Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

Vox has seemingly softened its stance and offered to vote in favor of a Feijoo government without taking part in it (so no cabinet participation, as they demanded before). Feijoo then proceded to try and renegotiate with PNV... and got the door slammed on his face again.

Sánchez, in the meantime, is very much taking his time, not having even started the round of negotiations while the parties start to pile up their demands.

It's going to be a fascinating few weeks, that's for sure.

The apparent "soft stance" clearly indicates Vox leadership deems the chances of Feijóo are slim. Actually Vox people is very sceptic about the idea of "good socialists" willing to save Spain voting for the man from Galicia

(On a separate note, I'm fascinated by some commentators here and there talking about "moderates" in Vox. Iván Espinosa de los Monteros is anything but a sweet man, I assure you)

[icc]

This is particularly obvious in Andalucía. As I wrote somewhere earlier in the thread, PSOE doesn't have a problem with 'demographics like those in Andalucía', it has a problem with the Andalucía Autonomous Community. It's pretty clear that a chunk of the PSOE vote here was basically built on clientelist networks which have decayed / disappeared with their loss of power in the region. Combined with a popular PP government, the local Socialist branch looks to be unsure of what to do.

Patronage networks can't explain the PSOE's long rule in Andalusia, for they did never cover a large proportion of the population (the famous and controversial PER rural subsidy only benefitted a few thousands, in case you consider it part of a patronage network). Andalusia's shift to the right is probably explained by a combination of demographic changes and fatigue after decades of PSOE governments. The PSOE's eñectoral machine came into decline as the corruption scandals eroded regional governments over the last two decades. This process of erosion has been gradual and I remember perfectly some people saying there were signs of decline after the 2008 general elections (compensated by ^PSOE's landslides in Catalonia and the Basque Country). Many Andalusians voted for the PSOE because they saw it as a "natural party of government", but it's clear that after the change of regional government they turned to the PP.Anyway, leaving aside other factors like the crisis in the relationship with Catalonia, I think demography plays a key role here: prevalence of tourism and greenhouse agriculture in coastal areas vs decline of traditional agriculture inland.

Corruption scandals eroded heavily the PP regional government in the Valencian Community, favoring a politicall change that lasted 8 years. However, other scandals in Madrid, Castilla-León and Murcia didn't have the same consequence

Well, obviously - I never claimed that patronage networks explained the PSOE’s long rule in Andalucía. I am specifically talking about the decay of networks since they lost power in the region. There is obviously gradual demographic change (and / or changes in patterns of support in different demographics), but my comment was specifically in relation to the fact that the PSOE (and wider left) vote has dropped off a cliff since 2018 - which isn’t the case in Extremadura, Castilla-La-Mancha, Murcia, etc.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think you can say that the PSOE's support of a special and generous unemployment insurance system for agricultural workers, who were very concentrated in Andalusia, was a key part of its command of the region's voters. Of course, over time, the importance of this system waned but retirees who once worked in the sector could be counted to vote PSOE based on the large amount of transfers steered towards them in adulthood (and that likely made them wealthier than they otherwise would have been). Today, the share of people in Andalusia who benefitted from this is falling off of a cliff.

A quick summary of the system: agricultural work is quite seasonal and thus agricultural workers tend to experience many more spells of unemployment than other workers. Employment relationships tend to be short, numbered in weeks rather than years. My understanding is that the UI rules for ag. workers in Spain are extremely generous and allow someone to receive UI benefits after performing very little work and for long durations. I think this is obviously problematic and may go a long way towards explaining why Spain had a severe structural unemployment problem in, say, the 1980s.

[Mike88]

The new Congress will convene tomorrow, 17 August, and will elect the President of the Chamber and Vice-Presidents. This will be the first test to forecast who has the edge to form the next government, or not, and as of now neither PP or PSOE have the numbers to elect their candidates.

[MRCVzla]

The new Congress will convene tomorrow, 17 August, and will elect the President of the Chamber and Vice-Presidents. This will be the first test to forecast who has the edge to form the next government, or not, and as of now neither PP or PSOE have the numbers to elect their candidates.

That's right, all is mostly in hands of Puigdemont' Junts demands "comprobable facts" in order to "support" any side, despise he's says not having any confidence on the "mainland" parties. They left all decisions at last minute til' tomorrow. In case of abstention, the sole CC MP could "broke the tie" between blocs, in the weekend, Canarias regional president Clavijo say what they like the PNV to have the Speaker post in order to advocate dialogue between blocs. PP rejected in order to not lose Vox votes.

The candidates by party/bloc for the Speaker post are already known. PSOE will nominate Francina Armengol, former regional president of the Balearic Islands and first-time MP, mostly as a gesture to attract nationalist MPs like Junts (Sánchez is even going too far to the Yolanda Díaz' proposal to include the coofficial languages on the Cortes, extending their use to European institutions), while PP will nominate their current parliamentary spokeperson Cuca Gamarra for Speaker of the Congress and Pedro Rollán as President of the Senate (where they have absolute majority). On the renewal of parliamentary spokepersons, PSOE will mantain Patxi López, Vox chooses Pepa Millán as Espinosa de los Monteros replacement and Sumar picks Marta Lois (close to Díaz), PP will depend on tomorrow vote if Gamarra doesn't get elected.

On autonomic government updates: finally Maria Chivite got her 2nd term on the Navarre regional presidency, as expected with the abstention of EH Bildu on the second vote. Jorge Azcón swear in as Aragón regional president last week with a PP-Vox coalition government with support of the regionalist PAR, only remains Murcia with the risk of going to repeat election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For anyone interested, here is a livestream of the constitutive session of the Chamber of Deputies and Senate

[icc]

Francina Armengol (PSOE) has been elected President of Congress.

She won 178 votes which presumably (voting is secret) means she got the votes of PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Bildu, PNV, BNG and, importantly, Junts.

Vox voted for their own candidate, and the PP candidate was announced as receiving 129 votes. This has caused a bit of confusion, as it is presumed the number was read out wrong, and the PP received 139 (themselves and the single deputies from UPN and CC).

[MRCVzla]

Already been mentioned. Francina Armengol is elected in 1st round with more than absolute majority of 178 votes as the new Speaker of the Congress (XV Legislature), PP's Cuca Gamarra just obtained 139 votes and Vox voted for themselves with Ignacio Gil Lazaro (33 votes). Junts finally inclined in favor to PSOE mostly in order to have (as well with ERC) their own parliamentary group and the reform of the Congress' rules to add the coofficial languages (as the Catalan). Gamarra was supported by her own party PP, UPN and Coalición Canaria (who did not abstain), it seems that PP not reached an agreement with Vox (they thought they had their support guaranteed) and is not going to cede any position (Vice Presidency or Secretary) in the composition of the Congress Bureau, that voting is happening right now, after the 4 VPs and 4 secretaries are elected, Armengol will swear in as Speaker and each one of the 350 MPs will swear or promise to respect the Constitution.

One less stumbling block for Sánchez in order to be nominated to the investiture...

[Velasco]

Fascinating account of the so-called "sanchismo" by the aristocratic right-wing muse Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo. Zapatero is depicted as the man who "reinstated" Bildu, ignoring that ETA was defeated under his rule with Rubalcaba serving as Interior minister

https://twitter.com/cayetanaAT/status/1675807127917527047?t=lkutoIeLUwlZudK43Kl-...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Do we know what Junts (and I guess ERC) are asking for?

[Velasco]

Do we know what Junts (and I guess ERC) are asking for?

Little has surfaced yet, but it's clear that amnesty law will be one of the main demands. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras said yesterday that amnesty is a "red line", while Puigdemont is warning that he has not "returned to the fold"

Regarding the last statement, some people is noting the agreement between PSOE and Junts to elect the Speaker and the Bureau of the Congress implies that right now all parliamentary forces are integrated in the system

Meanwhile the right is in a state of confusion and perplexity,  especially in the PP HQs. The relationship between PP and Vox is an unsolved issue and Feijóo's erratic behaviour reveals the mainstream right lacks a clear strategy (see the Extremadura affair)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amnesty and a new autonomy status for Catalonia seems like the obvious way to put this whole mess behind us. I'm sure the neo-Francoist right will go apoplectic over it, but I'm confident that it would be a political winner for Sanchez in the long run.

[Zinneke]

He cannot promise either anyway, unlike Zapatero. If we just go back to the settlement Zapatero had found it would all be just a fever dream. But the Senate and politicised judiciary will stand in the way, and Sanchez has a wafer thin majority. He cannot promise Junts much.

[Velasco]

The thing is, realistically speaking, I'm not sure that amnesty laws are feasible from a constitutional point of view. However,  I think it's possible to act pragmatically and find legal formulas that allow Puigdemont and the other "exiled" leaders to return. The PSOE-UP government abolished the crime of sedition and issued pardons for Junqueras and the other jailed leaders, so it cannot be said there's no will to solve the political problems. In what concerns a new autonomy statute for Catalonia, both PSOE and Sumar would be happy sponsoring it. The question is that right now ERC and Junts are not willing to accept that solution and demand the indy ref. In any case, my opinion is that favouring the return of Puigdemont et alii would greatly contribute to normalize the political situation in Catalonia favouring the appropiate climate to negotiate political solutions

[MaxQue]

The thing is, realistically speaking, I'm not sure that amnesty laws are feasible from a constitutional point of view. However,  I think it's possible to act pragmatically and find legal formulas that allow Puigdemont and the other "exiled" leaders to return. The PSOE-UP government abolished the crime of sedition and issued pardons for Junqueras and the other jailed leaders, so it cannot be said there's no will to solve the political problems. In what concerns a new autonomy statute for Catalonia, both PSOE and Sumar would be happy sponsoring it. The question is that right now ERC and Junts are not willing to accept that solution and demand the indy ref. In any case, my opinion is that favouring the return of Puigdemont et alii would greatly contribute to normalize the political situation in Catalonia favouring the appropiate climate to negotiate political solutions

That is non realistic, through, because it ignores the Franquist judiciary.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

That is non realistic, through, because it ignores the Franquist judiciary.

If you haven't got the faintest idea of what you are talking about, it is wiser to remain silent rather than make uninformed statements about a foreign country.

[Mike88]

Besides the whole affair of the "declaration" of independence and referendum, Puigdemont also has corruption accusations against him, doesn't he? I recall hearing something about it.

[MaxQue]

That is non realistic, through, because it ignores the Franquist judiciary.

If you haven't got the faintest idea of what you are talking about, it is wiser to remain silent rather than make uninformed statements about a foreign country.

Didn't they timed some judicial decisions about Catalonia at critical times to hamper the government?

[Velasco]

Besides the whole affair of the "declaration" of independence and referendum, Puigdemont also has corruption accusations against him, doesn't he? I recall hearing something about it.

Puigdemont is accused of disobedience and misappropriation, as far as I recall. The charge of misappropiation is related to the alleged diversion of public funds to the illegal referendum that took place in 2017. Aside from that,  I haven't heard about corruption issues related to him

The politician who is convicted for corruption is Junts chairwoman Laura Borràs, former speaker of the Catalan Parliament. Borrás was sentenced to 4 years of prison for prevarication and falsehood, committed when she presided the Institute of the Catalan Letters (apparently she modified contracts to benefit a friend). She has appealed the sentence in order to avoid prison. Junts claims that she's victim of lawfare and demands an amnesty law that exonerates her.

Those pending legal causes affecting Puigdemont and the other "exiled" politicians are a very complex issue to solve,  on the other hand

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

That is non realistic, through, because it ignores the Franquist judiciary.

If you haven't got the faintest idea of what you are talking about, it is wiser to remain silent rather than make uninformed statements about a foreign country.

Didn't they timed some judicial decisions about Catalonia at critical times to hamper the government?

The current Constitutional Court, which would rule on the constitutionality of an amnesty law, couldn't have a more government-friendly majority.

And besides, there is a strong legal basis for such a law being constitutional, since the Constitution explictly forbids general pardons granted by the Government, but is silent on amnesty laws sanctioned by Parliament.

[Velasco]

And besides, there is a strong legal basis for such a law being constitutional, since the Constitution explictly forbids general pardons granted by the Government, but is silent on amnesty laws sanctioned by Parliament.

Ah maybe. I'm not sure about that, since I'm not an expert in legal matters and have heard different opinions. What’s the difference between amnesty and general pardon?

[Former President tack50]

That is non realistic, through, because it ignores the Franquist judiciary.

If you haven't got the faintest idea of what you are talking about, it is wiser to remain silent rather than make uninformed statements about a foreign country.

Didn't they timed some judicial decisions about Catalonia at critical times to hamper the government?

The current Constitutional Court, which would rule on the constitutionality of an amnesty law, couldn't have a more government-friendly majority.

And besides, there is a strong legal basis for such a law being constitutional, since the Constitution explictly forbids general pardons granted by the Government, but is silent on amnesty laws sanctioned by Parliament.

For the record, something people tend to ignore is that back in 2010, the court ruling regarding the Catalan statute was done by a progressive majority too!

To be precise it was a 6-5 ruling; with one of the conservative judges "switching sides" and concurring with the progressives (should sound familiar to any US posters ). The ruling could have been a lot stricter.

Also it is good to speak about a "new statute"; but what would said statute contain? What would be the novelties that would placate the separatists? And would it even pass constitutional muster? (Even a relatively mild cut like in 2010 might be enough to throw the region in flames again)

[Former President tack50]

And besides, there is a strong legal basis for such a law being constitutional, since the Constitution explictly forbids general pardons granted by the Government, but is silent on amnesty laws sanctioned by Parliament.

Ah maybe. I'm not sure about that, since I'm not an expert in legal matters and have heard different opinions. What’s the difference between amnesty and general pardon?

My understanding is that it is more symbolic than practical. An amnesty is a sort of recognition that Spain did something wrong (the last one was to victims of Francoist prosecutions after all, in pre-constitutional times); while a pardon is just that, a pardon.

I think in practical terms an amnesty would allow Puigdemont to run for office, while someone like Junqueras still is barred from office. An amnesty also erases the previous crimes, while a pardon leaves them and the sentence can be resumed if they make another crime (Junqueras is in a sort of "probation")

[Mike88]

Besides the whole affair of the "declaration" of independence and referendum, Puigdemont also has corruption accusations against him, doesn't he? I recall hearing something about it.

Puigdemont is accused of disobedience and misappropriation, as far as I recall. The charge of misappropiation is related to the alleged diversion of public funds to the illegal referendum that took place in 2017. Aside from that,  I haven't heard about corruption issues related to him

The politician who is convicted for corruption is Junts chairwoman Laura Borràs, former speaker of the Catalan Parliament. Borrás was sentenced to 4 years of prison for prevarication and falsehood, committed when she presided the Institute of the Catalan Letters (apparently she modified contracts to benefit a friend). She has appealed the sentence in order to avoid prison. Junts claims that she's victim of lawfare and demands an amnesty law that exonerates her.

Those pending legal causes affecting Puigdemont and the other "exiled" politicians are a cery complex issue to solve,  on the other hand

Ah, right. I knew that someone in Junts had corruption issues, but wasn't sure if it was Puigdemont or someone else.

I agree that the case is very, very complex and simple solutions are not the answer, especially because of how polarized Spain is right now. Any major reform, from either side, will be rejected.

[Velasco]

Also it is good to speak about a "new statute"; but what would said statute contain? What would be the novelties that would placate the separatists? And would it even pass constitutional muster? (Even a relatively mild cut like in 2010 might be enough to throw the region in flames again)

It is good to speak about and it is necessary to sit everybody around a table, in order to negotiate a political solution (or at least a compromise for the next decades). In my opinion, when we are facing a complex and convoluted conflict in Catalonia, it's absolutely prioritary to create the neccessary preconditions for dialog. The latter also requires good predisposition, respect for the other side and willingness to hear its arguments. It's not a matter of "placate separatists", but rather a matter to reach a compromise. Separatists must be aeare that they don't represent all the Catalan people as well