Texas 2022 megathread

[Politician]

Here comes a poll showing Beto only down like 3 or something

[wbrocks67]

For comparison sake, CBS/YouGOv's last poll of TX in 2020 was in September and had Trump +2 (48-46), so not extremely helpful since it was still a month and a half before the election. They nailed Bidens % though.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

For comparison sake, CBS/YouGOv's last poll of TX in 2020 was in September and had Trump +2 (48-46), so not extremely helpful since it was still a month and a half before the election. They nailed Bidens % though.

I'm very inclined to think the same thing is happening here. The 39-44% range we see for Beto in these polls is probably exactly where he will land come election day. Abbott's #s are way too low.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley only leads 49/44 and Abbott leads only 45/40, this is a trend in the D's direction

Upsets  and Ryan leafs plus 9

[ProgressiveModerate]

For comparison sake, CBS/YouGOv's last poll of TX in 2020 was in September and had Trump +2 (48-46), so not extremely helpful since it was still a month and a half before the election. They nailed Bidens % though.

I'm very inclined to think the same thing is happening here. The 39-44% range we see for Beto in these polls is probably exactly where he will land come election day. Abbott's #s are way too low.

I can't see Beto falling below 40% at this point, even in an R wave. Dems floor in TX is too high, though 42% or so is def realistic. P0art of it will depend upon how many 3rd party votes there are.

[Mayor U.N. Trustable]

Will Abbott win by more than 2018?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is extremely close like FL, NC 5 pts and Rs I'm this Environment are supposed to be 10 pts ahead, that tells you about the R party no he won't win by 10 can Biden lost TX by 6, I hope Beto wins

As users already knows I put wave Insurance on my map because we are gonna be scoreboard watching and you can't update your prediction on EDay and our donation and vote verifies the accuracy of our vote not a mock prediction

[wbrocks67]

Abbott has an insane warchest so he needs every dollar he can get

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1547944086216138752?s=20&t=nYJ9FVtx...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will Abbott win by more than 2018?

That’s what I’m watching for. He’s def not replicating some of his margins in many TX suburbs and he’s likely to outperform himself in at least many parts of the RGV. How it all adds up is harder to say though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Will Abbott win by more than 2018?

That’s what I’m watching for. He’s def not replicating some of his margins in many TX suburbs and he’s likely to outperform himself in at least many parts of the RGV. How it all adds up is harder to say though.

There can be upsets everything isn't based on models didn't your models say D's were gonna net gain ME and NC and models said D's were gonna net gain H seats they were wrong, very wrong it's based on results not poll

Abbott is only up 5 pts

[wbrocks67]

Once again, I maintain that Abbott is lucky his still in a red-leaning state. He is constantly doing every single thing he can to screw this up for himself. He's certainly giving Beto plenty of things to campaign on.

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1548990119104970752

[SnowLabrador]

Once again, I maintain that Abbott is lucky his still in a red-leaning state. He is constantly doing every single thing he can to screw this up for himself. He's certainly giving Beto plenty of things to campaign on.

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1548990119104970752

To be fair, if I were Abbott, knowing that the families of the victims blamed me for the massacre, I wouldn't go, both for my own interest and because the families wouldn't want me there. But he's still garbage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not out of the ordinary for D Govs to be elected with R state legislature, look at KY Andy Beshear was elected with 2/3rds R state legislature and we have Evers, Whitmer and Wolf with majority R state legislature, McMasters is clearly fav but we haven't even seen a SC Gov poll and Cunningham is fantastic, so it won't be that bad if Crist, Fried, or Beto are elected Gov and have R state legislature

Beto has been behind only 45/40 most polls MOE is 5 pts and Crist is tied with DeSantis a GOP state legislature serves as a check

It's a 303 blue wall map but every election is not the same

[BaldEagle1991]

Once again, I maintain that Abbott is lucky his still in a red-leaning state. He is constantly doing every single thing he can to screw this up for himself. He's certainly giving Beto plenty of things to campaign on.

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1548990119104970752

To be fair, if I were Abbott, knowing that the families of the victims blamed me for the massacre, I wouldn't go, both for my own interest and because the families wouldn't want me there. But he's still garbage.

He was booed when he visited the Uvalde school after the shooting, while Biden was cheered.

I think that made him not want to go. Such a douche.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Adding on to what everyone has said, I’ll be very curious to see how Ugalde votes and swings relative to neighboring counties. Furthermore, does it see any sort of boost in turnout by being forced into the spotlight on a political issue? The impact statewide will be virtually nothing given how small the counties population is, but it could tell both sides about their messaging.

Also, yeah much of Abbotts god tier performances in Texas suburbs in 2018 is going to fade, to what degree is yet to be seen, though probably not enough to knock him out. You also have some where growth from 2018 alone may be enough to cause hmm to lose such as Fort Bend (which I think could actually vote to the left of Harris County)

[BaldEagle1991]

Adding on to what everyone has said, I’ll be very curious to see how Ugalde votes and swings relative to neighboring counties. Furthermore, does it see any sort of boost in turnout by being forced into the spotlight on a political issue? The impact statewide will be virtually nothing given how small the counties population is, but it could tell both sides about their messaging.

Also, yeah much of Abbotts god tier performances in Texas suburbs in 2018 is going to fade, to what degree is yet to be seen, though probably not enough to knock him out. You also have some where growth from 2018 alone may be enough to cause hmm to lose such as Fort Bend (which I think could actually vote to the left of Harris County)

It would be a freakin’ surprise if Fort Bend votes more left than Harris County.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Adding on to what everyone has said, I’ll be very curious to see how Ugalde votes and swings relative to neighboring counties. Furthermore, does it see any sort of boost in turnout by being forced into the spotlight on a political issue? The impact statewide will be virtually nothing given how small the counties population is, but it could tell both sides about their messaging.

Also, yeah much of Abbotts god tier performances in Texas suburbs in 2018 is going to fade, to what degree is yet to be seen, though probably not enough to knock him out. You also have some where growth from 2018 alone may be enough to cause hmm to lose such as Fort Bend (which I think could actually vote to the left of Harris County)

It would be a freakin’ surprise if Fort Bend votes more left than Harris County.

It's not that implausible; Fort Bend is getting a lot of Houston spillover, but unlike Harris County doesn't have the relatively dense heavily R outer suburbs and exurbs. If Abbott shines with this group in particular, it'd have disproportionate affect in Harris County than Fort Bend.

[Real Texan Politics]

While y'all are discussing counties, here is a county map I made a few days ago. Feel free to let me know your thoughts.
https://twitter.com/RealTXPolitics/status/1548185330590760960?s=20&t=rzUBOgp...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is only up 45/40 Trump only won the state 52/46, if Abbott wins it will be by the same margin Trump wins 52/46

[ProgressiveModerate]

While y'all are discussing counties, here is a county map I made a few days ago. Feel free to let me know your thoughts.
https://twitter.com/RealTXPolitics/status/1548185330590760960?s=20&t=rzUBOgp...

This seems about right. I’m not going to be too picky about South Texas as it’s really easy to see Kennedy be anywhere from Abbott + 40 to O’Rourke + 10 just based on who shows up. I do think Uvalde could very well be within 15 given what’s happened there but it’s hard to say.

Denton county within 15 is also interesting given it’s a 13% statewide win, but it is zooming left.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3566598-soros-donates-1-million-to-orourkes-campaign-for-texas-governor/


It's not over Soros donates 1M to Beto lol it's not gonna be 13 Trump only beat Biden 52/46 and Beto is down 45/40

[Politician]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

He's not gonna do any better than Biden, Biden lost the state 52/46 and he is losing 45/40

It's the same 303 map as in 2018 we are competetive in FL, KS and we won AZ, OH, NV Sen

Beto lost to Cruz by 2 that yr

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

Long term I think this is prolly gonna happen anyways cause Collin is rapidly being developed as we speak whereas Tarrant is mostly defined.

[Real Texan Politics]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

Long term I think this is prolly gonna happen anyways cause Collin is rapidly being developed as we speak whereas Tarrant is mostly defined.

I feel like Tarrant goes the way of Maricopa or Pinellas while Collin goes the way of Orange, CA.