2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

She should just run in the new SF sink the GOP will create to shore up the Gimenez and Salazar

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

VA-10 is not flipping yall.
But I could see anything Biden +12-16 could hold some surprise flips

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

CLF endorses 11 candidates as "Trailblazers": https://news.yahoo.com/top-outside-group-backing-house-115934976.html

Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
Esther King (IL-17)
Amanda Adkins (KS-03)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
Tom Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Morgan Luttrell (TX-08)
Monica De La Cruz Hernandez (TX-15)
Wesley Hunt (TX-38)
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)

What part of KS Supreme Court is 5-2 D do these people not understand?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/tsspangler/status/1478407772349898753?s=20

Hopefully he wins the primary he would be a lot weaker than Schuette

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Meagan_Flynn/status/1479163357223690247

We deserve to lose

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1504780085152423937
LMAO

Thats it. I'm going to run for DNC chair in 2025 and fire all these people /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/516971-gov-desantis-map-reshapes-tampa-bay-and-eliminates-a-battleground/

Florida gerrymander causes a bit of a shuffle. Democrats now have to debate if its worth trying for FL 13th which would be Trump +7.

Bilrakis will run for the Pasco county seat instead of the Pinellas seat which would still be swingy even if a hard pull for Democrats.

It's going to be struck down so the point is moot. We probably get something like the house map

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1526155757078474753?t=YLM9h_oMn0yIORJuI2GVrQ&...

Congrats to Mike Garcia on his re election in 2022!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Don't gaslight. You know Marist has been egregiously wrong several times. Remember Cunningham +9?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/republican-esther-joy-king-leading-17th-congressional-district-fundraising/article_b8355674-81c0-5c3b-8b29-4b56adb13157.amp.html

By the way for some reason esther joy King is a really good fundraiser for this biden +7 seat in Illinois. Also for some reason IL Dems left this seat really weak.

If it turns out to be a red wave I think it will be characterized by this seat flipping and not being particularly close due to turbo-charged trends and getting no turnout from Rockford

There aren't that many trends in this seat. Replacing Rurals/Tazewell with more of East Rockford/McClean makes it much more stagnant.
One advantage Democrats have is that their main leading candidate is a weatherman although the bonus for being one will probably be reduced because the of the gerrymander streching across multiple media markets.

You don't think Litesa Wallace will win?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1529904628837625857?s=20&t=65lyNf...

Weed party on MN 2nd.

It would have flipped anyways

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

Except it didn't in 2018 or even 2014 or really any election without Trump. Sometimes even underestimated Democrats. And the crosstabs support it (terrible Biden approvals among young Democratic voters for instance). Like, some of the very same polls finding Biden deep underwater are also finding Democratic candidates comfortably ahead. Literally the exact same polls. How else do you explain that? It's not "hackery" to logically analyze the numbers instead of just knee jerk dooming.

Yes it did in 2018, 2014. In 2014 Joni Ernst, Bruce Rauner, Thom Tillis, Rick Scott, Paul LePage and countless others overperformed their polling. In 2018, DeSantis was behind in most polls, sometimes by 5 points or more and still won. Scott Walker was behind by 5-7 points and lost by like 1-2. Need I go on?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes, Doomers were so correct that Trump had the 2020 election in the bag, and that 2018 was going to be a bad year for Democrats… Oh wait.

It’s one thing to say “take the polls with a grain of salt. They could be wrong or Republicans could gain again and have a good year after all.” That’s a perfectly reasonable take, and I’m guessing one of those two things ends up being the case.

It’s another entirely to act as though you’re positive everything will go wrong, mock anyone who go disagrees, bump threads mocking optimistic predictions while not admiring your mistakes and adjusting for them in any meaningful way. This is why Doomers are so insufferable. The persistence and (unearned) overconfidence makes it hard to take them seriously. And saying that Doomers were “almost right” in 2020 is like saying those of us sure that Bevin would win in 2019 were “almost right” or would’ve been right if Bevin had won by 0.1%. Being concerned about the possibility of bad results or merely thinking they will happen is one thing. Insisting that they will and that it’s absurd to predict otherwise is something else entirely.

Predicting multiple cycles should teach anyone that the only thing anyone can predict with confidence is that being overconfident about your predictions is a sure fire way to end up with egg on your face, sooner or later.

Except the bloomers(including myself) mocked people too. They dismissed and were outright hostile towards anyone who didn't believe 2020 would be another d wave year

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Imagine still taking Q pac seriously
And I would say that if they had R+10 too, they have weird GOP skewed polls occasionally too

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

Didn’t they underestimate NY-19 by 13%?

Yep lol

That's my point, they suck. They've overestimated democrats before too. They are like Q pac

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1567242440536649728

Most interesting is who is not getting any spending.

I can see GA going R before AZ but PA is far less likely to go R than AZ lol. If your spending on PA you should be spending on AZ too. Rick Scott/NRSC has been a joke this cycle

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New Crystal Ball rating changes:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-7-2022/

AK-AL: Safe Republican > Toss-up
MI-03: Toss-up > Leans Democratic
WA-08: Toss-up > Leans Democratic

Even I think these are reasonable. Mi 03 flips unless it's the worst GOP Tsunami in recent history which I think we can rule out. Also GOP voters really screwed up in WA 08. Dunn would have been favored for sure

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1568248439816835073

Yall can roll your eyes at MT Treasurer all you want but he was spot on about the NRCC/Republucan leadership! What a bunch of clown! If it's really a "neutral" environment, Cuellar is more likely to win by double digits than lose lol! He's got massive crossover appeal!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not sure why they're wasting that much in VA-07.

No kidding! It would take a tsunami to take out Spanberger. Not even a strong gop year could push a disaster like Vega over the line

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

2014.pdf downloading 30% complete

2014 is actually a fitting comparison. In my opinion, GOP is going to do really well in some seats Biden won by a decent margin(RI 02, OR 06, IL 06, etc) and yet they will underperform in several others(ME 02 PA Sen AZ Sen etc)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1569682704844689408

I suspect Garcia Holmes and DeGroot will do well but I can't see them actually winning. To me, the only two that GOP has a shot in are CT 02 and MD 06, Gottheimer is too strong. But the last two are just LOL. I wanted to burst out laughing

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

PA-05 is a Biden +32 district.... Are they serious.

Movement conservatives(like Tom Emmer) have contempt for their own voters. They'd rather win back those educated suburbanites than be associated with wwc in MI-8 for example