OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[OSR stands with Israel]

This sucks , as he was one of the best senators

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

With all the comparisons of Ohio now being what Missouri was 10 years ago , remember 10 years ago the GOP ran Todd Akin for the senate and lost that race.


While I have this race as Likely R, Josh Mandel has the potential to be the Todd Akin of this race and blow it

[OSR stands with Israel]

With all the comparisons of Ohio now being what Missouri was 10 years ago , remember 10 years ago the GOP ran Todd Akin for the senate and lost that race.


While I have this race as Likely R, Josh Mandel has the potential to be the Todd Akin of this race and blow it

Akin was running in a Democratic leaning year against an incumbent where polarization was far lower than it is now. OH isn't a swing state anymore and a Democratic midterm won't flip it.

MO was also not that Republican at that time although it was trending GOP. Obama almost won MO in 2008 and had voted in a Democratic governor by double-digits twice. It was more purple than OH is now.

Romney won MO by a larger margin than Trump won MO, and I am not saying its purple just that a Todd Akin situation seems possible in this race

[OSR stands with Israel]

With all the comparisons of Ohio now being what Missouri was 10 years ago , remember 10 years ago the GOP ran Todd Akin for the senate and lost that race.


While I have this race as Likely R, Josh Mandel has the potential to be the Todd Akin of this race and blow it

Akin was running in a Democratic leaning year against an incumbent where polarization was far lower than it is now. OH isn't a swing state anymore and a Democratic midterm won't flip it.

MO was also not that Republican at that time although it was trending GOP. Obama almost won MO in 2008 and had voted in a Democratic governor by double-digits twice. It was more purple than OH is now.

Romney won MO by a larger margin than Trump won MO, and I am not saying its purple just that a Todd Akin situation seems possible in this race

Romney won MO by single digits while Trump won MO by 15%+ twice. I don't see how what Mandel is tweeting is going to hurt him. With this level of polarization, no one will be swayed to vote for the Democrat in OH.

Im comparing todays OH to 2012 Missouri not 2012 MO to 2022 MO. Its not Mandel tweets, he just seems like someone who can self desturct like Akin and I dont have this race as tossup as I have it as Likely R(Safe R with Vance or Timken)

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't like Mandel, and I find him a weasel, but this is disappointing to hear about Vance.

What is disappointing?

Having a $10k fundraiser with Peter Theil.

Vance literally worked with Theil for years and Masters is literally a protege of Theil . They are basically only In the race cause of how much Theil has backed their campaigns

[OSR stands with Israel]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Oh I completely disagree, this is exactly what the Republican electorate wants to hear IMO.

If it was Cruz would have been the nominee in 2016

[OSR stands with Israel]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

Pat was way to the right of Vance on economic issues. Buchanan accused HW of being too left wing on economics

[OSR stands with Israel]

I actually think Mandel is seriously misreading the Republican electorate if he thinks this is the stuff he needs to go all in with excessive, performative, and hilariously unnatural-sounding/insincere pandering. It’s like he just read a transcript of Pat Buchanan's 1992 RNC speech and thought "yes, Pat Buchanan talked about culture wars, and culture wars are what propelled Trump to the presidency, so this is what my party's base wants to hear in the year 2022."

He’s just not very good at this, and I’m even less confident about him winning the R primary now. I mean, "Judeo-Christian values"? Seriously?

Vance is the most similar to Pat Buchanan ideologically, he even shouted out his book at one of the candidate forums.

Mandel's rhetoric seems too dumb to be taken from a Buchanan speech or anything like it. The more apparent inspiration seems to be Trump's tweets.

Pat was way to the right of Vance on economic issues. Buchanan accused HW of being too left wing on economics

On what issues do they divert? They are both protectionist on trade, acknowledging the left wing social influence of corporations and universities, and supporting of blue collar jobs/manufacturing. Vance himself isn't that left of the median on economic issues.

Pat Buchanan slammed HW over and over on his tax policy, and was for massively cutting welfare spending


http://www.4president.org/brochures/1992/patbuchanan1992brochure.htm

4. Cut Tax Rates. We will fight for cuts in federal tax rates on investment, saving and income alike, to make America the most attractive economic climate in the industrial world, and to create millions of new jobs, right here in the United States.

 

5. Veto Tax Hikes. We will keep the promises George Bush broke. Any congressional tax increase (or pay hike) will be vetoed and stopped dead in its tracks.

 

6. Freeze Federal Spending Under George Bush, social spending has soared faster than at any time in 60 years, and America has run the largest deficits in her history. Instead of down-sizing General Motors, we should down-size the federal bureaucracy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is so dumb
https://mobile.twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1513241867726512133?cxt=HHwWioCzkcLdj...

Where's the lie?

We knew who the winners were in 2008 and 2012 a few hours before polls closed . It’s just that every other election since 2000 has had the tipping point state be decided by 2.5 points or less and half of them by under a point .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Vance is better than Mandel

[OSR stands with Israel]

If this was a 6th year itch , Ryan probably would have had a chance of a huge upset here given not only Vance but how atrocious the entire primary field was here . Though Portman may not have retired in that case in which case it would still be Safe R

[OSR stands with Israel]

If this was a 6th year itch , Ryan probably would have had a chance of a huge upset here given not only Vance but how atrocious the entire primary field was here . Though Portman may not have retired in that case in which case it would still be Safe R

Given how far right Ohio has drifted, it's possible Republicans would still be favored in a GOP midterm, and even if Ryan were to pull it off, it'd be an obvious rental.

Oh absolutely but it could be the GOP's version of 2014 CO in this case . With Mandel it could have been even a repeat of 2012 MO in that case

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tim Ryan is a great example of how fortune can often favor the bold.  Beginning with 2006, every cycle he was being heavily recruited to run for Governor or Senator, but Strickland and Brown boxed him out in 2006.  He kept waiting for a comparable national environment and basically blew it.  He should’ve either run for Senate in 2016.  That was the best shot he was gonna get and he turned it down.  

He wasn’t gonna beat Portman in 2016

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/j-d-vance-on-abortion-states-need-to-figure-this-stuff-out-143672389727

[OSR stands with Israel]

I honestly wonder if Vance doesn't even want to be a Senator at this point. I'm not even sure why he ran in the first place.

Peter Thiel

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.

On the other hand Portman may not have retired if this was a Trump midterm which would mean the senate race would still be Safe R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the underlying fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

I never said they’d lose it, it’s just that I have a hard time believing Ohio will swing 5-6 points from 2020, which many people seem to genuinely believe and that Wisconsin+Pennsylvania swing right at the same time. Anyways I still have Johnson favored in WI and think Oz stands a very good chance of winning PA, even if he’d probably narrowly lose it unless his campaign improves. Also at this current moment, there is clearly a swing towards Democrats, which may be temporary and may fade by November, but I just refuse to believe “candidate quality” can actually come close to reversing an 8 point margin, especially when even currently rosy GCB polling shows a 3 pt shift rightwards from 2020 (in terms of House margin) and a 4.5 pt shift in terms of presidential margin. Vance is an awful candidate, yes, but he should still win by at least 5 unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Yah Vance certainly could have lost it in a Trump 6 year itch but I just cannot see a scenario where he loses in a Biden midterm. Vance losing would be like if the Democrats lost VA Senate in 2018(If say Kaine retired or something).

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

The worst case scenario for the GOP is a MO 2016 redux imo