Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

Overseas ballots will start being counted tomorrow. There are 233,688 ballots to be counted, around 10% of the 2,3 million voters registered overseas.

So up a bit from last time (7.4%), but not terribly different.

It's up to see whether the CERA vote changes the seat distribution. The results were so tight that a single seat matters. Keep an eye, folks

[Mike88]

Overseas ballots will start being counted tomorrow. There are 233,688 ballots to be counted, around 10% of the 2,3 million voters registered overseas.

So up a bit from last time (7.4%), but not terribly different.

Yep, an increase, but not a big one. The first results are already being reported and they made no changes in the seat count: In Melilla, PP won 75 votes and PSOE 51; and in Soria PP also won with 247 votes and PSOE with 190.

There are at least 4 constituencies where there could be changes in seats: Madrid, Cantabria, Girona and Tarragona, the rest seems very difficult to have changes, although not impossible.

[icc]

Overseas ballots will start being counted tomorrow. There are 233,688 ballots to be counted, around 10% of the 2,3 million voters registered overseas.

So up a bit from last time (7.4%), but not terribly different.

Yep, an increase, but not a big one. The first results are already being reported and they made no changes in the seat count: In Melilla, PP won 75 votes and PSOE 51; and in Soria PP also won with 247 votes and PSOE with 190.

There are at least 4 constituencies where there could be changes in seats: Madrid, Cantabria, Girona and Tarragona, the rest seems very difficult to have changes, although not impossible.

Where is it being reported?

[Mike88]

Overseas ballots will start being counted tomorrow. There are 233,688 ballots to be counted, around 10% of the 2,3 million voters registered overseas.

So up a bit from last time (7.4%), but not terribly different.

Yep, an increase, but not a big one. The first results are already being reported and they made no changes in the seat count: In Melilla, PP won 75 votes and PSOE 51; and in Soria PP also won with 247 votes and PSOE with 190.

There are at least 4 constituencies where there could be changes in seats: Madrid, Cantabria, Girona and Tarragona, the rest seems very difficult to have changes, although not impossible.

Where is it being reported?

I'm following the El País live update: https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-28/reacciones-pactos-y-resultados-del-23j-en-directo.html

[Mike88]

So far, no changes at all in the seat count: PSOE failed to win a seat from Junts in Tarragona and PP failed to win a seat in Girona from Junts.

Of the results that so far I could found in live updates, from at least 12 constituencies, the results from the two main parties are these:

10,040 PP
  9,654 PSOE

* There was an error in one of the live feeds in the Almeria results.

[icc]

As I suspected, there are nowhere near enough vote for changes / the margins were far too large in every province outside Madrid.

There are easily enough votes for a change there, but the right will have to outperform its on the day vote (which it has done bascially nowhere so far).

[icc]

Though on votes it looks semi-plausible that Sumar could overtake Vox nationally.

[Mike88]

Though on votes it looks semi-plausible that Sumar could overtake Vox nationally.

It's a possibility, yes. In Valencia, for example, Sumar had 3 more votes than PP, 1,900 vs 1,897.

[Mike88]

CERA vote update: (From 23 constituencies)

22,136 PP
20,458 PSOE
10,028 Sumar
  7,138 Vox
  1,780 Bildu
  1,430 PNV
  1,044 BNG
     858 Junts
     410 UPN
     263 ERC

[Logical]

PSOE is ahead in most provinces counted so far. But the seat count has not changed.

[Mike88]

PSOE is ahead in most provinces counted so far. But the seat count has not changed.

And the popular vote is still very close, mainly because of Galicia where PP just rolled over the PSOE. Do you have the results of Cáceres and Palencia?

[Oryxslayer]

PSOE is ahead in most provinces counted so far. But the seat count has not changed.

And the popular vote is still very close, mainly because of Galicia where PP just rolled over the PSOE.

And no seats can change cause a net of a hundred plus votes, which is the average, is not enough to shift the allocations in any remaining areas.

[Oliver]

Senate elections

What happens if a directly elected member of the Spanish Senate resigns from office and a seat becomes vacant between general elections? Is a by-election is held?

Can political parties run joint candidates in Senate elections? I wonder why there was no PSOE/SUMAR or PP/VOX electoral alliance to avoid vote splitting in Senate elections.

[Logical]

PSOE is ahead in most provinces counted so far. But the seat count has not changed.

And the popular vote is still very close, mainly because of Galicia where PP just rolled over the PSOE. Do you have the results of Cáceres and Palencia?

Caceres
PSOE 623
PP 406
VOX 208
SUMAR 180

Palencia
PSOE 262
PP 255
VOX 87
SUMAR 85

[Mike88]

PSOE is ahead in most provinces counted so far. But the seat count has not changed.

And the popular vote is still very close, mainly because of Galicia where PP just rolled over the PSOE. Do you have the results of Cáceres and Palencia?

Caceres
PSOE 623
PP 406
VOX 208
SUMAR 180

Palencia
PSOE 262
PP 255
VOX 87
SUMAR 85

Thanks! So far, I have these totals:

36,436 PP
36,017 PSOE
17,858 Sumar
12,161 Vox
  2,564 ERC
  2 238 Junts
  1,647 BNG
  1,780 Bildu
  1,430 PNV
     410 UPN

[icc]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

[kaoras]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

Yeah, really surprising. Either Madrid voted like Galicia in the CERA or Sumar over performed massively at the expense of PSOE.

If PP get this seat then there is no option but to go to another election.

[PSOL]

New elections are the best possible outcome for Spanish politics

[icc]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

Yeah, really surprising. Either Madrid voted like Galicia in the CERA or Sumar over performed massively at the expense of PSOE.

If PP get this seat then there is no option but to go to another election.

Sounds like a big Sumar performance (not unsurprising).

[Mike88]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

Both PP and PSOE are confirming that PP indeed won the Madrid seat from the Socialists.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

Both PP and PSOE are confirming that PP indeed won the Madrid seat from the Socialists.

GE Round Two! Give it up for Round Two!

[DL]

So if there is another election this winter what is likely to happen? Does Sanchez have momentum from his better than expected result? Is the PP led by someone new?

[jaichind]

I wonder if the Catalonia regionist vote will turn out at a larger rate next election which means unless one of the two blocs has a breakout result there might be more deadlock.

[somerandomth]

Time for another election....

[MRCVzla]

Senate elections

What happens if a directly elected member of the Spanish Senate resigns from office and a seat becomes vacant between general elections? Is a by-election is held?

Can political parties run joint candidates in Senate elections? I wonder why there was no PSOE/SUMAR or PP/VOX electoral alliance to avoid vote splitting in Senate elections.

Each directly elected senator has two substitutes in case of death, disability or resignation according to Spanish electoral law, each substitute is mentioned in the lists of candidates that appear in the Official State Gazette (BOE) but not in the single ballot in each constituency.

Article 166
1. The direct election of Senators in the provincial and insular constituencies and in Ceuta and Melilla is governed by the provisions of the following sections:
a) Voters can vote for a maximum of three candidates in the provincial constituencies, two in Gran Canaria, Mallorca, Tenerife, Ceuta and Melilla, and one in the remaining insular constituencies.
b) Those candidates who obtain the greatest number of votes until they complement the number of Senators assigned to the constituency will be proclaimed elected.

2. In the event of death, incapacity or resignation of a directly elected Senator, the vacancy will be filled by his designated substitute according to article 171 of this Law.

Article 171
1. Candidacies for the Senate are individual for voting and scrutiny purposes, although they can be grouped into lists for presentation and electoral campaign purposes.

2. Each candidacy for Senator must include two substitute candidates stating the order in which they should assume the substitution. The names of the substitute candidates will appear in the publication of the candidacies in the "Official State Gazette" (BOE) and in all electoral documentation, but they will not be included in the electoral ballots.

Prior to the "LOREG", there were by-elections in case of resignation or death, in May 1978 there were by-elections in Alicante (for a deceased PSOE senator, the Socialists hold the seat) and Asturias (for the resignation due to health problems of a PCE senator, PSOE gained the seat), in the following legislature, in November 1980, by-elections were also held in Almería (two UCD senators resigned, PSOE won both seats) and in Seville (for a PSOE senator who was appointed then magistrate of the Constitutional Court, PSOE also hold the seat), in all cases parties ran by separate without any multi-party alliance. Since then there have been no by-elections to fill a vacant directly elected senator.