OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Blair]

Will be the ultimate lol if Democrats are willing to waste £70 million to McGrath but can’t get £10 million the Ohio Democratic Party to enable it to get some field organisers.

Tim Ryan literally just raised $9.1M alone last Q (vs $1M for Vance).... I think he'll be fine.

You’ll see I specified that money needs to go to the state party or people who know how to organise rather than just the campaigns or random super Pacs!

... and Tim Ryan has served in congress for what, two decades or something? I think his team probably knows how to organize.

Ha I can list a number of long serving politicians who couldn’t run a bath let alone a competent campaign. I think it’s a bit naive to assume because someone is in Congress for X number of years they’re good at running campaigns. But there are exceptions and we’re not disagreeing because I’m sure Tim Ryan is much better than others- my point is that democrats need to invest in state parties and organisers rather than relying on TV ads. The most effective state parties for the democrats in recent years (Georgia, Nevada, NH) understood this and didn’t just rely on state politicians.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Lol you are a DOOMER watch on EDay Ryan wins you were wrong about GA , you had Rs winning GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.

Do you know anyone can win on EDay, that's why I don't make R nut maps, provision ballots, that's how Biden overcame Trump and Warnock and Ossoff won, they didn't win outright they had to wait on provision ballots 299 K statewide

They were losing until all the votes were counted , some are kicked out but most are counted and Beshear and Evers won on Provision ballots too, Beshear was losing until provision were counted

As you recall Walker was leading Evers too until provision were counted, we don't all win our races outright

The maps are blank on EDay no ratings, just remember the ratings had us gaining seats 240 H and 55 seats we ended up at 50 seats and 222 the same thing can happen to Rs underperform and some users need to get it out of their head it's only a 303 map, it's not enshrined in the Constitution we can get 413

[OSR stands with Israel]

I honestly wonder if Vance doesn't even want to be a Senator at this point. I'm not even sure why he ran in the first place.

Peter Thiel

[Roll Roons]

It's funny. At the start of the 2016 cycle, everyone thought Portman would face a really tough race against Ted Strickland so the NRSC earmarked a ton of money in anticipation of having to spend in the expensive state.

As it turns out, Portman ran such a good campaign (and Strickland ran such a bad one) that the race was effectively over by Labor Day, allowing millions of dollars to be freed up for states like MO, NC, PA and WI where other incumbent Republicans won by much narrower margins.

I wonder if the reverse happens, where Ryan's strong campaign and Vance's basically nonexistent one forces the NRSC to divert money from AZ/GA/NV/NH/PA/WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Actually we have a better chance in NC and OH than WI because Johnson is the incumbent and NC andOH are open seats and not only that Oz, Budd and Vance are untested, WI I s the tipping pt race but we can see split voting especially in OH DeWine will certainly get 6 percent of the 12 Blk vote while Vance get 2 percent, obviously Trump won OH because he didn't win Minorities he closed the gender gap but white females like Ryan more than Vance

Blks can make the difference in Ryan winning 51/49 with Vance getting 1 percent unlike DeWine 6/7 percent, Vance is more unpopular than Trump in the Blk community, when Blk sees Trump they think celebrity but Blks see tax cuts for rich with Vance

Vance wants to ban porn and expunge impeachment from Trump record and looks like Eric TRUMP

[wbrocks67]

It's funny. At the start of the 2016 cycle, everyone thought Portman would face a really tough race against Ted Strickland so the NRSC earmarked a ton of money in anticipation of having to spend in the expensive state.

As it turns out, Portman ran such a good campaign (and Strickland ran such a bad one) that the race was effectively over by Labor Day, allowing millions of dollars to be freed up for states like MO, NC, PA and WI where other incumbent Republicans won by much narrower margins.

I wonder if the reverse happens, where Ryan's strong campaign and Vance's basically nonexistent one forces the NRSC to divert money from AZ/GA/NV/NH/PA/WI.

Well, and the crazy thing is, Vance and Oz, despite now both getting tons of negative stories from insiders for weeks now of having run bad campaigns so far, don't seem to be.... changing anything? Like if this was May or June, you'd be a little more understanding in them changing things around. And of course they still can, but it's August at this point, and neither campaigns seem to be really on a course correction yet.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.

On the other hand Portman may not have retired if this was a Trump midterm which would mean the senate race would still be Safe R.

[LabourJersey]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.

On the other hand Portman may not have retired if this was a Trump midterm which would mean the senate race would still be Safe R.

If Trump was President right now the Democrats would have a pretty sizable national ballot lead. I don't see how Portman would be safe in this scenario, especially if Tim Ryan was running.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.

On the other hand Portman may not have retired if this was a Trump midterm which would mean the senate race would still be Safe R.

If Trump was President right now the Democrats would have a pretty sizable national ballot lead. I don't see how Portman would be safe in this scenario, especially if Tim Ryan was running.

John Bolton confirms that Rs are losing in PA, NC and OH Sen he has Walker ahead but  Survey USA has Warnock up 10



https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-bolton-trump-poison-political-suicide_n_62e737a0e4b0c60a56695fb8


Why do Ds question good polls guess what Beshear, Evers, Warnock and Ossoff didn't win outright they won on provisions ballots I keep telling users this, there are 300 K statewide Provisions ballots, but users think close races goes to Rs it didn't with GA, KY and WI last time


We haven't lost the H yet and Manchin says wait for Ds to lose control before the media talks about how bad Biden is, but media talking pts keep polling Trump ahead of Biden and D's losing the H the maps are blank on EDay

[wbrocks67]

Vance finally going up on TV

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1554468831074164736

[Yoda]

I saw an ad for the first time yesterday attacking Vance for his phony charity that was supposed to help opioid addicts, but in reality did not fund one addiction center or help one addict. Pretty bad if the issue gets legs. Ryan should seize on it as well as Roe/the story of the 10 year old girl having to leave the state after being raped.

[wbrocks67]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think Dems will win here but it def helps them create a bit of better path to 52 seats where they wouldn't need to worry so much about Manchin and Sinema.

I wish more Dems would do the Fetterman strategy as we've seen it be very successful at times on teh GOP side. The challenge is after a while you have to mix it up a bit but keep finding new ways to paint your opponent as out of touch and disengeious. It also seems like a good way to add charisma to yourself, and I worry that folks such as CCM's relative lack of charisma could cost Dems the Senate.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1554941566720118785?t=2NCEBsgAt_Ti32S7bRyHpA...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

[SnowLabrador]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

I don't like Vance, but I have to agree with this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is gonna be similar not to Strickland v Portman but Brown v Josh Mandel 2012 Brown almost lost to Josh Mandel and was polling 46/41 just like Ryan but Brown didn't have to contend with DeWine until 2018 whom is gonna win like Reynolds

This isn't a Lean R race it's a Tossup the ratings had D's gaining seats in 2020 and we all know Rs won ratings aren't the end all be all Steve Konraki have WI, PA, OH, NC and FL as Tossups

The maps are blank and just because Rs win the H in 22, we can win 15 seats back in 24, it's not permanent and after 2o16 Rs had 230 seats and D's wiped 15 seats away in 2018

More people are gonna vote in Prez Elections, two things you have to remember Partisan trends don't matter in Midterms and more people vote in Prez Elections otherwise Tested and Manchin would have lost in 2018 not just Brown and Beasley had a chance Cooper has a 60 percent Approvals that's why NC is close now, and it's not supposed to be Budd and Vance should be up 8 in this Environment and Oz supposed to up 5 they're not

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

Vance is “from Ohio” the same way Hillary is “from Arkansas”

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

Vance is “from Ohio” the same way Hillary is “from Arkansas”

lmao.. such a false and nonsensical equivalence.

Hillary was born and raised in a Chicago suburb.

Vance was born in Middletown, and lived there until he left to join the military.. he's a Ohioan.

[wbrocks67]

If that Center Street PAC/Momentive AI poll is even remotely in the same universe of some reality, Vance is pushing those early "I'm just a nice guy from Ohio" ads bc he severely needs to clean up his image with voters.

Favs:
Tim Ryan: 48/23 (with 29% neutral)
JD Vance: 28/46 (with 27% neutral)

Those are some Dr Oz-like #s.

[Brittain33]

Vance is a fake Appalachian, not a fake Ohioan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is a fake Appalachian, not a fake Ohioan.

As I have said many times the Rs aren't offering anything but tax cuts the last time they passed stimulus checks under Trump what are they offering to the poor other than keeping taxes on Corporate the same and they blocked Voting Rights

Trump said he was gonna cut Govt employees that's why there was a 2019 shut down and we know Post office have been trying to get rid of Saturday Mail

DeSantis wants to come in and cut even more taxes

[2016]

Olowakandi,
Sabato has OH-SEN still as Likely Republican.

Ryan has been on the Airwaves in OH nonstop.

This Race will change dramatically into Vance favour after the Summer.

Ohioans do not care about Abortion, etc. They care about the Economy, Jobs, etc. and those are set to worsen in the coming months. Ryan has been voting 99.8 % of the time with the Socialist Biden Agenda.

And that Bill that just passed Congress via Reconciliation won't sit well with Ohio Voters.

New Polling shows a Plurality of Voters nationally think it will worsen the Inflation. The US will go into Recession early 2023.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

Vance is “from Ohio” the same way Hillary is “from Arkansas”

lmao.. such a false and nonsensical equivalence.

Hillary was born and raised in a Chicago suburb.

Vance was born in Middletown, and lived there until he left to join the military.. he's a Ohioan.

Vance fled Ohio for the Silicon Valley the instant he got the sliver of an opportunity to do so and didn’t look back until he decided to try and carpetbag his way back here to run for Senate.  He’s about as much of an Ohioan as Jim Harbaugh.