Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is over and it has been for awhile, TX is the most pro gun state in the nation, McCaughey was right not to run in this Environment for Gov Abbott wins by 6

[THG]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

[Real Texan Politics]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

The only people who cheered on this stunt are the people already supporting him and voting for him anyways.

[THG]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

The only people who cheered on this stunt are the people already supporting him and voting for him anyways.

Aka people in Austin and urban Dallas proper.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

With all the people in that room, yes I'm sure you somehow knew exactly who was booing him and who wasn't. Just stop.

Also tbf Uvalde is still an R County that will prolly vote for Cornyn

Might explain why it has a R mayor who has hardline attitudes on immigration.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is still Abbott race to lose but Beto in the last poll was down by only six points and FL Crist is only down 3

[wbrocks67]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

[THG]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

[wbrocks67]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

You can't compare 2016 to 2022 at this point, especially given everything that has happened since then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is losing by 6 and Crist is losing by 3 the same map as 2020 but you can compare 2022 to 2016 Hilary got 6 to 62M for Rs abd in a 303 map scenario it's 65/60M

[THG]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

You can't compare 2016 to 2022 at this point, especially given everything that has happened since then.

I agree.

2016 was a neutral/slightly R favorable year. 2022 will be a red tsunami.

Oh and the 2020 riots and rising crime rates have made the country more pro-gun compared to where it was in 2016. Reminder that such vile events also happened in 2016 (Pulse) which were due to the actions of a bunch of mentally ill lunatics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

You can't compare 2016 to 2022 at this point, especially given everything that has happened since then.

I agree.

2016 was a neutral/slightly R favorable year. 2022 will be a red tsunami.

Oh and the 2020 riots and rising crime rates have made the country more pro-gun compared to where it was in 2016. Reminder that such vile events also happened in 2016 (Pulse) which were due to the actions of a bunch of mentally ill lunatics.

I put the polls in the threads
Kemp and Schmidt may win but Lake in AZ is down 50/45 in Hobbs internal

CCM, Sisolak, Golden, Warnock, Hobbs, and Kelly are leading 50/45 it's a 303 map  at least in S we may lose the H due to TX/FL

[Real Texan Politics]

Seems like Beto is doubling down on "hell yes"

Is he trying to lose Harris County at this rate?
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1531721138790875146?s=20&t=acdvyPrmru4WgN...

[GoTfan]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

If the US has moved rightward on guns after watching little kids die, then that says a lot of things about the US, none of them good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like Beto is doubling down on "hell yes"

Is he trying to lose Harris County at this rate?
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1531721138790875146?s=20&t=acdvyPrmru4WgN...

Speaking of Harris County, why in your view is Lina Hidalgo seen disfavorably. I’m obviously not in the Texas media market but a brief Google search yields press that converse that overall is decent if not favorable. Given the nature of the year and downballot lag she def seems vulnerable either way, but why is she particularly disliked?

Also in your view will Rs match (or exceed) Trumps performance in minority communities in Houston in 2022? % margin wise, it was stronger than even 2014 Gov or Sen in many areas, though some attribute the rightwards shift to more people showing up overall. Would be so cursed if Aboott wins Harris and Beto wins Fort Bend which actually seems possible

[Real Texan Politics]

Speaking of Harris County, why in your view is Lina Hidalgo seen disfavorably. I’m obviously not in the Texas media market but a brief Google search yields press that converse that overall is decent if not favorable. Given the nature of the year and downballot lag she def seems vulnerable either way, but why is she particularly disliked?

Also in your view will Rs match (or exceed) Trumps performance in minority communities in Houston in 2022? % margin wise, it was stronger than even 2014 Gov or Sen in many areas, though some attribute the rightwards shift to more people showing up overall. Would be so cursed if Aboott wins Harris and Beto wins Fort Bend which actually seems possible

This may be a decent article on her controversy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/09/lina-hidalgo-texas-democrats-future-midterms-00031055

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good after Beto beats Abbott whom he is six pts back she can run against Cruz in 24

[ProgressiveModerate]

Speaking of Harris County, why in your view is Lina Hidalgo seen disfavorably. I’m obviously not in the Texas media market but a brief Google search yields press that converse that overall is decent if not favorable. Given the nature of the year and downballot lag she def seems vulnerable either way, but why is she particularly disliked?

Also in your view will Rs match (or exceed) Trumps performance in minority communities in Houston in 2022? % margin wise, it was stronger than even 2014 Gov or Sen in many areas, though some attribute the rightwards shift to more people showing up overall. Would be so cursed if Aboott wins Harris and Beto wins Fort Bend which actually seems possible

This may be a decent article on her controversy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/09/lina-hidalgo-texas-democrats-future-midterms-00031055

Ngl these seem like relatively small controversies considering that most don’t care about. Is it different on the ground?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

I don’t think Atlas Red Avatars are ready for when Beto loses by 13-18 points.

That stunt of his will not play very well outside of Austin.

These types of comments make no sense. You're living in your own bubble if you don't think people are fed up and have had enough with the lack of any type of common sense gun control - and the objectively terrible way Abbott has handled his free for all gun issues for years. It's not just "Austin" who is upset and glad that somebody finally spoke up and called him out on the issue.

The country has overall moved pretty significantly to the right on the issue of guns in the past few decades. And exploiting people’s deaths for a political stunt plays pretty poorly nearly everywhere in Texas.

See how the background checks ballot initiative did in Maine or Nevada in 2016 (two pro gun states like Texas…. but also much bluer than Texas, especially Maine).

I’m definitely not the one living in a bubble here.

I am pro-gun but implying the country is for the status quo is not true. Between 80%-95% of Americans consistently support background checks.

Maine has a long history of voting against out-of-state funded initiatives.

[The Mikado]

FWIW I put safe R but my expectation is that Abbott wins by 8-10, which is actually a shift away from his +13 last time in 2018 and in the context of a national shift towards the Rs any result worse than matching 2018 is a pretty negative trend for him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW I put safe R but my expectation is that Abbott wins by 8-10, which is actually a shift away from his +13 last time in 2018 and in the context of a national shift towards the Rs any result worse than matching 2018 is a pretty negative trend for him.

It'll be very interesting to see if he does better or worse than 2018, and how he does comparatively by region. In 2018, he was a less controversial and well known figure running against a nobody but this time he has become much more polarizing and is running against O Rourke.

In 2018, his biggest overperformance of Cruz was in the wealthy affluent white suburbs such as University Park in Dallas and Hunts Creek Village in Houston. How he performs in these communities in 2022 will tell a lot about how stable Dem gains are in these communities.

When compared with 2020 Pres, He obviosuly underperformed Trump big time in RGV but also significant chunks of Houston. Still had very dramatic overperformances in basically every suburb though (up to 40 points in some cases!)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's said they are forgoing TX and FL instead on AZ, and Ga as wave insurance

[wbrocks67]

Polling coming today from CBS/YouGov

https://twitter.com/cbs11jack/status/1542493564977954816

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Ryan, Beasley, Crist, Demings and Beto to pull off the upsets but they can win with R state legislatures as a check

I call it now it's only 5 pts that within MOE 5/6 pts

[Duke of York]

I expect Ryan, Beasley, Crist, Demings and Beto to pull off the upsets but they can win with R state legislatures as a check

I call it now it's only 5 pts that within MOE 5/6 pts

I hope your right.