogar-a rogar pun works better in Spanish but you get the meaning.

[mileslunn]

Won't happen but PP and PSOE could in theory cut deal where one governs for 2 years and other for 2 years after.  Israel and Ireland had such recently although in both cases same party were part of coalition not rivals although in Ireland, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael usually were and only united as had Sinn Fein as common enemy and not sure Vox is comparable in any way there. 

So in reality, unless either Sanchez or Feijoo can win over one of the smaller parties, second elections look very likely.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Well now that Feijoo has legitimized the Junts and ERC by negotiating with them, it is going to be a lot easier for Sanchez to cut a deal with them and justify it. Even my very conservative grandmother now supports amnesty for the Catalan referendum organizers if it means putting the issue in the past and getting the government moving, and she was a big supporter of Rajoy's crackdown 6 years ago.

[robocop]

Feijoo has no charisma at all and never looked liek a leader.

Isabel Diaz Ayuso as leader would work and maybe, hopefully, she would create a coalition government with VOX if possible.

I bet we will get a PSOE minority government for now that will last 12 months absolute maximum when it loses a confidence vote. With Diaz-Ayuso as PP leader then maybe they can succeed and get a VOX coalition.

And when that doesn't happen, you'll do what you did in another thread and accuse PSOE of voter fraud.

What an absolute dumbass response.

[MRCVzla]

Finally López Miras and the Murcian PP have given in and there will be a coalition government with Vox avoiding an electoral repetition, the deadline to form the autonomous government was set on September 7. This week will be voted the investiture for the re-election of the regional president.

[Mike88]

Finally López Miras and the Murcian PP have given in and there will be a coalition government with Vox avoiding an electoral repetition, the deadline to form the autonomous government was set on September 7. This week will be voted the investiture for the re-election of the regional president.

Another dumb move by PP. With Feijóo's investiture being already a failure, PP could have force a snap election in order to win a majority and "bury" Vox, thus repeating the fate of C's.

[Former President tack50]

Finally López Miras and the Murcian PP have given in and there will be a coalition government with Vox avoiding an electoral repetition, the deadline to form the autonomous government was set on September 7. This week will be voted the investiture for the re-election of the regional president.

Another dumb move by PP. With Feijóo's investiture being already a failure, PP could have force a snap election in order to win a majority and "bury" Vox, thus repeating the fate of C's.

Yeah plus we are talking about Murcia of all places. Even if it somehow backfired, they'd still get the government. The day the right loses there is the day hell freezes over. It's not like Extremadura where it was literally a "once in a lifetime" (for now) majority of only one seat.

[Estrella]

Why did Murcia shift so hard to the right anyway? PSOE used to be pretty strong there — they had a majority throughout the 80s and ruled until 1995.

[DL]

Why did Murcia shift so hard to the right anyway? PSOE used to be pretty strong there — they had a majority throughout the 80s and ruled until 1995.

And Murcia was also. Republican stronghold during the Spanish Civil War

[Velasco]

Why did Murcia shift so hard to the right anyway? PSOE used to be pretty strong there — they had a majority throughout the 80s and ruled until 1995.

And Murcia was also. Republican stronghold during the Spanish Civil War

I don't think Murcia was a left-wing region or a republican stringhold back in the 1930s. Rather, I'd bet Murcia was a rural conservative province with a strong influence of the Catholic church. I would need to check election results in that period, though. The reason why Murcia was one of the last places to fall under Franco's boot in 1939 was merely geographical. Western Andalusia was probably more left-wing (strong socialist and anarchist unions), but it was in the Francoist zone since the beginning of the Civil War in July 1936. Shortly before the end, in early 1939, there was a mutiny prompted by the Franco's Fifth Column at the main naval base of the Spanish Republic located in Cartagena (Murcia region). The consequences of the mutiny were tragic, since the fleet escaped to Tunisia and the ships couldn't be used to help republican refugees to flee Spain. Thousands of republicans were waiting in vain for English ships in Alicante, were cauggt by Franco's troops and sent to concentration camps.

Another question is why Murcia is the most right-wing region nowadays. Murcia is also known as "the Europe's Orchard" and it was a traditional agrarian society with a strong religious influence. Tourism and the xonstruction sector have boomed in the last decades, alongside with the development of greenhouse export agriculture that employs migrant workforce. As it happens in the neighbouring Almería, the municipalities with higher shares of migrant labourers are also the main Vox strongholds. Besides, we have the strong religious background and influential catholic universities. Additionally there's a strong Spanish nationalism in Murcia and a rejection of Catalan separatism (thousands of Murcians migrated to Catalonia in past decades). Probably the reason of the right's strength is a conjunction of these factors and others that I have missed.

 There are also problems related to water supply (conflict with Castilla-La Mancha over the Tajo-Segura water scheme) and a huge ecological catastrophe related to agricultural activity: the "green soap" in the lagoon known as Mar Menor (thoysands of dead fishes)

I

[Velasco]

Former PM José Maria Aznar calls for a "National rebellion" against amnesty laws. Aznar claims Spain is in danger of disappearing

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Why do PP insist on acting like the opposition already? They are still technically up for a vote.

Does not reflect well on their leadership ability and reveals their cynicism (such cynicism which would probably be forgivable if they owned up to the fact they have no chance)

[Peeperkorn]

Many PSOE historical leaders are starting to oppose any potential amnesty deal with the Catalan separatists:

https://efe.com/cataluna/2023-09-08/crece-la-presion-de-socialistas-historicos-contra-la-ley-de-amnistia-que-pide-puigdemont/

[Former President tack50]

Many PSOE historical leaders are starting to oppose any potential amnesty deal with the Catalan separatists:

https://efe.com/cataluna/2023-09-08/crece-la-presion-de-socialistas-historicos-contra-la-ley-de-amnistia-que-pide-puigdemont/

I mean, this really is just the PSOE "old guard" going back to their old habits of critizising Sánchez on the Catalonia issue (and sometimes dealing with Podemos) too softly. People like González, Guerra or Almunia have never been friendly with Sánchez.

Like hell, let's go back to the 2016 PSOE primary! Back then, Susana Díaz had the support of pretty much everyone who had been something at some point in the past; the only former PSOE leader who explicitly backed Sánchez was the only guy who had been in a similar position before (Josep Borrell. Yes, that Josep Borrell)

Some former leaders fell quick after Sánchez, against all odds, made his comeback; most notably former PM Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. But others took a very long time to come back, Felipe González among them. Some doubled down and even got kicked out of the party, like Joaquín Leguina, the only non-PP president of the Madrid region, who is amusingly now an Ayuso fan.

And I say this as someone who is being gradually convinced by their arguments! But let's face it, Felipe González has never been a friend of Pedro Sánchez. This is barely news.

And an internal rebellion ain't going to happen. Now, had Sánchez clearly lost the election (which he almost did!) it'd be another story and I am sure Emiliano García-Page would be taking a good look at  Ferraz street with a knife in his hands. But any such internal rebellion won't happen; only scenario I can see it somehow happen is if somehow Sánchez does push for a Catalan referendum, but that is exceedingly unlikely

[Velasco]

We don't know if PSOE and Junts will reach an agreement on amnesty, nor the terms in which they are negotiating. The extreme discretion and secretism on the PSOE's part are understandable, given that we are in Feijóo's turn and there exists the possibility of a repeat election. I think the policies of the government led by Pedro Sánchez have been successful in de-escalating the political conflict in Catalonia. Moreover, election results and the relatively low attendance to the separatist demonstration on September 11 (Diada: national day of Catalonia) show that the pro-independence movement is losing strength. I was totally in favour of the pardons to the jailed politicians, as the prison sentences were too high for a political crime. Rather than being intolerable concessions to separatism, such measures reveal the strength of Spanish democracy. I have more doubts with regards to amnesty and understand some objections. Socialists would need to explain carefully the terms of the amnesty law, emphasizing the supreme goal of reconciliation and avoiding that amnesty is seen as a legitimation of Puigdemont's past conduct. By the moment Handsome Sánchez has my vote of confidence.

[Velasco]

Yesterday in Madrid the PP held a rally for "egality among Spaniards" and against amnesty laws with the interventions of Aznar, Rajoy, Ayuso and Feijóo. Organizers claim a 60k attendance, but probably they gathered between 30k and 40k at Felipe II Square. The "biggest demonstration in history" was about 5 times smaller than the demonstrations in defence of the public healthcare system in Madrid (more than 200k, but Ayuso won a landslide in regional elections anyway). Besides, PSOE dinosaurs Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra spoke against amnesty. On her part, PP spokeswoman Cuca Gamarra called for the "responsibility" of PSOE members, suggesting that some of them could vote for "the winner of elections" (calling them to betray Sánchez, in other words). Funnily enough, the investiture of Feijóo is tomorrow

https://twitter.com/elmundoes/status/1706006585594511406?t=yR2IJ-seP24Og7xMZHOgS...

[Battista Minola 1616]

It is quite funny that the question of amnesty laws has brought out the likes of Aznar and González, even if it makes sense given how central it is to the modern Spanish state. This makes me wonder, what is their reputation today both among society at large and within their respective parties, especially the more ideological and less moderate factions?