2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Devils30]

There is still weird Democratic strength with moderates and independents in the AZ, WI FOX polls and even the PA one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those NV polls are wrong and WI polls but I am glad we have Charlie Crist leading DeSantis if we can knock off DeSantis, do t forget he underpolls when it's time to vote he won by 0.5 last time, he never was gonna win by 15 like Abbott

It's called underestimate the blk and Latinos and females vote in Wzi, OH, NC, NV and FL as I always said

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

There is still weird Democratic strength with moderates and independents in the AZ, WI FOX polls and even the PA one.

Perhaps because Mark Kelly has a moderate persona and Masters is a Twitter edgelord?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1587759465801072640?t=Ec19gzzShuNsokqWUKd...

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1587751791395045376?t=NUM_1qnF54v9_QUqJBW...

[2016]

@AncestralDemocrat.
Herding is strong, isn't it?
Once again it confirms to me that CNN & NPR have very faulty Pollsters. Why not stricking with your guns and predict a Democratic Wave like you have been all year? I am disgusted by this herding from them. I will disregard their Polls regardless if D's or R's are up.

The Point is: Republicans were never behind for the entire Election Cycle.

[Unelectable Bystander]

@AncestralDemocrat.
Herding is strong, isn't it?
Once again it confirms to me that CNN & NPR have very faulty Pollsters. Why not stricking with your guns and predict a Democratic Wave like you have been all year? I am disgusted by this herding from them. I will disregard their Polls regardless if D's or R's are up.

The Point is: Republicans were never behind for the entire Election Cycle.

I have to think that Morning Consult did the same thing as you mentioned.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That FL Listener poll gotta worry Rs and as close as that Gov race is Lombardo by 2 over Sisolak I seriously doubt with Early voting LAXALT is anywhere near 5 and WI poll lied too Barnes is leading in a Clarity poll 48/46 I doubt he is is down in every other poll we will see a MQK poll

Polls lie as I said it's a 52/44 Senate map now since Crist is leading in FL Tossups are FL, OH, NC and UT

I don't go by GCB the Early voting Favs Ds 47/35% as I have said many times already , there are more registered Ds in this country we won the PVI 80/75M last time

[2016]

@AncestralDemocrat.
Herding is strong, isn't it?
Once again it confirms to me that CNN & NPR have very faulty Pollsters. Why not stricking with your guns and predict a Democratic Wave like you have been all year? I am disgusted by this herding from them. I will disregard their Polls regardless if D's or R's are up.

The Point is: Republicans were never behind for the entire Election Cycle.

I have to think that Morning Consult did the same thing as you mentioned.

Yes, Morning Consult did the same thing. They showed Democrats up 5 a Week ago and now it's tied to make them look good. The Polling Industry is broken. I admire Trafalgar, Insider Advantage or Emerson even more because they are sticking to their guns EVEN if they almost certainly will get some Races wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar has Jensen and Ronchetti winning and Zeldin tied with HOCHUL, HOCHUL is up 54/45 and Walz and GRISHAM up 50/42

Trafalgar and Emerson do Phone polls while others do internet polls phone polls oversample too many married people and internet polls oversample too many single person I did the same polls in college but back then it wasn't internet it was paper surveys. But I am not that old

The BV Gov poll is right it's gonna be 51/49 Sisolak but the Sen race is wrong CCM will win 51/49 like Phillips Academy had Sisolak and CCM winning and the Telemundo poll

NO WAY IS LAXALT UP 5 AND LOMBARDO IS ONLY WINNING 51/49

[Devils30]

Everyone is herding at R +2-4. It may very well be right but it’s not methodically sound.

I’m not sure Dem turnout will bd as anemic as some expect (see the specials and KS referendum) but we need a 4 point miss for Ds to keep both houses.

[wbrocks67]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

[Calthrina950]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

[Pollster]

"Republican pollsters are flooding the zone with pro-GOP polls to skew the averages" is technically true (and these polls may wind up being "accurate" even if they aren't conducted well, the two aren't necessarily correlated) but the bigger warning sign is that Democratic candidates/groups aren't responding to it with their own numbers. And I guarantee you, they haven't stopped polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

It would be nice if you stopped telling other people what they believe.

[Calthrina950]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

It would be nice if you stopped telling other people what they believe.

He clearly believes that Democrats are going to sweep next week.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1587827254482145284?t=xizXmMMthFrp6q5Ti...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

It would be nice if you stopped telling other people what they believe.

Stating a fact that it is a outlier isn't telling other people what to believe.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is it weird how many of the polls are finding such a small age gap? I realize it's usually unwise to nitpick crosstabs, but this trend is showing up in so many polls.  In the Q poll, 18-34 is only D+4, an 65+ is only R+1.

[wbrocks67]

"Republican pollsters are flooding the zone with pro-GOP polls to skew the averages" is technically true (and these polls may wind up being "accurate" even if they aren't conducted well, the two aren't necessarily correlated) but the bigger warning sign is that Democratic candidates/groups aren't responding to it with their own numbers. And I guarantee you, they haven't stopped polling.

It doesn't really seem to be a lot of Republican internals, though, per se. We've seen a few from Walker and the NRSC, but the majority that I think most people are thinking of are Trafalgar, IA (for American Greatness, etc.), Wick, co/efficient, that usually do work for GOP clients but aren't necessarily GOP internals.

[S019]

I think at this point, it’s very clear undecideds are breaking Republican and we’re headed for a Republican leaning year. Incredibly disappointing, but it was always going to be an uphill battle for Democrats to outrun such harsh fundamentals and we should be fortunate that the party isn’t on track to be totally wiped out and reduced to like 180 seats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

It would be nice if you stopped telling other people what they believe.

Stating a fact that it is a outlier isn't telling other people what to believe.

It’s a fact that it’s an outlier. But Calthrina then had to add the second part of the sentence, which is what I have an issue with.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist tied among RV (48-48) and LV (49-49)

Shows how groups will shape the race - Q-pac's universe has Ds only +4 among 18-34 year olds and Rs +4 with Latinos

YouGov's universe has Ds at +27 among 18-29 year olds and +29 among Latinos

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/2a0eir3enp/econTabReport.pdf

The latter is closer to what you'd expect, given recent elections, but we shall see!

[Devils30]

The only way Ds defy history is if these models with much greater GOP enthusiasm are off and in fact younger Dems show up. The KS referendum offers some optimism in this respect and a lot of white college voters are high propensity.

Still, outside of abortion people are just not on the Dems side with the most salient issues. The Ds have gone way too far to the left on energy and crime to appease their progressive base in Cali and NYC.

Still, the R+3 everyone has this morning reeks of herding. You would expect more tied and some R+6 instead of R+2-4 everywhere.

[wbrocks67]

We have a general consensus among RV, with outliers in two directions:

Polticio/MC: D+5

NewsNation: R+1
CNN: R+1
YouGov: tied
Marist: tied

Quinnipiac: R+4

A lot of the other variation lies within LV models

The Split Ticket guys have a "nonpartisan" poll aggregator that has it around R+0.4 I think right now. I've said for a while now I think the overall average is close to a tie, and that seems to be about right right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We have a general consensus among RV, with outliers in two directions:

Polticio/MC: D+5

NewsNation: R+1
CNN: R+1
YouGov: tied
Marist: tied

Quinnipiac: R+4

A lot of the other variation lies within LV models

The Split Ticket guys have a "nonpartisan" poll aggregator that has it around R+0.4 I think right now. I've said for a while now I think the overall average is close to a tie, and that seems to be about right right now.

Yes, they currently have it as 46.8-46.4 R.  You can read their methodology (which IMO is pretty good) at the aggregate link https://split-ticket.org/2022-nonpartisan-generic-ballot-aggregate/.