Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

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Just in case anyone missed it, in Murcia C’s is getting its first regional presidency (if you don’t count Melilla, where they govern with just 1 seat, à la Thuringian FDP). The PSOE agreed to support their leader in the region in exchange for C’s supporting a socialist mayor in Murcia’s capital.

Last time there has been a non-PP, non-PSOE regional president from a national party was in 1987, in the Canary Islands. Former PM Suarez’s CDS (Democratic and Social Center) was at the helm.

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The original PP-Cs pact in Murcia was particularly stupid to begin with because PSOE was the largest party in seats and votes and PSOE-Cs have a majority on their own, they didn't even need Podemos. I don't know how they justified it originally.

At the time, C’s sided at practically every chance with the right because Rivera was obsessed with surpassing the PP after coming within 9 seats of actually achieving it in the April general election. Nevertheless, they maintained their centrist anti-bloc politics rhetoric (while effectively practicing bloc politics).

They justified this contradiction by saying that the PSOE wasn’t your parents’ moderate, constitutionalist PSOE, it was a radical “Sánchist” party in bed with the Catalan separatists. They demanded from regional PSOE branches a complete repudiation of Pedro Sánchez in order to negotiate anything with them, which of course was an impossible condition. Their inevitable refusal gave C’s an excuse to ally with the PP and Vox.

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normal EU liberals must avoid contact with the far-right.

To be fair, there doesn’t seem to be a completely coherent position within the European liberals with regards to the far-right. While it is true that some Renew Europe parties maintain a cordon sanitaire policy, the Finnish and Estonian Centre parties, Venstre in Denmark and VVD in the Netherlands (among others) have all in recent times governed with support from, or even in coalition with, so-called far-right parties (the Finns Party, EKRE, the Danish People’s Party and the Party for Freedom, respectively).

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Fran Hervías, a C's senator who was a key member of Albert Rivera's leadership team as secretary for organization, has resigned from the party and from his seat in the chamber, issuing a mild-mannered statement clearly in line with the "Let's end the Spain of reds and blues" rhetoric of his old boss's era at the helm. Here's an excerpt:

"Spain is governed by a gang whose only objective is annihilating our constitutional system. Our country debates itself between being a nation of free citizens and the rupture and chaos of Sanchism, between those of us who love Spain and those who want to annihilate it, between those of us who defend the constitutional system and those who seek to destroy it."

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Weird move by Iglesias. Don't know his real motives, but my hunch is that he wanted to leave the government, for a long time now, as the relation between him and Sanchéz is going from bad to worse, not to mention between PSOE and UP. Plus, after the PSOE and C's disastrous attempt to remove the Murcia premier and failed attempt to avoid an election in Madrid, Iglesias may think that he can wound Sanchéz in this election by weakening the PSOE candidate and dividing the left vote, as he has no chance of winning. However, like Tack said, Iglesias isn't that popular within UP and outside of it, thus this move by Iglesias could backfire.

The move of leaving the government has been in the making for some time now, but the motivation wasn’t conflicts within the cabinet, it was to set up Yolanda Díaz as Iglesias’s successor. She is now going to be the new UP deputy PM and in all likelihood its candidate in the next general election, which; again, was already planned for and was bound to happen at some point during the current parliament.

It happened now because the leadership saw the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: in addition clearing the question of Pablo Iglesias’s succession, they are staving off the prospect of falling below the threshold in Madrid with a stronger candidate. Essentially, Ayuso’s decision to call snap regional election has precipitated events.

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Más Madrid has rejected Pablo Iglesias's offer for a joint list between them and Podemos.

It’s a logical decision, Más Madrid doesn’t have any interest in submitting itself to the smaller party. Also, the electoral system is proportional, so it doesn’t really matter that they run separate lists as long as neither falls below 5% (which is very unlikely due to recent developments), plus joint candidacies tend to not widen the appeal of their electoral space, rather shrinking it; as Podemos-IU alliances have shown time and time again.

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e.e
https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1371890020085293062?s=20

Unless Abbas Khal launches the Re-Reconquista and restores al-Ándalus to its rightful Islamic owners, I’m not interested.

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Today, the Congress of Deputies overwhelmingly voted to legalize euthanasia, with only PP and Vox opposing a bill drafted by former Health minister María Luisa Carcedo (PSOE). That way, Spain becomes the sixth country in the world to allow the practice. The law’s provisions will be effective three months from now, with the left celebrating its passage as a historic moment.

In Murcia, the motion of no confidence started by C’s and the PSOE, as expected, failed to remove the regional government from power. 21 deputies voted in favor (PSOE 17, Podemos 3, 2 C’s), 23 against (16 PP, 3 ex-C’s, 3 ex-Vox, 1 Vox) and 1 deputy abstained (C’s). The three C’s members that defected will all have seats in the regional cabinet. It is rumored that one of the ex-Vox deputies who at one point negotiated with PSOE and C’s to support the motion will be regional minister for Education.

In the meantime, C’s has been suffering a bout of resignations and defections to the PP since the fiascos in Murcia and Madrid. Aside from Albert Rivera’s former right hand man Francisco Hervías, Valencia regional leader and actor Toni Cantó stepped down from all his political posts and left the party while calling for a PP-C’s alliance for the Madrid regional election. In addition, several senators have also abandoned C’s, but they won’t resign their seats, meaning they won’t be replaced by other C’s candidates on the electoral lists, thus depriving the party of the 6 senators needed to form a Senate parliamentary group; and a deputy in the lower chamber has become an independent, leaving C’s with just 9 seats in the Congress of Deputies.

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BREAKING NEWS: In a rather less exciting twist in Spanish politics, former Madrid regional vice president Ignacio Aguado will not be a candidate in the Madrid regional election. Instead, Congress spokesman Edmundo Bal will represent what remains of C’s, after being anointed in soon-to-be-held primaries.

Probably increases the party’s chances of entering the Assembly, albeit just slightly. A change in candidate means at least one positive piece of news in the sea of negative press C’s has been getting for the past few days, but it isn’t as big of a bombshell as Iglesias’ candidacy was. As for Bal’s personal attributes, he is a combative figure used as an attack dog, as most Congress spokespersons are. Could be a plus, though it most likely will be irrelevant, considering he doesn’t seem to have much name recognition anyways.

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Meanwhile the Murcia city council censorship motion actually worked with a +1 majority of PSOE, Cs and UP (15-14 of PP+Vox), ending with 26 years of PP' administrations in the city.

It would be quite something if in addition to giving the mayoralty of Murcia to the PSOE in exchange for nothing, C’s managed to give the left a slim majority in Madrid by narrowly missing the 5% threshold.

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There have been some new developments recently. For instance,  former Cs leading figure Toni Cantó left the party and his home Valencia region to join the PP placed 5th in the list headed by Ayuso.  I feel lazy to make updates these days,  so please tack50  or mimoha post something

Don't worry, we've got your back! Though MRCVzla has already covered almost everything (welcome to the thread, btw)

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Today Pedro Sánchez presented his new Deputy PMs. He bragged about his being the only cabinet in the world with four female Deputy PMs (incidentally, also the only cabinet in the world with four deputy PMs of any gender) and pledged that the government will finish its term and remain in place until 2023.

Nadia Calviño (independent PSOE), Economy minister, is promoted to Iglesias’s former post as second deputy PM, while Yolanda Díaz (UP), Labour minister, replaces Calviño in turn and becomes third deputy PM. They will be sworn in tomorrow, along with Ione Belarra (UP), the new Social Rights minister.

Pablo Iglesias marked his final day in office with a confrontation in the streets with a group of neo-nazis. Nothing too serious, Igesias and his entourage chanted “Yes we can” at the group while they chanted back “Castes (elites) out of our neighborhood”, and that was that.

With respects to the Madrid regional election, socialist candidate Ángel Gabilondo continues to double down on his Moderate Hero rhetoric. In addition to insisting that he wants to govern with Más Madrid and C’s rather than with Podemos, he has made a pledge to not raise taxes. Sort of a kinder, gentler left.

Ayuso, of course, didn’t read his lips, and claims that every Madrilenian will pay 2.000€ more in taxes if the left wins. In contrast, she plans to decrease the already low levels of taxation in Madrid. This approach seems to be popular according to polling, which continues to suggest that the regional president is headed for a solid victory, with around 40% of the vote.

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State department press freedom report

There was a small row after a U.S. State department report criticised the government over attacks supposedly made by it on the freedom of the press. The report in question pointed out that many journalists have denounced that their questions directed at government officials during the March national lockdown ended up not being answered at press conferences, which at the time were held in a non-presential format, which consisted of the PM's communications director reading out selected questions, filtered through Moncloa's Press Office after being submitted by news outlets.

It also brought in to attention attacks made by PM Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) on conservative outlets and an imprisonment threat made by then Deputy PM Pablo Iglesias (UP) against a journalist for publishing damaging revelations about his party regarding the Neurona corruption case; along with several other statements belonging to high-ranking Unidas Podemos figures, singling out spokesman Pablo Echenique.

In addition, being a general report on press freedom in Spain, not just government attitudes towards it; it mentioned certain patterns of hostility towards the press within Vox, though it didn't specify any concrete instances, as was the case with the governing parties.

The opposition has hailed this report as proof that their accusations of authoritarian tendencies in the government are founded, while Deputy PM Carmen Calvo (PSOE) dismissed the report as biased due to it being mostly elaborated during the waning days of the Trump administration. Some on the left have said that the United States' record on press freedom and other civil liberties should make the State department think twice about lecturing other countries.

Ruling against the government

In other news, the government received a severe judicial blow on Wednesday. A judge ruled that last year's dismissal of Colonel Diego Pérez de los Cobos as Guardia Civil (one of the two national police corps of Spain) chief in Madrid, carried out by Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, was unlawful and constituted an abuse of power, being therefore nullified.

The judge considers that the minister removed Pérez de los Cobos for his involvement in an investigation into the government's conduct during early 2020, in the weeks preceding the declaration of a nationwide state of alarm due to the coronavirus pandemic. Said investigation produced a report which alleged that the government had known beforehand of the extent the virus' spread would have, as far back as January, possibly incurring in negligence by allowing mass events such as the International Women's Day demonstrations on March 8; just days before a national lockdown came into force.

At the time, the report caused great controversy for its accusations, based on flimsy evidence which cited right-wing news sources with a history of fabrication and anti-government bias. It was in the aftermath of its publication that the minister decided to dismiss the Colonel, on the ground of "loss of confidence in him", provoking several resignations within the top brass of the Guardia Civil. The judge understands that this was an attempt to obstruct justice, even though the report did not result in the prosecution of any members of the government.

The Interior ministry has already appealed the decision, in hopes that the dismissed Colonel is not reinstated to his old post, as the sentence dictates.

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In what regards the cases against Podemos, they have been invariably dismissed to date. Is there a corruption scandal involving Neurona consilting? I'd be cautious, given the precedents.

It looks like another nothingburger, I haven’t been following it very closely, but a lot of the case was based on hearsay and several lines of investigation have been closed due to lack of evidence. It will probably end in nothing.

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Madrid regional election campaign: José Luis Ábalos (PSOE), the Transportation minister, is PISSED that Isabel Díaz Ayuso gets to be called by both of her surnames and not just one of them. In a less important part of his remarks during a campaign act, he attacked a controversial Vox election poster as racist, comparing its message to the antisemitism propagated by fascist movements in the 1930s.

Here’s the poster in question:

“One MENA*: (costs the State) 4700€/month”
“Your grandmother: 426€/month in pensions”

*Menor extranjero no acompañado/ Non-accompanied foreign minor

Más Madrid and UP also denounced it, calling out the dehumanization of underage immigrants. Furthermore, they are both taking legal action against Vox, alleging a hate crime. In the meantime, the regional president distanced herself from her prospective allies and supported the integration of MENAs in society, blaming the Interior ministry for the lack of resources in this endeavor.

Vox defended itself by denying the allegations of racism, saying that they doesn’t have anything against immigrant minors and wish them well, just far away from Spain. Social services should be reserved for Spaniards, according to candidate Rocío Monasterio. This comes within the context of a pro-working class rhetorical shift in their campaign, along with other statements such as “the left has abandoned the workers” or “where’s the social safety net promised by Iglesias?” (at the same time, the party espouses an economic platform that amounts to radical Thatcherism with Iberian characteristics).

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And as it's tradition for me to do, here is a quick overview of the various campaign slogans and posters of the 6 main parties contesting this regional election in Madrid

PSOE: Do it for Madrid

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PP: Freedom

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MM: For what matters the most

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Vox: Protect Madrid

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UP: Let the majority talk

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Cs: Choose the centre

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The best posters are of course those who post in and follow the Spanish politics thread. 

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If I wanted to be constantly bombarded with tweets I would be on Twitter. Maybe you should spend less time there, or at least stop spamming us with it. And perhaps if you made more of an effort to elaborate your views, people would be more receptive to them.

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The main problem the people who were in PSOE during the Gonzalez era but are heavy Sanchez critics and even outright conservatives nowaday claim is the fact that Sanchez is willing to do deals and coalitions with secessionist parties. Whether it is true or just a convenient excuse who knows, but I'd believe them given it's a critic from many who were even in the more progressive side of the party in the 80s and 90s! (like deputy PM Alfonso Guerra, also a Sanchez critic)

Yep, this is the main factor. All those dinosaurs come from an era when the PSOE was more "culturally conservative", meaning it was relatively hawkish with regards to Catalonia and more unapologetically "patriotic" or "Spanish" (the native term being españolista); although this paradigm started to shift already during the Zapatero years, when the PSOE adopted more dovish stance with a more pluralistic concept of Spain in which Catalonia and others could be considered nations within a nation.

In terms of policy, this resulted in the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy, which was controversial because it defined Catalonia as a nation and entitled the region to increased funding from Madrid, among other things. It met heavy opposition from many of the exact same dinosaurs that criticize Sánchez today, with Alfonso Guerra playing a major role in watering down many of its provisions in Congress (something which would fuel separatism in the 2010s). This was when the rift between PSOE leadership and these critics started, having grown wider in recent years due to the deals the current government has with pro-independence parties, as Tack mentioned.

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Yep, this is the main factor. All those dinosaurs come from an era when the PSOE was more "culturally conservative", meaning it was relatively hawkish with regards to Catalonia and more unapologetically "patriotic" or "Spanish" (the native term being españolista); although this paradigm started to shift already during the Zapatero years, when the PSOE adopted more dovish stance with a more pluralistic concept of Spain in which Catalonia and others could be considered nations within a nation.

In terms of policy, this resulted in the 2006 Catalan Statute of Autonomy, which was controversial because it defined Catalonia as a nation and entitled the region to increased funding from Madrid, among other things. It met heavy opposition from many of the exact same dinosaurs that criticize Sánchez today, with Alfonso Guerra playing a major role in watering down many of its provisions in Congress (something which would fuel separatism in the 2010s). This was when the rift between PSOE leadership and these critics started, having grown wider in recent years due to the deals the current government has with pro-independence parties, as Tack mentioned.

How did this stance square with the fact that the PSOE would always win Catalonia in national elections in that period?

Well, the PSC (the socialists in Catalonia) has always been more catalanista, in terms of identity, than the PSOE and has enjoyed considerable autonomy when it comes to expressing this stance. At some points they have broken quite significantly with the Madrid line, one prominent example being a 2012 Congress of Deputies vote on a self-determination consult for Catalonia in which the PSC voted in favor while the PSOE voted against.

Furthermore, although the PSOE was (relatively) more hawkish on Catalonia, it was nothing in comparison to how hawkish the Spanish right currently is, mainly because back then they didn’t need to be due to the fact that the Catalan nationalists were not pro-independence. Felipe González even governed with support from CiU between 1993 and 1996.

And, while the socialists did use to win in Catalonia, in almost every election they have had a lower percentage of the vote there than in Spain as a whole, the only exceptions being years when there was a strong urge of stopping a prospective PP government (1996 and 2008). This last factor has also played a role in the PSC’s success over time.

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Former PM Zapatero has also been sent a letter with two bullets. Ominous trend...

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Can the procedure used to ban Batasuna be used to ban Vox?

In all likelihood, no. Not that it would be productive.

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I don't know if we'll get real or even semi-real polls this week.

Maybe GESOP does some polling from the safety of Andorra? They usually just do general elections and Catalan elections, but this is a very important and standalone election, so I could see them making an exception.

I wouldn't give a gram of credibility to Electomania "polls".

Me neither. For starters self-selection sampling bias is a thing, and they’re obviously cooking the books. Not only that, they’re also pretty arrogant about it and self-important.

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My final prediction:
PP: 39%, 56 seats
PSOE: 23%, 33 seats
MM: 15%, 22 seats
Vox: 10%, 15 seats
UP: 7%, 10 seats
C’s: 4%, 0 seats

PP+Vox: 49%, 71 seats
PSOE+MM+UP: 45%, 65 seats

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Vox is complaining that their voters are being misled because their ballots are placed next to Volt’s, which according to national spokesperson Iván Espinosa de los Monteros and others could lead to accidental votes for the pan-European party. This is, of course, quite good publicity for Volt (certainly much better than what they’ve gotten throughout the campaign).

As for turnout, it seems to be going up in both left-wing and right-wing strongholds, though the trend is more consistent in the latter ones. Not good news for the left, as they are the ones who really need to turn out their base. We will have more info at 18:00, when the next turnout update is being published.

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Turnout is skyrocketing by ten points in the latest update. It will be record-breaking, above 70%. Nevertheless, the increase, while much larger, seems to be following the same patterns as the one at 13:00.