OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1371489486438342662?s=19

Good to see horrible people standing with other horrible people

How much does this mean, though? Vance seems like a sort-of-strong candidate on paper if only for money and name recognition, but it seems like his brand of "pull yourself up by the bootstraps" conservatism is a little distinct from the "hail Lord Trump" brand that's the main style for the GOP right now.

Like do OH political people think Vance is a paper tiger or a potential nominee?

[LabourJersey]

Wow, that ad was terrible. The awkward, obviously scripted dialogue...the "trying to explain complex issues to a child in a way that he could understand and still failing" angle...the obviously green-screened factory shot...felt more like a Tim Robinson sketch than an actual ad. People won't care about the nitty gritty of this thing, but Tim Ryan has got to be one of the most awkward people in politics.

The fact that he looks like Tim Robinson also doesn't help

[LabourJersey]

Vance is the future of the GOP. Economic populism and non-religious/non-preachy cultural conservatism. Vance is heavily underestimated.

Vance wrote a very preachy book and is religious. Your comment just isn't accurate

[LabourJersey]

I think I speak for all of us when I say, what are these salacious lurid and unvetted rumours about Josh Mandel? (Popcorn eating GIF).

I don't know the exact rumors, but it is public knowledge that Mandel divorced his wife a couple years ago, and was dating or is currently dating a staffer on his campaign. Multiple people have left his campaign because of a toxic work environment caused by his relationship. I'm guessing there's more to this story

[LabourJersey]

Vance is right.

A Vance-Ryan race is a tossup.

A Mandel-Ryan race is Lean D.

A Timken/Dolan/Gibbons race is Safe R.

I am fine with Vance in Congress, he may bridge the divide with the black working class and white working class. Don't be surprised if he appeals to Black pastors.

I wish this was true but it absolutely is not.

Whoever wins the GOP primary is strongly, strongly favored to win.

[LabourJersey]

It’s a shame this wasn’t in a Dem friendly year. This would be a Dem pickup.

I always liked Ryan even when people were calling him stale and bland. Not to mention Vance is a POS

Yeah, on paper this is pretty much an ideal race for the Ohio Democrats - moderate-ish Democrat with a proven track record and working class support vs a Republican who is a complete phony and backed by Peter Thiel.

If this were even a neutral cycle, I'd probably say that Ryan has the advantage.

It sucks that the national environment will pull Vance over the finish line.

On the other hand Portman may not have retired if this was a Trump midterm which would mean the senate race would still be Safe R.

If Trump was President right now the Democrats would have a pretty sizable national ballot lead. I don't see how Portman would be safe in this scenario, especially if Tim Ryan was running.