2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Roll Roons]

IE’s last update:
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1588239519022600193?cxt=HHwWgsCi2a_bx4...

[Unelectable Bystander]

I'm pretty much done caring about polls for now, but one thing I will say is that weighting polls more heavily based on how closely they hew to your priors is pretty asinine and no better than just ignoring polls altogether. It's one thing if it contradicts the fundamentals by some ludicrous amount, like that rumored poll that showed that Thune was in danger or whatever, but you shouldn't just chuck polls like that YouGov one.

Hard disagree. There’s no good poll that has a D +14 electorate and Biden +6 recall. That’s not about priors, that just makes no sense. It’s false equivalence to just throw these in the average and frankly no better than junk GCB polls from Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

[GALeftist]

I'm pretty much done caring about polls for now, but one thing I will say is that weighting polls more heavily based on how closely they hew to your priors is pretty asinine and no better than just ignoring polls altogether. It's one thing if it contradicts the fundamentals by some ludicrous amount, like that rumored poll that showed that Thune was in danger or whatever, but you shouldn't just chuck polls like that YouGov one.

Hard disagree. There’s no good poll that has a D +14 electorate and Biden +6 recall. That’s not about priors, that just makes no sense. It’s false equivalence to just throw these in the average and frankly no better than junk GCB polls from Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

How is Biden+6 unreasonable? That's like 2 points off from 2020, not terribly ludicrous for an RV poll. (Parenthetically, I've always found the party registration metric pretty useless; I've seen it used more to discount polls people don't like than to provide any actual insights.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Friday I guess they will release the final batch still no SC Gov poll but I am guessing McMaster 49/41

[2016]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

But I was told that nobody on the right watched the speech...

[2016]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

But I was told that nobody on the right watched the speech...

Regardless if the right watched the Speech LIVE or not. It was all over the News on FOX, OANN, NEWSMAX, etc.

Democrats like you still don't get it that there is a hidden Trump Vote who can come out at will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

But I was told that nobody on the right watched the speech...

Regardless if the right watched the Speech LIVE or not. It was all over the News on FOX, OANN, NEWSMAX, etc.

Democrats like you still don't get it that there is a hidden Trump Vote who can come out at will.

Lol, we won AK and NY 19 what happened to the hidden Trump vote have you seen the polls today the Ds are solidify the 303 blue wall the Rs haven't cracked the blue wall since 2016 and Hillary they won VA in 2021 not 2022 in a 2 pt race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I have said I want Ryan, Beasley and DEMINGS to win but we might end up with Barnes, Fetterman and McMullin only in a 225/210RH and 52/47/1 Sen, replicate 303 blue 🔵🔵🔵

That's why I still have Ryan, DEMINGS and Beasley winning too I am rooting for them even though it's a 303 map

[GeorgiaModerate]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

But I was told that nobody on the right watched the speech...

Regardless if the right watched the Speech LIVE or not. It was all over the News on FOX, OANN, NEWSMAX, etc.

Democrats like you still don't get it that there is a hidden Trump Vote who can come out at will.

On the contrary, after 2016 and 2020 I'm quite sure that hidden Trump voters do exist.  However, what I haven't seen is the "Trump Vote" come out of hiding when Trump isn't on the ballot (2018, 2021 GA runoffs, special elections this year).

[2016]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

But I was told that nobody on the right watched the speech...

Regardless if the right watched the Speech LIVE or not. It was all over the News on FOX, OANN, NEWSMAX, etc.

Democrats like you still don't get it that there is a hidden Trump Vote who can come out at will.

On the contrary, after 2016 and 2020 I'm quite sure that hidden Trump voters do exist.  However, what I haven't seen is the "Trump Vote" come out of hiding when Trump isn't on the ballot (2018, 2021 GA runoffs, special elections this year).

True, they haven't always come out BUT given how bad of a turn the Country did in the last 20 Months under Biden I am pretty convinced that they will come out. Too much is at stake here. Biden has to be reeled in. They will go over "Broken Glass" if they have to on Tuesday to vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs haven't cracked the blue wall and have lost the PVI even in 2016 does 2016 know when the last time Rs won the popular vote it was 2014 they won it 50/45 and 2010 we won it 50/45 in every other EDAY

Fox news has the power Rankings at 51/49 D Senate Fetterman is gonna win that's 51/50 seats and we win WI and/or GA for 52

If we win OH, NC and FL it's probably a 218(217 D H that's why Pelosi stayed on it's gonna be Minority Leader H.Jeffries with a 225/210 RH and 52/48 S or SPEAKER PELOSI 218/217DH and 52+seats in the S

Either way it's a 50% chance of Divided Control 40% chance of Secular Trifecta and only 10% R Congress

[wbrocks67]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

[It’s so Joever]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

I would have to check the new district lines but yeah I’m not sure this is saying what he thinks it is.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

I would have to check the new district lines but yeah I’m not sure this is saying what he thinks it is.

new district was Biden +1

[It’s so Joever]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

I would have to check the new district lines but yeah I’m not sure this is saying what he thinks it is.

new district was Biden +1

Alright I'm guessing Slotkin overperformed/would overperform a bit even in a 2020 environment but this still is not a good "own", and I am not sure why. Like if anything, this is the type of poll I would expect from a D hack, not someone clearly trying to own the libs.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

I would have to check the new district lines but yeah I’m not sure this is saying what he thinks it is.

new district was Biden +1

Alright I'm guessing Slotkin overperformed/would overperform a bit even in a 2020 environment but this still is not a good "own", and I am not sure why. Like if anything, this is the type of poll I would expect from a D hack, not someone clearly trying to own the libs.

"Haha! looks like this midterm environment with an unpopular president is going to be fairly neutral! checkmate libtards!"

[does finger guns, moonwalks out of room]

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen drops their final(?) GCB poll - R+5

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588552860362747907

[Devils30]

Rasmussen drops their final(?) GCB poll - R+5

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588552860362747907

They had R+1 in 2018 as their final poll.

[bilaps]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

If Slotkin is tied Dems ARE in big trouble. You can't just watch races based on presidential result in the district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

If Slotkin is tied Dems ARE in big trouble. You can't just watch races based on presidential result in the district.

Yes. Slotkin is much stronger than generic D. This is very bad

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty interesting - it was taken all across the month of October (sample size is insane), but what is the most interesting is that every one of the people who was interviewed didn't get polled on "generic" D or R, they got polled on their specific congress person in their district.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1588224064463716354

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is pretty interesting - it was taken all across the month of October (sample size is insane), but what is the most interesting is that every one of the people who was interviewed didn't get polled on "generic" D or R, they got polled on their specific congress person in their district.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1588224064463716354

For a little bit of context, the CCES is -the- gold standard poll in political science academia among professors who study Congress and US public opinion.  It is data that I used in my own PhD dissertation. 

The poll is in two waves: they do a weighted invitational online sample of 30,000-50,000 respondents in the month before every election cycle, and then they re-interview them after the election.  They will publish results that can be broken down by individual state and district, and they include a lot of policy questions, etc.  But these won't be available until well after the 2nd wave is complete.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

CCES is one survey where you really -can- dig into the crosstabs even for demographically small groups because the sample size is so large.  A couple interesting things I noticed:

- Republicans lead among "Independents" (Party ID) 45-37, but Dems lead among "Moderates" (Ideology) 52-32.

- The racial breakdown is pretty sensible, unlike a lot of polls we've seen:
-- Whites are 48-42 GOP
-- Blacks are 76-9 Dem
-- Hispanics are 49-36 Dem
-- Asians are 60-25 Dem
The one that caught my eye is the "other" racial category, which is 51-34 GOP, substantially more Republican than White voters! Who are these people?  They can't just be biracial.  I've seen this on a few other polls, but always just dismissed it as a tiny sample.

- The age gap is pretty much what I expected: 65+ are GOP+9 while 18-44 are Dem+21.
- But a smaller gender gap than in 2020 from what I can tell: Men are GOP+5, Women are Dem+11

- Voters who "somewhat disapprove" of Biden are Dem+18!

[It’s so Joever]

CCES is one survey where you really -can- dig into the crosstabs even for demographically small groups because the sample size is so large.  A couple interesting things I noticed:

- Republicans lead among "Independents" (Party ID) 45-37, but Dems lead among "Moderates" (Ideology) 52-32.

- The racial breakdown is pretty sensible, unlike a lot of polls we've seen:
-- Whites are 48-42 GOP
-- Blacks are 76-9 Dem
-- Hispanics are 49-36 Dem
-- Asians are 60-25 Dem
The one that caught my eye is the "other" racial category, which is 51-34 GOP, substantially more Republican than White voters! Who are these people?  They can't just be biracial.  I've seen this on a few other polls, but always just dismissed it as a tiny sample.

- The age gap is pretty much what I expected: 65+ are GOP+9 while 18-44 are Dem+21.
- But a smaller gender gap than in 2020 from what I can tell: Men are GOP+5, Women are Dem+11

- Voters who "somewhat disapprove" of Biden are Dem+18!

That Indy lead should terrify Dems.