Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Valls is calling for a Catalan Mario Draghi two sentences after dismissing the entire Catalan nationalist movement as unable to govern, and saying ERC cannot be left-wing because it is seperatist. He is a total cuck.

Someone calling for a "Catalan Mario Draghi" either doesn't understand Catalan politics or doesn't understand Italian politics. Or both.

Can't wait for Manuel Valls to run for mayor of Milano or something whenever Italy has local elections

All of the four largest Italian cities (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin) have mayoral elections this year, although the date is still unclear. Bologna, which is the seventh-largest city and is notoriously a stronghold for the centre-left, also goes to the polls this year.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I need to meet more Spanish gals.

Ayy lmao

I'll grant you that Isabel Ayuso looks very beautiful but damn, way to make your entrance in a thread.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

You can do like Italy and simply have no liberal parties. Well, we actually have, but all of them are so small and useless and not comparable to anything you mentioned nor even Ciudadanos. But just in case, the current government includes both Italia Viva and Lega, so there you have it (although obviously it is a "national unity" government so it is a bit special).

For what is worth, I had a discussion yesterday with someone and I summed up Italy's government as saying the equivalent here would be to have PM Luis de Guindos, under a PSOE-UP-Vox coalition

Well kind of. Of course there is no perfect approximation, but I view Vox as more comparable to FdI than to Lega, because of centralism, relations to post-fascist legacy, and electorate sociology. And Guindos is a party figure, differently from Draghi.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

I mean, it seems to me that the recent history of C's is a big collection of suicide attempts.

PP-Vox not getting a majority would mean Ayuso being sacked and a PSOE-Más-Podemos coalition government, right? Unless C's resuscitates somehow.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Also looking at polling it seems the priors are correct and PP will be the great winner of this. Cs has decided to commit suicide (RIP) while the parties of the left are basically stable (though I would expect UP to be comfortably above the threshold, not super close to it?)

I guess the question will be whether PP-Vox get a majority or not, how does Vox perform relative to expectations (I think Ayuso has sucked out most of the right wing oxygen in Madrid so Vox is in for a relatively tough election where they need to keep low expectations) and perhaps how close can PP get to an overall majority, especially if UP falls below the theshold

I mean, it seems to me that the recent history of C's is a big collection of suicide attempts.

PP-Vox not getting a majority would mean Ayuso being sacked and a PSOE-Más-Podemos coalition government, right? Unless C's resuscitates somehow.

Yeah, if PP-Vox don't get a majority and Cs doesn't make the threshold then yeah, a left wing PSOE-MM-UP government will easily be formed; I just don't think it is a super likely proposition (though not impossible)

The interesting scenario would be if neither the 3 parties of the left nor PP-Vox get a majority and Cs is needed to form a government. Of course, you first need Cs to make the threshold

I fully agree. My assumption about C's is that it will side with the right bloc until proven otherwise, but who knows.

As an aside, I have just noticed that there is ample potential for jokes from the fact that Ayuso bears the same first name as the most famous Queen of Castille and Spain, lol.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Right-wing voters are apparently very motivated, but the success of Ayuso in rallying the most radical voters behind her might be counter-productive. In case a majority of Vox voters rally behind Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the list of Rocío Monasterio could be in danger. Ayuso looks sonetimes more radical than Monasterio and is widely loved by the Vox base. Vox below threshold is not the most likely outcome, but it's a possibility. On the other hand, he PP might get a result close to absolute majority...

Would the scenario you outline here be more likely to give PP an absolute majority or to boost the PSOE-MM-UP bloc? Not that it sounds particularly plausible either way, of course.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Social services should be reserved for Spaniards, according to candidate Rocío Monasterio. This comes within the context of a pro-working class rhetorical shift in their campaign, along with other statements such as “the left has abandoned the workers” or “where’s the social safety net promised by Iglesias?” (at the same time, the party espouses an economic platform that amounts to radical Thatcherism with Iberian characteristics).

Yeah, there is a big clash between Vox's platform (I laughed at "Thatcherism with Iberian characteristics" lmao; very true) and Vox's wish to appeal to the working class.

Welcome to "European right-wing #populist parties". Many such cases.


Speaking of what has happened in the intervening days with regards to Vox (extremely disappointing and concerning), tomorrow is April 25th, which seems like a perfect day to demonstrate against fascism in a Latin country. Just an observation.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh

Welcome to the club, my friend. We have that since 2010 and you're still lucky because, from what I read, you will pay only 1 cent per Km. A highway trip between Porto and Viana do Castelo, in the area I live, costs 3,85 euros. Using the Spanish proposal, it would cost just 0,62 euros. I wish we had these prices here.

Hahaha amateurs. Most of Italy's highways are toll roads and they have been so since, well, forever. And depending on how mountainous and tortuous/convoluted the stretch you are covering is, it can cost up to more than 10 cent per km.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't remember why I stopped posting in this thread (I guess I've grown to find Spanish politics kind of boring, especially now that the party system is back to what it used to be just with half of PP having migrated to Vox and half of PSOE to Unidxs Podemos or "Sumar") but I probably will start again after this surprise election announcement.

Speaking of which, can someone explain to me what's the deal with Podemos and Sumar? I don't really understand it.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Speaking of which, can someone explain to me what's the deal with Podemos and Sumar? I don't really understand it.

This article was released in November 2022,  but it explains in detail the origin of the divergence between Pablo Igledias and Yolanda Díaz. The breakdown between Iglesias and Errejón predates to months before the Vistalegre II Podemos convention in 2017 (the breakaway was prior to the 2019 regional elections).

https://www.eldiario.es/escolar/ruptura-pablo-iglesias-yolanda-diaz-pasando-unidas_132_9706388.html

This one is more recent: why Madrid is so rightwing?

https://www.eldiario.es/opinion/derecha-fuerte-madrid_129_10228809.html

So this sounds like the origin of the split is that Iglesias wanted Díaz to lead the alliance when she didn't feel like it yet? Pretty weird. But I was more so asking why Podemos (now led by Ione Belarra I reckon) did not join Sumar this year.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And the precinct I'm currently living in in Madrid

PP: 60.9%
Vox: 11.8%
MM: 9.7%
PSOE: 8.5%
Cs: 4.6%
Podemos: 2.3%

You know your precinct is uber-conservative when even now Cs is above Podemos lmao

Salamanca? Yikes... although honestly I find kind of funny how Ayuso monopolized the right-wing vote even at the expense of Madrid Vox.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Fun fact #2: I actually went on a "pilgrimage" to Fuentidueña del Tajo to visit one of the only two non-Ayuso voting towns like a year ago! (BRTD would be proud lol) And to be honest for being a random village in the middle of nowhere, it beat my admittedly low expectations

I seem to recall you talking about that! I am glad you liked it. Are you going to Valdaracete this year?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Maybe this is a stupid question or rather one that answers itself, but is there a reason why Vox is so weak in Galicia other than the region not being "culturally Castilian"? I ask because unlike the Basque Country or Catalonia (when it comes to national parties) it is a typically conservative region - indeed every other PP leader has been Galician. Vox also did pretty well in the Balearic Islands in 2019, which are about as Catalan-speaking and rich as Catalonia proper.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

4. Hallmarks (identity signs) to defend and recover our hallmarks

I don't get this. What does this even mean?

"Hallmarks (identity signs)" is the most important thing in Spanish politics, so I am surprised you don't get it.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I took that Cluster17 test and got "socialdemócrata", which appears to mean "poor Andalucian and/or Latin American who goes to church but votes PSOE".

Guardiola's U-turn is pathetic, but particularly funny because I just looked up her (Spanish) Wikipedia page and it has a section essentially dedicated to talking about how moderate she is.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I've seen the turnout patterns interpreted as a sign of wide abstention in the major independentist camps, which would make sense. It would be extremely funny if this were to be counteracted by a surge for the BNG, but I imagine the particularly higher turnout in Galicia is more likely a Feijóo "favourite son" effect.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

PP-Vox choking... you love to see it! I have a question, are we certain CC would vote for Feijóo? Could they get bribed by the Left? They don't strike me as particularly committed to one side.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Eish... awkward. Feijóo was giving his speech, and the crowd started calling for Ayuso.

I would also much rather Cruella De Vil spoke than the most boring man on Earth if for some reason I were at a PP rally, to be honest.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have always wondered why the Spanish right wing is so determined to keep Catalonia. It is a gangrenous appendage that only gets in the way and causes putrefaction in the body. What I have always supported is an agreed independence, with UN supervisors. Of course, with the corresponding debt and with vetoes to both NATO and the EU.

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos. To want to keep Catalonia in these conditions is foolishness and masochistic fetishism. Of course the Psoe knows this perfectly well and that is why I believe they would never agree to a referendum.

Maybe because the Spanish right-wing and for that matter most of the Spanish public (though details vary enormously) is firmly convinced that Catalonia is indeed an integral part of Spain? It's also the wealthiest autonomous community together with Madrid and produces 20% of the Spanish GDP. I am sure you already know all of this though, so I am going to classify your post as extended cope.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

CC would surely be putting the "hero" in "moderate hero" if they actually do it

They are the "canary in the coal mine" (sorry could not resist)

Maybe they can expand on the mainland and form Coalición Asturias in that case.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It is quite funny that the question of amnesty laws has brought out the likes of Aznar and González, even if it makes sense given how central it is to the modern Spanish state. This makes me wonder, what is their reputation today both among society at large and within their respective parties, especially the more ideological and less moderate factions?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Puigdemont cult and its consequences etc. (and yes I know it has causes as well as consequences, so I blame those as well, but they caused ERC even more and ERC is acting much more reasonably).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Puigdemont cult and its consequences etc. (and yes I know it has causes as well as consequences, so I blame those as well, but they caused ERC even more and ERC is acting much more reasonably).

One of the most bizarre things of Catalan politics has been the sudden transformation of ERC, which for 40 years was the hardline, no compromise pro-independence party into the moderate "adults in the room party"

And quite the sudden shift, as recently as October 1st 2017 Rufian was tweeting about Puigdemont selling Catalonia like Judas sold Jesus!

And just like that, within half a day of me posting that Junts found an agreement with the PSOE. Maybe I manifested it.