Texas 2022 megathread

[LabourJersey]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

No legal restrictions on abortion means legal procedures on the third trimester and right up until just before birth, which is a particularly Twitter-brain and gross position to take, and definitely not supported by the majority of people in Texas.

Should note that O'Rourke didn't actually say there should be *NO* restrictions in the statement that the tweet is referring to.

That being said there is a need for him and other Democrats to emphasize that support for Roe does in fact mean restrictions on abortion past the second trimester (which a lot of people, especially us guys, don't realize because they don't know the details of abortion law and frankly don't know much about stages of pregnancy).

[Storr]

Greg Abbott blasts Biden for not starving babies:

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1524846628271796224?s=20&t=0ESddao0Gx...

[NewYorkExpress]

We've got an internal poll of the runoffs in a bunch of the downballot races courtesy of Defend Texas Liberty/CWS Research on behalf of Ken Paxton.

Attorney General

Ken Paxton 58%
George P. Bush 31%
Undecided 11%

Land Commissioner

Dawn Buckingham 34%
Tim Westley 18%
Undecided 48%

Railroad Commissioner

Wayne Christian 46%
Sarah Stogner 24%
Undecided 30%

[riceowl]

I have 0 hope for a Beto win but he's been hammering Abbott over the power grid failure during the freeze last year and now this....and it's only May.....

https://twitter.com/HoustonChron/status/1525245507890716673

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott is under 50 so there is a chance I keep telling users partisan trends don't apply in Midterms as in Prez especially when Rs underperform in KY in 2019abd Call recall 21

Why is NC tied because we won NC in 2018 a Midterm

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it just me or does the GOP have a lot of revruitement failures when it comes to the statehouse?

A few notable districts:

HD-36:

Heavily Hispanic seat located along the South Texas border and was Biden + 18. The GOP likely would still lose here in 2022 but it'd be worth it to at least run a canidate incase R RGV is real, especially since this is prolly one of the better parts of Hidalgo County for them when it comes to improvement.

HD-113

Another Biden + 20 seat but very different from HD-36. It's located in the Northeast Dallas suburbs and is incredibly diverse. Shifts in this district have generally been poor for the GOP but given the nature of 2022 and also the fact these seats seem to be a bit more R friendly down ballot it seems like it's at least worth running a canidate.

HD-144:

A suburban Houston metro seat that is heavily Hispanic and working class based around Pasadena. It was only Biden + 11 in 2020 and has had some decent shifts for the GOP as it was Clinton + 20.

HD-80:

A Clinton + 16 - Trump + 4 rural Hispanic seat in RGV. This is just really embarrassing given it's a Trump seat with very favorable shifts and it's a seat they'll want to win to try and hold the Dems in the minority.

Ultimately this isn't really that consequential as the GOP should pretty easily retain control but still just seems unhelpful in trying to get a bigger coalition. Dems had some mis-steps too with recruitment but didn't coutright throw away winnable races.

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto is pathetic.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1529522445174157312?s=20&t=eCgq3XytMun...
Also that's the Uvalde mayor calling Beto a "son of a b**ch"

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Good to know that Republicans think that a man demanding his public officials do something to try and stop children from being murdered in school is "pathetic." I'm sure if it was a Republican interrupting Gavin Newsom why he supports abortion, it would be treated the same way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter Beto is trailing Abbott by 6 pts the same as Hegar lost to Cornyn, the Environmenr has to dramatic improve in order for Beto to win

Rs will win their must win state TX, but in IL, PA, WI and MI it will be pivot in those races

[Politician]

LIVE LOOK AT BETO O'ROURKE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope users realize by now it's not a 413 map it never was and it's a 303 map in this Environment, but it's not an R nut map either Mark Kelly is safe

[Comrade Funk]

Holding public officials accountable for doing absolutely nothing is not "pathetic" or clownish. Regardless of his slim chances, we need more people standing up to politicians who refuse to do anything every time a classroom is massacred.

Sick of these useless press conferences which leads to nothing.  "Decorum" means nothing in regards to issues like this.

[Minnesota Mike]

How dare Beto demand action and call out those who have helped enable this countries insane gun culture. Doesn't he know now is the time for thought and prayers (and fundraisers like the one Abbot attended last night).

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/djtweets/status/1529531805711405056

And Beto is the clown?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Let’s all stop the gaslighting. It’s an absolutely devastating tragedy that nobody wants. It’s not the time to make it about himself. Even DeSantis and Biden were mature enough to realize this with the collapsed condo 

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Let’s all stop the gaslighting. It’s an absolutely devastating tragedy that nobody wants. It’s not the time to make it about himself. Even DeSantis and Biden were mature enough to realize this with the collapsed condo 

For all their faults, I don’t think that the GOP supports buildings collapsing. They’ve been implicitly supporting gun violence for at least the last decade though. Good on Beto. This is the Beto that I loved in 2018 and missed in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta say both sides have really bad optics for this race. Obv Beto prolly ain’t winning but I think people forget in theory Dems can win Texas on urban voters alone, simillar to how GA Dems didn’t really have to moderate to win

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyways though, I think it's time we discuss last night's election results since we didn't get to do that last night on this thread.

First off, Ken Paxton absolutely trounced George P. Bush by 36%, 68-32, signaling the end of the Bush dynasty in Texas. Bush only carried 5 counties, of which all but 4 were rural counties (and the last being Travis, home of Austin).

For the Democratic runoff for AG, Rochelle Garza beat former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski 62.7-37.3. The only metro area Jaworski did well in was unsurprisingly Houston, as Galveston is part of the Houston metro. Unfortunately aside from Houston and many rural counties, Jaworski didn't do so hot.

For lieutenant governor, Mike Collier ran away with the nomination in a slightly more competitive race, only winning by 9%. Beckley's strength seemed to be in south Texas, including the San Antonio, El Paso, Laredo, and RGV metro areas, along with many deep red rural counties.

In the railroad commissioner runoff, incumbent Wayne Christian demolished Sarah Stogner by exactly 30%, carrying all but a few counties. Funny enough, Stogner's biggest prize seemed to be the Dallas exurban county of Navarro (home to Corsicana), where Stogner won despite it nearly being an exact tie.

Trump-endorsed candidate Dawn Buckingham trounced Tim Westley for the land commissioner runoff. Slightly disappointing since I voted for Westley (Buckingham barely even had an issues page), but Buckingham's victory is not surprising in the slightest.

What was surprising to me however was the TX HD-63 race, where Ben Bumgarner absolutely trounced Jeff Younger, the father of James Younger, the child whose mother fought for custody to transition him into a transgender girl named Luna.

Lastly, in a victory for me as a Harris County resident, Alexandra del Moral Mealer trounced Vidal Martinez and clinched the nomination for Harris County Judge. Considering the rapid rise in crime in Houston and Harris County, and Lina Hidalgo having scandals of her own, this could potentially be a GOP flip in a county that's surprisingly not as dem-leaning for its size.

Let me know your thoughts on these races!

[wbrocks67]

Good for Beto. Abbott is a total clown and that's putting it nicely. He deserved to be called out. Now is not the time for decorum. That ship sailed many school shootings ago.

[2016]

Good for Beto. Abbott is a total clown and that's putting it nicely. He deserved to be called out. Now is not the time for decorum. That ship sailed many school shootings ago.

Texas will never elect a Progressive like Beto who has no shame.

[wbrocks67]

Good for Beto. Abbott is a total clown and that's putting it nicely. He deserved to be called out. Now is not the time for decorum. That ship sailed many school shootings ago.

Texas will never elect a Progressive like Beto who has no shame.

Abbott has become a far-right nut with no shame and yet he was re-elected.... so, you're point?

[MillennialModerate]

Both look horrible.

Beto is right in his point - but turning it into a message for him is a terrible look.

[wbrocks67]

Both look horrible.

Beto is right in his point - but turning it into a message for him is a terrible look.

Where did he turn it into a message for himself?

[Oakvale]

Both look horrible.

Beto is right in his point - but turning it into a message for him is a terrible look.

Unironically doing the "not a good look!" when someone expresses their revulsion at yet another preventable massacre enabled by a deeply diseased political culture? Not a good look!

Beto has always been basically a good guy. His problem is he's the ultimate Gen Xer who operates primarily on vibes, which is why his presidential campaign was based on the philosophy of "let's just wing it" and puttered out fast. But I don't have any doubt that his disgust here is genuine and it's a particularly grimy Atlas moment to immediately assume it's a cynical political stunt (we know, of course, that a gun control platform is a surefire way to win an election in Texas).

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.