Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R, D's would be best off, contesting FL by endorsing like they did in 2014  former R Jolly as they did Crist to beat DeSantis.

The same in 2024 if Cruz runs for Prez Crenshaw is gonna get it, D's are best off to run against Rick Scott.

That's why so many D's are declining to run against Rubio, they can run against Rick Scott

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are gonna give D's an advantage in the midterms next yr, but TX and FL arent winnable.

The polls will change once we get out of this Recession

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto said on MSNBC that he isn't interested in running for Gov or Lt Gov

Mike DeWine is the only red state Gov along with Kemp that are Vulnerable, DeWine will be running with Josh Mandel and Reynolds is popular and DeSantis is running with Rubio

Cranley is probably gonna be our nominee and DeWine only won by 3 not 20, Cranley is only 46 yrs old and Cordray was lackluster like Strickland was

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's will make the House races competetive, Abbott will EASILY win, D's don't even have a 1/3 chance at winning FL or TX 0/3, DESANTIS WILL EASILY WIN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto and Crist aren't winning, due to Rubio being on the ballot

DeWine and Kemp are far more likely, than Reynolds, Abbott and DeSANTIS to lose. DeWine isn't unbeatable, since he only won by 3 pts to Lackluster Cordray and he has lost a race before, to Sherrod Brown in 2006

He will be running with Josh Mandel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunately, Abbott is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Matthew runs he will be the next Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't look like Matthew is gonna run but he is a strong advocate for campaign finance reform, he will campaign for D's in House districts so that if HR 1 doesn't pass, it will pass in 2023 when Ds net seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying Matthew won't enter, but if doesn't,  it was a campaign for HR 1 most Secular actors like William Katt, and Matthew and Clooney want HR 1 and end Citizens United

Actors campaign for D's based on HR1 and Scharzenegger is against Citizens United

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is purple but there hasn't been a female elected Senator or Gov since Ann Richards, we need a male candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I forgot about that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Castro's aren't running they made that very clear when Ds wanted them to run against Cornyn, they want to focus on Joaquin being the best Rep

Abbott is safe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

The Generic ballot is plus 10 Crist, Ryan, CUNNINGHAM and McCounghey can indeed won, thanks to the stimulus or we would have been cut off if Rs kept the Senate

The issue are females, you never know how they are gonna vote they can go either way

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

The Generic ballot is plus 10 Crist, Ryan, CUNNINGHAM and McCounghey can indeed won, thanks to the stimulus or we would have been cut off if Rs kept the Senate

The issue are females, you never know how they are gonna vote they can go either way

2022 will NOT be a D+10 year, I can assure that. That said though, you are right about suburban women possibly turning out heavily for Matthew.

Guess what Guilium lost and he was us six pts with a mnth left and Crist is down by 6 pts with 500 days left it's not impossible for Crist to win since Rubio backtracked on Commission

Ryan can win to, but I don't know about Cunningham but I am donating to all of them anyways anything can happen with the Commission, D's need to expand the battleground beyond the 303 blue wall to keep the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's safe unless McCounghey runs, D's are open to not running anyone if McCounghey runs

McCounghey is +12 against Abbott, but McCounghey is waiting til 2022 not 2021
McCounghey has John Wayne appeal he won't ban concealed arms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/could-beto-back-orourke-mulling-041502831.html


Beto is back, sick of playing McCounghey rumors mulls plan to run for TX Gov instead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, McCounghey isn't running, if he was, Beto wouldn't be gearing up, I am optimistic about 2022 anyways not a Doomer, we have to wait and see how the campaign shakes out, but Abbott been in office too long anyways

Better chance we pick up TX than FL with Crist, Val Deming's and Murphy voting for that Trump oppressive Immigration law, called Kate's Law, no wonder Crist is trailing by 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Beto announces, we need a candidate for Gov as McCounghey is cheering on Beto, he probably isn't running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's arent really,contesting the Gov race but the House races down ballot is very important in keeping the H


Just like FL, Crist may or may not win but keeping H seats close is important, because since Rs are losing Cali recall Cali is expected to Redistricting 6 Rs out, the Rs would be in same position as they were in 2018 and IL and NY, NC and OR would pad a 5 pt D lead to a 15 pt H D lead and then we get to TX Redistricting

If we can minimize it to 6 pts we are in position to keep H, plus we still have IA2 and SC of we do well in IA Gov we can win back IA2 and SC can go back D, D's can keep the H, that's 17 before FL and TX Redistricting, The Rs won't overcome a 17 pt deficit in H with FL or TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's TX and it's not Cali or NY or IL, it's a states rights issue in the Deep South that's why I am not that bothered by it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto and McCounghey arent gonna running if HR 1 doesn't pass, Beto made news on MSNBC

If TX voter Suppression Laws pass, which they will s judge can overturn a Gov race by an R saying it's pure fraud, so it won't even matter if those two ran, for Gov, a judge can overturn it anyways

Safe R as always

That's why I am all in for Crist, he is our best bet to hold down R gains in FL, since Rs have solidified TX already

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is Safe R, McCounghey isn't even a candidate and if he is he is loosing by 1, lol Abbott is gonna win primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are within 2 pts of Taking down Rubio and DeSantis they need to stock to FL and just keep par with our House candidates

If Castro  runs in 2024 fine but TX Gov and Sen are LOST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Beto is getting crushed in every Gov poll for Gov, he would be a bad choice as the Nominee, otherwise he would have joined the race already

Fox news would crush him like they did when he ran for Prez, he never does Oprah interviews no more

We aren't defeating Abbot with Biden current poll numbers