PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Paying extra attention to the African-American vote is important for PA Dems, it's no harm done if it encourages extra turnout. Especially when you look at the $$$ Fetterman has raised.

Right, which is my point. Any PA dem should be doing this - running ads on stations that cater to black audiences. That's not proof that Fetterman is "struggling" with them. Obama doing ads on there is probably way more effective for Fetterman than him coming to do a rally.

Obama certainly is among the best surrogates Fetterman has for that purpose.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oz on tape responding to the puppy allegations - not a great answer!

I wanna see the crosstabs on those happiness numbers!

Quaker Research crosstabs on this say that Black responders happiness grew by 32 points, Whites decreased by 1.5 points (decimals are more accurate!) and Hispanics increased by 4.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

Fetterman is still going to overwhelmingly win the black vote, but Oz's campaign has been trying to take advantage of the jogging incident against him. And I've read reports that the Fetterman campaign was concerned about black turnout in Philadelphia specifically.

That's not proof, though. That's what one campaign is doing. If you're going to say something so concretely, please back up with facts and evidence. I'm very open to what you're trying to say, but just back it up. Do you have those reports?

Here's a list of articles addressing what I've said:

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/decision-2022/fetterman-oz-vie-for-black-voters-in-close-pa-senate-race/3387748/

https://www.yahoo.com/video/black-voter-turnout-could-possibly-140052919.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/pennsylvania-midterms-fetterman-oz-black-voters/

Now, I'm not saying that Oz has superior voter outreach than Fetterman. In fact, two of the articles mention a black voter who wasn't sold on Oz's appeals, although they don't particularly approve of Biden and have been contemplating sitting the election out. But what I am saying is that black voter turnout in Philadelphia is crucial to Democratic chances, and if Oz can even depress that turnout somewhat, it will help him.

[Horus]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

By running up the margins in Southeast Philly and Fishtown, not by doing well in Black areas.

[Calthrina950]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

By running up the margins in Southeast Philly and Fishtown, not by doing well in Black areas.

Kenyatta probably won the black vote in Philadelphia, but not by enough to defeat Fetterman.

[wbrocks67]

(was heard on the biggest "urban" station in Philly, 105.3 WDAS. Caters more towards older black listeners)

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1583245035042021377

This is not surprising, since Fetterman has been struggling with black voters since the primary and is having problems with generating turnout in Philadelphia, which he narrowly won over Kenyatta.

Where is the proof of this, though? He won Philly just barely in the primary because Kenyatta was from Philadelphia.

By running up the margins in Southeast Philly and Fishtown, not by doing well in Black areas.

I don't think you're getting what I'm saying - I agree. I'm saying it's more likely that Fetterman did "worse" in the more black areas in the primary not because of his weakness, but because of Kenyatta's strengths.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The issue with the Black turnout dooming is that they will turn out in full force for Shapiro, so most will vote for Fetterman even if they wouldn't turn out if it was just him.

[Ferguson97]

The issue with the Black turnout dooming is that they will turn out in full force for Shapiro, so most will vote for Fetterman even if they wouldn't turn out if it was just him.

Yeah they’d have to really dislike Fetterman to leave it blank, and I just don’t see evidence for that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oz on tape responding to the puppy allegations - not a great answer!

I wanna see the crosstabs on those happiness numbers!

Quaker Research crosstabs on this say that Black responders happiness grew by 32 points, Whites decreased by 1.5 points (decimals are more accurate!) and Hispanics increased by 4.

https://quakerresearch.com/About/
I made up "Quaker Research" as a name for a polling firm, but there actually is a group called that. LOL.

[jd7171]

One place I feel Fetterman should go to before the election is Centre county. He should do an event at Penn State. Centre County is a place Fetterman has to win. He needs to at least match Biden here if he's going to win (Biden won by 5 points). Being a college town could net Fetterman a bigger margin if he gets the vote out.

[wbrocks67]

Obama cut an ad for Fetterman.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1583504501826523137

[Crumpets]

Atlas brain in the wild.

https://twitter.com/NickyFrank30/status/1583532803001823232

[SnowLabrador]

Atlas brain in the wild.

https://twitter.com/NickyFrank30/status/1583532803001823232

(To the tune of "Surrender" by Billy Talent):

Surrender (every vote, every call, every text)
Surrender (any hope that you can have safe sex)
Surrender (I wonder what right's gonna be next)
Surrender (And then we will all be like Big Tex)
Surrender...democracy.

[wbrocks67]

One place I feel Fetterman should go to before the election is Centre county. He should do an event at Penn State. Centre County is a place Fetterman has to win. He needs to at least match Biden here if he's going to win (Biden won by 5 points). Being a college town could net Fetterman a bigger margin if he gets the vote out.

Yeah I'm kind of surprised Fetterman has not tried to do more college rallies, given he's such a strong candidate with young voters.

[Orwell]

One place I feel Fetterman should go to before the election is Centre county. He should do an event at Penn State. Centre County is a place Fetterman has to win. He needs to at least match Biden here if he's going to win (Biden won by 5 points). Being a college town could net Fetterman a bigger margin if he gets the vote out.

Yeah I'm kind of surprised Fetterman has not tried to do more college rallies, given he's such a strong candidate with young voters.

Might be more a strategy of "I'm at this % among young voters" no need to campaign towards them, even if it might benefit turnout

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This makes Barnes deficit to Johnson not so bad everyome kept saying Barnes was a sure loser and Fetterman is a winner now both are trailing and Tim Ryan is closer now than both Ryan is losing by 3 and Barnes and Fetterman are losing by 5, it's not gonna end up that way but stop saying now that Fetterman is gonna overperform Barnes if it's a blue wall we are gonna win both WI and PA

[jd7171]

One place I feel Fetterman should go to before the election is Centre county. He should do an event at Penn State. Centre County is a place Fetterman has to win. He needs to at least match Biden here if he's going to win (Biden won by 5 points). Being a college town could net Fetterman a bigger margin if he gets the vote out.

Yeah I'm kind of surprised Fetterman has not tried to do more college rallies, given he's such a strong candidate with young voters.

The odd thing is he did the IUP rally. I can't think of a candidate who did a rally there. It just seems odd because of the fact that Penn State is a much bigger school. Also, Centre County is a bigger county and growing in population than Indiana and a much more important county to Dems. Between Pittsburgh and Harrisburg it's the only county growing at all.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I saw one of those Citizens for Sanity ads last night. I said “wow” out loud at the end because it was so egregiously racist. Would make the Willie Horton ad blush.

[wbrocks67]

I saw one of those Citizens for Sanity ads last night. I said “wow” out loud at the end because it was so egregiously racist. Would make the Willie Horton ad blush.

Yep. It's insane how much money they are pumping into those.

[wbrocks67]

Pollster who does contracts with Democratic groups has the race similar to the last few recent polls, with Fetterman +3, 50-47

Same poll has Shapiro +8, 52-44

Fetterman fav 48/48 and Oz fav is 39/58.

https://twitter.com/NickyFrank30/status/1583492403662848001

[wbrocks67]

As if outside GOP spending $60M+ on this race wasn't enough, Oz is now having to dump more of his own money into the race

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1583623107864309760

[Senator Cris]

Pollster who does contracts with Democratic groups has the race similar to the last few recent polls, with Fetterman +3, 50-47

Same poll has Shapiro +8, 52-44

Fetterman fav 48/48 and Oz fav is 39/58.

https://twitter.com/NickyFrank30/status/1583492403662848001

You forgot to share this information from the same pollsters:

Our Pennsylvania polling has Fetterman ahead and at 50%
(well 49.9996%), but interestingly by a 48-45 margin, his own primary voters think he should've dropped out after the stroke and Lamb wins a rematch 45-41. Would beat Oz 51-42.

Anyways, isn't ">Internals, >D/R partisan polls" the rule?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Easy to say Lamb would beat Oz when he hasn't faced negative press since the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Easy to say Lamb would beat Oz when he hasn't faced negative press since the primary.

There's also probably a feedback loop involved here.  These Fetterman voters are likely feeling nervous because the race has gotten closer, so they may be more inclined to think Lamb would have done better.  If the race hadn't gotten closer, they probably wouldn't feel that way.

[Person Man]

I saw one of those Citizens for Sanity ads last night. I said “wow” out loud at the end because it was so egregiously racist. Would make the Willie Horton ad blush.

Yep. It's insane how much money they are pumping into those.

This thing is not only abhorrent but really makes you think. If these are this effective, are most people actually racist?