2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

All hail our totally amazing and not at all communist/anti-American overlords. God bless Fox, please don’t hurt me.

[It’s so Joever]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never

You will be crying in your basement come November when Democrats will have big losses as will other Democrats. And your hyperbolic Predictions will be "Rebuked".

He’s OC so chill.

[It’s so Joever]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never

You will be crying in your basement come November when Democrats will have big losses as will other Democrats. And your hyperbolic Predictions will be "Rebuked".

He’s OC so chill.

Interesting when you look at the ABC Poll Voters do not seem too much interested what happens in the Ukraine now. Top Issues are Economy & Inflation. Voters giving Republicans a 19-Point lead (54/35) over Democrats on the Economy. That is very problematic for Biden & Democrats.

Didn’t the poll stop being conducted on the 24th?

[It’s so Joever]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

[It’s so Joever]

Money doesn’t vote for f**ks sake.

[It’s so Joever]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

[It’s so Joever]

Here's the CBS/YouGov battleground tracker - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/

They also have a new LV poll for GCB at R+2, 45-43.

The latest poll seems modeled towards an R+4 electorate, which is what they expect right now in terms of turnout in Nov.

RED WAVE COMING

[It’s so Joever]

41-41 is practically useless, but at least it's another trendpoint for Ds from their last poll

It's weird how the undecideds are increasing....you wonder if some of these pollsters get D+6 but are scared to release the poll.

This is clown level conspiracy stuff.

[It’s so Joever]

2014.pdf downloading 30% complete

[It’s so Joever]

Nate Cohn confirmed in a new NYT write up today that NYT/Siena is in the field right now.

He's also launching a new polls/election email newsletter where they'll do something similar to 2020 where they let us know what polls are coming soon. Sounds like they're definitely gonna do a bunch of state polling like that year which is nice.

He better just not provide us with more 43-40 sh*t lol.

After 2020, I am very skeptical of their ability to gauge the electorate.

[It’s so Joever]

GCB showing Rs up again in RCP. I TOLD YOU ALL THIS WOULD BE 2014.

[It’s so Joever]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

They are fine polls are fundamentally more flawed this year.

[It’s so Joever]

Glad to see Dems are in good shape in PA-17.

DeLuzio outraised Shaffer by double in Q3 - $1.46M to $720K

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1581358010718224384

These #s for PA-06 are also painful for the GOP

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1581272551611072513

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/16/blue-state-democrats-midterms-oregon

The GOP gaslighting continues. Does anyone really think NY-17 is in play after NY-19 this summer? I guess if the R+8 pollster in NY-19 did a poll here they can show it a dead heat.

I don't know what will happen but there's a significant chance GOP will waste a lot of money in seats they lose by 9%. Kraushaar thinks Dobbs can't matter in a blue state with abortion rights protected, look at MN-1 as well on this.

Also, some of these college graduates who were 20-24 years old when Obama won in 2008 are now entering their mid to late 30s and becoming high propensity voters for Ds.

You are about this be proven so wrong it will be glorious.

[It’s so Joever]

Dread it, hide from it, the GOP dictatorship arrives the same. Anyone want to share a cell?

[It’s so Joever]

Hey Alben, how is that Selzer poll looking?

[It’s so Joever]

Gotta love how WBrocks trusts a poll with so many undecideds versus a poll with only a few. Such an innovative thinker in the polling field!

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways remember when I said this would be 2014? Well I continue to be right on this.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m sure when the race first started I might’ve assumed Massachusetts voters would do what they’ve done for years - make the correct choice when it comes to the Kennedy’s.

However it was ME who - before a single poll showed Markey ahead said something to the effect of “I’m on the ground and this doesn’t look like a Kennedy win to me - Im sick to my stomach but I honestly think Markey is going to win this race from what I’ve seen”

I was wrong about Georgia in ‘20 most especially and Nevada in ‘18 but for the most part - I’ve been pretty spot on most races

I can't speak as to the accuracy of your predictions because I don't keep track of most, but I'd assume the reason most people are frustrated is that hyper-pessimism is exhausting and depressing. Our country's political crisis is unsettling enough without persistent catastrophizing.

Once you've made your perspective on polling known (that one party will over or underperform due to X, Y, or Z), it's just sort of dumping anxiety onto other people.

What is pessimistic, exhausting, and depressing about it? Around half the country will either be pleased with the result or neutral about it, if Forumlurker's prediction comes true.

Oh they won’t be very happy in the longterm. But that is a problem for later…

[It’s so Joever]

CNBC has R+2 on GCB, 48-46

Was tied in September, R+2 in August

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1583059484192419841?s=46&t=L6ZgwgtdIOnSjYx1PxpqNg

If the GCB average is to be believed, we're essentially back to where we were in August overall, essentially

Awww where is that Biden bounce?

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

You are still a clown because the election hasn't happened yet and we won't know how it will turn out until we get results. Polling is not reliable as we've seen.

If I’m a clown, you must be a trapeze artist with all the mental gymnastics you are going through to justify your increasingly delusional takes.

Rs will have 52 seats in the senate and at least 240 house seats and you still will be insisting that Alaska isn’t 100% in yet.

[It’s so Joever]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

Awww change your mind after you insistence Ds would sweep for weeks? Well at least you have come to reason now.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.