OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1371489486438342662?s=19

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Who cares, Tim Ryan can compete with anyone

Safe R, whether Ryan runs or not..

[AncestralDemocrat.]

A bunch of polls dropped showing a tight race with a lot of undecided. Acton outperforms Tim Ryan and is ahead of Vance who seems to be the weekest republican.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1374145628129914887

PPP..

Junk it.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/wsteaks/status/1375169046375772167?s=19

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1422940981960249354?s=19

lol.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1514954937960177668

And Mandel tried to release a fake poll here

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1514671343052242951?t=mQJYgg1_OSATzmSadqC...
Anyways, hello Sen Vance

Fantastic endorsement !

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

Most likely to lose a GE..? It's Safe R either way.

The possibility of a republican losing Ohio in this environment shouldn't even be discussed seriously.

The most recent GCB was D+3, now I expect the Republicans to win both this senate race and the eventual total vote, but acting like this is some R+20 year is ridiculous. It’s more than possible that a guy as unlikeable, inexperienced and impossible to relate to like Vance could lose - even if I don’t personally expect him to. Whilst there’s no chance even a creep like Mandel would lose it.

If anyone in this race has Akin/Moore style skeletons in his closet, it’ll be Vance.

A +3 R Generic Ballot is virtually unheard of in April of a midterm year.. the GOP vote tends to consolidate in the fall, and there is still a ton of undecideds which are likely to lean R.

Even if it eventually ends up +3, that's 6 points to the right of 2020...Ohio is Safe R.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Vance's post-Trump endorsement internal polling is pathetic. He's not even outside the margin of error for beating Mandel.

I maintain whichever Republican does make it through the primary will win the general election, but Vance is a weak candidate. With Club For Growth rallying around Mandel despite the Trump endorsement, these final days will get ugly.

Democrats might as well enjoy it!

We've literally had one poll where 47% of the primary electorate was yet unaware of the endorsement.. and Vance was leading by several points.

Trust a Atlas user to be this hyperbolic.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1519849641965244417?t=C-wSaaigryzPLBopR9...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

If Josh Mandel is doing performance art then what is JD Vance doing? He's doing the same thing. It's clear Vance believes nothing he says.

How exactly is it clear..? Vance's shift in views coincided with his conversion to Catholicism.. abundantly clear he he had a legitimate change in world view.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Am increasingly hearing rumblings that Matt Dolan is increasing his polling numbers very aggressively. Nobody outright predicting a win yet, but many predicting last-minute attention and a "Never Trumper" media circus.

He is increasing his poll numbers (from recent independent and internal data such as Fox and Fabrizio)... from a single digit base. Dolan will receive around 15%, and we'll be wondering what all the hype was about.. 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Dolan would automatically become one of the most liberal republicans in the GOP conference.. voted against the Ohio heartbeat bill, supports same sex marriage, voted against a ban on down syndrome abortion.

... just like Rob Portman? Hell, both DeWine and Kasich issued executive orders protecting state employees from anti-LGBT discrimination in the workplace.

You people are insane.

Did I even suggest I oppose gay marriage.. I'm just making a statement overall, that he's socially liberal in comparison to the republican norm.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

👀
https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1521236861615808512

Mate,
I wouldn't be surprised if Dolan pulls off an Upset given how Vance & Mandel were going at each other down the homestretch. Both are downright disgusting.

Dolan would put this Race out of reach for Ryan in the GE I think.

The race would be out of reach no matter who the R candidate is. And I actually think Dolan would perform worse than Vance because he would struggle to turnout the base, especially with DeWine being the other major statewide candidate.

I wouldn't worry about the Base. They will come out no matter what given that Democrats and particular President Biden are so toxic this year. And Ryan voted 98 % of the Time with Pelosi these last two years.

I am going to make a BOLD PREDICTION that Demings in FL, Beasley in NC will perform better than Ryan in their States in November.

Dolan is basically a moderate democrat on social issues.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Vance surge suggests Kemp could have a hard race coming once Trump steps in Georgia.

Ohio is tailor made for trump. Georgia is not. It won’t work everywhere.

I mean it will work in Georgia for other statewide races.. Raffensperger is likely DOA.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Lean/Likely R

Ryan is a good candidate. Sad that he had to run in 2022. He would have probably lost in 2016 because Clinton was on the ticket

Safe R.. Ohio 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

in a D+8 year (2018) popular incumbent Sherrod Brown had to spend over 30 MILLION to under perform his polling by large margins against a heavily disliked candidate.

Tim Ryan is gonna get boat raced.

Everybody except for delusional clowns like OC and Minnesota Mike knows this.

OC is not a clown.. he's just a long-term and very committed troll.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/plunderbund/status/1545424761311870983
This is legitimately so atrocious it has to be some kind of paperwork quirk or error, right?

It's first quarter.. i.e before he was the nominee.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/plunderbund/status/1545424761311870983
This is legitimately so atrocious it has to be some kind of paperwork quirk or error, right?

It's first quarter.. i.e before he was the nominee.

That doesn’t make that number any better

It's a poor number, but obviously it's not reflective of his fundraising during the general campaign which the tweet was trying to suggest.. he was languishing in single digits during the primary before trump endorsed him.. which this fundraising period covers.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1554941566720118785?t=2NCEBsgAt_Ti32S7bRyHpA...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

Vance is “from Ohio” the same way Hillary is “from Arkansas”

lmao.. such a false and nonsensical equivalence.

Hillary was born and raised in a Chicago suburb.

Vance was born in Middletown, and lived there until he left to join the military.. he's a Ohioan.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

Vance is “from Ohio” the same way Hillary is “from Arkansas”

lmao.. such a false and nonsensical equivalence.

Hillary was born and raised in a Chicago suburb.

Vance was born in Middletown, and lived there until he left to join the military.. he's a Ohioan.

Vance fled Ohio for the Silicon Valley the instant he got the sliver of an opportunity to do so and didn’t look back until he decided to try and carpetbag his way back here to run for Senate.  He’s about as much of an Ohioan as Jim Harbaugh.

He literally joined the military before he went to silicon valley..?

I get it.. democrats hate upward mobility, especially amongst the WWC but maybe go beyond the veneer of hackery for once.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

You're so gullible. You're playing right into the hands of a multibillionaire, Peter Thiel. You think you're supporting some populist who cares about you? Really? Yeah, sure, J.D. Vance is genuinely an Ohioan. But he's also a wealthy venture capitalist. And when he's elected, see what he does for the working class. Spoiler alert: NOTHING. He'll vote for tax cuts like the 2017 one for the ultra-rich. When it comes to healthcare for the poor (including the miners), when it comes to Medicaid and Social Security, when it comes to food stamps, when it comes to infrastructure, he will deliver ZERO to the working classes of OH or WV or any part of the country. I'll tell you something: you need to decide what matters more - culture wars like those over LGBT+ rights and abortion, or economic, bread-and-butter issues, issues of healthcare and taxes. In other words, do you prioritise wedge issues the top 1% creates to divide the bottom 99%, to divert their attention, to keep them fighting amongst each other, and to let their common enemy, the ultra-rich, get away; or issues that would help the 99% rise up against the 1% just slightly, that would lessen the massive, yawning wealth gap that has expanded massively? Do you want a senator who will support the unemployed and the poor (including the miners you claim to support in your signature), or one who just votes for tax cuts for the donor class, for the 1%, for literal multibillionaires like Thiel? J.D. Vance may be Ohioan. But he is NOT populist and he is BY NO MEANS for the working class. He is for the ultra-ultra-rich. Is that the man you really want to support? In that case, you're both pathetic and gullible (though your endorsements in your signature told me that quite clearly already).

I won't support a unashamed social liberal in Tim Ryan.

Sure if he expressed some independence on social issues I would consider it.. but no, over his tenure in congress he's become increasingly a party line voter.

Vance's wealth doesn't particularly matter.. upwards mobility is to be applauded and J.D has come from WWC roots.