2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GALeftist]

Boy, this place is getting worse and worse the closer election day gets. I understand emotions run high, but not everyone who disagrees with you is besmirching your honor or whatever. Chill out. We'll see what happens in under a week now.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1587894880663207940?cxt=HHwWiIC86eP-qoksAAAA

[Calthrina950]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

It would be nice if you stopped telling other people what they believe.

Stating a fact that it is a outlier isn't telling other people what to believe.

It certainly is not, and wbrocks67 has been overconfident about Democratic prospects this year, similar to the level of overconfidence he displayed in 2020. I've said before that Election Day will come and some people will continue to be in denial about the results as they come in.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1587894880663207940

Sharice Davids getting a Lean D rating is a huge relief.

I'm curious about their justification for moving Sherrill though, I haven't noticed anything locally that would indicate she has lost ground. She probably had the best debate of the Kim/Malinowski/Sherrill trio.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1587827254482145284?t=xizXmMMthFrp6q5Ti...

!!!!!! God help us!!!

[SnowLabrador]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

To enact their agenda.

[SnowLabrador]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

To enact their agenda.

I guess I should revise that to: Why would the Democrats want to win the presidency? When you think about it, the Democrats will likely never have a trifecta again after this. They're much better at winning elections when they're the opposition party.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

We have a general consensus among RV, with outliers in two directions:

Polticio/MC: D+5

NewsNation: R+1
CNN: R+1
YouGov: tied
Marist: tied

Quinnipiac: R+4

A lot of the other variation lies within LV models

The Split Ticket guys have a "nonpartisan" poll aggregator that has it around R+0.4 I think right now. I've said for a while now I think the overall average is close to a tie, and that seems to be about right right now.

Prepare for a +5 R year given your track record.

[SnowLabrador]

Also, another pattern I've noticed: The Democrats do very well, until it's time for people to vote. Then they always underperform expectations. At some point you need to stop blaming the party and start blaming the voters.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Boy, this place is getting worse and worse the closer election day gets. I understand emotions run high, but not everyone who disagrees with you is besmirching your honor or whatever. Chill out. We'll see what happens in under a week now.

But when you were right all along about early voting in Nevada, that gives you something to brag about at Thanksgiving dinner. 

[soundchaser]

Boy, this place is getting worse and worse the closer election day gets. I understand emotions run high, but not everyone who disagrees with you is besmirching your honor or whatever. Chill out. We'll see what happens in under a week now.

But when you were right all along about early voting in Nevada, that gives you something to brag about at Thanksgiving dinner. 

I remember walking in to extended family Thanksgiving after the 2016 election and being greeted with just the words "bad decision." Not a great year!

[Alben Barkley]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

There is no way in hell you're not a textbook concern troll.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1587939553230426113

REAL

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1587948480361807874

REAL

What does this has to do with ratings recruitment and fundraising?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1587939553230426113

REAL

What does this has to do with ratings recruitment and fundraising?

Oops. I posted the wrong tweet. Corrected.

[wbrocks67]

Look, if we're gonna get trash from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and IA injected into the average, then Big Village is welcome too!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1588154801753395203?t=O18vMnoAG3YgSfba8E9Xd...

[Unelectable Bystander]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588185745671405569

[wbrocks67]

The YouGov/Yahoo one also has D+2, 49-47, among those "already voted/will definitely or probably vote"

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588185745671405569

D +14 sample..

Interesting.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588185745671405569

D +14 sample..

Interesting.

However, the vote recall for 2020 is Biden +6, so the Independent sample being more GOP leaning makes up for that.

If you account for it being +1.5D too much over 2020, you get closer to the tie that YouGov/Economist found.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conservative users think Rs are the majority no they're not they lost the PVI last time 80/75M

Not only that Ds are outnumbering Rs in Early voting 47/35% because of blue states CA, NY

We won 303 50/45 percent last Time GCB is mimicking that

[GALeftist]

I'm pretty much done caring about polls for now, but one thing I will say is that weighting polls more heavily based on how closely they hew to your priors is pretty asinine and no better than just ignoring polls altogether. It's one thing if it contradicts the fundamentals by some ludicrous amount, like that rumored poll that showed that Thune was in danger or whatever, but you shouldn't just chuck polls like that YouGov one.